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re: Latest Updates: Russia-Ukraine Conflict
Posted on 1/22/24 at 9:23 am to Coeur du Tigre
Posted on 1/22/24 at 9:23 am to Coeur du Tigre
A-50 and IL-22 BOTH destroyed with all on board the A-50 dead and the pilot of the IL-22 dead along with the co-pilot seriously wounded. FIFY. frick the Russians but as a pilot myself props to that co-pilot of the IL-22 for being able to put that bird down on the airfield in that condition with the command pilot being dead next to him and himself wounded as well. The flight controls of that aircraft were shot to shite and looked like Swiss cheese. That plane had more holes in it than a screen door. It’s a wonder that tail section didn’t just sheer off but since it was a prop plane instead of a jet it’s saving grace was that it didn’t need to fly as fast to stay in the air without stalling. That being said i seriously doubt he had the full use of flaps and ailerons on the wings either since it’s obvious the entire plane got peppered with Patriot shrapnel. I’d love to hear the recording of that mayday radio call from the IL-22.
0
Posted on 1/22/24 at 9:37 am to Coeur du Tigre
quote:
Novatek [GTL] plant
Russia has ZERO GTL plants. It's what is called a condensate splitter to remove light ends (gases) such as ethane, propane and butane for very light crude oil, aka condensate. GTL is a completely different process. Satellite view shows no hydrogen reformers, the start of the GTL process, on location.
Posted on 1/22/24 at 9:56 am to Coeur du Tigre
quote:
Lukoil oil refinery in Nizhniy Novgorod had to stop a large part of its equipment for making petrol - the equipment broke down, and there is no replacement due to sanctions.
Russia is famous for not maintaining anything properly. With exports wayyyyy down of refined products, there is a lot of idle capacity in Russia. 70% throughput is considered bankruptcy time elsewhere. I seriously doubt that all refineries in Russia several are already shutdown completely. For maintenance work in refining and chemical, skilled labor usually is contracted from places like Czechia, Slovakia, etc... Russians have a hard enough time bolting two flanges together properly.
Posted on 1/22/24 at 1:27 pm to LSUPilot07
Posted on 1/22/24 at 1:41 pm to pirate75
Yeah i saw that. Commander was acting as gunner also but he rightfully praised his driver for them surviving. The gunner was lighting the tank up as much as he could smartly going after the tank’s optics to blind it but the driver, even new on the job, had the wherewithal to keep moving forward and reverse while also popping smoke to shield them. Also damn good shooting by the commander to knock the tank’s optics out making it a really big paperweight.
Posted on 1/22/24 at 2:52 pm to LSUPilot07
Having armor piercing shaped charges flown by $1,000 drones killing multimillion dollar tanks has changed the equation on tank warfare. The Ukrainians hit Russian tanks from behind right at the turret base with RPG heads. Beats our $60 to 80k Javelins and $20k Switchblades.
Of course the Russians are doing it to.
I'm sure there is a furious anti-drone tech race going on now.
Of course the Russians are doing it to.
I'm sure there is a furious anti-drone tech race going on now.
This post was edited on 1/22/24 at 2:53 pm
Posted on 1/22/24 at 7:48 pm to Auburn1968
I wouldn’t quite go so far to compare FPV drones to being better than a Javelin but they are no doubt very very effective and you get a great bang for your buck. FPVs can be stopped by a lot of these homemade cope cages by making them detonate before hitting the actual tank so the tank’s armor can then resist the secondary blast, even the shittiest designed ones can be enough to save a tank. Also it can take multiple FPVs to destroy something armored like a tank even without any cope cages if it doesn’t hit it in the right spot. A Javelin will send a Russian tank turret flying cope cage or not when it hits. All those cages do against a Javelin is to roast dead Russians on like a bbq grill but you’d expect better performance for the price of a Javelin vs a FPV drone. It’s kind of like comparing apples and oranges, they are two completely different systems that both have their pros and cons.
