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re: Latest Updates: Russia-Ukraine Conflict
Posted on 2/4/24 at 4:21 pm to WeeWee
Posted on 2/4/24 at 4:21 pm to WeeWee
quote:
According to my cousin who works for Steve Scalise the administration doesn’t have a plan to help Ukraine win.
The administration doesn't want Ukraine to win. It's widely known in European diplomatic and military circles that the reason that Germany has not given Taurus missiles to Ukraine is that Biden has told Scholz not to give them.
Jake Sullivan is still trying to micromanage the war.
3
Posted on 2/4/24 at 4:40 pm to GOP_Tiger
Just in case there were still any doubts:
LINK
LINK
quote:
Zelenskyy in an interview with Rai1 after question about Zaluzhnyi:
"This is a question that concerns the people who should lead Ukraine. A reboot and a new beginning are needed. The replacement of a number of government officials, not only in the military sphere. I'm thinking about replacing, that's true"
This post was edited on 2/4/24 at 4:41 pm
Posted on 2/4/24 at 4:41 pm to WeeWee
Oh I fully agree having 500,000 new troops would be great and better than say 175,000 but you have to think about how many troops can Ukraine train and then outfit for battle? People do t think about little things like helmets, kevlar vests, weapons and ammo, etc that every soldier needs to do his job. I’m not sure where Ukraine stands with their ability to outfit 1/2 million new men at this moment. Then you have to ask where will they find 500,000 more men? Taking young kids and old men that don’t want to fight and forces them anyway isn’t going to do any favors to the regular troop’s morale, especially if they integrate these into battle hardened units. That’s why I said I would take the approach first to call up the max amount of men I can find, train and outfit in a timely manner and then worry about finding more men and material after that.
This is all political for us here in the U.S. though, Biden especially. He is clearly just trying to keep Ukraine alive but not give them the true help to take the attack to Russia. Yes I’m a Trump voter and I don’t want to be political but who would you rather have negotiating between Zelensky and Putin? Biden or Trump? People say Trump is friends with Putin and would take his side and let Ukraine get fricked but people don’t think about who Trump is as a man. He has a big ego and he HATES to lose. If you think he would let Putin get the best of him in a deal to end the war then you haven’t been paying attention. Yes, Trump will tell Ukraine they have to give up some territory but nothing to what Putin really wants. If Putin doesn’t agree then Trump wouldn’t hesitate to flood Ukraine with a shitload of “you should have taken the deal” weapons for Ukraine to hit Russia with. Putin wouldn’t try a lot of the bold things he’s done with just about anyone but Biden and Kamala in office but somehow enough Americans lost their mind enough to vote for a man that needs to be in assisted living and a VP that isn’t qualified to run the fry counter McDonalds and he took advantage of it.
This is all political for us here in the U.S. though, Biden especially. He is clearly just trying to keep Ukraine alive but not give them the true help to take the attack to Russia. Yes I’m a Trump voter and I don’t want to be political but who would you rather have negotiating between Zelensky and Putin? Biden or Trump? People say Trump is friends with Putin and would take his side and let Ukraine get fricked but people don’t think about who Trump is as a man. He has a big ego and he HATES to lose. If you think he would let Putin get the best of him in a deal to end the war then you haven’t been paying attention. Yes, Trump will tell Ukraine they have to give up some territory but nothing to what Putin really wants. If Putin doesn’t agree then Trump wouldn’t hesitate to flood Ukraine with a shitload of “you should have taken the deal” weapons for Ukraine to hit Russia with. Putin wouldn’t try a lot of the bold things he’s done with just about anyone but Biden and Kamala in office but somehow enough Americans lost their mind enough to vote for a man that needs to be in assisted living and a VP that isn’t qualified to run the fry counter McDonalds and he took advantage of it.
Posted on 2/4/24 at 4:52 pm to LSUPilot07
Looks like M1A1 Abrams are being deployed around Avdiivka. That’s one hell of a baptism by fire.
LINK
LINK
Posted on 2/4/24 at 4:54 pm to WeeWee
quote:
Zelensky is listening to the Americans who are telling him just to increase the size of the army by < 100,000 to hold Russia at bay and eventually the sanctions will make Russia collapse. That might happen but it should be plan B or even plan D for how to win the war not plan A.
That may well happen. Regardless of what clueless pundits/journalists of all stripes are saying, the Russian economy is in shambles for 2 to 5 decades. At least 1 per my biz friend former finance director at Gazprom, but likely 2+. Interesting conversation with passenger sitting next to me who is a political independent (cannot stand politics if either party) who is with then State Dept, and was heading the East Timor to negotiate something with them. China wants to spend over $1 billion US to improve their port structure. They hate the Chinese but no one else is offering. Per her, 40 to 50 years wrecked economy by Putin. The Russian economy was already an inefficient one to begin with. They've lost arms sales. They've lost at least 50% of natural gas sales and global prices were only up in Summer of 2022 and back down to 2021. No one is putting up the money to get back 50% of lost pipeline exports. Engineering and equipment suppliers have already pulled out of plans for LNG expansion (Norway has greatly expanded production and Russia will never get that back) Long distance and poor infrastructure make internal pipeline transport already expensive. They don't make much profit on agriculture exports already with short growing seasons and inefficient costly transport internally.
