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Message
re: Latest Updates: Russia-Ukraine Conflict
Posted on 2/9/24 at 4:44 am to Coeur du Tigre
Posted on 2/9/24 at 4:44 am to Coeur du Tigre
British Defence Intelligence
INTELLIGENCE UPDATE
UPDATE ON UKRAINE 09 February 2024
On 7 February 2024, social media posts highlighted an explosion at a Russian missile factory close to Izhevsk, Udmurtia, in central Russia. This factory is used to produce a range of ballistic missiles including the Iskander, which is regularly used against Ukraine. Initial reports suggested the explosion was due to worker error, although later the Russian state TASS news agency reported it was due to 'planned tests' of rocket engines. It is unlikely that Ukrainian uncrewed aerial vehicles were involved in the explosion given the 1,200km distance from Ukraine. Furthermore, no such attacks were reported in the area.
This is at least the fifth unexplained military industrial factory explosion in four months. Previous explosions include the Kamensky chemical plant in Rostov on 15 January 2024; the Chelyabinsk tank factory on 26 November 2023 and gunpowder and ammunition factories in Kotovsk on 10 November 2023 and Solikamsk on 31 October 2023.
There is a realistic possibility that the explosion is due to negligent handling and storing of highly volatile, combustible, and explosive materials. Additionally, senior political pressure to increase military industrial output targets to support the war in Ukraine has likely led to round the clock production and staff fatigue. Increased demands on production will highly likely result in greater numbers of industrial accidents in the future.
INTELLIGENCE UPDATE
UPDATE ON UKRAINE 09 February 2024
On 7 February 2024, social media posts highlighted an explosion at a Russian missile factory close to Izhevsk, Udmurtia, in central Russia. This factory is used to produce a range of ballistic missiles including the Iskander, which is regularly used against Ukraine. Initial reports suggested the explosion was due to worker error, although later the Russian state TASS news agency reported it was due to 'planned tests' of rocket engines. It is unlikely that Ukrainian uncrewed aerial vehicles were involved in the explosion given the 1,200km distance from Ukraine. Furthermore, no such attacks were reported in the area.
This is at least the fifth unexplained military industrial factory explosion in four months. Previous explosions include the Kamensky chemical plant in Rostov on 15 January 2024; the Chelyabinsk tank factory on 26 November 2023 and gunpowder and ammunition factories in Kotovsk on 10 November 2023 and Solikamsk on 31 October 2023.
There is a realistic possibility that the explosion is due to negligent handling and storing of highly volatile, combustible, and explosive materials. Additionally, senior political pressure to increase military industrial output targets to support the war in Ukraine has likely led to round the clock production and staff fatigue. Increased demands on production will highly likely result in greater numbers of industrial accidents in the future.
1
Posted on 2/9/24 at 4:47 am to cypher
Ukrainian drones struck Russian oil refineries, Security Service source confirms
VALENTYNA ROMANENKO — Friday, 9 February 2024, 11:44
Drones of the Security Service of Ukraine struck the Ilsky and Afipsky oil refineries in Krasnodar Krai, Russia.
Source: Ukrainska Pravda’s source in the SSU
Details: A source said that a large fire occurred as a result of the attack on the Ilsky oil refinery, and that the primary processing unit, which has a capacity of 3.6 million tons of oil per year, was affected. The cost of such a unit is US$50 million.
Quote: "Drones also successfully targeted the Afipsky plant, but the consequences are being clarified."
Details: "Both facilities are located approximately 20 kilometres apart. Local sources reported that the Russians were even forced to scramble military aircraft."
Ukrainska Pravda
VALENTYNA ROMANENKO — Friday, 9 February 2024, 11:44
Drones of the Security Service of Ukraine struck the Ilsky and Afipsky oil refineries in Krasnodar Krai, Russia.
Source: Ukrainska Pravda’s source in the SSU
Details: A source said that a large fire occurred as a result of the attack on the Ilsky oil refinery, and that the primary processing unit, which has a capacity of 3.6 million tons of oil per year, was affected. The cost of such a unit is US$50 million.