On another note, the first delivery of the new Enduring Shield air defense system has taken place. It is meant to be a kind of do it all mobile ground based system that fills the role between short range air defense systems and longer range systems like the Patriot. They can hit UAVs, fixed wing aircraft and cruise missiles and it’s designed to be easily adapted to the changing needs of the military by being able to use different missiles in its launcher pods.
LINK
On another note, the first delivery of the new Enduring Shield air defense system has taken place. It is meant to be a kind of do it all mobile ground based system that fills the role between short range air defense systems and longer range systems like the Patriot. They can hit UAVs, fixed wing aircraft and cruise missiles and it’s designed to be easily adapted to the changing needs of the military by being able to use different missiles in its launcher pods.
LINK
This post was edited on 1/22/24 at 8:03 pm
Posted on 1/22/24 at 8:18 pm to LSUPilot07
ISW Update
quote:
Key Takeaways:
Russia continues to weaponize its position on the United Nations Security Council (UNSC) to propagate several long-standing Russian information operations.
Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk visited Kyiv on January 22 and announced a new Polish defense package for Ukraine.
Footage purportedly showing an altercation between a Russian soldier and Chechen “Akhmat-Vostok” forces in occupied Melitopol, Zaporizhia Oblast, reignited criticism of Chechen forces for their lack of contributions to Russian military operations in Ukraine.
An investigation by a Russian opposition outlet suggests that Russian elites may have accepted and internalized the domestic consequences of Russia’s war in Ukraine.
Russian officials and information space actors are attempting to further rhetorically justify Russia’s invasion of Ukraine by misrepresenting a decree that Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky signed on January 22 concerning discrimination against ethnic Ukrainians in Russia. Zelensky’s decree does not establish any territorial demands upon Russia, as select Russian ultranationalists falsely claimed.
Russian forces made confirmed advances south of Avdiivka and west of Donetsk City amid continued positional engagements along the entire frontline.
Kyrgyzstan issued a statement against Russia’s continued practice of targeting naturalized migrants as part of ongoing crypto-mobilization efforts.
Russian federal subjects continue to establish ties with areas of occupied Ukraine.
Posted on 1/22/24 at 11:31 pm to StormyMcMan
I wasn't even aware of this as there's not much going on and I haven't been paying attention, but there were rumors that Gerisamov was killed ~2 weeks ago, and Gerisamov has not made a public appearance since.
Wasn't this guy out in front of cameras pretty consistently before his "death" occurred?
Is it possible Ukraine actually got him?
Wasn't this guy out in front of cameras pretty consistently before his "death" occurred?
Is it possible Ukraine actually got him?
Posted on 1/22/24 at 11:40 pm to StormyMcMan
Here is a description of the Condensate Splitter that was hit.
LINK
Basic description, it operates like crude units in a simple refinery, aka topping unit. The naphtha is not a finished product but needs to be reformed increase the octane value as a motor fuel. The diesel and kerosene may or may not be desulfurized in downstream units. It's about 150,000 BPD
quote:
In 2022, the Complex processed 6,943 thousand tonnes of stable gas condensate and produced 6,825 thousand tonnes of commercial products, including 4,208 thousand tonnes of light and heavy naphtha, 1,052 thousand tonnes of kerosene, 1,487 thousand tonnes of diesel fraction and marine fuel component (fuel oil), and 78 thousand tonnes of LPG.
LINK
Basic description, it operates like crude units in a simple refinery, aka topping unit. The naphtha is not a finished product but needs to be reformed increase the octane value as a motor fuel. The diesel and kerosene may or may not be desulfurized in downstream units. It's about 150,000 BPD
Posted on 1/23/24 at 1:38 am to CitizenK
quote:
The diesel and kerosene may or may not be desulfurized in downstream units.
Does Russian condensate contain that much sulfur?
