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Started By
Message
re: Latest Updates: Russia-Ukraine Conflict
Posted on 6/13/24 at 7:51 am to VolSquatch
Posted on 6/13/24 at 7:51 am to VolSquatch
quote:
China does a really good job diversifying their energy sources and heavily investing in it.
It imports more natural gas via LNG than via pipeline. Power of Siberia 2 was announced almost 2 decades ago but no money invested to date. China has Russia by the shorthairs.
1
Posted on 6/13/24 at 7:57 am to CitizenK
FT: Ukraine signs first major deal with US company for LNG supplies
U.S. Venture Global company signed the first major deal to supply liquefied natural gas to Ukraine, the Financial Times (FT) reported on June 13.
The move by Washington aims to reduce Russia's energy dominance in the region and boost Ukraine's energy security as Moscow intensifies attacks on gas storage facilities and critical infrastructure.
Under the deal, DTEK, Ukraine's largest private energy company, will start purchasing an unspecified amount of LNG from Venture Global later in 2024 and throughout 2026.
Ukraine and other Eastern European countries will reportedly receive gas from Venture Global's Plaquemines plant, located on the Gulf Coast of Louisiana.
Ukraine has never purchased U.S. liquefied natural gas directly before. It is not specified how much of Ukraine's gas demand would be served by the agreement.
"With this landmark agreement, we will help bolster Ukraine’s security of natural gas supply, aid continued recovery and economic growth in the region, and further strengthen European energy security," said Mike Sabel, Venture Global’s chief executive.
The Kyiv Independent
U.S. Venture Global company signed the first major deal to supply liquefied natural gas to Ukraine, the Financial Times (FT) reported on June 13.
The move by Washington aims to reduce Russia's energy dominance in the region and boost Ukraine's energy security as Moscow intensifies attacks on gas storage facilities and critical infrastructure.
Under the deal, DTEK, Ukraine's largest private energy company, will start purchasing an unspecified amount of LNG from Venture Global later in 2024 and throughout 2026.
Ukraine and other Eastern European countries will reportedly receive gas from Venture Global's Plaquemines plant, located on the Gulf Coast of Louisiana.
Ukraine has never purchased U.S. liquefied natural gas directly before. It is not specified how much of Ukraine's gas demand would be served by the agreement.
"With this landmark agreement, we will help bolster Ukraine’s security of natural gas supply, aid continued recovery and economic growth in the region, and further strengthen European energy security," said Mike Sabel, Venture Global’s chief executive.
The Kyiv Independent
Posted on 6/13/24 at 9:30 am to Coeur du Tigre
But the Putin Board told me that the Russian economy was booming and the Ruble would become way stronger than the dollar. And the BRICS alliance was going to take off and overtake any Western alliance.
Posted on 6/13/24 at 9:46 am to sta4ever
quote:
But the Putin Board told me that the Russian economy was booming and the Ruble would become way stronger than the dollar. And the BRICS alliance was going to take off and overtake any Western alliance.
Its economy has been in the shitter for 2 years. BRICS is nothing more than a London investment banker play. Anyone who thinks that there will be a single currency and any economic power alliance is an idiot.
Posted on 6/13/24 at 10:07 am to CitizenK
Random tweets
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quote:
The United Kingdom has joined the US sanctions against Moscow Exchange, the National Clearing Centre and the National Settlement Depository, — the government said.
In total, 50 new items were added to the list of sanctions restrictions.
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Detained US Reporter Evan Gershkovich to Stand Trial in Russia
Date: 13 June 2024
Russian prosecutors have announced that the case of detained US reporter Evan Gershkovich has been sent to court. The prosecutors allege that Gershkovich collected information for the US Central Intelligence Agency (CIA) about a Russian tank factory. This information was released in an official statement from the office of Russia’s General Prosecutor.
The court hearing will take place in Yekaterinburg, the Urals city where Gershkovich was arrested in March 2023 on suspicion of espionage. Gershkovich and his employer have vehemently rejected the espionage charges, labeling them as false
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China, which will not attend the Swiss summit, is lobbying for an alternative "peace plan" among world governments - Reuters
"In conversations with developing countries, China has not openly criticized the Swiss summit or directly asked countries to abstain. However, Beijing has told them the meeting will prolong the war and told Western countries that many developing countries agree with its views," diplomats in Beijing said.
