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re: Latest Updates: Russia-Ukraine Conflict
Posted on 1/20/24 at 10:11 pm to cypher
Posted on 1/20/24 at 10:11 pm to cypher
quote:
Looking like a LNG terminal got hit.
Good This war is also good for South Louisiana and Texas.
It seems as though the Ukrainians are now able to return some favors about infrastructure bombing. I like it.
0
Posted on 1/20/24 at 10:33 pm to CitizenK
Didn’t Biden block leases in Alaska and La. abd in other federal lands?
Posted on 1/21/24 at 5:10 am to doubleb
quote:He held them up. Some of those leases were handed back in after nothing commercially viable found or too difficult to drill safely. The lease where the BP Macondo spill came from had been turned back in by Texaco over a decade earlier. It was picked up by Dominion but they decide not to even attempt to drill and turned back over to Feds.
Didn’t Biden block leases in Alaska and La. abd in other federal lands?
Posted on 1/21/24 at 5:14 am to cypher
quote:
Ust-Luga is the largest oil port in Russia and also the terminus of the Baltic Pipeline System-2 (BPS-2), which is designed to carry 30 million tons of oil annually.
So around 220 million barrels per year, or an average of 600 thousand barrels per day.
There is no LNG terminal there. There is an LPG terminal (petrochemical feedstock) The LNG terminals are in Murmansk or Sakhalin Island.
This post was edited on 1/21/24 at 5:26 am
Posted on 1/21/24 at 5:42 am to CitizenK
The US exports over 10X more LPG to China than Russia does and that is where most of it going to at a huge discount from Russia.
Posted on 1/21/24 at 6:14 am to CitizenK
FWIW, the natural gas price at Europe's trading hub, TTF, is lower than any point between May 2021 and Feb 2022.
Now tell me again that Nordstream WASN'T built for political reasons.
Now tell me again that Nordstream WASN'T built for political reasons.
Posted on 1/21/24 at 7:55 am to CitizenK
quote:
So around 220 million barrels per year, or an average of 600 thousand barrels per day.
There is no LNG terminal there. There is an LPG terminal (petrochemical feedstock) The LNG terminals are in Murmansk or Sakhalin Island.
This is what I am seeing as more info becomes available.
Russian media report a drone attack on Novatek plant in Leningrad region last night.
The Novatek plant in Ust-Luga processes stable gas condensate, the final products being oil, kerosene, diesel fraction and fuel oil. The plant is located in the coastal zone, next to a specialized terminal where products and gas condensate itself are loaded onto ships and sent for export (and the money then used to finance the war with Ukraine).
This post was edited on 1/21/24 at 7:58 am
Posted on 1/21/24 at 8:03 am to cypher
Kyiv Confirms Successful Drone Attack on Military Factory in Russia’s Tula Region
Russia’s Shcheglovsky Val defense enterprise manufactured Pantsir-S missile systems, developed guided weapons for its ground forces, air defense systems, quick-firing cannons and small arms.
Ukraine successfully attacked a military factory in Russia’s Tula region late on Saturday, Jan. 20, a source in the Special Services of Ukraine told Kyiv Post. Air defenses kicked into action in the cities of Orel and Smolensk.
Ukrainian drones targeted the Shcheglovsky Val defense enterprise in the Tula region, where Russia manufactured Pantsir-S surface-to-air missile systems and developed guided weapons for ground forces, air defense systems, quick-firing cannons and combat small arms.
The Kyiv Post
several other facilities were targeted according to Ukrainska Pravda.
Ukraine's security services target Russian facilities in Tula, Smolensk and Oryol
Russia’s Shcheglovsky Val defense enterprise manufactured Pantsir-S missile systems, developed guided weapons for its ground forces, air defense systems, quick-firing cannons and small arms.
Ukraine successfully attacked a military factory in Russia’s Tula region late on Saturday, Jan. 20, a source in the Special Services of Ukraine told Kyiv Post. Air defenses kicked into action in the cities of Orel and Smolensk.
Ukrainian drones targeted the Shcheglovsky Val defense enterprise in the Tula region, where Russia manufactured Pantsir-S surface-to-air missile systems and developed guided weapons for ground forces, air defense systems, quick-firing cannons and combat small arms.
