re: Latest Updates: Russia-Ukraine Conflict

If i’m not mistaken Ukraine is producing 152 mm and 122 mm shells somewhere but not sure about the amount it can actually produce.

ISW update Jan 19th

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Key Takeaways:

Russia is conducting an information operation to misrepresent NATO’s defensive Steadfast Defender 2024 exercises – a response to Russia’s aggression against Ukraine and Russian threats directed towards NATO members - as provocative.

Russian forces will be able to determine the location, tempo, and operational requirements of fighting in Ukraine if Ukraine commits itself to defensive operations throughout 2024 as some US officials are reportedly pressing Kyiv to do.

Ukraine would risk consuming resources it hoped to conserve for its own counteroffensive operations in efforts to stop continuing Russian attacks, likely while losing ground, if it went over to the strategic defensive as some US officials are apparently recommending. The side in war that holds the initiative generally has the advantage, and it is unwise to suggest that Ukraine should cede that advantage to Russia for longer than is absolutely necessary.

US officials reportedly assess that Ukraine will have to fight a long war and continue efforts to secure as much security assistance as possible for Ukraine before 2025 while expecting that positional fighting may continue in Ukraine until 2026.

ISW continues to assess that the positional war in Ukraine is not a stable stalemate and could be tipped in either direction by decisions made in the West and Russia and that the collapse of Western aid to Ukraine would likely lead to the eventual collapse of Ukraine’s ability to hold off the Russian military and significant Russian advances further west, likely all the way to the western Ukrainian border with NATO member states

Russia is trying to mend its relationship with South Korea to mitigate the impacts of its growing reliance on North Korea.

Protests in support of an imprisoned prominent Bashkort activist continued in the Republic of Bashkortostan, but Kremlin mouthpieces denied reports that the protests are significant in scale.

The Russian government continues efforts to codify legal oversight of the activities of migrants living in Russia.

Russian President Vladimir Putin signed a decree allocating funds for the search, registration, and legal protection of Russian property abroad, which includes property in former territories of the Russian Empire and Soviet Union.

Russian forces recently made confirmed advances southeast of Kupyansk, and Ukrainian forces recently regained positions southeast of Kupyansk amid continued positional engagements along the entire line of contact.

The Donetsk People’s Republic (DNR) “Vostok” Battalion stated on January 19 that it will resume fighting on the frontlines in Ukraine when the period of positional fighting ends and will “continue to serve” after the war, presumably subordinated to Rosgvardia.

Russian occupation authorities continue to leverage the provision of social benefits and healthcare to augment passportization efforts in occupied Ukraine.

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British Defence Intelligence
INTELLIGENCE UPDATE
UPDATE ON UKRAINE 20 January 2024

Ukraine maintains a presence on the left bank of the Dnipro River and has continued to repel Russian attacks despite logistical concerns. On 16 January 2024, a spokesperson for Ukraine's Southern Defence Forces remarked that logistical supply on the left bank of the Dnipro had faced difficulties.

Russia's Dnipr Grouping of Forces has been unsuccessful in all its attempts to dislodge the Ukrainian defenders, despite almost certainly having a significant advantage in the balance of forces on this axis. It is highly likely that the poor training and coordination of Russian forces in the area is limiting their offensive capabilities.

Forcing Ukraine to withdraw its forces from the left bank of the Dnipro remains a priority operational objective for Russia. It is highly likely Russia will persist with attacks in the Krynky area in the coming weeks despite growing personnel losses.

Air Force: Russian air defense sufficient on front lines, in Crimea but not on Russian soil

by Dinara Khalilova and The Kyiv Independent news desk January 20, 2024 4:14 PM

Russia has a sufficient capacity of air defense on Ukraine's front lines and in occupied Crimea but not on Russian soil, Yurii Ihnat, a spokesperson for Ukraine's Air Force, said in an interview for Focus media outlet published on Jan. 20.

Ihnat's statement follows reports that Ukrainian drones attacked oil depots in Klintsy in Russia's Bryansk region and the Russian city of Saint Petersburg on Jan. 18-19. Klintsy lies around 80 kilometers from the border with Ukraine's Chernihiv Oblast, while Saint Petersburg is over 1,000 kilometers away.

"Russian air defense is thinning out. They filled the front line and Crimea with it (air defense). But you see that the Russian territory is not so filled with air defense equipment," Ihnat told Focus's journalist.

"Moscow, Saint Petersburg, (Russian dictator Vladimir) Putin's bunkers will be more or less protected, but Ukrainian-made drones reach Moscow, St. Petersburg, and oil depots in other cities. This is a very good sign."

Reports of drone attacks against military targets on Russian soil have increased in recent months. Kyiv usually doesn't officially comment on such strikes.