Posted on 1/23/24 at 5:26 am to Coeur du Tigre
from the Kyiv Post
General Staff: Ukraine downs 21 of 41 Russian missiles
by Kateryna Hodunova January 23, 2024 11:47 AM
The Russian Armed Forces launched 41 missiles against Ukraine overnight on Jan. 23, of which 21 were shot down by Ukraine's air defense, the General Staff of Ukraine's Armed Forces reported.
Russia reportedly attacked Ukrainian cities using cruise, ballistic, aerial, and anti-aircraft-guided missiles. At least six people were killed, and over 50 were injured in strikes on the Kyiv, Kharkiv, and Dnipropetrovsk oblasts, according to officials.
Ukrainian Armed Forces reportedly shot down all 15 Kh-101/555/55 Russian cruise missiles, five ballistic Iskander missiles, and one aerial guided missile, Kh-59.
Moscow's troops launched four S-300/400 missiles from Belgorod Oblast against Kharkiv Oblast, the General Staff said.
Some 12 Iskander-M ballistic missiles were also launched from the Belgorod and Voronezh oblasts.
Strategic Tu-95 and Tu-22 bombers reportedly fired 15 Kh-101/555/55 cruise missiles and eight Kh-22 missiles. Finally, the Ukrainian military recorded two Kh-59 guided aerial missiles launched from two Su-34 aircraft.
General Staff: Ukraine downs 21 of 41 Russian missiles
by Kateryna Hodunova January 23, 2024 11:47 AM
The Russian Armed Forces launched 41 missiles against Ukraine overnight on Jan. 23, of which 21 were shot down by Ukraine's air defense, the General Staff of Ukraine's Armed Forces reported.
Russia reportedly attacked Ukrainian cities using cruise, ballistic, aerial, and anti-aircraft-guided missiles. At least six people were killed, and over 50 were injured in strikes on the Kyiv, Kharkiv, and Dnipropetrovsk oblasts, according to officials.
Ukrainian Armed Forces reportedly shot down all 15 Kh-101/555/55 Russian cruise missiles, five ballistic Iskander missiles, and one aerial guided missile, Kh-59.
Moscow's troops launched four S-300/400 missiles from Belgorod Oblast against Kharkiv Oblast, the General Staff said.
Some 12 Iskander-M ballistic missiles were also launched from the Belgorod and Voronezh oblasts.
Strategic Tu-95 and Tu-22 bombers reportedly fired 15 Kh-101/555/55 cruise missiles and eight Kh-22 missiles. Finally, the Ukrainian military recorded two Kh-59 guided aerial missiles launched from two Su-34 aircraft.
Posted on 1/23/24 at 7:00 am to Coeur du Tigre
quote:
Does Russian condensate contain that much sulfur?
I would be surprised that it is low enough sulfur coming in not to need any. Being sweet just means under 0.5% sulfur.
Light naphtha is desulfurized then isomerized to be used in gasoline, otherwise it's a feedstock for petrochemicals. Heavy naphtha has to be desulfurized first because sulfur kills the reformer catalyst, then reformed into premium gasoline. Diesel and kerosene (aka jet fuel) have to be desulfurized. The small amount of fuel oil is low enough in sulfur to be used to make heavy fuel oil for ships.
This post was edited on 1/23/24 at 7:39 am
Posted on 1/23/24 at 7:04 am to cypher
NYT: Russia using relatively accurate, recently designed North Korean missiles against Ukraine
by Elsa Court and The Kyiv Independent news desk January 23, 2024 1:55 PM
Russia used more North Korean missiles to attack Ukraine in the past few days, and U.S. officials believe they are "proving as accurate as Russia's home-built" weapons, the New York Times reported in its Jan. 23 morning briefing.
Moscow and Pyongyang have significantly increased their military ties since the beginning of the full-scale invasion of Ukraine in February 2022. According to Ukrainian military intelligence chief Kyrylo Budanov, North Korea is now Russia's largest arms supplier.
"Though many of the North Korean artillery rounds are proving to be duds," having been manufactured decades ago, "they're giving the Russians something to fire while Ukraine's military rations its own dwindling supply of munitions," the New York Times said.