The Kyiv Post
several other facilities were targeted according to Ukrainska Pravda.
Ukraine's security services target Russian facilities in Tula, Smolensk and Oryol
This post was edited on 1/21/24 at 8:08 am
Posted on 1/21/24 at 8:23 am to cypher
quote:
The Novatek plant in Ust-Luga processes stable gas condensate, the final products being oil, kerosene, diesel fraction and fuel oil. The plant is located in the coastal zone, next to a specialized terminal where products and gas condensate itself are loaded onto ships and sent for export (and the money then used to finance the war with Ukraine).
I doubt any fuel oil in condensate, if any it would just above 0%.
Posted on 1/21/24 at 12:09 pm to CitizenK
As Trump says “drill baby drill”. Biden can take his green energy initiative from his extreme left handlers that tell him what to do and shove it up his arse.
This post was edited on 1/21/24 at 12:44 pm
Posted on 1/21/24 at 1:34 pm to LSUPilot07
quote:
As Trump says “drill baby drill”. Biden can take his green energy initiative from his extreme left handlers that tell him what to do and shove it up his arse.
This is all window dressing, drilling slows when price has dropped below $70, and drilling for natural gas stops when below $3. Drilling just for natural gas is not busy at all.
BTW, refineries don't really like tight shale oil due it's got issues with being too light and causes them to lose throughput capacity. Pipelines don't want oil too high in paraffin wax. Some tight shale has not gotten paid over $40 because of the paraffin wax issue. Biden did approve a shortline railroad to Unitah Basin in Utah which would be close to a million barrel per day production but instead is under 100,000 BPD because it is very high in paraffin wax content and is only transported by truck or rail.
This post was edited on 1/21/24 at 1:45 pm
Posted on 1/21/24 at 1:42 pm to LSUPilot07
quote:
As Trump says “drill baby drill”. Biden can take his green energy initiative from his extreme left handlers that tell him what to do and shove it up his arse.
One guy is setting records for most domestic production, the other guy was president during the largest reduction of domestic oil production in our history. Neither guys supporters would claim them based on my descriptions
Posted on 1/21/24 at 9:07 pm to MoarKilometers
Isw update.
quote:
Key Takeaways:
Ukrainian forces reportedly conducted successful drone strikes against targets in Leningrad and Tula oblasts, where repeated Ukrainian drone strikes may fix Russian short-range air defense systems defending potentially significant targets along expected flight routes.
Moldovan authorities accused Russian peacekeepers in Transnistria of numerous violations, including the improper use of drones, while conducting exercises in late December 2023, prompting an information attack by a pro-Kremlin mouthpiece.
Russia is likely intensifying relations with North Korea as part of an effort to procure more artillery ammunition from abroad amid Russian munition shortages.
Russian forces advanced near Avdiivka amid continued positional engagements along the front.
Russian opposition outlet Mobilization News reported on January 21 that likely Russian military commanders are mistreating troops at a training ground in Volgograd Oblast.
Russian federal subjects continue to foster patronage networks in occupied Ukraine.
Posted on 1/22/24 at 5:58 am to StormyMcMan
British Defence Intelligence
INTELLIGENCE UPDATE
UPDATE ON UKRAINE 22 January 2024
Ukraine's ports exported more agricultural products in December 2023 than at any other point since Russia's invasion, almost certainly driven by the reopening of Ukraine's main Black Sea ports and establishment of a unilateral shipping export channel. It has surpassed monthly volumes achieved during the UN- and Turkey-brokered Black Sea Grain initiative, which was subject to Russian inspections.
Ukraine has achieved this because it has largely prevented the Russian Black Sea Fleet from operating in the western Black Sea, where it is held at risk by Ukrainian missiles and uncrewed surface vessels. Market confidence is supported by the UK-brokered reduction in insurance premiums through the Unity Facility insurance package and the announcement that Turkey, Romania and Bulgaria have formed a naval mine countermeasures force.
The health of this export route is vital in the long term: both for Ukraine's export revenue; and as a symbol that both sides are willing to suspend attacks on civilian shipping, paving the way to diminished risk and greater trade for all in the Black Sea.
