re: Latest Updates: Russia-Ukraine Conflict

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It's literally just "Don't put enemy missiles or soldiers into Ukraine", "Stop efforts to ban the Russian language", "Don't join anti-Russia military alliances". Eternal 2013 status quo with practically no gains for Russia and total victory for Ukraine as an independent state.

This treaty, if adopted, would have restored Ukraine to the "Get endless free money from Russia" status quo from before the Euromaidan but also wouldn't have stopped them from becoming the EU resource colony they wanted to be. Literally no downsides for Ukraine from a "sovereign nation" POV. No upsides for Russia other than avoiding a war that would have come anyway, only later and with even worse starting positions.

Well at least they weren't planning on pushing the Donbass back into Ukraine. Honestly I'd have expected them to.

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Here's how I see what happened back then:

In response to various announcements about NATO further entrenching in Ukraine, Zelensky threatening to start a nuclear weapons program, AFU preparing for an offensive against the Donbass Republics, and other factors, Putin announces the beginning of the SMO in somewhat vague terms: “demilitarization”, “denazification”, etc. Pretty much anything could afterwards be declared as a fulfillment of these goals.

The Russian Armed Forces enter Ukrainian territory for a glorified police operation, mostly intended as a show of force to cause the Kiev regime to collapse and accept Moscow's diplomatic requirements.

The original plan was to restore the pre-2014 status quo: Ukraine is not a member of any military block, economic relations with Russia are normalized, the influence of radical Ukrainian nationalism is curtailed to protect the rights of the pro-Russian parts of the population. All very simple common sense things.

The Donbass would have been subject to negotiation. Kiev was supposed to accept their independence. I think they would have made the future of the Donbass Republics contingent on how Kiev would behave and keep them in a Transnistria/Abkhazia status as a tool for further negotiations (i.e., “Behave, and you get the Donbass back”).

Crimea was excluded from these negotiations, with an understanding that Russia would keep the territory, but Kiev would not officially recognize this for the time being. Some sort of lease would have been arranged for a land corridor. Maybe a new Russian-built highway/railway or whatever specifically for this purpose.

From a serious, long-term strategic point of view, this would have solved absolutely nothing, because it was founded on the idea that Kiev and the West can be trusted, when it has been clear for a long time that they are fundamentally agreement-incapable.

But for a Russian normie, this would have looked like a victory. There hadn't been that many dead yet, and it would have been absolutely possible to write them off as our dear Brother-Ukrainians, fallen victim to the treacheries of the evil Bandera Nazis, who have been denazified and now everything is great.

The Ukrainian government participated in these peace negotiations, and it accepted the preliminary peace treaty. As part of the peace negotiations, Russia pulled its troops back from Kiev, Nikolayev, Sumy, etc. Lukashenko and Bennett were involved in these peace talks.

But then something went wrong. The Ukrainians murder a high-ranking member of their peace delegation, accusing him of negotiating in the interests of Russia. The Johnson visit happens. Bennett is rebuffed and accused of being a Russian agent, too. Negotiations are called off. The police troops around Kiev (Akhmat in fancy 4x4s, VDV on BMDs covered in St. George's Ribbons, pickups carrying a bunch of pro-Russian Ukrainian bloggers and politicians -- clearly a parade force, an assault on Kiev was never planned).

Then you get, basically.

1) A preliminary peace is negotiated
2) Medinsky, head of the Russian peace delegation, announces the infamous “goodwill gesture”
3) Something happens that causes Kiev to break the agreement, attack Russian forces that are pulling out as part of the negotiation process, murder their own negotiators, etc
4) Kiev fabricates a “massacre” in B***a as a formal reason to end negotiations

... which leads us to the situation since then, where, with every peace offer Kiev/NATO refuses, the terms get worse. Possibly keeping Donbass, to definitely losing Donbass for good, to possibly keeping Kherson and Zaporozhyes, to definitely losing Kherson and Zaporozhye oblasts for good, to accepting the loss of Donbass, Kherson and Zaporozhye oblasts and pulling out troops as prerequisites for even restarting negotiations. The fantastic, unbelievably generous terms of March 2022, when Ukraine literally would have “won” (if it were an independent state that decided its own future) in the long term, are never coming back again.

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A Ukrainian peace negotiator has been shot dead ahead of the latest round of talks to end the war amid claims he was a Russian spy.

Ukraine's Ministry of Defence said Denis Kireev, 45, was a spy and former banker who was killed during an operation to 'defend the nation'.

After his death, the government hailed him as a 'hero' but MPs claimed he was shot and killed by Ukraine's security service after resisting arrest on suspicion of 'treason'.

Mr Kireev was pictured sat on the Ukrainian side of the negotiating table during last week's peace talks with Russia on February 28, despite not being on the official delegation list, and his role at the summit is unclear.

Both Russia and Ukraine have made claims about his alleged spying activities, each blaming him of working for the other side.

Russian newspaper Pravda reported that Ukraine's security service had 'clear evidence' of his suspected treason, which included telephone conversations.

An official statement from Ukraine's Ministry of Defence said: 'During the execution of special tasks, three spies were killed - employees of the Main Intelligence Directorate of the Ministry of Internal Affairs.

'The fate of Alexei Ivanovich, Chibineev Valery Viktorovich, Denis Borisovich Kireev.

'They perished defending Ukraine, and their rank brought us closer to victory!

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But yeah, what was found in Bucha ended any interest in negotiations on the Ukrainian side, at least at that point.

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Exactly. We can exert a gargantuan amount of pressure on Russia without having to send a single American soldier into harms way. But we’re not doing.

And the result is instead of a quick end of the war, it’s dragged on for two and a half years with no end in sight. The result is more destruction in Ukraine, more death and destruction for Ukrainian civilians, and mounting casualties for their armed forces. We’re not helping them in fact, we’re hurting them.

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Something I was wondering about last night when I was laying in bed, why are we not doing more to help Ukraine by bringing down the cost of oil? High oil prices is what keeps the Russian economy afloat and allows them the prosecute their invasion of Ukraine.

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WASHINGTON, June 13 (Reuters) - Donald Trump criticized U.S. aid to Ukraine and suggested raising tariffs to replace the U.S. income tax on a Thursday visit to Capitol Hill where he also called the city hosting his party's presidential convention "horrible."

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Trump also criticized a $60 billion aid package for Ukraine that recently passed with Republican support, lawmakers said.
"He's like, if Ukraine wins, what will be the benefit?" Republican Representative Don Bacon told reporters.

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Putin is on record for saying it's one of the reasons Russia ended negotiations as well claiming it was staged

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