re: Latest Updates: Russia-Ukraine Conflict

ISW Update

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Key Takeaways:

Ukrainian Commander-in-Chief General Valerii Zaluzhnyi presented an overarching strategy to seize the theater-wide initiative in Ukraine and retain it to facilitate Ukrainian battlefield victories despite Russia’s numerical advantages in manpower and materiel. Zaluzhnyi’s strategy aims to offset Ukraine’s existing challenges and pursue advantages over the Russian military through widespread technological innovation and adaptation.

Ukrainian forces successfully struck and sunk a Russian Black Sea Fleet (BSF) vessel in the Black Sea near occupied Crimea on the night of January 31 to February 1.

Russian milbloggers continued to voice frustrations about Russian forces’ continued tactical blunders during offensive operations in western Donetsk Oblast.

The European Union (EU) unanimously approved a financial support package for Ukraine for 2024 ­­– 2027.

EU High Representative for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy Joseph Borrell stated that the European Union (EU) will not be able to send the promised one million shells to Ukraine by March 2024, but is planning to fulfill this promise by the end of 2024.

Chechen Republic Head Ramzan Kadyrov appointed another one of his children to a senior position in the Chechen government as of January 31.

Russian forces recently made confirmed advances near Kupyansk, Avdiivka, and Donetsk City amid continued positional engagements along the entire line of contact on February 1.

Turkish banks have reportedly started closing Russian companies’ accounts due to the threat of US secondary sanctions.

Russian President Vladimir Putin highlighted Russian plans to integrate occupied territories of Ukraine into Russia over the next six years.

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Corruption is a way of life in Russia, not just military.

New from the Washington Post:

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The government of Ukraine has informed the White House that President Volodymyr Zelensky has decided to fire his top military commander, Gen. Valery Zaluzhny, in what would be the most consequential personnel shake-up of the war, said two people familiar with the discussion.

White House officials did not support or object to the high-stakes decision, but acknowledged it as the president’s sovereign choice, these people said, speaking on the condition of anonymity to discuss the sensitive conversation.

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The early warning also provided the White House an opportunity to urge Zelensky to reconsider the pivotal decision — even though it decided against doing so.

The departure of Zaluzhny, one of the most popular figures in Ukrainian society, could affect troop morale and shake the confidence of Western donors as Ukraine’s military struggles to fend off advancing Russian forces. He and Zelensky have clashed over their divergent strategies for surmounting the battlefield setbacks as the war grinds into its third year.

But any move by the United States to challenge a decision by Zelensky, a popular figure in his own right, who has speculated privately that a new commander could rejuvenate Kyiv’s fortunes, could be seen as exercising undue influence.

“The perception of division at the top in Kyiv is not helpful for Ukraine, but the U.S. government should not get entangled in it,” said Steven Pifer, an Eastern Europe expert at Stanford University and a former U.S. ambassador to Ukraine.

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ISW Update

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Key Takeaways:

Russian President Vladimir Putin evoked a wide Russian social and economic mobilization reminiscent of the Soviet Union’s total mobilization during the Second World War during a February 2 speech despite the fact that Russia is undertaking a far more gradual but nonetheless effective mobilization of its defense industrial base (DIB).

 Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu stated on February 2 that Russian forces retain the “strategic initiative” along the entire frontline in Ukraine, a notable departure from Shoigu’s previous characterization of Russian operations as “active defense.”

Open-source investigations indicate that Russian forces are benefitting from Ukraine’s ammunition shortage and inability to conduct sufficient counterbattery warfare.

US State Department Spokesperson Matthew Miller reiterated on February 1 that Russian President Vladimir Putin has repeatedly indicated that he has not changed his aims to capture and subjugate Ukraine.

Russian milbloggers and ultranationalist figures continue to present themselves as impartial and constructive critics of the Russian military in juxtaposition to official Kremlin sources in the Russian information space.

Kremlin affiliates reportedly launched an information campaign wherein prominent social media influencers promote the Russian Orthodox Church.

Russian forces recently made confirmed advances near Avdiivka and in the Donetsk-Zaporizhia Oblast border area amid continued positional engagements along the entire line of contact on February 2.

