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Message
re: Latest Updates: Russia-Ukraine Conflict
Posted on 3/29/24 at 8:28 am to cypher
Posted on 3/29/24 at 8:28 am to cypher
Corriere della Sera (Italy's most-read newspaper)
EDIT: This should temper any expectation of success for a major Russian offensive this spring/summer. Then, there will be more US aid, and major US and European production lines are opening by the end of the year. In 2025, there will not be a significant imbalance in artillery fire.
quote:
One million artillery shells for Ukraine. Kyiv's army will receive ammunition by April. The Corriere della Sera is in a position to report that the initiative taken by the President of the Czech Republic, Petr Pavel, has been successful. No official press releases have been released, but we know that the government in Prague, together with about fifteen countries, has concluded the supply contracts, paying an estimated amount of around 1.8 billion euros.
At first, it was assumed that 800,000 rounds would be purchased: 500,000 for the most used caliber (155 mm) and another 300,000 for 122 mm. In the end, Czech government officials found 200,000 more. It is not known which industries have been contacted, although rumours point to South Korea, Turkey and, possibly, South Africa, among others.
A few weeks ago, Pavel's national security adviser, Tomas Pojar, announced that the first shipments would begin in June. Now it's speeding up: the loads will start by April. Among others, Germany, France, Holland, Norway, Sweden, Portugal, Belgium, Poland and Canada participated in the collection.
EDIT: This should temper any expectation of success for a major Russian offensive this spring/summer. Then, there will be more US aid, and major US and European production lines are opening by the end of the year. In 2025, there will not be a significant imbalance in artillery fire.
This post was edited on 3/29/24 at 8:33 am
Posted on 3/29/24 at 8:36 am to No Colors
quote:
A significant percentage of poli board posters are nervously watching their bank accounts today
No they’re not, hero.
Posted on 3/29/24 at 8:49 am to ColtRange
Not seeing any reports of significant damage to any power plants. Last time the Russians scored a major hit it was in the news within hours.
Posted on 3/29/24 at 8:53 am to Philzilla
quote:
No they’re not, hero
So angry
Posted on 3/29/24 at 8:59 am to WeeWee
quote:
Not seeing any reports of significant damage to any power plants. Last time the Russians scored a major hit it was in the news within hours.
This is only a fraction of what got hit.
Posted on 3/29/24 at 9:33 am to ColtRange
quote:
They got pounded.
How do you know that they got pounded? The post you posted just says the Ukrainian government is not wanting people to give out information which is standard in war.
Posted on 3/29/24 at 9:56 am to doubleb
quote:LINK
A fecal lake formed in Engels! Due to a pipe break, the flow of sewage turned one of the streets of Engels into a real “river of sh*t.” (I actually don't see much of a difference between before and after...however) The utility workers decided to counteract the fecal flooding ???? with flimsy wooden planks, over which the local residents apparently had to cross. A flow of sewage even made its way into the entrances: while residents of the lower floors were forced to endure the thick sewer stench, the upper floors were left without water due to the pumps being turned off.
Really crappy situation in Russia.
Posted on 3/29/24 at 10:12 am to GOP_Tiger
quote:
EDIT: This should temper any expectation of success for a major Russian offensive this spring/summer. Then, there will be more US aid, and major US and European production lines are opening by the end of the year. In 2025, there will not be a significant imbalance in artillery fire.
Given enough 155mm shells, Ukraine can defend itself indefinitely.
Ukraine's artillery has better range, accuracy, and mobility. So long as they have shells, they can hold ground.
Posted on 3/29/24 at 10:15 am to WeeWee
quote:
How do you know that they got pounded? The post you posted just says the Ukrainian government is not wanting people to give out information which is standard in war.
This was from yesterday, before the strikes last night.
This one isn't even on that map.
This post was edited on 3/29/24 at 10:19 am
Posted on 3/29/24 at 10:24 am to tigeraddict
quote:
Bigger risk for Russia is a Trump win. Sure Trump will push for an end to the war, but if Putin doesn’t agree to a peace deal, Trump is likely to go all in on side to make the war end.
Putin holds all the cards at this point. He's not going to agree to anything short of his strategic objectives unless NATO gets involved.
Trump says he can end the war, but unless he knows something no one else on earth knows, I don't see him making much of a difference except calling the aid "loans"
Posted on 3/29/24 at 10:27 am to YouKnowImRight
quote:
Trump says he can end the war, but unless he knows something no one else on earth knows, I don't see him making much of a difference except calling the aid "loans"
He had a chance to end the war in his first term, right?
Posted on 3/29/24 at 10:31 am to cypher
quote:
ISW assesses that Russian forces have seized 505 square kilometers of territory since launching offensive operations in October 2023, and Russian forces gained almost 100 more square kilometers of territory between January 1 and March 28, 2024, than in the last three months of 2023 (although this rate of advance may be due to a combination of Ukrainian materiel shortages and more conducive weather conditions in the winter than in the fall).