Quote: "Drones also successfully targeted the Afipsky plant, but the consequences are being clarified."
Details: "Both facilities are located approximately 20 kilometres apart. Local sources reported that the Russians were even forced to scramble military aircraft."
Ukrainska Pravda
Posted on 2/9/24 at 4:59 am to Obtuse1
quote:
Was it supposed to be a debate with Tucker or an interview with Putin?
Not trying to be disparaging but have you listened to the full 2:07 interview?
Ultimately he just gave Putin a platform to say what he wanted to say. I don't have any real issue with that because I think if you are sane you don't drill down on Putin in Russia. Best case he just talks around your question like he did the 5 or so actual questions Tucker ask and worst case you never make it back out of Russian airspace.
The thing that I learn about everyone that says it was a great interview is they haven't followed the war. Everything that Putin said today (with one exception*) is something he has said before in speeches to Russia. For example the first 35 or so minutes was a near exact copy of the history lesson he gave the Russians shortly after the war began and almost the entire remainder was bits and pieces from other speeches. People that have followed this thread have heard all of this before from his mouth and reiterated from the various talking heads on Russian State TV like Solovyov, Skabeeva, and Simonyan.
*the one new area of discussion centered around the possible release of Evan Gershkovich which Putin wasn't budging on.
I am not jumping on Carlson for this given the circumstances but he did not do a journalistic interview, he merely platformed Putin. I have no problem with people hearing him even though they could have heard everything a year ago if they bothered. When the interviewer talks 4-5 minutes and the interviewee talks for over 2 hours it really isn't hard-hitting journalism and I defy anyone to argue that. I am also not saying Zelensky hasn't been handled with kid gloves by the Western Press but he has been forced to speak to a lot more painful issues than Putin was in the multitude of interviews/speeches he has been allowed.
I give Carlson credit and props for having the courage to even attempt the interview. Like you said there is no way to have a gotcha interview or ground breaking interview with Putin if you still want to breathing after. Carlson knew he was going to get slammed by the US and western media but with his own website and streaming directly to twitter that does not really affect him. However, I will also criticize him for not pressing Putin to actually answer a simple question like if Hungary should be allowed to claim the western parts of Ukraine that were under Hungary's control prior to WW1. Carlson might have done so and the Kremlin edited the footage in which case I would hope that Tucker has the journalist integrity to release the blocked segments once he and his people are safely back in the USA.
Posted on 2/9/24 at 5:04 am to WeeWee
quote:
I will also criticize him for not pressing Putin to actually answer a simple question like if Hungary should be allowed to claim the western parts of Ukraine that were under Hungary's control prior to WW1.
He also didn't push back when Putin said Poland started WWII by being uncooperative with Hitler/Germany.
Posted on 2/9/24 at 5:06 am to Obtuse1
quote:
NOELREPORTS ???? ????
@NOELreports
Commander-in-Chief Oleksandr Syrskyi with his first official message in his new position.
-
Dear comrades-in-arms, with whom I had the honor to serve in the ranks of the Ground Forces of the Armed Forces of Ukraine and the Khortytsia Special Forces Unit!
I thank you for every day of military work spent together in the most difficult areas of the frontline of our liberation war!
Your courage, professionalism, dedication to the defense of the Motherland and perseverance in performing combat missions are the foundation of the stability of our defense and do not allow the enemy to realize its aggressive intentions.
I sincerely thank every soldier, sergeant, officer and general for the joint implementation of operational plans, which allowed us to save the lives of thousands of civilians and save the territory of Ukraine from occupation!
New tasks are on the agenda. First of all, it is a clear and detailed planning of the actions of all military command and control bodies, associations, formations and units, taking into account the needs of the frontline for the latest weapons supplied by international partners.
The fastest and most rational distribution and delivery of everything necessary for combat units has been and remains the main task of military logistics.
