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Message
re: Latest Updates: Russia-Ukraine Conflict
Posted on 7/1/24 at 11:53 am to No Colors
Posted on 7/1/24 at 11:53 am to No Colors
quote:
The only thing that has happened in the last two weeks is that the countries supporting Ukraine met and decided that as a condition for continued support, Ukraine had to lay out in writing a statement for the conditions under which they would be willing to cease hostilities.
What is your interpretation of what has "changed" in the last two weeks?
Nothing has changed, the countries bankrolling one side of this war all just decided that right now was a good time to set an exit strategy and give themselves an off-ramp. Nothing to see here.
0
Posted on 7/1/24 at 11:54 am to VolSquatch
quote:
The US could strong arm both sides into ending the fighting at least temporarily. You threaten Russia with more aid if their demands aren't realistic, you threaten Ukraine with no more aid if they don't have realistic demands. You have to give both sides wiggle room to hash it out, but you give both sides non negotiables. Ukraine isn't getting NATO membership or all their territory back, Russia gets Crimea but it has some special legal status like was agreed in the 2022 talks and the current Zelensky government remains in power until elections.... it doesn't have to be that exactly, but in that neighborhood seems likely.
But then we have to know what the Trump admin would view as "realistic", and I'm not sure they would have the foresight to come up with something that keeps this from happening again in 10-20 years (though I'm not sure anyone does).
The basic problem with such a plan, as you say, is that Ukraine can't stop fighting without some kind of guarantee that Russia won't attack again as soon as it feels capable. That would be true even if the US were to cut off aid, because the European ability to backstop Ukraine is growing and will grow much more by January, especially with the $50 billion that Ukraine is getting as an advance on interest on frozen Russian assets.
If Ukraine isn't given NATO membership, then the only alternative to give them security is to arm them to the teeth. But if we're going to go to the expense of arming Ukraine to the teeth, why not just give them the weapons now and let them win?
Posted on 7/1/24 at 11:56 am to GOP_Tiger
quote:
If Ukraine isn't given NATO membership, then the only alternative to give them security is to arm them to the teeth. But if we're going to go to the expense of arming Ukraine to the teeth, why not just give them the weapons now and let them win?
The answer there is that we don't want to destabilize Russia 'too much'. Neuter the dog, don't kill it and get a new one.
Posted on 7/1/24 at 1:05 pm to VolSquatch
Posted on 7/1/24 at 2:49 pm to No Colors
quote:
What is your interpretation of what has "changed" in the last two weeks?
Trump is going to win so Zelenskyyyyyyyyy had better try and negotiate a favourable peace deal now before Biden's gone.
Posted on 7/1/24 at 2:51 pm to WestCoastAg
quote:
why is Russia not reciprocating? Why is Russia choosing to prolong the bloodshed when Ukraine is trying to bring peace?
IMO Russia would logically prefer to wait until Trump is back in office, knowing that Zelenskyy left DJT twisting in the wind during his impeachment and also knowing that Trump doesn't view Putin as "Hitler" like Biden does.
Putin's a shrewd cat and he knows that he has the leverage so long as it looks like DJT will become POTUS. Biden is all in on Ukraine and Trump will not GAF about the previous administration's sunk costs - he'll just want to stop wasting money and political capital on it.
This post was edited on 7/1/24 at 2:53 pm
Posted on 7/1/24 at 3:00 pm to SirWinston
is the political talk board so bad that you have to stay here and make this one political?
Posted on 7/1/24 at 3:20 pm to dagrippa
quote:
is the political talk board so bad that you have to stay here and make this one political?
This thread teeters off the rails pretty much daily, but the winner of this election has real ramifications in this war and is important.
Posted on 7/1/24 at 3:50 pm to SirWinston
quote:
Our Generation's Winston Churchill is ready for peace negotiations all of a sudden
Did you read the interview, or just "Tyler Durden's" take on it?
quote:
The only possible negotiations Zelensky envisions would be talks based on his own peace plan calling for full withdrawal from Ukraine, reparations and justice for Russian war crimes.
But what about Trump, who wants to cut off military aid to Ukraine and says the can war can be over in 24 hours? The GOP presidential candidate has said he’d demand a cease-fire from both sides and force them to “negotiate,” effectively giving Putin what he wants and preventing Ukraine from taking back more occupied land. Not to mention that Putin has broken every accord between Russia and Ukraine in the last three decades.
“If Trump has such a model [to end the war in 24 hours], well, everyone would like to finalize the war. Maybe even in one hour would be better,” Zelensky joked. “But if the idea is to give up our territories, no, it will not solve the issue. It will not work; it will not lead to peace [globally] or between Ukraine and Russia.
“What is needed is to give us security. Membership in NATO is good not only for Ukraine; it would provide security for Russia,” Zelensky said. The Ukrainian border would be fixed, no further Russian invasion could cause another war, and “the world wouldn’t be afraid that Putin would come back again.”
LINK
Posted on 7/1/24 at 4:00 pm to SirWinston
quote:
Putin's a shrewd cat
Do you really still believe that?
