re: Latest Updates: Russia-Ukraine Conflict

quote:

---

If true, Zelensky is digging his own grave, politically and potentially literally.

---

That may not be factual. Zaluzhny was definitely the guy for the first months but may not be the right guy for more surgical offensive operations.

quote:

---

The fact that Budanov, the guy Zelensky really wants as the face of Ukraine’s military, turned it down should be all Zelensky needed to know. Budanov is right where he needs to be in intelligence and special ops, not worrying about broad front situations or talking with other heads of friendly militaries. He making a big mistake firing a general that is liked by pretty much all. It’s all over mobilization numbers. Zaluzhny wants 500,000, Zelenskyy 70,00. I say come to a compromise of 175,000 to 200,000 men and put this to drama to an end.

---

I disagree that it's all about mobilization. I think it's more accurate to say that mobilization was the final straw that broke the camel's back. And Budanov has been just as vocal as Zaluzhny that 400-500k mobilization is needed.

I think that Zelensky's problems with Zaluzhny include several other things:

* The perception among some that Zaluzhny is working behind the scenes to build a political operation that could ultimately oppose Zelensky.

* Communication issues between Zelensky and Zaluzhny. This goes back well over a year, but it's clear that the two men do not get along and the chain of command is unclear. Zelensky has been known to work around Zaluzhny and directly give orders to generals on the battlefield. With Zelensky lacking confidence in Zaluzhny, it damages military cohesion.

* The failed counteroffensive. On the one hand, people like our WeeWee will say that Zelensky succumbed to political pressure and pushed the military into beginning the counteroffensive before it was ready.

But on the other hand, the design flaws of the offensive are clearly visible in retrospect.

1) It was senseless to waste significant manpower and equipment in the attempt to retake Bakhmut. That should only have been attempted if they were extremely confident of success (obviously not). If those forces had been employed in the south, it's certainly possible that the Ukrainian advance in that sector could have been significantly greater, and the increased strain on Russian supply lines would have altered the entire logistical battle.

2) The decision to attack exactly where Russia expected (in the Robotyne area), where Russia had the deepest minefields and fortifications, and where Russia had positioned its best defenders? That was obviously a poor decision.

3) The attack in the Robotyne was led by the newly-formed and untested 47th brigade. While I certainly understand why Zaluzhny made the decision to give all the new Western equipment to newly-formed brigades, it was disastrous, as the lack of combat experience doomed the offensive to failure. If a brigade such as Azov had instead been given Bradleys and Leopards and trained on them and been employed in Robotyne, then I'm confident that they would've enjoyed much more success.



Personally, I fail to see much evidence for military greatness in Zaluzhny. On the other hand, who would replace him? Budanov would be out of his element and is likely not ready for such a role. Gen. Syrsky could certainly be a candidate, but he's a bit of a jerk and is disliked by the rank and file.

quote:

---

That is an extremely small footprint and not sure how much actual damage that caused which isn't easily repairable.


I'm impressed with their long range drone progress. In May of 2023 all they could do was scratch the Kremlin roof with a drone. Now, less than 9 months later, they are conducting 1 or 2 refinery strikes per week hundreds of Km away.

---

quote:

---

The Swiss Company Destinus has been secretly sending hundreds of drones to Ukraine ???? every month, according to the company CEO. Destinus plans to build a factory in Ukraine (Challenges)

---

LINK

Destinus's CEO is Mikhail Kokorich who is a Russian who renounced his Russian citizenship because of the war. The dude definitely knows drones and rockets and stuff. It does not hurt for Ukraine to have one of Russia's best minds on their side.

quote:

---

That is an extremely small footprint and not sure how much actual damage that caused which isn't easily repairable.

---

Long ago I worked for BASF and visited their Ludwigshafen site a few times. They still had engineers that were at Ludwigshafen during WWII and hearing about it was fascinating. We bombed the hell out of Ludwigshafen - in Churchill's bunker there is a display that shows that the US dropped more bombs on Ludwigshafen than on Berlin. What the BASF engineers told me is that fixing the plants really wasn't that difficult. The piping is designed for high pressure service, mostly, and it took a direct hit to do any serious damage. They usually had the plants up and going in a day or two. The big problem they had was that the bombing also targeted the housing for the plant operators and killed them faster than they could train them. By the end of the war they had a hard time running the plants mostly because of the lack of capable operators.