One called Beijing's campaign a "subtle boycott" of the global meeting in Switzerland.
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Pashinyan: "I declare that I will never visit Belarus as long as Alexander Lukashenka is president: from now on, no Armenian official will visit Belarus"
#Pashinyan accused #Lukashenka of preparing Azerbaijan's war against #Armenia.
"One of the CSTO leaders claims that he participated in the preparation of the 44-day war, encouraged, believed, wished victory to #Azerbaijan. And after that, do you believe that I will go to discuss the issue with the president of #Belarus in the #CSTO format?" added Pashinyan, speaking at a session of the National Assembly.
The Belarusian Foreign Ministry responded to Pashinyan's statement: "We do not intend to worsen relations with Yerevan, no matter how much the Armenian leadership is pushed to do so by external actors."
Ambassador of Belarus to Russia Dmitri Krutoy commented on the statement: "Pashinyan needs to sort it out, there are still protests going on there [in Yerevan]," said Krutoy.
Recall, Armenian Prime Minister said that he would not visit Belarus while Lukashenka remained in power.
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The Russian Ministry of Justice through the court demanded to liquidate the charitable foundation "Together Against Fascism"
The reasons why the Ministry of Justice asked for the liquidation of the fund are unknown.
The website of "Together Against Fascism" has not been updated since 2018, but it was active even after that - the last mention of its actions in the media is dated 2022. The foundation provided assistance to former prisoners of Nazi concentration camps, collected their life stories, held children's contests and engaged in educational activities.
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Apparently more and more russian "instructors" are landing in Burkina faso.
A new unit called "BEAR", part of the REDUT pmc (linked to russian intelligence GRU) already recruited 40ish mercs, paid between 2500$ and 4000$
You can see their flag over their HQ, somwhere in Ouagadougou ..( Ouaga2000 probably)
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Canada will hand over the CRV7 missiles to Ukraine, which the head of the State Security Service Kyrylo Budanov called for handing over.
As Canadian Defense Minister Bill Blair reported, Ukraine will receive 2,300 such missiles that were previously used by the Canadian Air Force.
In addition, Norway transferred to Ukraine a batch of 81-mm mortar mines worth €27.8 million, hand grenades worth €3.1 million and ammunition for sniper rifles worth €190,000.
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Instead of the US Patriot, which will be transferred to Ukraine, Poland will receive another air defence system.
This was stated by Deputy Minister of National Defence of Poland Cezary Tomczyk.
"Poland did not agree to transfer the Polish battery. The Polish Patriot system protects the Polish sky, and this will not change," — Tomczyk said.
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Posted on 6/13/24 at 10:09 am to CitizenK
quote:The question was one of an impending Ruble collapse.
Its economy has been in the shitter for 2 years
quote:
quote:FYI ...
Anyone who thinks that there will be a single currency and any economic power alliance is an idiot.
quote:
A shift away from the US dollar is happening in real time, and investors must be ready
by Malli Karjuna
Mon, Jun 10, 2024
The US dollar’s dominance is in decline as Russia and Saudi Arabia eye the Chinese yuan for oil trades, and investors may need to begin to revise their long-term investment strategies, warns the CEO and founder of one of the world’s largest independent financial advisory and asset management companies, deVere Group.
...
“One of the most significant but under-reported outcomes of April’s three-day summit between Russia’s Vladimir Putin and China’s Xi Jinping was that Putin said Russia is now in favour of using the Chinese yuan for oil settlements," said Green. This suggests that the world’s second-largest economy and the world’s largest energy exporter are actively intending to reduce the dominance of the US dollar as the bedrock of the international financial system.
...
“Oil is one of the most important and widely traded commodities in the world, and it has traditionally been priced and traded in US dollars," said Green. "This has given the US dollar a dominant role in global financial markets as countries that want to purchase oil must first acquire US dollars in order to do so."
If oil trading were to shift away from the US dollar it would dramatically reduce the demand for US dollars, which would lead to a decrease in the value of the US currency.
"This could have a number of ripple effects throughout the global economy, including hugely increased inflation in the US and potentially destabilising effects on financial markets," said Green.
Additionally, a shift away from the US dollar in oil trading could lead to greater economic and geopolitical competition between countries. If the yuan were to become more widely used in oil trading, this could significantly increase the economic power and influence of China, challenging the dominance of the US in major global affairs.