The effectiveness of North Korean missiles is worrying Western officials, however, as research suggests they have been designed quite recently and are proving to be relatively accurate, the newspaper said.
As reported both by Kyiv and Washington, Russia also used North Korean ballistic missiles against Ukraine for the first time in strikes against Kharkiv on Jan. 2.
South Korean officials and analysts are concerned that Ukraine is becoming a testing ground for North Korean missiles, allowing Pyongyang to "see how its new missile arsenal, designed for a conflict with South Korea and the U.S., fares against Western-designed air defenses."
The Kyiv Independent
by Elsa Court and The Kyiv Independent news desk January 23, 2024 1:55 PM
Russia used more North Korean missiles to attack Ukraine in the past few days, and U.S. officials believe they are "proving as accurate as Russia's home-built" weapons, the New York Times reported in its Jan. 23 morning briefing.
Moscow and Pyongyang have significantly increased their military ties since the beginning of the full-scale invasion of Ukraine in February 2022. According to Ukrainian military intelligence chief Kyrylo Budanov, North Korea is now Russia's largest arms supplier.
"Though many of the North Korean artillery rounds are proving to be duds," having been manufactured decades ago, "they're giving the Russians something to fire while Ukraine's military rations its own dwindling supply of munitions," the New York Times said.
The effectiveness of North Korean missiles is worrying Western officials, however, as research suggests they have been designed quite recently and are proving to be relatively accurate, the newspaper said.
As reported both by Kyiv and Washington, Russia also used North Korean ballistic missiles against Ukraine for the first time in strikes against Kharkiv on Jan. 2.
South Korean officials and analysts are concerned that Ukraine is becoming a testing ground for North Korean missiles, allowing Pyongyang to "see how its new missile arsenal, designed for a conflict with South Korea and the U.S., fares against Western-designed air defenses."
The Kyiv Independent
Posted on 1/23/24 at 9:07 am to cypher
quote:
On Sunday Russia reported that its Ust-Luga fuel processing and distribution facility had been damaged by a suspected Ukrainian drone attack. Reports indicate that it will be a few weeks before the facility can restart. Separately, Libya's Sharara oilfield has restarted production as of Sunday, following the end of a local protest that had halted output since early January. On the weather front, cuts continue to plague oil production out of the Bakken in North Dakota; as much as 20% of the region’s production remains offline.
LINK
Posted on 1/23/24 at 2:37 pm to CitizenK
Turkey parliament has approved NATO membership for Sweden.
Posted on 1/23/24 at 5:09 pm to cypher
The B-21 Raider is finally officially in low rate production. Right now we have 6 in different stages of completion with the initial test aircraft being the first of those completed. Another has yet to be confirmed but is already done as well. I would think with the 6 airframes already in some form of existence that this first contract is for maybe just 4-6 aircraft past the first 6 due over the next 3-4 years so by the end of the decade you can hopefully field your first B-21 squadron and begin to rotate out the B-52 and B-1 over the next 10-20 years.
This post was edited on 1/24/24 at 12:32 pm
Posted on 1/23/24 at 5:28 pm to cypher
This is a link to a review of drone and anti-drone technology. Good read for the curious.
https://www.robinradar.com/press/blog/10-counter-drone-technologies-to-detect-and-stop-drones-today
Then there is DARPA.
https://www.darpa.mil/news-events/2023-09-12
https://www.robinradar.com/press/blog/10-counter-drone-technologies-to-detect-and-stop-drones-today
Then there is DARPA.
https://www.darpa.mil/news-events/2023-09-12
This post was edited on 1/23/24 at 5:38 pm
Posted on 1/24/24 at 4:51 am to Auburn1968
Russian IL-76 transport plane shot down by Ukraine near Belgorod. Russia says that the plane was carrying 63 Ukrainian POWs, but Ukraine says that no POWs were on the plane, and that it was carrying S-300 missiles.
Video of crash
Video of crash
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