Posted on 7/1/24 at 4:02 pm to SirWinston
quote:
SirWinston
LINK your articles if you're gonna post them
LINK to the MSN article the ZeroHedge article is based on
quote:
Ukraine can find a model in which solutions can be found according to relevant documents, steps, and modalities. Such a model was first applied on the example of the grain corridor, when Ukraine negotiated not with the blocking hand of Russia, but we negotiated with the UN and Turkey. They, in turn, took the responsibility to negotiate with us in a trilateral agreement, and then sign the corresponding agreement with the Russian side. Yes, it worked, two mirror agreements between the UN and Turkey, and a separate agreement with Russia" - recalled Volodymyr Zelensky in the interview for "The Philadelphia Inquirer".
Although Russia continuously broke and repudiated the agreement, it allowed Kyiv to establish a strong position on the Odesa route. The transport returned to its pre-war state.
Zelensky also mentioned that this approach to dealing with Russia could be applied to territorial integrity, energy, and navigation talks. The Ukrainian president still does not see any other method of dealing with Moscow.
During the same conversation with the American newspaper, Zelensky assessed the situation on the front. - First of all, manpower. They have much more people, and really, we are taking care of our people more - he said.
He added that today, one Ukrainian citizen dies for every six Russians. Previously, this statistic was a ratio of 1 to 4, but after clashes in the Kharkiv direction and around Pokrovske in the Donetsk region, Russian losses have increased.
Zelensky also mentioned that he believes the West should prevent Russians from circumventing sanctions to stop them from producing missiles and drones. At the same time, Europe and the USA could also support Ukraine in producing such weapons independently.
The biggest [current] issue is with glide bombs," said Zelensky. "So you need to search for long-range solutions against their aerodromes where their military aircraft land, which Russia uses to launch glide bombs and missiles. He added that if President Joe Biden permitted Kyiv to use American long-range missiles, such as ATACMS, to strike Russian airfields, these attacks could be halted.
Zelensky specified what victory over the Russian aggressor would mean for him. He envisions "not to allow the full destruction of everything Ukrainian" by Putin.
The President mentioned that Russia's policies and intentions towards Kyiv are evident in the occupied territories. Moscow eliminates the use of the Ukrainian language, combats the Ukrainian Church, and teaching of Ukrainian history. Children are taught that Ukraine was never a rightful state.
Posted on 7/1/24 at 4:37 pm to doubleb
Take this with a huge grain of salt as this is a pro Russian source but the Ukrainians appeared to be idiotic enough to leave at least 6 Su-27s grouped together out in the open when an Iskander hit the airfield. 2 Su-27 are without a doubt destroyed but there’s no telling what the damage really is. To be honest Ukraine deserved this if they are that stupid to leave the few Su-27s they have left out together at the same airbase. Really hope they have a better protection plan for the F-16 or this is all going to be for nothing. Someone needs to be held accountable because supposedly Ukraine knew about a Russian surveillance drone watching the airfield days before the strike and still didn’t do anything to protect the aircraft.
LINK
LINK
Posted on 7/1/24 at 4:42 pm to LSUPilot07
Yes that would be pretty silly for them to leave them like that
Posted on 7/1/24 at 4:46 pm to ticklechain
Posted on 7/1/24 at 4:47 pm to ticklechain
Idiotic considering the Su-27 is a better aircraft than the Mig-29 and they only have a handful left.
Posted on 7/1/24 at 4:47 pm to SirWinston
quote:imaging supporting a side that is prolonging bloodshed. Russia needs to agree to a peaceful end put forth by the Ukrainians
IMO Russia would logically prefer to wait until Trump is back in office
Now
Posted on 7/1/24 at 4:57 pm to TitusCrow
quote:
Did you read the interview, or just "Tyler Durden's" take on it?
C'mon, you know he didn't read the actual interview. SirWinston isn't interested in actually learning anything. He doesn't even care if "Tyler Durden's take" is correct. He just comes here to say anything at all that could boost his minion status.
Posted on 7/1/24 at 5:00 pm to GOP_Tiger
Mate are you MAGA now after the debate?
Posted on 7/1/24 at 5:00 pm to VolSquatch
quote:
The answer there is that we don't want to destabilize Russia 'too much'. Neuter the dog, don't kill it and get a new one.
I have looked into any and everything I can find as far as analysis and arguments for how this is being handled, and all comes to two concerns about one thing:
Nukes.
- that is Russia collapses too hurriedly no one will be able to account for all of the nukes... now look at a map and think about Iran buying them from some rogue newly unpaid silo commander and taking them across the Caspian sea...
- that is Russia collapses too hurriedly, with Putin still in control of the entirety of it... I mean, he's probably a dead man if there's nothing to stop a mob from storming the Kremlin... and is it above him to take millions with him if he's doomed for certain?
Beyond that... we also have to remember that we fight wars completely different than the way Ukraine "CAN!" My buddy who fought in the Ukrainian Army for a year and trained soldiers there before and after talks about that... compared to his experience in Afghanistan during the initial invasion, it was completely different... more like WWI or WWII... no high-tech combined operations. They have neither the training nor equipment and infrastructure to really do that... so, in that regard, we've given them everything they can use and keep operational... but tanks are proving not as useful to them as they are to us because they can't use them combined with air support and all of the stuff that we would.
The biggest thing that hurt Ukraine was the 7 months of aid being held up by the Freedumb caucus. That setback has given Russia the only things it can count as wins, but they have not even been able to maximize on that "lucky" break.
We've looked at what happens to countries whose governments fall... having that happen to the country with (supposedly) the most nukes on the planet should give you a bit of pause.
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