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Message
re: Latest Updates: Russia-Ukraine Conflict
Posted on 4/14/24 at 7:51 pm to StormyMcMan
Posted on 4/14/24 at 7:51 pm to StormyMcMan
This post was edited on 4/16/24 at 5:09 pm
2
Posted on 4/14/24 at 8:00 pm to GOP_Tiger
ISW Update
quote:
Key Takeaways:
Israel’s success in defending against large-scale Iranian missile and drone strikes from Iranian territory on April 13 underscores the vulnerabilities that Ukrainian geography and the continued degradation of Ukraine’s air defense umbrella pose for Ukrainian efforts to defend against regular Russian missile and drone strikes.
The exhaustion of US-provided air defenses resulting from delays in the resumption of US military assistance to Ukraine combined with improvements in Russian strike tactics have led to increasing effectiveness of the Russian strike campaign in Ukraine.
Russia’s strike campaign against Ukraine demonstrates that even a limited number of successful ballistic or cruise missile strikes can cause significant and likely long-term damage to energy and other infrastructure, highlighting the need for an effective and well-provisioned air defense umbrella capable of a sustained high rate of interception.
The Russian Ministry of Foreign Affairs (MFA) is falsely equating the April 13 large-scale Iranian strikes targeting Israel with the April 1 Israeli strike targeting Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC) officials in Damascus, amplifying Iran’s “justification” for the April 13 strikes.
Russian milbloggers largely responded to the April 13 Iranian strikes against Israel by suggesting that the increased threat of military escalation in the Middle East will likely draw Western, specifically US, attention and aid away from Ukraine.
Ukrainian Commander-in-Chief Colonel General Oleksandr Syrskyi reported that the senior Russian military command aims to seize Chasiv Yar, Donetsk Oblast by Russia’s Victory Day holiday on May 9.
The Russian military’s ongoing restructuring of the Western Military District (WMD) into the Moscow and Leningrad military districts (MMD and LMD) is reportedly shifting areas of operational responsibility (AOR) for Russian force groupings in Ukraine.
The Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD) has reportedly fired the commanders of a combined arms army and motorized rifle regiment operating in southern Ukraine likely for failing to recapture areas lost during the Ukrainian summer-fall 2023 counteroffensive.
Ukrainian forces advanced south of Kreminna and southwest of Donetsk City and Russian forces recently made confirmed advances near Chasiv Yar (west of Bakhmut) and Avdiivka.
Posted on 4/14/24 at 8:45 pm to CitizenK
quote:
A friend transitioned out of the USN to work for the CIA in SE Asia 1970's. He'd never seen a bigger clusterfrick in his life.
supposedly fantastic at gathering intel (paying people for information and secrets), but horrible at managing the operations they put into action, which often end up crossing each other...
Posted on 4/14/24 at 9:04 pm to Grigio
quote:
Do you honestly not remember the CIA getting caught spying on the Trump campaign, colluding with foreign intelligence agencies (including a former British spy whose dossier was based on the word of a former Russian spy) attempting to frame the Trump campaign as Russian spies, all to interfere with the election then overthrow the election.
Serious question, are you a Russian troll? Are you a retard?
It was the FBI, not the CIA, who invested Trump's 2016 campaign because it was in contact with Russian nationals... and it would investigate any Presidential campaign involved in that, and especially one that publically asked for the Russians to hack his opponent at the same time.
Christopher Steele was not a CIA agent, he was a former MI-5 agent for Great Britain, and he was hired to collect his dossier on Trump by Fusion GPS as "opposition research" by a Republican. And when there was no need for it because the Republican primary was clearly going Trump's way, Fusion GPS offered it to the Clinton campaign to get back the money it spent on the investigation.
Strange that you're accusing the non-Russian trolls here of being the Russian trolls, which is exactly the kind of thing a Russian Troll would do!
This post was edited on 4/14/24 at 9:06 pm
Posted on 4/14/24 at 9:05 pm to GOP_Tiger
quote:
The speaker has expressed support for legislation that would structure some of the funding for Kyiv as loans, pave the way for the U.S. to tap frozen Russian central bank assets and include other policy changes.
And still no strategic plan for Ukraine from Biden. "As long as it takes" is not a strategic plan. Without some strategic plan this is like throwing more money down the well. IMO this will be too little, too late especially with Biden's/Sullivan's stance that denied what was really needed in 2022 when Ukraine had the initiative after Kharkiv and Kherson and still the same policies exist! Even you have admitted that. I believe Ukraine may be on it's last leg and this Spring/Summer could be really devastating. Johnson should have demanded drastic policy changes before he brought this to the floor. If no changes in policy, no more money. If Ukraine does fall, the American people have a right to ask why this money was spent with no strategy for any success.