If you buy what Rostat and the Russian Central Bank is selling, I have a snow ski resort in Cocodrie you want to put all of your capital investment into.
Posted on 2/4/24 at 4:55 pm to LSUPilot07
How many of these do you suppose they have in country?
Posted on 2/4/24 at 6:36 pm to LSUPilot07
Hey Pilot, you might want to look at this, but my understanding is the Russian radar is ancient tech compared to US radar, be it in jets or ground/ship air defense.
LINK
LINK
Posted on 2/4/24 at 8:50 pm to GOP_Tiger
quote:
The administration doesn't want Ukraine to win. It's widely known in European diplomatic and military circles that the reason that Germany has not given Taurus missiles to Ukraine is that Biden has told Scholz not to give them. Jake Sullivan is still trying to micromanage the war.
Someone in Ukraine needs to punch Jake Sullivan in the balls then hand him a military history textbook of the Vietnam War so he can see how political micromanaging snatches defeat from the jaws of victory.
Posted on 2/4/24 at 8:53 pm to LSUPilot07
quote:
you have to think about how many troops can Ukraine train and then outfit for battle
According to Wikipedia, Ukrainian has 2.1 million reservists right now. They just have to be called up.
Posted on 2/4/24 at 8:56 pm to ticklechain
quote:
How many of these do you suppose they have in country?
Wikipedia says that all 31 of the pledged M1A1s have been delivered. However, Russia has claimed to have destroyed 153 M1A1s in the last week. We can trust them to report accurately can’t we?
Posted on 2/4/24 at 8:59 pm to LSUPilot07
quote:
who would you rather have negotiating between Zelensky and Putin? Biden or Trump?
Putin invaded Ukraine when Joe Biden was VPOTUS and then again when Joe Biden was POTUS. Putin didn’t invade Ukraine when Trump was POTUS even after Petro Poroshenko provoked him with the Kerch Straits affair. Obviously Putin has more respect and/or fear for Trump than he does Biden.
This post was edited on 2/4/24 at 9:01 pm
Posted on 2/4/24 at 9:00 pm to WeeWee
quote:
However, Russia has claimed to have destroyed 153 M1A1s in the last week.
I wonder how many of them were on the second floor of a factory when hit.
Posted on 2/4/24 at 9:11 pm to Auburn1968
quote:
What is needed is a far better means of de-mining those static defenses. Perhaps, a swarm of ground drones could be equipped to detect mines and deposit a little explosive on each one it finds to all be remotely triggered prior to an attack.
From what I have read from open source intel the Ukrainians have been using drones to identify mines and map the minefields. The problem that the Ukrainians are having is that they are so many mines they can’t clear them quickly and Russia is able to reinforce the fields with artillery launched mines or shell the sappers clearing the mine fields. The Ukrainians need air power to suppress the Russians artillery so they can clear the mines.
Posted on 2/4/24 at 9:20 pm to GOP_Tiger
quote:
The administration doesn't want Ukraine to win.
It's good to see that people are finally waking up to that fact. It has been clear as the nose on your face for at least a year. Biden and his group of incompetent limp wrists are a disaster. Look at the Afghanistan fiasco.
Ukraine is going to pay a tough price for putting any reliance/trust in that corrupt administration.
Posted on 2/4/24 at 9:42 pm to Auburn1968
quote:
Our policy is being lead by the "master mind" who surrendered Afghanistan in the dumbest time and way possible.
quote:
Trump's Afghanistan withdrawal announcement takes US officials by surprise
This article is more than 3 years old
Tweet calling for troops’ return by Christmas puts peace negotiations in jeopardy and was greeted enthusiastically by the Taliban
The Guardian UK October 2020
Posted on 2/4/24 at 9:43 pm to BigAppleTiger
Bump needed to update myself to this thread for historical purposes.
Posted on 2/4/24 at 10:11 pm to CitizenK
Our radars are better than Russia’s but they have made some real gains over the last 15 years, you can also thank China for a lot of that. We are without a doubt though lagging and have been for a little bit now, on our air-to-air missiles capabilities vs. our adversaries and they aren’t great. They are working on and in the final stages of testing a new long range air-air missile finally. What makes our Air Force and Naval aviators the best on the planet are our aircraft and the training of the pilot on the stick of that bird. No matter how much we rely on automated systems, and we really do, it still matters a lot who the guy in the cockpit is. Our training and ability to is of no comparison really. We also have better aircraft and far, far, far, far better logistics (air-air refueling, cargo, etc) than any nation on earth and can move more firepower bigger and faster than any other country. Our Navy’s air wing is also not challenged on Earth. China can’t move fighter aircraft around parts of the globe with as many carrier strike groups are we do although the F-18 Super Hornet is showing its age a bit. Not the Growler though, that is one badass piece of machinery and the best thing they ever did to the F-18. We need to get moving on updating and rolling out the need line of Air Force frontline fighters and bombers. The F-35 and B-21 both need to be hits. The F-35 is doing well with sales which is good. There will be no selling B-21s. They both need to get moving in production so that we stay on top in the air. China is catching up fast on the water. We have really been bad with our ships new production as well as scheduled maintenance and upgrades of the existing fleet on top of the Zumwalt’s absolute failure and the Gerald Ford carrier cost overruns. We still have our carriers and our Arleigh Burke destroyers though which are fantastic ships that pack one hell of a punch. they are our surfaces Navy’s backbone.