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Ukraine will never get all of its land back but honestly a lot of it is just rubble anyway. There’s a reason Ukraine is going after Crimea. That’s their true target and what they want back the most if you ask me. If I were Ukraine and a proposal was presented that the lines stay where they are but that Ukraine gets to join NATO then they would be foolish not to take it because that would officially put an end to Putin land grabbing again. For that very reason Putin would never agree.

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Agree. If they were to successfully take Crimea it would be a no brainer to accept losing the territory currently held by Russia. Join nato. Build defense industry with direct help. Work with the French to build out a nuclear power network to cut reliance on any Russian energy.

ISW Update

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Key Takeaways:

Russian President Vladimir Putin falsely claimed that Russia supports the “unconditional equality” and “sovereignty” of all states in a January 20 letter to the Non-Aligned Movement Summit, contradicting Russia’s official position on its war in Ukraine and its wider imperial ambitions.

Russian Ambassador to Denmark Vladimir Barbin threatened Denmark, a founding member of NATO, on January 20 in response to a recent US-Danish agreement allowing US forces access to military bases in Denmark.

Russian energy exports to China significantly increased in 2023 amid increasing Russian reliance on oil revenues to manage the fiscal burdens of the war in Ukraine.

European Union (EU) Internal Market Commissioner Thierry Breton stated on January 20 that the EU will have the capacity to produce 1.3 to 1.4 million artillery shells by the end of 2024 and will ensure that it delivers the “majority” of the shells to Ukraine.

Russian forces made confirmed advances along the Kupyansk-Svatove-Kreminna line, near Bakhmut, and in the Donetsk-Zaporizhia Oblast border area amid continued positional engagements along the front.

A Russian Storm-Z instructor claimed on January 16 that Rosgvardia personnel operating in occupied Ukraine have systematic issues with equipment and weapons storage.

Occupation authorities continue preparations for the March 2024 Russian presidential election.

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From the first point

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Putin claimed that Russia rejects “neocolonialist ambitions, double standards, as well as forceful pressure, dictatorship, and blackmail as a means of achieving foreign policy and foreign economic goals.”[1] Russian officials have routinely denied Ukraine’s sovereignty and refused to treat it as an equal. The Kremlin rejects Ukrainian statehood and nationhood by incorporating Ukraine into the ideological and geographic conception of the Russian World (Russkiy Mir), which includes any Russian speakers and ”carriers of Russian history and culture“ as “compatriots“ and includes all of the former territories of Kyivan Rus, the Kingdom of Muscovy, the Russian Empire, the Soviet Union, and the contemporary Russian Federation.”[2] Russia uses the framework of “Russkiy Mir” to justify Russian imperialist expansion and the subjugation of independent, sovereign states and their peoples within a pseudo-cultural and historical context. Russian officials have routinely justified the full-scale invasion of Ukraine by claiming that Russia aims to protect its “compatriots” abroad, again rejecting Ukraine‘s sovereignty.[3] Russia also continues to trivialize the sovereignty of other post-Soviet countries and has been setting information conditions to escalate tensions in the Baltics and Moldova under the guise of protecting its “compatriots” abroad.[4] Russia has been in violation of its own commitments to respect Ukraine’s territorial integrity and “inviolability of borders” and its agreement to center relations with Ukraine on ”non-use of force or threat of force” and “non-interference in internal affairs” undertaken in the 1994 Budapest Memorandum since its initial invasion in 2014.[5] Putin's false claims that Russia respects “equality” and “sovereignty” are likely intended to cater to states that the Kremlin desires to pull into its wider sphere of influence, much as it initially intended to do with Ukraine before the initial 2014 invasion.

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But for some reason instead of driving the price of oil down, we’re trying to “end” fossil fuels.

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Please resist getting sucked into this propaganda messaging. The present US administration is not restricting oil and gas production.

The OPEC nations have been reducing production to keep prices from falling too much as U.S. domestic production continues to rise. The U.S. administration is not keeping oil prices artificially high or restricting supply.

The Biden administration is anti oil and gas just as Obama was anti coal.

We are selling oil like crazy as the price is right. There would be more oil at lower prices if the Biden administration just got out of the way.

And yes it would hurt Russia in the pocket book.

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Their policies are making it very clear to oil companies that the days of oil are numbered. This is depressing investment in oil development and causing the price of oil to remain high.

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Yet we break the record monthly on production. US Gulf production is higher than ever. Higgins is playing to an ignorant audience. Economy of scale and much higher efficiency in drilling means 1/5 the amount of rigs to drill the same amount of wells 2 decades ago.

The biggest issue in offshore drilling is Florida has blocked drilling for 1/3 of the Gulf of Mexico, and we already know that oil bearing formations are there.