Knowing all the needs of the frontline without exception and being aware of the situation in each area is the task of headquarters at all levels. It is the qualifications of military command and control personnel that are crucial for the development and successful implementation of ideas and plans.
The lives and health of servicemen have always been and remain the main value of the Ukrainian army. Therefore, maintaining a balance between performing combat missions and restoring units and subunits with intensified education and training of personnel remains as important as ever.
The introduction of new technical solutions and scaling up of successful experience, such as the use of unmanned systems and modern electronic warfare, is one of the future vectors of building victory in our liberation war.
Only changes and continuous improvement of means and methods of warfare will allow us to succeed on this path.
And, of course, a reliable rear is one of the main components of overall success in the war.
I am grateful to the former leaders of the Armed Forces of Ukraine and to the veterans who have made every effort to restore and build the capabilities of the Ukrainian Army, a true, solid foundation of our statehood, over the 10 years of the Russian-Ukrainian war!
Let us unite! Together to Victory!
Glory to Ukraine!
To lazy to link but it is NoelReports on Twitter.
Posted on 2/9/24 at 5:11 am to Obtuse1
quote:
I will also criticize him for not pressing Putin to actually answer a simple question like if Hungary should be allowed to claim the western parts of Ukraine that were under Hungary's control prior to WW1.
He also didn't push back when Putin said Poland started WWII by being uncooperative with Hitler/Germany.
I litterally spilled my water when Putin said that. I had to rewatch that part 3 times to make sure I heard him right.
Posted on 2/9/24 at 6:24 am to Jim Rockford
ISW Update Feb 8
quote:
Key Takeaways:
Russian President Vladimir Putin attempted to use an interview with American media personality Tucker Carlson published on February 8 to present to a wider Western audience a long-standing Kremlin information operation that falsely asserts that Russia is interested in a negotiated end to its war in Ukraine. Putin illustrated throughout the interview that Russia has no interest in meaningful or legitimate negotiations, however, and that Putin still seeks to destroy Ukraine as a state. Putin also displayed his overarching hostility towards the West and falsely accused the West of forcing Russia to attack Ukraine.
Putin also attempted to use the interview to absurdly reframe Russia as the wronged party and not the initiator of Russia’s unprovoked war of conquest against Ukraine.
Putin continued attempts to justify Russia’s invasions of Ukraine in 2014 and 2022 as responses to Ukraine’s and the West’s actions in order to defend his long-standing calls for regime change in Kyiv and Ukraine’s “demilitarization” “denazification,” and “neutrality.”
Putin continued to propagate pseudo-history in an effort to deny Ukrainian statehood and nationhood.
None of Putin’s rewriting of history justifies Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. The borders of every state in the world have changed over time. International law, which Putin claims to seek to uphold, requires the recognition by all states of each other’s sovereign rights in their territories as recognized by other sovereign states. The Russian Federation has explicitly recognized Ukraine’s sovereignty over its current international borders twice—in 1991 and in 1994. Accepting Putin’s argument for Russia’s right to redesign Ukraine’s borders to his liking by force is an invitation to all powerful states with historical grievances to attack and seize the lands of their neighbors that they covet.
Putin also reiterated a quasi-realist world view that defines weakening the West and dismantling NATO as pre-requisites for the Russian-led multipolar world he desires to create.
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky replaced General Valerii Zaluzhnyi with Ukrainian Ground Forces Commander Colonel General Oleksandr Syrskyi as Ukraine’s Commander-in-Chief on February 8, as part of wider military leadership changes. Such changes are normal for states engaged in a protracted war.
Russian President Vladimir Putin and Chinese President Xi Jinping held a routine phone call on February 8 that underscored China’s hesitance to support Russia’s desired bilateral Russo-Sino relationship while Russia forges deeper partnerships with Iran and North Korea.
Ukrainian and Russian forces conducted a one-to-one prisoner of war (POW) exchange on February 8.
The Ukrainian Main Military Intelligence Directorate (GUR) reported that it recently conducted a cyberattack against the Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD) preventing Russian forces from automatically operating an unspecified number of likely first-person view (FPV) drones.
