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Message
re: Latest Updates: Russia-Ukraine Conflict
Posted on 1/24/24 at 6:34 am to Auburn1968
Posted on 1/24/24 at 6:34 am to Auburn1968
ISW Jan 23 Update
quote:
Key Takeaways:
Western states reiterated their support for Ukraine and their commitment to the development of Ukraine’s defense industrial base (DIB) at the 18th Ukraine Defense Contact Group at Ramstein Air Base in Germany on January 23.
NATO concluded contracts on January 23 for the purchase over 200,000 artillery shells, likely either to allow NATO to send additional aid to Ukraine or to replenish NATO stockpiles.
Russian milbloggers claimed that Russian forces are struggling to compensate for Ukrainian drone and rear-area strikes at the level necessary to break out of positional warfare.
Russian forces conducted a series of missile strikes against Ukraine on the night of January 22-23 with a new strike package likely meant to penetrate Ukrainian air defenses.
Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov met with Iranian Foreign Minister Hossein Amir Abdollahian and Palestinian National Authority Foreign Minister Riyad al Maliki as part of efforts to deepen Russian relations with Middle Eastern actors.
The Kremlin’s domestic policy focus on the “Year of the Family” in 2024 is likely in part meant to address Russia’s ongoing demographic crisis.
The Russian Baltic Fleet is conducting a coastal missile exercise likely to posture against ongoing NATO Steadfast Defender 2024 exercises.
The Kremlin may intend to use the 2024 Russian presidential election as a referendum on Russia’s war in Ukraine.
The Russian legal system is expanding the prosecution of extortion cases to broadly suppress sources of dissent.
Russian forces recently made confirmed advances near Kreminna, Avdiivka, and Donetsk City amid continued positional engagements along the entire line of contact on January 23.
Donetsk People’s Republic (DNR) government chairperson Yevgeny Solntsev announced on January 23 that a branch of the Russian Nakhimov Naval School in occupied Mariupol will start instructing its first cadets on September 1, 2024.
Russian occupation authorities are likely deliberately misrepresenting population statistics in occupied areas to encourage people to relocated to occupied settlements.
1
Posted on 1/24/24 at 7:19 am to StormyMcMan
British Defence Intelligence
INTELLIGENCE UPDATE
UPDATE ON UKRAINE 24 January 2024
On 22 January 2024, the Russian state Duma, or lower house, discussed a bill to seize the financial assets, including property, of Russians who openly criticise the Russian military and the 'special military operation'. A number of prominent Russian writers and a musician have been sentenced in recent months for their criticism of the war.
In July 2022, Russian President Putin approved amendments to the 2012 'Foreign Agents Law', which came into force on 01 December 2022. This legislation has been widely used to repress opponents of the regime. According to OVID-Info, a Russian human rights monitoring agency, in 2023, 217 individuals and organisations were designated 'Foreign Agents'. As of 03 November 2023, according to the Russian Ministry of Justice, the total list of 'Foreign Agents' was 707. 'Foreign Agents' include independent Russian news outlets and human rights organisations, many of which have been forced to operate outside of Russia.
This legislation highly likely seeks to deter and silence anti-war opposition. This recent bill in conjunction with the Foreign Agents measures, likely intends to restrict criticism of the war altogether.
INTELLIGENCE UPDATE
UPDATE ON UKRAINE 24 January 2024
On 22 January 2024, the Russian state Duma, or lower house, discussed a bill to seize the financial assets, including property, of Russians who openly criticise the Russian military and the 'special military operation'. A number of prominent Russian writers and a musician have been sentenced in recent months for their criticism of the war.
In July 2022, Russian President Putin approved amendments to the 2012 'Foreign Agents Law', which came into force on 01 December 2022. This legislation has been widely used to repress opponents of the regime. According to OVID-Info, a Russian human rights monitoring agency, in 2023, 217 individuals and organisations were designated 'Foreign Agents'. As of 03 November 2023, according to the Russian Ministry of Justice, the total list of 'Foreign Agents' was 707. 'Foreign Agents' include independent Russian news outlets and human rights organisations, many of which have been forced to operate outside of Russia.
