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Started By
Message
re: Latest Updates: Russia-Ukraine Conflict
Posted on 3/16/24 at 1:30 am to Jim Rockford
Posted on 3/16/24 at 1:30 am to Jim Rockford
quote:Videos.
Russian Telegram channels report drone attacks on two enterprises at once in Samara region. Local residents say about explosions at the Syzran refinery. The area of fire is 500 square meters. Other drones attacked the Novokuybyshevsk refinery. No official confirmation yet.
Of note: Both refineries are 1370km from Kyiv. I may be wrong, but this may be the longest drone strike yet. Certainly longer than the 1100km strike at the St. Petersburg oil depot last January.
An unmolested +/- 1370km drone flight over Russian territory. Where air defense...?
This post was edited on 3/16/24 at 1:32 am
2
Posted on 3/16/24 at 4:29 am to NPComb
Let's add some context to that infographic GIF you posted.
Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania, Poland, Czechoslovakia, Hungary, Romania, Bulgaria, and East Germany all had Soviet troops in them by 1945 and after the war, they were FORCED to become communist without any choice. Why is it surprising they became part of NATO as soon as they could to hopefully prevent that sort of thing from ever happening again?
Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania, Poland, Czechoslovakia, Hungary, Romania, Bulgaria, and East Germany all had Soviet troops in them by 1945 and after the war, they were FORCED to become communist without any choice. Why is it surprising they became part of NATO as soon as they could to hopefully prevent that sort of thing from ever happening again?
Posted on 3/16/24 at 4:30 am to Coeur du Tigre
quote:
This morning, 6am local time, Russian oil refinery in Syzran, Samara region, was attacked by drones.
On the video man mentions that “AVT-6 is done” and that “K-2 column is on fire”
The capacity of the AVT-6 on the Syzran oil refinery is 6 million tons per year. That is about 70% of the capacity of the entire Syzran oil refinery 8.5 million tons of oil per year.
LINK
Posted on 3/16/24 at 4:32 am to GOP_Tiger
That’s good news….
Posted on 3/16/24 at 4:53 am to Obtuse1
quote:It is surprising that NATO offered.
Why is it surprising they became part of NATO as soon as they could to hopefully prevent that sort of thing from ever happening again?
Why?
Because it was unnecessary.
It was counter to US assurances associated with German reunification.
It was and is destabilizing.
It led to Putin's ascendance.
It directly led to furtherance of counterproductive Sino-Russian alliances.
After 15yrs of failed diplomacy, it eventually triggered a predictable and well predicted war.
Posted on 3/16/24 at 4:57 am to Coeur du Tigre
quote:
Of note: Both refineries are 1370km from Kyiv. I may be wrong, but this may be the longest drone strike yet. Certainly longer than the 1100km strike at the St. Petersburg oil depot last January.
An unmolested +/- 1370km drone flight over Russian territory. Where air defense...?
Putin never foresaw the need to protect his entire oil, gas, and heavy industry. This is Russia's Achilles heel.
These drones are at 1300 km now and they are not done yet. 2000 km won't surprise me.
Putin’s dilemma: Continue the invasion, illegally occupy Ukraine territory, and watch his refineries burn or withdraw completely and salvage the oil and gas industry.
This post was edited on 3/16/24 at 5:10 am
Posted on 3/16/24 at 5:07 am to GOP_Tiger
LINK
quote:
Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine is exterminating religious freedom, signaling a return by Moscow to Soviet-era levels of persecution of faiths, the head of the Ukrainian Greek Catholic Church has said.
quote:
"Today, in the occupied territory, there is not one Catholic priest. All my priests, even the Roman Catholic priests, were all expelled or imprisoned," Shevchuk told Newsweek in an interview.
quote:
"Around 50 religious ministers, Protestant pastors, Orthodox priests, Catholic priests have been imprisoned or killed," Shevchuk said. He added that Russia is returning "to the time of the Soviet Union where all of those religion were prohibited or overcontrolled, or simply destroyed.
"In the Soviet Union, Stalin completely destroyed our church, imprisoned all our bishops and all our priests who would not sign an agreement to become Orthodox," added Shevchuk, who started his priestly formation at an underground seminary in the USSR.
Posted on 3/16/24 at 5:13 am to cypher
quote:
Putin’s dilemma: Continue the invasion, illegally occupy Ukraine territory, and watch his refineries burn or withdraw completely and salvage the oil and gas industry.
I wonder how much longer until the rationing starts and citizens have to line up at gas stations.
The military will, of course, get first dibs on gasoline -- this won't have a short-term impact on the battlefield. And gas prices are government controlled, so prices can't naturally rise to impact demand, so we'll know that the Ukrainian campaign has been successful when there is rationing and lines.
Posted on 3/16/24 at 5:20 am to GOP_Tiger
quote:
I wonder how much longer until the rationing starts and citizens have to line up at gas stations.
They've already banned gasoline exports.
Posted on 3/16/24 at 5:38 am to cypher
WarTranslated (Dmitri)
@wartranslated
Russians started talking about the issue of attacked oil refineries more seriously. It is clear that these weak targets are so easy to reach by democratic drones.
Russia may face the same fuel issues that the Wehrmacht had in WWII.
@wartranslated
Russians started talking about the issue of attacked oil refineries more seriously. It is clear that these weak targets are so easy to reach by democratic drones.
Russia may face the same fuel issues that the Wehrmacht had in WWII.