The Russian Central Election Committee (CEC) refused to register Boris Nadezhdin, the only anti-war Russian presidential candidate, for the March 2024 presidential election likely due to his larger-than-anticipated popularity.
Some Russian and Ukrainian sources claimed that Russian forces are using Starlink in occupied Ukraine.
Ukrainian forces recently made confirmed advances near Kreminna and Russian forces recently made confirmed advances near Kreminna, Avdiivka, and Donetsk City amid continued positional fighting along the entire line of contact on February 8.
The Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD) proposed a draft bill on February 8 to establish a single maximum age for contract service personnel (kontraktniki) during a period of partial mobilization, martial law, or wartime.
Russian authorities are likely setting conditions to falsify voting results in occupied Ukraine in the March 2024 presidential election.
Posted on 2/9/24 at 6:53 am to Obtuse1
quote:
Also, anyone who wants to see the true heart and intention of Putin on the Ukraine issue listen to the last ~3 minutes when he gives his story from the battlefield. This is the only time in the entire interview he strayed from the obvious script. The man who made the point he made will not be satisfied until all of Ukraine is back within Russian control.
Or, that was also part of the script and he is negotiating publicly in an indirect way. Just like when our congressmen make crazy monetary demands for a bill publicly, sometimes they don't even actually want that amount. Ask for more than you want so you can negotiate down, or in Putin's case at least publicly leave the nugget that you [b]might/b] take all of Ukraine so that you can negotiate down to just the ethnic Russian parts. Not saying that is 100% what he was doing, but its certainly possible.
Posted on 2/9/24 at 6:57 am to StormyMcMan
The ISW spin zone update. "Russian president has Russia-centric views and tries to paint Russia in a good light on the world stage by not always telling the truth, story at 11"
You don't make changes if its going well. Especially not from someone who is pretty popular to someone who seems to be good at his job but isn't popular when morale is already a concern.
quote:
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky replaced General Valerii Zaluzhnyi with Ukrainian Ground Forces Commander Colonel General Oleksandr Syrskyi as Ukraine’s Commander-in-Chief on February 8, as part of wider military leadership changes. Such changes are normal for states engaged in a protracted war.
You don't make changes if its going well. Especially not from someone who is pretty popular to someone who seems to be good at his job but isn't popular when morale is already a concern.Posted on 2/9/24 at 7:04 am to Coeur du Tigre
quote:
Basically, his failure to transform the UKR army into more of a Western style organization
In what way? Can this even be achieved when you're bleeding troops?
quote:
his announced acceptance of the current stalemate were the main issues
IDK, I think holding the current lines and striking important Russian targets with missiles and drones isn't a bad play here. Russia dug in, daring Ukraine to follow through on their "We will retake every inch of Ukrainian soil" proclamation. Think going aggressive is playing into their hand.
Posted on 2/9/24 at 7:22 am to Paddyshack
Man, I wish we felt this passionately about defending our own southern border being invaded by cartels, human traffickers, disease carrying illegal migrants from every third world country on Earth.
Instead, we MUST defend the Nazis from the Nazi 5000 miles away.
Instead, we MUST defend the Nazis from the Nazi 5000 miles away.
This post was edited on 2/9/24 at 7:23 am
Posted on 2/9/24 at 7:25 am to Jim Rockford
quote:
There's a faction on the left and right who long for a man on a horse to come and fix everything-and just as important, punish those they don't like. Putin fits that bill for the faction on the right, and a few hard core leninists on the left. IDK if that image brandiñg wàs accidental or deliberate at first, but once they saw it was working, they cultivated it.
I think this is largely the answer, but an answer born from our own perceived weakness and disarray. I think a large section of America has been very frustrated for quite a while, pre-Biden, and Putin’s presentation and stated reasoning for things resonates with what they long for. We had it in a democratic manner in the past, it’s gone, and this segment of America wants it back.
