re: Latest Updates: Russia-Ukraine Conflict

I love all this fricking bullshite over defense cost. Do any of you mfers have any clue how much we spend on defense and where the GD Money goes.

Answer: you have no fricking clue because no one knows and they have never come close to passing any type of audit. The best anyone can determine we either have a multiple trillion dollar secret space force fleet like in Star Trek or something or trillions have been lost or stolen

Biden is incompetent. He should just shut down the border to take away that campaign issue.

Personally, I would super frick every Trump state every way I could. I would just cut all bit of federal funding to Florida and Texas etc. Pull everything out of these states I can

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In actual war news, Russia has cut the last real road into what used to be Avdiivka. Ukraine still has some dirt roads that it can use, but options are dwindling for the defense of the area.

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Time for the Ukrainian sappers to start building some corduroy roads.

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Oleksandr Syrskyi: "The Russian army is now advancing along the entire front, the situation can be called complicated. The Ukrainian army has shifted from offensive actions to defense, the purpose of which is to inflict maximum losses on the Russian Federation." The new AFU commander-in-chief called the main value of soldiers' lives, and therefore, according to him, he is "ready to retreat from some position rather than sacrifice all personnel". Those comments are certainly made in view of Syrskyi's reputation from Bakhmut and the Ukrainians who have referred to him as a butcher for his insistence on defending that area.

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That was the right decision. Ukraine lost a lot of men but Russia lost more. Plus Russia’s best fighting force in Wagner was destroyed. Ukraine is in a different position this year and holding ground just to kill Russian conscripts is not the same thing as holding ground to weaken or as it turns out destroy Wagner.

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Other reports that I've read have indicated that Ukrainian artillery units are now getting more shells. The rumor is that Zaluzhny had started stockpiling again for another offensive, but Syrskyi is now determined to focus on defense, so there's no more stockpiling for now.

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Counteroffensive last summer was a stupid idea put in Zelensky’s head by the Biden administration. Per my sauce(s) in Ukraine SOD Austin convinced Zelensky that Ukraine could break through like the USA did in the PGW despite the fact that Ukraine didn’t have air superiority and didn’t conduct a long air campaign to degrade the Russians military. I am glad that Zelensky is finally listening to his own military commanders again instead of the idiots in Washington who still think he should have fled and started a government in exhile instead of staying and fighting.

More Russian submarines join the fleet:

The AFU confirmed that they attacked the large landing ship Caesar Kunikov

The AFU General Staff has released a statement in which it officially confirmed the attack on the Russian large landing ship Caesar Kunikov in the Black Sea this morning.

The Ukrainian military claims that the ship, which was in Ukrainian territorial waters near Alupka (in annexed Crimea) at the time of the attack, was destroyed.

The Russian Defense Ministry is still not commenting on reports about the ship, but reported this morning that six drones were "intercepted" over the waters of the Black Sea tonight.

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That was the right decision. Ukraine lost a lot of men but Russia lost more.

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Not necessarily when Ukraine doesn't have the men to lose. Its so hard to judge these things by bodycount though because both sides are lying about the numbers and would never actually release them publicly.

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Counteroffensive last summer was a stupid idea put in Zelensky’s head by the Biden administration.

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I think the assumption that they needed to show some progress was correct. You see now that the appetite for funding this war is waning even among those who were all about it in 2022. The actual tactics used, resources allocated, or whatever else were the issue, if Ukraine was capable of succeeding in the counter-offensive at all in the first place.

ISW Update

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Key Takeaways:

The US Senate passed a supplemental appropriations bill that would provide roughly $60 billion of security assistance to Ukraine, the vast majority of which would go to US companies and personnel.

Ukrainian military observer Kostyantyn Mashovets reported that Russian forces are attempting to restore maneuver to the battlefield through Soviet deep battle theory but are struggling with implementing Soviet deep battle so far due to current Ukrainian capabilities.

The current Ukrainian battlefield capabilities that are denying Russian forces the ability to restore maneuver to the battlefield on Russian terms largely depend on the provision of Western military assistance in key systems, many of which only the US can provide at scale.

Ukrainian forces will not be able to retain these advantages and deny Russian forces the ability to restore maneuver to the battlefield on Russian terms without further assistance from the United States and its partner countries in the near and medium term.

Ukraine will lose its current battlefield advantages if Western states, particularly the United States, prematurely cease security assistance to Ukraine before Ukraine’s ongoing defense industrial base (DIB) revitalization efforts render its DIB largely self-sufficient.[15] If the US cuts off military aid now Russian forces may regain battlefield capabilities necessary to restore maneuver to the battlefield on Russian terms and would place Russia in a much better position militarily in the medium to long term.

Russian sources are purposefully exaggerating Ukrainian casualties in a Russian strike near Selydove, Donetsk Oblast on February 13.

The Kremlin appears to be asserting the right to enforce Russian Federation law on officials of governments in NATO member states over actions taken in the performance of their official duties within the territories of their own countries.

US sanctions are reportedly constraining Russian efforts to skirt the G7 oil cap amid continued indications that India may be rethinking its growing position as a customer of Russian oil.

Russian forces recently made confirmed advances near Kreminna and in western Zaporizhia Oblast amid continued positional engagements along the entire frontline.

The British International Institute for Strategic Studies (IISS) think tank stated on February 12 that Russia is likely able to sustain its current rate of vehicle losses for at least two to three years by producing new vehicles and reactivating vehicles from storage.

The Kremlin continues efforts to solidify control of occupied Ukraine through institutionalizing social benefits and services.

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British Defence Intelligence
INTELLIGENCE UPDATE
UPDATE ON UKRAINE 14 February 2024

According to analysis conducted by the Kyiv Scientific Research Institute for Forensic Examinations, Russia utilised its Tsirkon hypersonic missile in an attack on Ukraine for the first time on 7 February. A video of the wreckage allegedly shows fragments of the engine and steering mechanisms with specific markings that are, according to the report, 'characteristic of the 3M22 Zircon missile.

Reportedly capable of travelling at Mach 9 up to an effective firing range of 1,000km, Tsirkon was initially developed for use by the Russian Navy. The absence of vessels known to carry the missiles in the Black Sea raises questions about the method of launch. It is likely the Russian land-based K-300 coastal defence system has been adapted for this purpose. If its use is confirmed, this would present a significant challenge to Ukrainian air defences due to its speed and manoeuvrability.

It is likely the Russians are testing a newly operational weapon system in a live conflict environment to provide assurance and demonstrate capability.

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Not necessarily when Ukraine doesn't have the men to lose.

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Ukraine has called up over a million men sent them through training and then sent them home because they didn’t need them yet.

Ukrainian channel "Deep State" reports that heavy fog aided Russian assaults on the flanks of Avdiivka yesterday. They say that getting in and out is now a lottery, and that it's time to withdraw.