re: Latest Updates: Russia-Ukraine Conflict

ISW Update

quote:

---

Key Takeaways:

US Senate negotiators unveiled their proposed supplemental appropriations bill on February 4 that — if passed — would provide roughly $60 billion of security assistance for Ukraine, the overwhelming majority of which would go to American companies and US and allied militaries.

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky stated on February 4 that Ukraine needs to replace a “series of state leaders” across the Ukrainian government who are “not just in a single sector” such as the Ukrainian military.

The Kremlin is intensifying rhetoric pushing for the hypothetical partition of Ukraine by seizing on innocuous and unrelated topics, likely in an attempt to normalize the partition narrative in Western discussions about Ukraine.

Delays in Western security assistance continue to exacerbate Ukraine’s shell shortage and undermine Ukraine’s ability to use high-value Western counterbattery systems.

The Kremlin may not allow Boris Nadezhdin, the only anti-war Russian presidential candidate, to run in the March 2024 presidential election due to Nadezhdin’s larger-than-anticipated popularity.

The Kremlin is reportedly nationalizing private enterprises in Russia quietly.

Russian forces made confirmed gains near Kupyansk, Kreminna, Avdiivka, and northeast of Bakhmut amid continued positional fighting along the entire frontline.

The Russian Federal Security Service (FSB) may expand the list of courses available to women at the FSB Academy.

Russian occupation administrations continue efforts to indoctrinate Ukrainian children into Russian culture and nationalism through patronage networks with Russian federal subjects (regions).

---

British Defence Intelligence
INTELLIGENCE UPDATE
UPDATE ON UKRAINE 06 February 2024

On 1 February 2024, Ukraine's Main Directorate of Intelligence claimed it had sunk the TARANTUL-III-class IVANOVETS, a Russian missile corvette. Open-source video footage from different angles shows multiple uncrewed surface vehicles using swarming tactics to successfully strike the ship, resulting in a large explosion, almost certainly resulting in the ship sinking.

The IVANOVETS was patrolling Crimea's western coast in support of Russia's ongoing occupation of Ukraine. Its sophisticated 'Light Bulb' uplink allows it to send and receive targeting data to and from other ships, helicopters, and long-range patrol aircraft.

This latest Ukrainian success highlights the continuing vulnerability of Russian warships operating in the Black Sea. It will highly likely have an impact on the Black Sea Fleet's command and control elements, probably forcing them to re-evaluate their manoeuvrability near western Crimea. However, the Russian Navy is almost certainly still able to conduct its three main tasks in the Black Sea: long-range strike, patrol and support.

quote:

---

Bloomberg reported on Jan. 23 that Russian seaborne crude oil exports hit their lowest level in two months in the wake of an alleged attack on the Novatek gas plant near St. Petersburg overnight on Jan. 21.

---

The Novatek "gas plant" is actually an NGL's fractionation plant. It receives condensate, which is rich in NGL's (ethane, propane, and butane) The plant is a similar process to an idle one I am putting together a proposal to buy. Condensate is also known as natural gasoline, and low in RON (octane) so needs to be isomerized into usable gasoline at around 88 RON. It may have a butamer unit which converts N butane into Isobutane. Isobutane is the feedstock for an alkylation unit with the alkylate being blended into gasoline. The condensate may also have diesel fractions in it. It may also have traces of ethane which is just blended with the propane.

Such plants are not so common in the US any longer, except at storage hubs for NGL's. Mont Belvieu is a major on in the US where Enterprise Products, Kinder Morgan and Oneok have larger plants at that salt dome storage. Pipelines from LA, NM and Texas ship what is called Y-Grade Ethane or even Y grade propane to central locations like this. These plants used to be smaller and scattered in LA, NM and Texas. This plant in Russia is much larger than the one I am looking at but smaller than those at Mont Belvieu.

WeeWee I’ve been banging that same drum for what seems like years now about our Super Cobras just sitting around when they could be easily taught by Ukrainian helicopter pilots (the cream of the crop would be the guys that should fly them) to fly and have a counter to Russia’s Ka-52. Training would take months like any aircraft but it would be so worth it, especially when Russia tries it’s huge armor led attacks to have a flight of Super Cobras sending Hellfires or TOW missiles up their asses while they are banging away on their 20 mm gatling gun. Hell for that matter they could even send them some MH-6 Little Birds that can carry Hellfires and unguided rocket pods and wouldn’t take very long to train their pilots on either. Those are very capable little helicopters and there’s a reason our special forces love them.

As far as the first group of 6 F-16 pilots, they will 100% be trained in SEAD missions so you can put that one to bed. The big problem here is pilot fatigue. I fear they are going to have to initially fly these guys ragged like the Luftwaffe did their pilots in the Russian front in WWII which is where the phrase “fly till you die” came into existence. By 1944 the Luftwaffe was severely suffering not from a lack of available fighters, but a lack of trained pilots to fly them. They would quickly train these 19 year old kids, let them do a few practice runs more about takeoffs and landing than actual arial combat, and then send them up to get shot down and killed in their first couple missions. Our P-51 pilots absolutely chewed those guys up and spit them out which is what made Adolf Galland hate Hermann Goring’s guts because he actually cared about saving his pilot’s lives when he knew the war was lost when we were coming over Germany with 200+ B-17s being protected by 100 P-51s.

quote:

---

This disinformation BS has to stop.

---

Unfortunately.. some people will not let historical fact get in the way of believing a narrative that fits their worldview....

quote:

---

This never happened.

---

quote:

---

actually the U.S. began poking Russia in 1947 when we basically told them to eat shite because they’re communist assholes. It was called the Truman Doctrine.


What has followed since then has been a series of Russia and the U.S. poking each other for 70 years.

You should read a history book sometime; some pretty wild stuff in there.

---

That wasn't Russia. It was the Soviet Union. There's a huge difference, and you're too much of an idiot to understand it.

If you think the Bolshevik Revolution was run by Russians, you should just go report to the nursing home and tell them you're turning yourself in.

Sad but a lot of blind folks who were RuPaul followers where the drapes don't match the shades. One of the biggest spenders in congress with his campaign staff benefitting with contracts for his earmarks.

The only reason that heavily unionized area of Texas kept him in office was he made the money flow.

quote:

---

Secretary of State James Baker’s famous “not one inch eastward” assurance about NATO expansion in his meeting with Soviet leader Mikhail Gorbachev on February 9, 1990, was part of a cascade of assurances about Soviet security given by Western leaders to Gorbachev and other Soviet officials throughout the process of German unification in 1990 and on into 1991, according to declassified U.S., Soviet, German, British and French documents posted today by the National Security Archive at George Washington University

---

Soviet security ceased being a thing circa 1991.

Where in these 1990 talks were there any guarantees for Russia?

quote:

---

That wasn't Russia. It was the Soviet Union. There's a huge difference, and you're too much of an idiot to understand it.

---

Oooph and then your next post without even a damn sense of irony