re: Latest Updates: Russia-Ukraine Conflict

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It would seem Trump vs Biden has significant outcome determinative ramifications in terms of "the Russian invasion of Ukraine." Unfortunately, the outcome issue was not effectively broached by the debate mods.

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The participants in the discourse cite the developments surrounding the use and defense of the heavy Ukrainian multicopter drones, which have become known under the collective term "Baba Yaga". These unmanned weapon carriers, which have been continuously developed since the beginning of the conflict and are hardened against electronic measures, have been putting pressure on the Russian armed forces, especially since this spring. The weaknesses of the system in the form of size and sometimes also noise were successfully offset by the Ukrainian side using it at night.

Only with the creation of specially equipped and trained drone defense companies were the Russian armed forces able to effectively counter the threat. These units, which despite their name are mostly only group or maximum platoon strength, were equipped with machine guns, all of which have a thermal targeting device. In addition, the units are made mobile with small all-terrain vehicles (ATVs). Mobility and reaction time are further increased by the fact that the machine guns, mostly PKM type in caliber 7.62 x 54R mm, are mounted on these vehicles and can conduct fire immediately after stopping movement.

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The development outlined so far can be seen as the familiar game between action and reaction, even though there have undoubtedly been several evolutionary steps in UAS within the conflict in terms of hardening against electronic countermeasures. However, recent discussions in Russian Telegram channels suggest that the process has taken on a new quality and has clearly entered the spiral phase.

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According to this, the quadcopters carrying weapons on the Ukrainian side are also protected at night by special FPV drones. These have a thermal imaging device to carry out target reconnaissance and tracking independently. The Russian operational reports speak of at least two accompanying FPV drones per weapon carrier. In the event of fire from the mobile Russian drone defense troops, these are targeted by the night-fighting Ukrainian FPV drones. In addition, the heavy quadcopters are used to deliberately mine the possible approach and departure routes of the Russian drone defense troops from the air in order to hinder their movement and cause further losses. The losses incurred by the Russian drone defense force as a result enable the Baba Yaga drones to be used again in the affected operational area.

Accordingly, the Ukrainian armed forces have documented for the first time, reacted to a defensive success against their unmanned systems and, in addition to technical and tactical changes, also taken organizational measures to maintain the survivability and assertiveness of their own drones. To put it simply, this is another revolution in this war after the drone versus drone battle. Unmanned aircraft are clearly carrying out SEAD missions against drone defenses for the first time, thereby regaining the initiative.

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Agree, but I also think he will be VERY motivated to end this and the Israel conflict just to contrast himself with Biden.

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The Süddeutsche Zeitung looked at a total of 87 military sites in Russia from space.

These include 16 military bases that mainly store tanks, artillery vehicles and armored personnel carriers.

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The SZ used an AI model to count the vehicles identified in the images and for control purposes. The model was trained on the platform of the Swiss company Picterra , which had already helped New York Times journalists analyze bomb craters in the Gaza Strip. The SZ used it to determine the number of armored vehicles from satellite data.

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But the analysis of the satellite images shows that this tank recycling as a method of rearmament will become impossible in the foreseeable future. Precise timelines are difficult to predict. Gustav Gressel, Russia and military expert at the international think tank European Council on Foreign Relations, believes: "We can expect that the material will become a problem for the Russians in about two years." The IISS also expects that Russia will only be able to sustain its war effort at the current intensity for "another two or three years." The think tank Royal United Services Institute ( Rusi ) has reached similar conclusions.

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Despite the insights provided by satellites, more precise forecasts are impossible. For example, it is unclear whether Russian losses will remain as immensely high in the coming years as they are now, or whether Moscow will still be able to procure material outside of Russia, for example. In any case, Putin will not run out of tanks overnight. "I estimate that Russia still has around 3,200 tanks in stock, but the vast majority of them are in a bad condition and require significant repairs," Michael Gjerstad, conflict researcher at the IISS, told the SZ.

There are also uncertainties regarding new production in Russia. Can it be increased? Or is Putin running out of money? The country has dramatically increased its arms industry. Existing factories are working longer, and those that have been shut down have been reactivated. A third of the budget is spent on armaments. According to estimates by Rusi and others, this means that Russia can produce around 1,500 new tanks every year. In addition, there are around 3,000 armored vehicles of various types.

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However, this cannot compensate for the horrendous losses. In 2023, at least 86 percent of the tanks that Russia sent to the front were refurbished tanks from old stocks. Gustav Gressel is certain: "Russia is losing far more equipment than it can replace, and stocks are running out."

So, at least in this respect, it is wrong to say that time is on Putin's side in this war. Russia cannot continue the war indefinitely at the current intensity. "It is therefore important for Ukraine to inflict such high material losses on the Russians that things will become critical for them at some point," says Gressel.

The think tank Rusi concludes: If Ukraine receives the necessary resources to be able to fend off the Russian offensive this year, then it is unlikely that Moscow will be able to make major territorial gains in 2025. From 2026 onwards, Russian combat power will then slowly decline. Ukraine can draw hope from this. But it is also clear that if the Western partners do not provide the country with the necessary help, the country will have lost the war long before then.

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Well if he single handedly "ends" both conflicts, they'll give him the Nobel Peace Prize and rename it the Trump Peace Prize.

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If Trump cuts off aid, Russia ramps up its attacks and begins gaining ground. But it doesn't stop the war. Maybe Ukraine takes some sort of deal. But hostiles will continue at a lower rate before they break out again.

If Ukraine gets everything it needs, then they will eventually cut off Crimea and force Putin into a humiliating retreat. Another million men will die making that happen. And it weakens Russia so much that the whole place starts falling apart. Which leads to more war, secession, invasion, revolution, bloodshed, and general mayhem.

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Wonder what's changed in the last 2 weeks to cause this shift???

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The US could strong arm both sides into ending the fighting at least temporarily.


Nah

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