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re: Latest Updates: Russia-Ukraine Conflict
Posted on 12/28/23 at 10:44 am to Tiger985
Posted on 12/28/23 at 10:44 am to Tiger985
quote:
Ukraine will be able to hit targets far behind the Russian lines for as long as they have missiles.
What they will not do, is drive the Russians out of Ukraine. The primary reason is they lack the manpower. Thinking people have recognized this for quite some time.
This whole argument is a matter of perspective.
You can say: Ukraine can't defeat Russia on the battlefield and drive them back to Russia.
But look at it inversely:
Russia can't defeat Ukraine and capture their major cities and overthrow their government.
Neither can Russia sustain an offensive military posture in a foreign country indefinitely. Especially when it's supply lines are subject to long range missile strikes.
Russia is a a very very difficult position. It's bleeding its own resources. It's cut off from the world economy. It's led by a personality cult strong man dictator. And it's not making material gain on the battlefield.
Something has to give. It has to conquer Ukraine, or it has to go home. It can't stay like this forever.
2
Posted on 12/28/23 at 12:56 pm to No Colors
Russia wants a ceasefire. They would be content to hold wherever they have right now. And then keep incrementally trying to shave off 20% more territory every decade or so.
Posted on 12/28/23 at 1:16 pm to No Colors
(no message)
This post was edited on 12/28/23 at 1:17 pm
Posted on 12/28/23 at 2:07 pm to AGGIES
quote:
Russia wants a ceasefire.
Link?
Posted on 12/28/23 at 2:14 pm to GOP_Tiger
Nothing new, I was referring to the repeated calls for peace negotiations over the past couple of weeks…
Posted on 12/28/23 at 2:27 pm to AGGIES
The corporate media winds are shifting.
LINK
LINK
quote:
The Biden Administration Is Quietly Shifting Its Strategy in Ukraine
For two years, Biden and Zelenskyy have been focused on driving Russia from Ukraine. Now Washington is discussing a move to a more defensive posture.
LINK
LINK
This post was edited on 12/28/23 at 2:28 pm
Posted on 12/28/23 at 2:29 pm to AGGIES
Are you people insane. Ukraine's economy is a disaster, the only thing holding it up is the US pumping billions of your dollars into it paying civil servants, pensions and other nonsense we have absolutely no business paying.
They have no people left to fight. They will soon be out of all US military support.
Russia is firmly planted where they are.
Its over, biden is already positioning to do the Afghan shuffle, Europe is already blaming the US, and zelensky is lecturing us for not throwing billions more into his personal bank account.
I say again, when the NYTimes starts writing OPs on why it makes sense for ukraine to give up....its time to give up.
They have no people left to fight. They will soon be out of all US military support.
Russia is firmly planted where they are.
Its over, biden is already positioning to do the Afghan shuffle, Europe is already blaming the US, and zelensky is lecturing us for not throwing billions more into his personal bank account.
I say again, when the NYTimes starts writing OPs on why it makes sense for ukraine to give up....its time to give up.
Posted on 12/28/23 at 3:11 pm to trinidadtiger
quote:
They have no people left to fight. They will soon be out of all US military support.
So the war is over and Russia can walk in and take Kiev, Kharkiv, Kherson City and Odessa tomorrow.
quote:
I say again, when the NYTimes starts writing OPs on why it makes sense for ukraine to give up....its time to give up.
Since when does the hard right start taking advice from the NYT?
Posted on 12/28/23 at 3:14 pm to trinidadtiger
quote:
the only thing holding it up is the US pumping billions of your dollars into it paying civil servants, pensions and other nonsense we have absolutely no business paying.
quote:
zelensky is lecturing us for not throwing billions more into his personal bank account
So Zelensky is paying everyone out of his personal account? That's rather nice of him
Posted on 12/28/23 at 5:34 pm to Jim Rockford
quote:
The location of Fedosia raises some questions in my mind. Did they fly across Crimea or fire the missiles across Crimea? If so, where was the Russian air defense?