I’m not saying it’s based in reality if you do your own fact checking of Putin so to speak, but I think that’s the answer. 99% of people aren’t going to do basic fact checking much less have followed the war enough to know things he said, like Russia agreeing to pull back from Kiev when they thought they had a peace agreement, is complete bs.
I understand Putin’s appeal based on his presentation and what he says he stands for etc. What he says largely is reasonable, he just doesn’t actually follow it. Family, Christianity, anti-Nazism, even the US being corrupt and currently disorganized are all in the lane of the majority of Americans imo. This majority doesn’t burn things down all the time so it’s not mainstream. They’d rather someone like a Trump, or in this case Putin, do the cultural fighting for them.
Posted on 2/9/24 at 8:01 am to WeeWee
quote:
He also didn't push back when Putin said Poland started WWII by being uncooperative with Hitler/Germany.
I litterally spilled my water when Putin said that. I had to rewatch that part 3 times to make sure I heard him right.
You guys don’t understand that the West doesn’t study history like Russia does. At least that’s what the Poli boys say.
So when Hitler and Stalin cut the deal to partition Poland it was the Poles’ fault? That makes since. It’s just like it is now, It’s Ukraine’s fault Russia invaded.
Posted on 2/9/24 at 8:08 am to doubleb
quote:
So when Hitler and Stalin cut the deal to partition Poland it was the Poles’ fault? That makes since. It’s just like it is now, It’s Ukraine’s fault Russia invaded.
Allowing NAZI Germany to station arms and troops in Russia to train while avoiding notice from the West wasn't helping the NAZI's (full sarc)
Posted on 2/9/24 at 8:43 am to CitizenK
Oh look, it's Rand Paul grandstanding again, while Ukrainians die.
CNN
quote:
The Senate is working to pass a $95.3 billion foreign aid bill with assistance for Ukraine and Israel, but it may be days until a final vote as GOP Sen. Rand Paul of Kentucky has vowed to use arcane and complex chamber rules to slow the pace of passing a bill.
quote:
“I think we should stay here as long as it takes,” Paul told CNN’s Manu Raju. “If it takes a week or a month, I’ll force them to stay here to discuss why they think the border of Ukraine is more important than the US border.”
quote:
The bill includes $60 billion to support Ukraine in its fight against Russia, $14.1 billion in security assistance for Israel, $9.2 billion in humanitarian assistance and $4.8 billion to support regional partners in the Indo-Pacific region, among other provisions, according to the Senate Appropriations Committee.
CNN
Posted on 2/9/24 at 9:04 am to LeClerc
quote:
“I think we should stay here as long as it takes,” Paul told CNN’s Manu Raju. “If it takes a week or a month, I’ll force them to stay here to discuss why they think the border of Ukraine is more important than the US border.”
Valid point
Posted on 2/9/24 at 9:14 am to VolSquatch
quote:
Valid point
Not when the same Republicans refuse to do anything about the southern US border.
Posted on 2/9/24 at 9:22 am to TBoy
quote:
Not when the same Republicans refuse to do anything about the southern US border.
The last deal was so awful and the public backlash so bad that it wouldn't have even passed the senate, McConnell changed course
You can't give billions to other countries, in ways make the border worse than it is now AND fund it with pennies by comparison to the Ukraine money, and then criticize Republicans for not making a deal.
The ball is in the Dems court. If they were smart they would give up some ground and make a deal now, vs Trump ramming through something potentially awful if he wins.
Posted on 2/9/24 at 9:25 am to LeClerc
quote:
I’ll force them to stay here to discuss why they think the border of Ukraine is more important than the US border.”
It’s not.
But ask Paul if the border issues are because we need tougher laws and more money to enforce the laws, or because the President has decided not to enforce the laws in the books now.
This post was edited on 2/9/24 at 9:35 am
Posted on 2/9/24 at 9:26 am to TBoy
quote:
Not when the same Republicans refuse to do anything about the southern US border.
Is the president enforcing the laws we have now, or is he ignoring them and thus encouraging illegals to come?
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