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Posted on 6/13/24 at 10:38 am to NC_Tigah
quote:
The question was one of an impending Ruble collapse.
Russia stopped all trade on the Dollar this week. It's frozen. Russians will no longer be able to buy US Dollars at all. It's Yuan or Rupees sort of thing now. This affects exports of Russian products (raw materials not finished goods) Oligarchs have mostly gotten their money out of Russia in 2022 after its failure to take Kyiv.
quote:
A shift away from the US dollar is happening in real time, and investors must be ready
Fine, but still BRICS is a pipedream by morons. It was nothing but trading started by a London investment bank. Just a widget sort of thing. More US dollars are held outside the US than inside the US. It still is the top currency for international trade because of the quantity. The Japanese tried to make their Yen tops in the 1980's and failed miserably. Europe tried with the Euro in the 1990's and failed miserably. Neither had nearly enough currency held globally, China isn't close, India isn't close and to think that Brazil and South Africa are anywhere viable is well, laughable. That all of BRICS will come together is laughable.
Posted on 6/13/24 at 10:40 am to NC_Tigah
quote:
Kremlin_Tigah
You had to come embarrass yourself on here too?
Posted on 6/13/24 at 10:54 am to NC_Tigah
quote:
The question was one of an impending Ruble collapse.
Should we tell him how to read his Ruble/Dollar chart?
Posted on 6/13/24 at 11:20 am to CitizenK
quote:
quote:
But the Putin Board told me that the Russian economy was booming and the Ruble would become way stronger than the dollar. And the BRICS alliance was going to take off and overtake any Western alliance.
Its economy has been in the shitter for 2 years. BRICS is nothing more than a London investment banker play. Anyone who thinks that there will be a single currency and any economic power alliance is an idiot.
I just heard Zeihan answer a question from someone about BRICS...
"It's something a Goldman Sachs guy came up with as an investment package... then the involved countries decided 'oh, let's act like it's a real unified bloc because that's good PR,' but they don't agree on anything or like each other. China and India would sell out the rest of them in a second, Russia and Iran are pariah states that no one knows what stupid thing they're going to do tomorrow... and South Africa and Brazil are too much of a mess internally to be dependable. 'But Saudi Arabia is joining!!!' Saudi Arabia is in this phase of acting like 'we don't need the US/West,' but they totally need the US/West. The Petrodollar agreement, that's expiring, was the US payment for the Security agreement... Nixon's administration said 'hey, look... you're fat and lazy and underpowered militarily, and it's only a matter of time before one of your neighbors thinks 'let's just invade and kill them all and take all of that oil. So we'll cover your butts if you help us out here with a monetary problem we've gotten ourselves into.' So what has changed, now? They're still fat and lazy and underpowered, militarily... but they have an enemy in the region aggressively going after them in Khomeini Iran that they didn't have in 1970... and where else do they turn? Russia? Russia is intertwined with Iran at the moment, security-wise... China? China is intertwined with Russia... so they're renegotiating that security agreement, and with it the Petrodollar agreement... and if that doesn't take the official form it has in the past, if instead of the US being the security agent - which Americans are sick of after the War on Terror - then Turkey is our proxy at the head of the table in a pact with the Sunni states and....ISRAEL!?!?!?! Yep... Iran has kind of achieved the impossible, there. The Sunni states... or at least the leaders, and the people in the streets don't get a say, would rather have Israel than Iran. But what would replace the Petrodollar? Nothing else is as stable... and if you say 'CRYPTO!!!!' Get real!!!"
Posted on 6/13/24 at 11:39 am to StormyMcMan
These sanctions could have done this 2 years ago. Why now?
I believe the west sees Ukraine's prospects becoming more grim, and are willing to go further than they were previously willing to and risk potentially collapsing Russia's economy entirely (which I don't think they initially wanted to do, at least not completely, in order to avoid the instability that would likely result). Or despite being confident in Ukraine they are more willing to hedge their bet now than they were in the past two years for whatever reason.
The restrictions on weaponry, waiting to do sanctions that were available avenues day 1..... feels like the west is trying to do a controlled demolition of Russia and make Putin into a frog in boiling water instead of an ousted leader in free fall.. Hopefully the plan works as they intend, and better than previous similar attempts with other countries that don't have nukes.