This legislation highly likely seeks to deter and silence anti-war opposition. This recent bill in conjunction with the Foreign Agents measures, likely intends to restrict criticism of the war altogether.
Posted on 1/24/24 at 7:41 am to cypher
quote:
On 22 January 2024, the Russian state Duma, or lower house, discussed a bill to seize the financial assets, including property, of Russians who openly criticise the Russian military and the 'special military operation'. A number of prominent Russian writers and a musician have been sentenced in recent months for their criticism of the war.
Ahh the bastion of democracy and anti-globalist sticking it to those libtards
-poli board probably
/sarcasm
Posted on 1/24/24 at 9:57 am to cypher
"The Russian Tank Operators Are AMATEURS" Former Brit Tank Commander Analyses 'Inept' Russian Army Fails
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UDhSMrlmIiQ
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UDhSMrlmIiQ
Posted on 1/24/24 at 10:46 am to Auburn1968
quote:
"The Russian Tank Operators Are AMATEURS" Former Brit Tank Commander Analyses 'Inept' Russian Army Fails
Unsurprising.
It's not that Ukraine is winning, it's that Russia is losing, ultimately.
Posted on 1/24/24 at 2:22 pm to Auburn1968
"The Russian Tank Operators Are AMATEURS"
This goes back to the beginnings of the conflict. When Ukraine didn't quickly collapse Russia became desperate for experienced people to enter the fight. Russia threw in a lot of their instructors and it was commented on this board that they were sacrificing future fighting ability. It's a Catch-22. It's hard to get experience when you start off not very competent and you die quickly. So then more inexperienced tankers have to be thrown into the fight.
This goes back to the beginnings of the conflict. When Ukraine didn't quickly collapse Russia became desperate for experienced people to enter the fight. Russia threw in a lot of their instructors and it was commented on this board that they were sacrificing future fighting ability. It's a Catch-22. It's hard to get experience when you start off not very competent and you die quickly. So then more inexperienced tankers have to be thrown into the fight.
Posted on 1/24/24 at 3:09 pm to Tigris
quote:
"The Russian Tank Operators Are AMATEURS"
This goes back to the beginnings of the conflict. When Ukraine didn't quickly collapse Russia became desperate for experienced people to enter the fight. Russia threw in a lot of their instructors and it was commented on this board that they were sacrificing future fighting ability. It's a Catch-22. It's hard to get experience when you start off not very competent and you die quickly. So then more inexperienced tankers have to be thrown into the fight.
Yet they were doing the same as the barely trained of today.
Posted on 1/24/24 at 3:20 pm to GOP_Tiger
quote:
Russia says that the plane was carrying 63 Ukrainian POWs
How convenient
Posted on 1/24/24 at 3:22 pm to Tigris
quote:
Russia threw in a lot of their instructors and it was commented on this board that they were sacrificing future fighting ability.
I would imagine there aren’t many men who were fighting in the first few months of the war that are still alive and on the battlefield today. They’re all either dead or seriously wounded. It seems this war is being fought with rookies on both sides.
Posted on 1/24/24 at 4:17 pm to TigersSEC2010
multiple reports of a oil refinery fire...
A close footage of an oil refinery in Russia's Tuapse (around 440kms away from Ukraine). Locals reportedly heard explosions (presumably drone attack) before the fire.
Video
WarTranslated (Dmitri)
@wartranslated
Major incident in Russian town of Tuapse on the eastern shore of the Black Sea. It is believed that the Rosneft plant, one of the oldest in Russia which processes oil from several oil fields, caught fire after an unidentified flying object struck one of the oil tanks.
LINK
A close footage of an oil refinery in Russia's Tuapse (around 440kms away from Ukraine). Locals reportedly heard explosions (presumably drone attack) before the fire.
Video
WarTranslated (Dmitri)
@wartranslated
Major incident in Russian town of Tuapse on the eastern shore of the Black Sea. It is believed that the Rosneft plant, one of the oldest in Russia which processes oil from several oil fields, caught fire after an unidentified flying object struck one of the oil tanks.