Our air defenses are all more or less pretty close to each other if you consider the S-400 Russia’s main air defense weapon but it ‘s not. It’s still the S-300 but they are making more S-400, even with the war. They are all very formidable. Our world dominance is a lie though. There are many nuclear powers and plenty of countries have a very large military. One that many overlook but should really pay attention to is India. They have built up their forces to a formidable level and would be a serious adversary. We need to recommit to our military and focus on the coming 25 years.
Our air defenses are all more or less pretty close to each other if you consider the S-400 Russia’s main air defense weapon but it ‘s not. It’s still the S-300 but they are making more S-400, even with the war. They are all very formidable. Our world dominance is a lie though. There are many nuclear powers and plenty of countries have a very large military. One that many overlook but should really pay attention to is India. They have built up their forces to a formidable level and would be a serious adversary. We need to recommit to our military and focus on the coming 25 years.
This post was edited on 2/5/24 at 3:57 pm
Posted on 2/5/24 at 5:42 am to LSUPilot07
quote:
S-400, even with the war. They are all very formidable
Are you talking about the S-400 which failed to stop western cruise missiles from hitting a shipyard 2 km away from an S-400 battery?
Posted on 2/5/24 at 6:16 am to WeeWee
Feb 4 ISW Update
quote:
Key Takeaways:
Russia's reported reserve concentrations throughout Ukraine largely align with Russia’s assessed priorities along the front, although they are not necessarily indicative of future Russian operations.
The Russian defense industrial base (DIB) is unlikely able to fully support Russia’s reserve manpower despite Russia’s ability to sustain its current tempo of operations and ongoing efforts to expand the Russian DIB.
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky visited the frontline near Robotyne, Zaporizhia Oblast and the Ukrainian Eastern Air Command in Dnipropetrovsk Oblast on February 4.
Russian milbloggers continued to criticize Russian authorities’ failure to properly equip Russian forces with drones and electronic warfare (EW) systems in response to a recent unsuccessful Russian mechanized assault near Novomykhailivka, Donetsk Oblast.
Russian President Vladimir Putin continues to face the authoritarian’s dilemma, whereby his authoritarian regime is itself systematically preventing him from receiving accurate information about military-political realities in Russia.
Russian forces made confirmed advances near Bakhmut, Avdiivka, and Marinka amid continued positional engagements along the entire frontline.
Kremlin newswire TASS reported on February 4 that Vladimir Oblast will be a patron of the new Knyaz Pozharsky Borei-A class nuclear submarine.
Ukrainian officials continue international efforts aimed at returning Ukrainian citizens whom Russian authorities illegally deported to Russia.
Posted on 2/5/24 at 6:30 am to StormyMcMan
British Defence Intelligence
INTELLIGENCE UPDATE
UPDATE ON UKRAINE 05 February 2024
It is unlikely that Russia's planned revenue target for 2024 will be met as laid out in the budget plan. It is likely the government will need to consider other policy measures to fund its planned expenditure.
The Russian government has ambitious plans to increase expenditure by 26 per cent in 2024. This is reliant on optimistic expectations of revenues rising by 22 per cent, with oil and gas revenues expected to increase by almost 25 per cent. It is likely that the government will need to reduce its contributions to the National Wealth Fund and increase domestic taxes and debt to fund its planned expenditure.
These policies will almost certainly have adverse effects on the economy in the medium to long term by maintaining inflationary pressures or constraining future economic growth. The National Wealth Fund is ostensibly for the long-term economic welfare of the Russian people but is increasingly being used to fund its invasion of Ukraine, with the value of its assets falling 10 per cent in 2023.
INTELLIGENCE UPDATE
UPDATE ON UKRAINE 05 February 2024
It is unlikely that Russia's planned revenue target for 2024 will be met as laid out in the budget plan. It is likely the government will need to consider other policy measures to fund its planned expenditure.
The Russian government has ambitious plans to increase expenditure by 26 per cent in 2024. This is reliant on optimistic expectations of revenues rising by 22 per cent, with oil and gas revenues expected to increase by almost 25 per cent. It is likely that the government will need to reduce its contributions to the National Wealth Fund and increase domestic taxes and debt to fund its planned expenditure.
These policies will almost certainly have adverse effects on the economy in the medium to long term by maintaining inflationary pressures or constraining future economic growth. The National Wealth Fund is ostensibly for the long-term economic welfare of the Russian people but is increasingly being used to fund its invasion of Ukraine, with the value of its assets falling 10 per cent in 2023.
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