INTELLIGENCE UPDATE
UPDATE ON UKRAINE 22 January 2024
Ukraine's ports exported more agricultural products in December 2023 than at any other point since Russia's invasion, almost certainly driven by the reopening of Ukraine's main Black Sea ports and establishment of a unilateral shipping export channel. It has surpassed monthly volumes achieved during the UN- and Turkey-brokered Black Sea Grain initiative, which was subject to Russian inspections.
Ukraine has achieved this because it has largely prevented the Russian Black Sea Fleet from operating in the western Black Sea, where it is held at risk by Ukrainian missiles and uncrewed surface vessels. Market confidence is supported by the UK-brokered reduction in insurance premiums through the Unity Facility insurance package and the announcement that Turkey, Romania and Bulgaria have formed a naval mine countermeasures force.
The health of this export route is vital in the long term: both for Ukraine's export revenue; and as a symbol that both sides are willing to suspend attacks on civilian shipping, paving the way to diminished risk and greater trade for all in the Black Sea.
Posted on 1/22/24 at 6:11 am to MoarKilometers
Exploration and production isn't instantaneous.
Couple those factors with world economic policies and that pretty much explains the seemingly contradictory production numbers.
Obviously, Biden sucks hard at the green tit, and Trump clearly favors domestic production for our energy needs.
Couple those factors with world economic policies and that pretty much explains the seemingly contradictory production numbers.
Obviously, Biden sucks hard at the green tit, and Trump clearly favors domestic production for our energy needs.
Posted on 1/22/24 at 7:11 am to N2cars
quote:
Exploration and production isn't instantaneous.
Couple those factors with world economic policies and that pretty much explains the seemingly contradictory production numbers.
Obviously, Biden sucks hard at the green tit, and Trump clearly favors domestic production for our energy needs.
The really interesting part is that over 2 million barrels per day of stripper wells were lost forever in 2020 due lockdowns, so under Biden it is a much larger increase in new production than the overall production rate indicates. A number of indie oil companies folded as a result of 2020, just like many did in 2014/15 with that price collapse. The ignorant public can only see that gasoline was all but given away for free in 2020, as refineries closed for good, or were about to do so. Bidenomics had zero to do with that.
FTR, I haven't voted for any Democrat since the 1970's when almost all local races in Louisiana were Dem candidates only.
Posted on 1/22/24 at 8:06 am to CitizenK
details of Ukrainian long range drone strikes and Russian air defense issues from ISW...
Ukrainian forces reportedly conducted successful drone strikes against targets in Leningrad and Tula oblasts, where repeated Ukrainian drone strikes may fix Russian short-range air defense systems defending potentially significant targets along expected flight routes. Ukrainian media, citing unnamed sources within Ukrainian special services, reported that Ukrainian forces conducted drone strikes against the Shcheglovsky Val Plant in Tula City, Tula Oblast and the “Novateka” plant and gas terminal near the port of Ust-Luga, Leningrad Oblast on the night of January 20 to 21.[1] The Shcheglovsky Val Plant reportedly manufactures Pantsir-S and Pantsir-S1 air defense systems, and the Ust-Luga complex reportedly processes stable gas condensate into light and heavy naphtha, diesel, kerosene, and naval fuel.[2] Russian sources amplified footage claiming to show explosions in Tula City and Ust-Luga, presumably the results of successful Ukrainian strikes.[3] Geolocated footage published on January 20 shows additional explosions over Smolensk City, indicating possible Ukrainian strikes in the area.[4] The Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD) claimed that Russian air defenses destroyed five drones over Tula, Oryol, and Smolensk oblasts.[5] Ukrainian forces reportedly conducted a successful drone strike on Russian military facilities in Leningrad Oblast on January 18.[6]
A Russian insider source claimed on January 21 that Russian air defense coverage over Leningrad Oblast is poor and indicated that Russian air defenses in Leningrad Oblast are likely not arrayed to defend against strikes from the south.[7] Russian air defense systems in Leningrad Oblast are most likely positioned to defend against strikes from the northwest and west, as Russia has historically arrayed its air defense in the area to defend against hypothetical NATO attacks.[8] The Russian military is currently reforming the Leningrad Military District (LMD) with the expressed intent to prepare for a potential future conventional war against NATO and may be arranging military assets in a way to posture along the border with NATO members.[9] Ukrainian strikes in Leningrad Oblast may prompt Russian forces to reposition short-range air defense systems along expected flight routes of Ukrainian drones to defend potential targets of strategic value. Russian forces using short-range systems such as the Pantsir may not be able to cover all important potential targets in Leningrad Oblast without bringing additional systems into the area, and continued Ukrainian strikes in deep rear areas in Russia may thus increase pressure on Russia’s air defenses overall.