LINK
This post was edited on 1/24/24 at 5:26 pm
Posted on 1/24/24 at 6:05 pm to cypher
Sort of modernized a decade ago. Not that big of a refinery at 85,000 BPD. Gasoline meets specs for most nations but likely nothing else. The importance is bunker fuel for it's Black Sea fleet
Posted on 1/24/24 at 6:12 pm to CitizenK
“One man has the gun, the other the ammo” doesn’t take a ton of training.
Posted on 1/24/24 at 9:52 pm to Hateradedrink
ISW Update
quote:
Key Takeaways:
A Russian Il-76 military transport aircraft crashed in Belgorod Oblast on January 24.
Russian information space actors are seizing on the Il-76 crash to sow domestic discontent in Ukraine and undermine Western will to continue giving military support to Ukraine.
Russian law enforcement authorities are codifying xenophobic profiling methods suggesting that migrants are predisposed to criminal activity against the backdrop of continued conflicts between Russian citizens and naturalized migrants.
The Ukrainian Main Military Intelligence Directorate (GUR) reported that Ukrainian hackers recently conducted cyberattacks on Russian intelligence and communications infrastructure.
NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg stated during the 18th Ukraine Defense Contact Group at Ramstein Air Base in Germany that recent Russian missile strikes against Ukraine underscore the need to strengthen Ukraine’s air defenses.
Russian and Chadian officials met in Moscow on January 24, suggesting that Chad may be the Kremlin’s next target among former French colonies on the African continent.
The Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD) controlled Africa Corps published photos on January 24 claiming to show Africa Corps personnel arriving in Burkina Faso.
NATO announced on January 24 that the Steadfast Defender 2024 exercises have started and will run until May 31, 2024.
Positional engagements continued throughout the theater.
Chechen Republic Head Ramzan Kadyrov continues efforts to bolster the reputation of Chechen forces.
Russian occupation authorities are setting conditions to coerce voter turnout in the upcoming March 2024 presidential elections.
Posted on 1/25/24 at 7:15 am to StormyMcMan
British Defence Intelligence
INTELLIGENCE UPDATE
UPDATE ON UKRAINE 25 January 2024
In recent months, there have been heating breakdowns in 16 locations across Russia. These breakdowns amidst sub-freezing temperatures are an expansion of an existing problem that has plagued Russian cities and towns for decades, but has likely become more acute due to Russian wartime policies.
Russia has routinely prioritised military spending over re-investment in general public infrastructure, especially since their invasion of Ukraine in 2022. Many regional governments have been asked to take on the burden of operating with less federal revenue and have been asked to fund local volunteer forces, which has likely stretched their budgets and necessitated some cuts to maintenance spending. Additionally, mobilisation has likely led to a workforce shortage across all industries including qualified heating engineers and plumbers.
Putin has asked the Minister of Emergency Situations, Aleksandr Kurenkov, to ensure the supply of heating and electricity to residents. Appearing to tackle this issue is likely a key concern for Putin ahead of the forthcoming Russian presidential elections.
INTELLIGENCE UPDATE
UPDATE ON UKRAINE 25 January 2024
In recent months, there have been heating breakdowns in 16 locations across Russia. These breakdowns amidst sub-freezing temperatures are an expansion of an existing problem that has plagued Russian cities and towns for decades, but has likely become more acute due to Russian wartime policies.
Russia has routinely prioritised military spending over re-investment in general public infrastructure, especially since their invasion of Ukraine in 2022. Many regional governments have been asked to take on the burden of operating with less federal revenue and have been asked to fund local volunteer forces, which has likely stretched their budgets and necessitated some cuts to maintenance spending. Additionally, mobilisation has likely led to a workforce shortage across all industries including qualified heating engineers and plumbers.
Putin has asked the Minister of Emergency Situations, Aleksandr Kurenkov, to ensure the supply of heating and electricity to residents. Appearing to tackle this issue is likely a key concern for Putin ahead of the forthcoming Russian presidential elections.