I would like someone to tell me how this 60 billion is going to change things if the same policies (or lack of) are still in place? That is a serious question. We saw this in Vietnam. If nothing changes that just means more Ukrainian deaths and destruction. How can Ukraine take back land or win if they don't have the resources to do so? Europe can't or won't provide them. Macron is all talk and the Germans are ready to bail. This is going to end with Russia keeping all of the land it occupies now, including Crimea, or it might even get worse. Another Vietnam, Iraq or Afghanistan where billions were spent with no results other than failure. At least this time no American soldiers will die I guess.
Well it looks like you are going to get your aid, but what difference is it going to make with the same crew in Washington? Seems to me that the only strategic goal here is to drag this out to see how many Russians and Ukrainians are going to die.
This post was edited on 4/14/24 at 9:27 pm
Posted on 4/14/24 at 9:29 pm to AU86
quote:
I would like someone to tell me how this 60 billion is going to change things if the same policies (or lack of) are still in place? That is a serious question. We saw this in Vietnam. If nothing changes that just means more Ukrainian deaths and destruction.
Finally someone is asking the real questions. I get y'all support Ukraine unequivocally and Russia is evil but these are questions everybody should be asking.
Posted on 4/14/24 at 9:35 pm to AU86
A complete failure from all of our politicians these last 4 years. You’re right. It will be too little too late. This summer won’t be good. All of our politicians should be ashamed of themselves.
Posted on 4/14/24 at 9:36 pm to Lee B
quote:
supposedly fantastic at gathering intel (paying people for information and secrets), but horrible at managing the operations they put into action, which often end up crossing each other...
He never stayed in a CIA safehouse in SE Asia anywhere. It was safer to go to a brothel, pay mamasan $500 for a bed and a bottle of whiskey to hole up for a few days.
Posted on 4/14/24 at 10:11 pm to AU86
quote:
I would like someone to tell me how this 60 billion is going to change things if the same policies (or lack of) are still in place? That is a serious question. We saw this in Vietnam. If nothing changes that just means more Ukrainian deaths and destruction.
Respectfully to you...
in Vietnam, the US was fighting to keep the Emperor of Vietnam and his regime in power... the Emperor of Vietnam considered himself a French European who owned a giant plantation, pretty much, and was staying as far away from Vietnam as possible. The people in South Vietnam were mostly ambivalent about the Viet Cong, but they disliked the Emperor. We were fighting to save a country that didn't care if it was saved and that's why it was unwinnable (Afghanistan is kind of the same problem... ). Now, in the short term South Vietnam was probably VERY sorry when the Vietcong took over. My Vietnam Vet father-in-law says he would like to go back and see how it all worked out for them now that the country has evolved... he was a History teacher and he mentions how they had a ceremony in Vietnam right after WWI ended where Ho Chi Minh read a letter he was sending begging America and President Wilson to help Vietnam win independence from its Emperor and the French, like America had done from England, then they played and sang the "Star Spangled Banner." "You know how many lives wouldn't have been lost if we had taken that chance?" When Wilson didn't, Ho turned towards Communism and the U.S.S.R.
But point being, we were fighting to defend people who didn't have their heart in winning... they actually sympathized far more with the North Vietnamese on average. We should be worried about the same thing starting to happen in South Korea... who could look at North Korea, the living embodiment of "1984," and think "that looks better than my life?" Poor South Koreans is who. And there are a lot of them... their society is being delineated into very well-off people and very poor people who can't advance out of that caste (the film "Parasite" portrays this perfectly).
Similar problem basically with Afghanistan. We determined it was stay there, forever, or cut it... we expected the Afghan government to last 6 months to a year on its own. It didn't make a full day.
Ukraine is different. They will be fighting using guerrilla tactics and terrorism if Russia prevails. In that respect, they will be more like the Vietcong, or the Mujahideen during the Soviet Intervention in Afghanistan. But Russia is also extremely brutal in how it handles its occupied areas and people who resist, so that's going to be huge body count.
This post was edited on 4/14/24 at 10:25 pm
Posted on 4/15/24 at 4:45 am to AU86
quote:
Johnson should have demanded drastic policy changes before he brought this to the floor.
Johnson has been negotiating extensively with the White House for months on this. At this point, we have no idea if he succeeded in any policy changes.
I will point out, though, that Congress has the direct power to do things like send F-16s to Ukraine. If Congress wants Ukraine to win, they can vote to send specific armaments to help that happen. Johnson could put that in the bill that goes on the floor this week.
EDIT: Congress can even say that weapons can be given to Ukraine without restrictions (i.e. they can be used to hit targets in Russia). Congress has the power to set policy and should set policy.