I believe the west sees Ukraine's prospects becoming more grim, and are willing to go further than they were previously willing to and risk potentially collapsing Russia's economy entirely (which I don't think they initially wanted to do, at least not completely, in order to avoid the instability that would likely result). Or despite being confident in Ukraine they are more willing to hedge their bet now than they were in the past two years for whatever reason.
The restrictions on weaponry, waiting to do sanctions that were available avenues day 1..... feels like the west is trying to do a controlled demolition of Russia and make Putin into a frog in boiling water instead of an ousted leader in free fall.. Hopefully the plan works as they intend, and better than previous similar attempts with other countries that don't have nukes.
Posted on 6/13/24 at 11:40 am to NC_Tigah
You need to let all the Russians in line at the Russian banks that their money is safe.
Posted on 6/13/24 at 11:51 am to VolSquatch
quote:
feels like the west is trying to do a controlled demolition of Russia and make Putin into a frog in boiling water instead of an ousted leader in free fall..
This is it... remember a couple of weeks ago Zelenskyy openly complained that the problem was that the West wants Ukraine to win but not at the expense of Russia losing.
Posted on 6/13/24 at 11:54 am to SirWinston
quote:
Mate who knew there were so many cucks like GOP_Tiger in the GOP? Who knew how deep the Deep State was?
blah blah blah excuses
quote:
Our Trump will be a yuman wrecking ball in his second term
like i said, the republican nominee always had my vote and always has unless a legit extreme right wing party comes along, but i have zero faith anything will change
sorry Ill believe it when i see it, hope you are right though
Posted on 6/13/24 at 12:07 pm to Lee B
quote:
remember a couple of weeks ago Zelenskyy openly complained that the problem was that the West wants Ukraine to win but not at the expense of Russia losing.
Like I've said before on here, the next leader of Russia will likely be worse than Putin... if we aren't very, very careful with how we handle them. There is already a right-wing movement globally currently (that is for the most part a positive thing), but put that in a country that already tends to gravitate toward the extreme ends of whatever side of the spectrum they are on at the time and you could have a recipe for some bad shite.
Posted on 6/13/24 at 12:08 pm to cypher
quote:
FT: Ukraine signs first major deal with US company for LNG supplies
We can squabble over tweets, maps, "space wars" (
), whatever... When you look at this at the macro level, it's pretty clear Russia is in trouble. They're losing defense contracts, including India, their biggest customer. Their oil & gas profits have plummeted. Western companies are breaking contracts and leaving Russia high and dry.
Between the new sanctions, G7 using frozen Russian assets to fund Ukraine, and Ukraine picking up foreign investments, it's looking like Russia severely underestimated the Western response to this invasion.
The "west" still has $250,000,000,000+ in frozen Russian assets they can use to fund Ukraine, more than enough for 5-8 years.
Posted on 6/13/24 at 12:12 pm to RuLSU
Meanwhile, China supports Russia by telling them to BOHICA
Posted on 6/13/24 at 12:29 pm to RuLSU
quote:
it's looking like Russia severely underestimated the Western response to this invasion.
The "west" still has $250,000,000,000+ in frozen Russian assets they can use to fund Ukraine, more than enough for 5-8 years.
If Russia thought they could outspend the west then that was a fools errand. I highly doubt thats the case.
To me we have 1 of 2 scenarios:
1. Russia thought they could take out Ukraine with the attack on Kyiv, failed, and are scrambling to adjust still.
2. Russia tried to take out Ukraine with the attack on Kyiv, but if that failed the plan became to "grind down" Ukrainian personnel faster than the west can "Grind down" Russia's economy.
I think the effort Russia put into defenses before the hyped Ukrainian counter-offensive points to the second one being true. I don't think you make that level of investment in securing the lines coupled with not really launching any huge offensives yourself unless you're prepared to really grind this out.
What I don't think Russia anticipated was the level of western aid, and the long term commitment to it.
Posted on 6/13/24 at 12:36 pm to VolSquatch
quote:
Like I've said before on here, the next leader of Russia will likely be worse than Putin... if we aren't very, very careful with how we handle them. There is already a right-wing movement globally currently (that is for the most part a positive thing), but put that in a country that already tends to gravitate toward the extreme ends of whatever side of the spectrum they are on at the time and you could have a recipe for some bad shite.