ISW - Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, January 21, 2024
Ukrainian forces reportedly conducted successful drone strikes against targets in Leningrad and Tula oblasts, where repeated Ukrainian drone strikes may fix Russian short-range air defense systems defending potentially significant targets along expected flight routes. Ukrainian media, citing unnamed sources within Ukrainian special services, reported that Ukrainian forces conducted drone strikes against the Shcheglovsky Val Plant in Tula City, Tula Oblast and the “Novateka” plant and gas terminal near the port of Ust-Luga, Leningrad Oblast on the night of January 20 to 21.[1] The Shcheglovsky Val Plant reportedly manufactures Pantsir-S and Pantsir-S1 air defense systems, and the Ust-Luga complex reportedly processes stable gas condensate into light and heavy naphtha, diesel, kerosene, and naval fuel.[2] Russian sources amplified footage claiming to show explosions in Tula City and Ust-Luga, presumably the results of successful Ukrainian strikes.[3] Geolocated footage published on January 20 shows additional explosions over Smolensk City, indicating possible Ukrainian strikes in the area.[4] The Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD) claimed that Russian air defenses destroyed five drones over Tula, Oryol, and Smolensk oblasts.[5] Ukrainian forces reportedly conducted a successful drone strike on Russian military facilities in Leningrad Oblast on January 18.[6]
A Russian insider source claimed on January 21 that Russian air defense coverage over Leningrad Oblast is poor and indicated that Russian air defenses in Leningrad Oblast are likely not arrayed to defend against strikes from the south.[7] Russian air defense systems in Leningrad Oblast are most likely positioned to defend against strikes from the northwest and west, as Russia has historically arrayed its air defense in the area to defend against hypothetical NATO attacks.[8] The Russian military is currently reforming the Leningrad Military District (LMD) with the expressed intent to prepare for a potential future conventional war against NATO and may be arranging military assets in a way to posture along the border with NATO members.[9] Ukrainian strikes in Leningrad Oblast may prompt Russian forces to reposition short-range air defense systems along expected flight routes of Ukrainian drones to defend potential targets of strategic value. Russian forces using short-range systems such as the Pantsir may not be able to cover all important potential targets in Leningrad Oblast without bringing additional systems into the area, and continued Ukrainian strikes in deep rear areas in Russia may thus increase pressure on Russia’s air defenses overall.
ISW - Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, January 21, 2024
Posted on 1/22/24 at 8:17 am to cypher
quote:
details of Ukrainian long range drone strikes and Russian air defense issues from ISW..
Yes, it was quite a week.
A-50 and Il-22 aircraft destroyed and damaged, respectively;
Massive protests and clashes with the police in Bashkortostan;
Massive collapses in communal infrastructure in numerous Russian cities;
Drone attack on Tambov gunpowder plant;
First drones reached Leningrad region - one of them exploded at the territory of Petersburg oil terminal, the other at the Novatek [GTL] plant;
Massive fire on an oil reservoir in Bryansk region - reportedly, over 3,100 tonnes of oil was in the burned down reservoirs. It took two days to put out the fire;
Lukoil oil refinery in Nizhniy Novgorod had to stop a large part of its equipment for making petrol - the equipment broke down, and there is no replacement due to sanctions.
The Russian cities of Tula, Smolensk, and Oryol were attacked by drones, Russian media report.
Reportedly, the target of the attack in Tula was the Shcheglovsky Val military plant.
This plant manufactures military equipment for the front (Pantsyr MANPADS) and modernizes armored vehicles.
Per Gerashchenko.
This post was edited on 1/22/24 at 8:19 am
Posted on 1/22/24 at 8:32 am to Coeur du Tigre
Here's a pro-Ukrainian opinion article from The Kyiv Post describing some of Ukraine's recent tactics, including the 3 Patriot ambushes.
ANALYSIS: Turning of the Screw: A Shift in Ukrainian Tactics
ANALYSIS: Turning of the Screw: A Shift in Ukrainian Tactics
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