Posted on 1/25/24 at 7:23 am to cypher
US Senate committee backs bill to seize Russian assets to help Ukraine
by Vladyslav Kudryk and The Kyiv Independent news desk January 25, 2024 1:57 PM
The U.S. Senate Foreign Relations Committee almost unanimously approved a bill on Jan. 24 that would pave the way for Washington to confiscate Russian assets and hand them over to Ukraine for reconstruction of the country, Reuters reported.
The EU, U.S., Canada, and Japan froze some $300 billion of Russian central bank assets after Russia invaded Ukraine in 2022. Most of this money is kept in the Belgium-based Euroclear central securities depositary, while only around $5 billion is held in U.S. institutions.
The bill "Rebuilding Economic Prosperity and Opportunity (REPO) for Ukrainians Act" was supported 20 to one.
If it were to pass the Senate and House of Representatives and be signed into law by President Joe Biden, the bill would enable Washington's first-ever seizure of central bank assets from a country with which it is not at war.
The White House reportedly backs confiscating Russian assets but seeks to align its position with other Group of Seven (G7) allies, namely the EU, where around two-thirds of Russian frozen assets are held.
by Vladyslav Kudryk and The Kyiv Independent news desk January 25, 2024 1:57 PM
The U.S. Senate Foreign Relations Committee almost unanimously approved a bill on Jan. 24 that would pave the way for Washington to confiscate Russian assets and hand them over to Ukraine for reconstruction of the country, Reuters reported.
The EU, U.S., Canada, and Japan froze some $300 billion of Russian central bank assets after Russia invaded Ukraine in 2022. Most of this money is kept in the Belgium-based Euroclear central securities depositary, while only around $5 billion is held in U.S. institutions.
The bill "Rebuilding Economic Prosperity and Opportunity (REPO) for Ukrainians Act" was supported 20 to one.
If it were to pass the Senate and House of Representatives and be signed into law by President Joe Biden, the bill would enable Washington's first-ever seizure of central bank assets from a country with which it is not at war.
The White House reportedly backs confiscating Russian assets but seeks to align its position with other Group of Seven (G7) allies, namely the EU, where around two-thirds of Russian frozen assets are held.
Posted on 1/25/24 at 7:27 am to cypher
quote:
Minister of Emergency Situations
Is this like our FEMA? lol
Posted on 1/25/24 at 9:01 am to cypher
I'm in favor of this approach, especially if they can avoid having a similar "asset seizure" for American assets.
It funds Ukraine while also punishing Russia. Win/win, so long as you avoid getting American assets seized in response.
It funds Ukraine while also punishing Russia. Win/win, so long as you avoid getting American assets seized in response.
Posted on 1/25/24 at 9:06 am to cypher
This post was edited on 4/5/24 at 3:10 pm
Posted on 1/25/24 at 11:47 am to Grigio
quote:
ok after what i have seen in the last few days i agree with
@JeffFisch
.
the UKRAF looks like it is sneaking german style patriot launchers to the front line and doing raids with them. sneak in, quick shoot, haul arse out of the area.
this is the most audacious use of a high alt long range system i have ever seen....
what they have done is take a strategic air defense system you normally need about 2-3sq KM to set up and run... and turned it into a long range stinger system. amazing. this goes against every book ever written about ADA employment... and its working. you can not do this with the american type system as easily.
doing so now pushes the front line back for russia 130 to 160 KM...
LINK
I have been wondering how the Ukrainians were going to counter the Russians using AWACs in combination with SAMs to go after Ukrainian fighter planes especially the F16s when they arrive. I guess they decided that if they shoot down or force the Russian AWACs to stay back will get the job done. Damn those crazy Ukies are some ingenius bass turds.
Posted on 1/25/24 at 12:04 pm to WeeWee
Very very risky though, especially with your best air defense asset of which you only have 3 batteries of. Still, ballsy. Real ballsy. Gotta give those bastards credit though. You can drop them off in the desert naked with only a toothbrush and they will show up at your poolside with an umbrella drink and a million dollar smile.
This post was edited on 1/25/24 at 12:51 pm
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