Probably... Putin, like Xi, has eliminated the possibility of anyone really being next in line... maybe one of Putin's daughters, but if he is forced out of power that doesn't seem likely. The only one of the Oligarchs (left alive) that has any kind of leadership quality or charisma is the one that he promoted out of the criminal underworld, who makes sure not to shine in any way because he knows the law of the jungle.
But the idea we're working on is leaving whoever that is in no position to be a threat to anyone outside of Russia, and for the Federation to be decentralized (the same way the U.S.S.R./Warsaw Pact fell apart)... with Moscow's checks bouncing and all the provinces finding themselves forced into independence, and for the UN/NATO to make deals with all of them to account for the nukes, just to make sure they don't end up somewhere else (like right across the Caspian Sea in Iran).
I also don't know how much the "lurch to the right" in Europe will end up being that real... there's a lot of complacency when it comes to EU elections, and mostly people who want to register their unhappiness are motivated to really bother with it when they get pissy enough.
Then there's the thing, summed up in a comment by a BBC News guest: "Saying 'European Far Right' is like saying 'Muslim World.' You're taking a bunch of people with different agendas, sometimes directly opposing each other, and reasoning that they're all lockstep on anything. Sure, they might all oppose immigration, but they're opposing different immigrants coming from different places in different ways for different reasons... or they might oppose Green energy policies but every locale will have its old energy preferences they want to protect for their own localized reasons. The entire thing about the Far Right is that they're opposed to political consensus... they're opposed to reasonable compromise and just want their way, and that is incompatible with running a union of 27 countries and economies. If they someday win control of the EU, they used to say they would abolish it, and that would make most of these countries have very little power in Europe."
It's just complex...
Euro News on Yahoo News: "Highest Turnout for 30 Years, but almost half of Europe shuns European elections."
This post was edited on 6/13/24 at 12:39 pm
Posted on 6/13/24 at 1:18 pm to VolSquatch
quote:
If Russia thought they could outspend the west then that was a fools errand. I highly doubt thats the case.
To me we have 1 of 2 scenarios:
1. Russia thought they could take out Ukraine with the attack on Kyiv, failed, and are scrambling to adjust still.
2. Russia tried to take out Ukraine with the attack on Kyiv, but if that failed the plan became to "grind down" Ukrainian personnel faster than the west can "Grind down" Russia's economy.
I think the effort Russia put into defenses before the hyped Ukrainian counter-offensive points to the second one being true. I don't think you make that level of investment in securing the lines coupled with not really launching any huge offensives yourself unless you're prepared to really grind this out.
What I don't think Russia anticipated was the level of western aid, and the long term commitment to it.
From the start...
1) Russia thought they could pick a fight with someone who would shite their pants and run away instantly...
that didn't happen, so...
2) Russia tried to take Kyiv...
that didn't happen so...
3) Russia decided to bomb Ukrainian civilians into submission (Putin's standard operating procedure)
That didn't work fast enough, if at all, so...
4) Russia tried to grind down Ukrainian forces and continue to bomb the civilian population, betting it could outlast Western assistance...
That almost worked, thanks to Congressional Republicans stalling the aid package, leading to Russia kind of turning the tide for 7 months, but then the aid resumed...
5) So now, Russia is hoping Trump wins and cuts off aid... which won't matter because the EU has created a workaround with frozen Russian assets... they don't trust or like Trump and see him as a threat to all of this...
Trump can abandon the sanctions under whatever reasons he thinks up, but that doesn't mean the EU has to follow suit... and this is where France and Poland and possibly even Italy under Meloni will stand up and have their hero shot as the new leaders of the free world who will stand by what's right.
And while Trump has given no comments on what his policy towards Ukraine would actually be... and he is impulsive and the last person he talked to or who tweeted something that also flattered him sets his agenda for the rest of the day... he is dependable in holding a grudge, and he dislikes Zelensky because of that "perfect phone call." Not that Zelensky participated in using it against him (if you remember, he said he did not feel pressured or blackmailed, which is probably him being a diplomatic non-shite-stirrer) but rather that he didn't kowtow enough to Trump, who sees the world as either people weaker than he is who should realize it, or people on his level (mostly dictators, especially those with nukes) who are his equals.
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