Russian outlet Izvestiya stated on February 2, citing sources within the Russian military, that the Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD) is forming air defense units as part of assault units to defend Russian infantry against Ukrainian drones, frontline air strikes, and shelling.

Ukrainian and Canadian officials announced a new coalition to return Ukrainian children from Russia to Ukraine.

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The fact that Budanov, the guy Zelensky really wants as the face of Ukraine’s military, turned it down should be all Zelensky needed to know. Budanov is right where he needs to be in intelligence and special ops, not worrying about broad front situations or talking with other heads of friendly militaries. He making a big mistake firing a general that is liked by pretty much all. It’s all over mobilization numbers. Zaluzhny wants 500,000, Zelenskyy 70,00. I say come to a compromise of 175,000 to 200,000 men and put this to drama to an end. 175,000 new men would be more than enough to help build up ground down units and even start a few new brigades. I agree with Zelensky that 500,000 is way too high. Ukraine is big, but it isn’t Russia. They will always be outnumbered but i’d rather be outnumbered with troops that are properly equipped and had time to go through training than a bunch of guys stealing shite from others and it being a big shitshow. It takes a lot to properly outfit just one soldier when you think about it. 500,000 of them would just be almost impossible plus they would have to resort to some really terrible, dirty things to get 500K new men. Put out the call for a reasonable number of new troops and hope they answer the call. You can’t pull people off the street or out of their homes, they will be useless in combat anyway.

In other news Bulgaria is starting to send 100 of its old BTR-60 APCs to Ukraine. They are old but still used by both sides regularly. I suppose something is better than nothing.

LINK

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I do not know whether Ukraine will be able to return Crimea, but I believe that it will be able to return Donetsk and Luhansk, Polish President Duda has said

At the same time, the head of state noted that even if the Russians manage to keep at least some Ukrainian territories, it will be a victory for them.

"And then the possibility of a new attack from Russia will be very high."

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LINK

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Relatives of mobilized russians came to a rally in the center of moscow with the demand to return their soldiers home after 500 days of mobilization, — russian mass media.

It is reported that the wives and mothers of the mobilized have been going to rallies every Saturday for more than a month with posters that read "They are not waiting there. They are being killed there. They are waiting for their men there" and "Don't take weapons. Take flowers."

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LINK

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Ukrainian drones attacked a Lukoil oil refinery in the Krasnoarmeysky District, Volgograd region in Russia. UP reports the involvement of Ukrainian SBU. It is reported that this refinery is the largest producer of petroleum products in the Southern Federal District of Russia.

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LINK

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As reported, on the night of Saturday, February 3, a fire broke out at the Volgograd oil refinery, covering an area of 300 square meters. Volgograd Region Governor Andriy Bocharov said the fire was caused by a downed drone.

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That is an extremely small footprint and not sure how much actual damage that caused which isn't easily repairable. That is maybe the footprint of one of the fired heaters. There are 3 of these. Diameter of the crude distillation tower (column) should be 17 to 20 feet. It would likely be rated for at least 50 psig @ say 900 Deg F. If it was replaced during the recent upgrades, 347 grade stainless steel to handle high sulfur crude feedstock.

Though costly, feedstock for downstream units will easily be able to be supplied from other refineries. Russia doesn't care just like they don't care about their meat waves.

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The government of Ukraine has informed the White House that President Volodymyr Zelensky has decided to fire his top military commander, Gen. Valery Zaluzhny, in what would be the most consequential personnel shake-up of the war, said two people familiar with the discussion.

White House officials did not support or object to the high-stakes decision, but acknowledged it as the president’s sovereign choice, these people said, speaking on the condition of anonymity to discuss the sensitive conversation.

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If true, Zelensky is digging his own grave, politically and potentially literally.

Every military expert I've ever seen agrees that Zaluzhny has done an excellent job of marshaling forces, defending the state and keeping Ukraine alive. Getting rid of him could be a disaster.

There's no guarantee whoever replaces Zaluzhny does a better job. There's no guarantee whoever replaces Zaluzhny is capable of maintaining the Ukrainian defense. It's a high-risk, low-reward decision for no discernable reason.

The drones aren't being launched from Ukraine, if that's what you're thinking? They're being launched from inside of Russia. Ukraine sends saboteurs over the border.