There is a S400 battery overlooking the port. It’s maybe 5-10 km from the sunken ship.
Posted on 12/28/23 at 5:38 pm to trinidadtiger
quote:
Seizing those assets, many of which are not even part of the Russian govt, and then selling them, that opens the door for any US assets abroad, you realize that?????
I am not an international finance expert but the countries that could do that to the USA are our allies and dependent on our military to defend them so they wouldn’t dare do it. Also the USA isn’t planning on invading Canada or Mexico and committing war crimes and mass human rights violations. The oligarchs whose assets were frozen are the ones who keep the Putin government in power. They are just as responsible for this war and Russia’s war crimes as Lavrov and Sergei Shoigu are.
quote:
And here is a novel idea, if they take 300 billion in assets how about they take 150 billion and pay us back our fricking money.
Did you not see my post a little further down that literally says that exact same thing?
This post was edited on 12/28/23 at 5:45 pm
Posted on 12/28/23 at 5:53 pm to trinidadtiger
quote:
They NYT had an opinion piece this week about Ukraine looking for a peace deal and letting Russia keep what they have. Fellas, when the Times (insert CIA/FBI) start posting articles like that, its over, time to pack the bags and call it a day. They are looking for a way for biden to back out without losing face with a pending election. They will be hailing his peace deal very soon.
Where will they be hailing this peace deal? In territories that you think used to be in the Ukraine but are now controlled by Russia like Kyiv, Kharkiv, and Odessa?
Posted on 12/28/23 at 5:59 pm to doubleb
quote:
its time to give up.
Folks, it's not accident that:
1) Ukraine blew up the flagship of the Black Sea Fleet, and
2) There's an immediate push from Putinists to get Ukraine to surrender.
The strategic situation for Russia in Crimea is getting dire, with word that all of Ukraine's Storm Shadow and SCALP missiles are from regular UK and French stock -- they are not some limited-range export version. The coming arrival of F-16s and related armaments will facilitate the Ukrainian ability to isolate Crimea.
The G7 is preparing to seize $300 billion in Russian assets, and the plan to do this is going to be in place by the 2nd anniversary of the invasion in February.
The increasing crisis at the border (and there's a new caravan making its way through Mexico, so it's not going to get better) dramatically increases the odds that a deal gets done to fund US aid to Ukraine. (The fact that Israel is having success in its fight also helps.)
Turkey is about to approve Sweden's NATO bid, making the alliance even stronger.
There are increasing signs of the Russian public's dissatisfaction with the war.
When you put all those factors together, you can see why the pro-Putin crowd is copying the Wicked Witch of the West; it's because Russia is facing strategic defeat.
Posted on 12/28/23 at 6:19 pm to GOP_Tiger
quote:
When you put all those factors together, you can see why the pro-Putin crowd is copying the Wicked Witch of the West; it's because Russia is facing strategic defeat.
Russia is at serious risk of having its army collapse because they have been under serious stress with little relief for two years now for a thread bare set of excuses for Putin's ambition. They are in cold, wet and miserable trenches without real reason.
Ukraine is in those same cold, wet and miserable trenches, but they are fighting for the home and hearth and have deep animosity for Russia's past crimes and atrocities against them.
Posted on 12/28/23 at 6:51 pm to Auburn1968
quote:
Russia is at serious risk of having its army collapse because they have been under serious stress with little relief for two years now for a thread bare set of excuses for Putin's ambition.
As long as the vodka keeps flowing the Russians will keep fighting because the alternative is starving to death in prison or a bullet to the head.
Posted on 12/28/23 at 7:48 pm to WeeWee
Iran summons Russia’s envoy again over islands dispute
quote:
Iran has once more summoned the Russian envoy to Tehran after Moscow signed another joint statement with Arab nations calling for negotiations over three disputed islands that the United Arab Emirates claims as its own.