Posted on 3/16/24 at 5:49 am to cypher
Politico:
Don’t rule out troops to Ukraine, Finnish FM says
Don’t rule out troops to Ukraine, Finnish FM says
quote:
Western countries, including the United States, shouldn’t be entirely opposed to the idea of sending troops to Ukraine if conditions there worsen, Finnish Foreign Minister ELINA VALTONEN told NatSec Daily.
“It’s important that we not rule everything out for the long term, because we never know how serious the situation becomes,” Valtonen said in an interview this morning.
Posted on 3/16/24 at 6:09 am to cypher
quote:Putin’s dilemma: Continue the invasion, or withdraw, or massively expand his own remote attacks on vulnerable Ukrainian infrastructure.
Putin’s dilemma: Continue the invasion, illegally occupy Ukraine territory, and watch his refineries burn or withdraw completely and salvage the oil and gas industry.
Posted on 3/16/24 at 6:16 am to NC_Tigah
quote:
or massively expand his own remote attacks on vulnerable Ukrainian infrastructure.
I think if that was possible it would already be in effect. They did what they could starting in the winter of '22 but it mainly sold a lot of candles and generators. Air defense got built up and those attacks lost effectiveness.
Posted on 3/16/24 at 6:38 am to GOP_Tiger
quote:
The capacity of the AVT-6 on the Syzran oil refinery is 6 million tons per year. That is about 70% of the capacity of the entire Syzran oil refinery 8.5 million tons of oil per year.
Who knows how accurate this statement is, however the refinery capacity is 8.9 million tons per year, or 214,000 BPD. It is a fairly deep conversion refinery with a cat cracker and a hydrocracker. It also has older technology, a visbreaker.
Refineries generally have more than one crude unit. K-2 could be a column in any primary or downstream units. So knowing this means little without knowing how the number them.
Posted on 3/16/24 at 6:44 am to NC_Tigah
quote:
It was counter to US assurances associated with German reunification. It was and is destabilizing. It led to Putin's ascendance. It directly led to furtherance of counterproductive Sino-Russian alliances. After 15yrs of failed diplomacy, it eventually triggered a predictable and well predicted war.
Russia attacked Chechnya. Russia attacked Georgia. Russia attacked Ukraine 2014. Russia attacked Ukraine in force 2022
Commonality. None of these nations had NATO membership.
Baltics countries have ethnic Russias living in them. NATO is the only thing preventing Russia from doing the same
NATO is a defensive pact. Russia attacking Ukraine was done before nato membership. Russia knows it can’t attack a nato country.
Posted on 3/16/24 at 7:40 am to CitizenK
British Defence Intelligence
INTELLIGENCE UPDATE
UPDATE ON UKRAINE 16 March 2024
According to analysis by Vorstka of Russian Pension and Social Insurance Fund data, there has been a record growth between 2022 and 2023 in the amount of Russian men aged 31-59 years with disabilities, over the eight years of available data. In 2022, there were officially 1.67 million men with disabilities in Russia aged 31-59 years. This figure increased by 507,000 or 30% in 2023.
Russian demographers have told Vosrtka that the increase in the number of men with disabilities was most likely due to the growth in military invalids. This is almost certainly the case. A significant majority of the over 355,000 casualties that the Russian Armed Forces have suffered as a result of the conflict in Ukraine have been wounded personnel. The average daily number of Russian casualties grew from the start of the Russian offensive campaign in autumn 2023, reaching a peak of 983 per day in February 2024, the highest rate since the start of the war.
The record rise in men with disabilities aged 31-59 and wounded personnel will have a significant impact on the Russian medical and social services.
INTELLIGENCE UPDATE
UPDATE ON UKRAINE 16 March 2024
According to analysis by Vorstka of Russian Pension and Social Insurance Fund data, there has been a record growth between 2022 and 2023 in the amount of Russian men aged 31-59 years with disabilities, over the eight years of available data. In 2022, there were officially 1.67 million men with disabilities in Russia aged 31-59 years. This figure increased by 507,000 or 30% in 2023.
Russian demographers have told Vosrtka that the increase in the number of men with disabilities was most likely due to the growth in military invalids. This is almost certainly the case. A significant majority of the over 355,000 casualties that the Russian Armed Forces have suffered as a result of the conflict in Ukraine have been wounded personnel. The average daily number of Russian casualties grew from the start of the Russian offensive campaign in autumn 2023, reaching a peak of 983 per day in February 2024, the highest rate since the start of the war.
The record rise in men with disabilities aged 31-59 and wounded personnel will have a significant impact on the Russian medical and social services.
Posted on 3/16/24 at 7:52 am to cypher
quote:
Putin’s dilemma: Continue the invasion, illegally occupy Ukraine territory, and watch his refineries burn or withdraw completely and salvage the oil and gas industry.
I think it will take a lot of burned refineries for Putin to change course.
This is just a good start.
Posted on 3/16/24 at 7:53 am to NC_Tigah
quote:
or massively expand his own remote attacks on vulnerable Ukrainian infrastructure.
LOLOLOL
EDIT: That's as serious as this threat:
This post was edited on 3/16/24 at 7:57 am
Posted on 3/16/24 at 7:58 am to NC_Tigah
quote:
massively expand his own remote attacks on vulnerable Ukrainian infrastructure.
What the winter of 2022 may have demonstrated is that western nations, even if squeamish about providing military arms, have no hesitation in sending equipment to repair infrastructure facilities in Ukraine. Europe was in a kind of “hurricane made” with repair equipment standing by.
Due to sanctions, Russia will have a harder time of it. It will have to source refinery parts from China, Iran, or another source. The equipment is likely available to Russia, but not as readily.
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