Part of America's dysfunctional government for decades (under both political parties) is that the President has too much power, because Congress doesn't do its job. That problem has gotten much worse in recent years, though, as members of Congress have found that making extreme statements on camera helps raise $$$$ online, and this behavior has become more attractive than the actual work of governing.
The Founders intended for the legislative branch to make policies, including foreign policy, and for the executive branch to implement those policies. Idiots like Jake Sullivan shouldn't have the power that they do.
This obviously extends across all areas of government. When the EPA makes up some stupid new rule that hurts American industry, remember that the reason it happens is that Congress doesn't want to be bothered with such things, so it allows the EPA to do it.
This post was edited on 4/15/24 at 5:48 am
Posted on 4/15/24 at 6:55 am to GOP_Tiger
British Defence Intelligence
INTELLIGENCE UPDATE
UPDATE ON UKRAINE 15 April 2024
Russia continues to advertise and seek to recruit foreign nationals to join the Russian Armed Forces to fight in Ukraine. The most recent leaflet, written in English, requests foreigners to join a 'special' unit in the Russian Army and highlights a monthly salary of $2,200, a signing on payment of $2,000, a Russian passport, free medical treatment and training.
Online recruitment adverts were distributed during the middle of 2023 specifically appealing to citizens of neighbouring countries, such as Armenia and Kazakhstan, with monthly salary offers of $1,973 and signing on payments of $5,140. During 2023 Russia had also been approaching central Asian migrants within Russia. More recently there have been reports of migrants from India and Nepal recruited and sent to fight in Ukraine.
It is likely that many of those that have been recruited are not professional soldiers but migrant workers and have been coerced to fight under false pretences or with the offer of financial incentives. The numbers of foreign nationals in the Russian Armed Forces are likely to be low and integrated in to established rather than 'special' units. Russia likely wishes to avoid further unpopular domestic mobilisation measures and with significant casualties - currently estimated at 913 per day - Russia needs to continue to explore all recruitment avenues to maintain a high tempo of personnel in-flow.
INTELLIGENCE UPDATE
UPDATE ON UKRAINE 15 April 2024
Russia continues to advertise and seek to recruit foreign nationals to join the Russian Armed Forces to fight in Ukraine. The most recent leaflet, written in English, requests foreigners to join a 'special' unit in the Russian Army and highlights a monthly salary of $2,200, a signing on payment of $2,000, a Russian passport, free medical treatment and training.
Online recruitment adverts were distributed during the middle of 2023 specifically appealing to citizens of neighbouring countries, such as Armenia and Kazakhstan, with monthly salary offers of $1,973 and signing on payments of $5,140. During 2023 Russia had also been approaching central Asian migrants within Russia. More recently there have been reports of migrants from India and Nepal recruited and sent to fight in Ukraine.
It is likely that many of those that have been recruited are not professional soldiers but migrant workers and have been coerced to fight under false pretences or with the offer of financial incentives. The numbers of foreign nationals in the Russian Armed Forces are likely to be low and integrated in to established rather than 'special' units. Russia likely wishes to avoid further unpopular domestic mobilisation measures and with significant casualties - currently estimated at 913 per day - Russia needs to continue to explore all recruitment avenues to maintain a high tempo of personnel in-flow.
Posted on 4/15/24 at 7:32 am to Lee B
Respectfully to you:
Frick off Biden lover.
Don't try to lecture me on Vietnam. Were you there?
Frick off Biden lover.
Don't try to lecture me on Vietnam. Were you there?
This post was edited on 4/15/24 at 7:34 am
Posted on 4/15/24 at 7:36 am to GOP_Tiger
quote:
Johnson has been negotiating extensively with the White House for months on this. At this point, we have no idea if he succeeded in any policy changes.
But just the other day, in fact just about every other day you have been criticizing him for stalling this. So which is it? Negotiate for months for policy changes or bring it to the floor 5-6 months ago? Sullivan resign? Been replaced? I bet you he didn't achieve anything regarding policy changes.
You didn't answer the question. I am not surprised.
This post was edited on 4/15/24 at 8:13 am
Posted on 4/15/24 at 8:27 am to Grigio
quote:
Serious question, are you a Russian troll? Are you a retard?
“They always accuse you of what they are”
Posted on 4/15/24 at 8:37 am to GOP_Tiger
Listening to the latest Perun, yesterday and some interesting tidbits were discovered...
1. One of the first things the Clinton Admin did was call in defense contractors to tell them the defense budget was going to be heavily cut regarding arms purchase. The massive consolidation among contractors was on to save themselves from bankruptcy, Stinger production ceased. The US has been coasting for a few decades on ammo produced before the Clinton cuts.
2. The Ukraine Aid packages are mostly replacing old given to Ukraine weapons with arms geared towards China, so any arms build up has little to do with Ukraine or Russia.