The Russian envoy was summoned to the Iranian Ministry of Foreign Affairs to receive Tehran’s “strong protest” over the statement, the state-run IRNA news website said late on Saturday.
At the Foreign Ministry, the Russian envoy was reportedly told that respect for the territorial integrity of nations is a fundamental tenet in relations between any two countries. IRNA also said the official was told the three disputed islands “forever belong to Iran” which renders any outside claims unacceptable.
Posted on 12/28/23 at 8:18 pm to StormyMcMan
quote:
Iran has once more summoned the Russian envoy to Tehran after Moscow signed another joint statement with Arab nations calling for negotiations over three disputed islands that the United Arab Emirates claims as its own. The Russian envoy was summoned to the Iranian Ministry of Foreign Affairs to receive Tehran’s “strong protest” over the statement, the state-run IRNA news website said late on Saturday.
It sounds like Persia is trying to strong arm some more Su35s out of Russia.
Posted on 12/28/23 at 9:05 pm to WeeWee
ISW Update
quote:
Key Takeaways:
The New York Times (NYT) published an oped by a member of its editorial board calling for Ukraine to engage in negotiations with and cede territory to Russia after reports emerged that Russian President Vladimir Putin is using backchannels and intermediaries to signal his interest in a ceasefire. The oped largely ignores near-constant Kremlin public signaling of Russia’s continued maximalist goals in Ukraine.
Russia has officially deployed a battalion formed of Ukrainian prisoners of war (POWs) to the frontline in Ukraine, further confirming a myriad of apparent Russian violations of the Geneva Convention on POWs.
Recent incidents of apparent Russian violations of the Geneva Convention on POWs likely implicate elements of the now notorious 76th Guards Air Assault (VDV) Division in the abuse of POWs.
The Russian military command will reportedly disband the "Kaskad" operational combat tactical formation of the Donetsk People’s Republic’s (DNR) Internal Affairs Ministry (MVD) by December 31, 2023, likely as part of Russia's ongoing force formalization campaign.
Ukrainian military officials revealed that Russian forces launched about 7,400 missiles and 3,900 Shahed drone strikes against Ukraine since launching the full-scale invasion.
Russian mines continue to threaten civilian vessels in the Black Sea but will likely not deter civilian vessel usage of the Black Sea Humanitarian Corridor.
The US Department of Defense (DoD) announced a $250 million security assistance package for Ukraine on December 27.
Imprisoned Russian ultranationalist and former Russian officer Igor Girkin acknowledged the end of his presidential campaign after failing to register with the Russian Central Elections Committee (CEC) on December 27.
The Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD) rewarded prominent Russian milbloggers for their contribution to the "military-patriotic" and "military-political" sphere, mirroring previous Kremlin efforts to pander to and co-opt to the wider Russian milblogger community.
Ukrainian forces made a confirmed advance near Bakhmut, likely within the past week.
Russian forces made confirmed advances northwest of Avdiivka, near Marinka, and south of Hulyaipole.
The Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD) announced on December 28 that Russia has over 640,000 contract servicemen (kontrakniki), the first Russian announcement about the number of kontrakniki in the Russian Armed Forces since the start of the full-scale invasion.
Russian occupation officials continue to deport Ukrainian children to Russia under the guise of medical necessity, despite an apparently growing number of cases of highly infectious diseases being transmitted among Ukrainian children en route to Russia.