This marginal increase in the rate of Russian advance is not reflective of the threat of Russian operational success amid continued delays in US security assistance, however.
Materiel constraints limit how Ukrainian forces can conduct effective defensive operations while also offering Russian forces flexibility in how to conduct offensive operations, which can lead to compounding and non-linear opportunities for Russian forces to make operationally significant gains in the future.
The opportunities to exploit Ukrainian vulnerabilities will widen as materiel shortages persist and as Ukraine continues to grapple with how to address manpower challenges.
The arrival of sufficient and regular Western security assistance and the resolution of Ukrainian manpower challenges would narrow these opportunities for Russian forces and provide Ukrainian forces with the ability to stop Russian forces from making even marginal tactical gains, to degrade Russian offensive capabilities, and to prepare for future counteroffensive operations to liberate more Ukrainian territory.
LINK
Posted on 3/29/24 at 10:47 am to YouKnowImRight
quote:
Trump says he can end the war, but unless he knows something no one else on earth knows, I don't see him making much of a difference except calling the aid "loans"
He has stated in several interviews that he would give Ukraine more weapons and the most modern ones than they could use.
Posted on 3/29/24 at 11:09 am to YouKnowImRight
quote:
He's not going to agree to anything short of his strategic objectives
What are his strategic objectives?
I've been sort of curious about this since 2014
Posted on 3/29/24 at 11:19 am to ColtRange
Those were taken out in the strike last week.
Damage from last night.
This post was edited on 3/29/24 at 11:20 am
Posted on 3/29/24 at 12:37 pm to WeeWee
I called this about a week ago. Strikes on oil production in Russia will lead to strikes on energy production in Ukraine.
More and more escalation.
More and more escalation.
Posted on 3/29/24 at 12:48 pm to GOP_Tiger
quote:
We do know that the clothes of the guys in the video match the clothes of the arrested suspects.
I personally do think that the arrested guys are the real perps. I do think that the videos released by ISIS are convincing that they are responsible for the attack, and it's an attack motivated by religious jihad.
That's all that I'm confident about at this point.
Not "religious Jihad."
Al Qaeda was/is a political organization with the goal of overthrowing the Saud regime in Saudi Arabia because the royal family is corrupt and robs the national treasury blind, then tells the citizens "This is the fault of the Western Oil COmpanies... they are evil and just don't leave enough money for you in the deals they force us into" and have this preached in the Mosques (which are government-owned). Al Qaeda actually points out that this is bullshite... but since the US was effectively the Saudi rent-a-cops in the 90s, and we were preventing their terrorism within Saudi Arabia from meeting their objectives, so they declared war on us and began attacking us years before 9/11. This is why most of the hijackers were Saudi citizens, and why people were confused that they were drunk in strip clubs the night before... they were not driven by religion. The weird thing is they've uncovered things pointing to some members of the royal family and even the Saudi government enabling or just purposely ignoring things leading up to 9/11 attack, supposedly because they believed it would lead to us disposing of Al Qaeda if it happened (and that ended up being the case, right?).
The W Bush administration pressed that it was a religious attack and war... mainly because going into the details would not have inspired the public as much.
ISIS is a fake religious organization. It was formed by Saddam Hussein's former military leaders... men who had been secular their entire lives. When he was deposed, the majority Shi'ia population took over Iraq, and these men wanted to fight that, and they looked at how the framing of 9?11 as a religious war had actually inspired some resistance in the Middle-East from Muslims, so they launched a "religious organization." It's true goals, though, are fighting Iran and Shi'ite Muslims for control of the region. ISIS fights the Taliban in Afghanistan, who are Sunni, because the Taliban are actual religious zealots and they don't get along. They fight the Alawite Assad regime in Syria because they are Shi'ite allies of Iran. And here is where it gets interesting... Hamas and Hezbollah in Palestine are appendages of Iran, as are the Houthis in Yemen, so ISIS opposes and fight them. ISIS attacked Iran recently, and this attack on Russia fits into that general tactic, fight who is supplying and protecting your enemy.
The war in the middle east in modern times is between Iran and Saudi Arabia for control of the region. The religious sectarianism is just an excuse and a great recruiting tool for zealots who would go on suicide missions, but it is really a political battle.
And, the weird by-product is that the Sunni states (Saudi Arania, Egypt, Jordan) at this point would prefer Israel (which they used to exist to try to run out of the region) than a Palestine that is an appendage of Iran and increases their power.
So a very political terrorist act, to seek to weaken Russia and thus weaken Iran and Syria, not a religious Jihad. It is important to understand this, because you need to understand their motivations and actions.
(as for "where the hell did you come from?" I was banned from this site after Jan 6 by one of the Qanon admins on the Poli Board for pointing out their insanity... but I have checked this thread regularly since Russia invaded Ukraine because it is a great source of information... when not being derailed by the Putinistas...)
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