3. Some private contractors are putting up their own money for expansion for sales of ammo and manpads to foreign buyers.
Thus all the hubub about new taxpayer money funding via buying weapons and ammo for Ukraine is total bullcrap from politicians trying to raise campaign money about how they are fighting Zelensky corruption. 100% liars
Here is the link, which I had forgotten to include
LINK
1. One of the first things the Clinton Admin did was call in defense contractors to tell them the defense budget was going to be heavily cut regarding arms purchase. The massive consolidation among contractors was on to save themselves from bankruptcy, Stinger production ceased. The US has been coasting for a few decades on ammo produced before the Clinton cuts.
2. The Ukraine Aid packages are mostly replacing old given to Ukraine weapons with arms geared towards China, so any arms build up has little to do with Ukraine or Russia.
3. Some private contractors are putting up their own money for expansion for sales of ammo and manpads to foreign buyers.
Thus all the hubub about new taxpayer money funding via buying weapons and ammo for Ukraine is total bullcrap from politicians trying to raise campaign money about how they are fighting Zelensky corruption. 100% liars
Here is the link, which I had forgotten to include
LINK
This post was edited on 4/15/24 at 8:57 am
Posted on 4/15/24 at 11:07 am to AU86
quote:
I would like someone to tell me how this 60 billion is going to change things if the same policies (or lack of) are still in place?
I'm not a fan of Biden's plan, just to be 100% clear.
IMO, this funding, if it actually happens will give Ukraine a lot of ammunition, artillery, etc. That will help Ukraine stem Russian gains.
Biden thinks Russia will run out of money before Ukraine runs out of men. That's the strategy: force Russia to retreat, in essence, as the costs get too high.
That's not an endorsement of Biden's plan, BTW.
Posted on 4/15/24 at 12:47 pm to RuLSU
Same war, different front.
Serhii Sternenko
@sternenko
Russian state propagandist Sergey Mardan says that russia supports Iran's attack on Israel because Iran is a military ally of russia.
He also hopes that Iran will shoot down Israeli fighter jets.
Captioned Video
Serhii Sternenko
@sternenko
Russian state propagandist Sergey Mardan says that russia supports Iran's attack on Israel because Iran is a military ally of russia.
He also hopes that Iran will shoot down Israeli fighter jets.
Captioned Video
This post was edited on 4/15/24 at 12:48 pm
Posted on 4/15/24 at 1:09 pm to cypher
Baptists Call on House Speaker Mike Johnson to Stand with Ukraine
Seminary leaders say that the country, where Baptists are the largest Protestant denomination, has lost hundreds of churches in the war with Russia.
ADELLE M. BANKS - RELIGION NEWS SERVICE|
APRIL 11, 2024 12:11 PM
Southern Baptist leaders have written to US House Speaker Mike Johnson, a member and former official of their denomination, urging him to support Ukraine in Russia’s war against its Eastern European neighbor.
"As you consider efforts to support Ukraine, we humbly ask that you consider the plight of Christians,” wrote the leaders, who either have ties to the SBC’s Southwestern Baptist Theological Seminary or to Ukrainian Baptists. “The Russian government’s decision to invade Ukraine and to target Baptists and other evangelical Christians in Ukraine has been a tragic hallmark of the war.”
Christianity Today
Seminary leaders say that the country, where Baptists are the largest Protestant denomination, has lost hundreds of churches in the war with Russia.
ADELLE M. BANKS - RELIGION NEWS SERVICE|
APRIL 11, 2024 12:11 PM
Southern Baptist leaders have written to US House Speaker Mike Johnson, a member and former official of their denomination, urging him to support Ukraine in Russia’s war against its Eastern European neighbor.
"As you consider efforts to support Ukraine, we humbly ask that you consider the plight of Christians,” wrote the leaders, who either have ties to the SBC’s Southwestern Baptist Theological Seminary or to Ukrainian Baptists. “The Russian government’s decision to invade Ukraine and to target Baptists and other evangelical Christians in Ukraine has been a tragic hallmark of the war.”
Christianity Today
Posted on 4/15/24 at 1:09 pm to AU86
quote:
But just the other day, in fact just about every other day you have been criticizing him for stalling this.
I have actually been very muted in my criticism of Speaker Johnson. I have most definitely not been criticizing him every day. He's had to thread a needle.
But the trickiest negotiation that he had was to get Trump on board, which he did. Whatever Trump wanted in exchange, it probably wasn't for Ukraine to win Trump may or may not want Ukraine to win, but if he does, he wants it to happen after he wins, so that he can get the credit for it and not Biden.
Posted on 4/15/24 at 1:11 pm to cypher
quote:
cypher
Baptists Call on House Speaker Mike Johnson to Stand with Ukraine
Only two years after it should have happened.
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