I agree with you that for most of these drone strikes the damage can be repaired fairly quickly (but not always). But I think the main point is to force Russia to spread their air defense over a huge area which then thins it out at the front and allows a better chance to hit military targets in the combat zones.

British Defence Intelligence
INTELLIGENCE UPDATE
UPDATE ON UKRAINE 4 February 2024

It is highly likely that fewer than 1,000 Russian Wagner mercenaries remain in Belarus. They have been present in the country since June 2023, at which point there were 8,000 Wagner mercenaries. Wagner almost certainly continues to provide training to Belarusian military and security forces.

It is unlikely that Belarusian President Aleksandr Lukashenko would use the Wagner mercenaries beyond their current remit. They are involved in the training of Ministry of Interior troops but are highly unlikely to participate directly in maintaining domestic or border security in Belarus. The continued presence of Wagner mercenaries in Belarus almost certainly also benefits Russia's war effort by compelling Ukraine to maintain defensive positions and personnel along its northern border with Belarus to protect from potential future incursions.

ANALYSIS: Small Drones, Big Booms, Destroyed Russian Tanks

The Battle of Novomykhailivka was important because it confirmed that yes, in Ukraine we are witnessing a military technological revolution. Right now.
by Stefan Korshak | February 4, 2024, 3:24 pm

The (latest) Battle of Novomykhailivka for me was important because it confirmed, with sufficient data that I can point to it and use what the data shows to back up my conclusion, that yes, in Ukraine we are witnessing a military technological revolution. Right now.

Small drones carrying explosives have become so ubiquitous, and so cheap, and operators are becoming so practiced, that we can see that technology, at this very moment, on real battlefields with real battlefield results, supplanting conventional (and often orders-of-magnitude more expensive) weapons like anti-tank missiles, mortars, aircraft firing precision-guided munitions and, to a lesser extent, even artillery.

Now for the qualifications.

I’m not to the point of declaring we are watching a tech change on par with the introduction of the tank. Not yet anyway. It’s apples and oranges when you start talking ranges, and likewise size of explosion. Conventional artillery obviously isn’t going to get replaced if you need a massive explosion in a general area more than, say, three kilometers behind the front lines.

There is also a section at the end where he discusses the ongoing Zelensky - Zaluzhny tension.

The Kyiv Post

quote:

---

It is likely that corruption significantly undermines the effectiveness of the Russian military. There is only a remote chance that significant progress will be made in reducing corruption levels.

---

Nominated for “Understatement of the Year”.

quote:

---

Biden administration just want to keep Ukraine from losing until after 2025 or 2026

---

More like until November 2024 election. After the election, no party/president will want Ukraine to fall under their watch. If one party controls the legislature and the presidency, then they'll want Ukraine to be victorious under their watch.

quote:

---

Biden wants Ukraine support as an election issue this year. And he should. It's one place where his policy has strong popular support. And Trump is working from a far less popular position.

---

Trump always leaves an out. He has stated in two separate major media interviews that he would give Ukraine modern weapons and more off them than they could use if Russia didn't negotiate in good faith. He also knows that his core base of support will buy whatever he sells to them. The GOP legislators are overwhelmingly in favor of the present or future admin presenting a plan to defeat Russia. Otherwise, they don't want to just throw money at an inevitable victory over a decade or two for Russia.

quote:

---

2) The decision to attack exactly where Russia expected (in the Robotyne area), where Russia had the deepest minefields and fortifications, and where Russia had positioned its best defenders? That was obviously a poor decision.

---

What is needed is a far better means of de-mining those static defenses. Perhaps, a swarm of ground drones could be equipped to detect mines and deposit a little explosive on each one it finds to all be remotely triggered prior to an attack.