quote:
Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov made a number of statements on December 28 that also run contrary to the reported backchannel messaging on which the NYT oped and similar arguments rely. Lavrov claimed on December 28 in another interview with RIA Novosti that “hints and leaks” in the Western media show that the West wants to look for a way to end the war in Ukraine while still declaring a Ukrainian victory – possibly in response to Western reports about Russia’s willingness to negotiate.[6] Lavrov also claimed that Ukrainian demands for the return of its 1991 borders amount to “demands for genocide.” Lavrov claimed that Ukrainians and Russians are “one people” and lamented the fall of the Soviet Union, after which millions of Russians were left outside of the borders of the Russian Federation--echoing many statements that Putin has made.[7] Lavrov’s statements appear to invoke the Kremlin’s concept of “compatriots abroad” that is used to justify Russia’s definition of its “sovereignty” and right to defend ethnic Russians and Russian speakers beyond its borders. The Kremlin has recently returned to its “compatriots abroad” narrative to justify its war in Ukraine and when discussing Russia’s imperial reconquests in and beyond Ukraine.[8]
The oped’s focus on the need for Ukraine to cede its land, finally, obscures the horrors that the Russian occupation is inflicting on the Ukrainian people living on that land. Russian forces and administrations have been engaging in large-scale and deliberate ethnic cleansing campaigns, forcibly and illegally deporting Ukrainians to Russia and replacing them with Russians and migrants to Russia.[9] Russian administrations have illegally deported tens of thousands of Ukrainian children to Russia under various schemes, including causing Russian families to adopt them.[10] Russian administrations are systematically working to eliminate the Ukrainian language, culture, history, and ethnicity in the areas that Russian forces occupy, as ISW has repeatedly documented.[11] Many of these activities appear to violate the Convention on the Prevention and Punishment of the Crime of Genocide and deserve at least a mention in discussions about how Ukraine’s president should cede Ukraine’s land and people to Russia
Posted on 12/29/23 at 1:40 am to StormyMcMan
quote:LINK
A Large-Scale Ballistic and Cruise Missile Attack by the Russian Armed Forces has occurred this morning against several Cities across Ukraine, including Odesa where a High-Rise Residential Building was Struck, Dnipro where a Shopping Complex was Struck, and even the Capital of Kyiv where a Railway Station as well as another Residential Building were Struck; there have also been reports of Explosions in the Cities of Lviv, Ternopil, and Kharkiv with this likely being the Largest Missile Attack by Russia against Ukraine since 2022.
Looks like Russia is taking out its anger at the UAF for sinking one of its ships on the Ukrainian people. Either that or the accuracy of Russia’s missiles is so terrible that they can’t hit the military targets they are aiming at.
Posted on 12/29/23 at 5:51 am to WeeWee
Random tweets
LINK
LINK
LINK
LINK
Eta
LINK
quote:
An unknown aerial object entered Polish airspace from Ukraine this morning, –– Polish army reports in X (Twitter).
It was monitored by radars until the signal was lost.
The President of Poland convened an urgent meeting with the military leadership after the violation of airspace by Ukraine, –– the Polish radio station RMF reports.
LINK
quote:
A maternity ward, educational facilities, a shopping mall, multi-story residential buildings and private homes, a commercial storage, and a parking lot. Kyiv, Lviv, Odesa, Dnipro, Kharkiv, Zaporizhzhia, and other cities.
Today, Russia used nearly every type of weapon in its arsenal: “Kindzhals,” S-300s, cruise missiles, and drones. Strategic bombers launched X-101/X-505 missiles. A total of around 110 missiles were fired against Ukraine, with the majority of them being shot down.
Unfortunately, there have been fatalities and injuries as a result of the strikes. All services are working around the clock and providing the necessary aid. My condolences to those who have lost their loved ones. I wish a speedy recovery to those injured.
We will surely respond to terrorist strikes. And we will continue to fight for the security of our entire country, every city, and every citizen. Russian terror must and will lose.
LINK
quote:
The Ukrainian Air Force says it shot down 114 out of 158 missiles and drones launched overnight, including 87 cruise missiles and 27 Shahed drones.
LINK
quote:
Ukraine now has no money to mobilize 500,000 more people - MP Zheleznyak
According to him, the country's budget for the war in 2024 is UAH 1.6 trillion, while in 2023 it was UAH 1.9 trillion, and "to increase the personnel by 500 000, it will be plus 580 billion hryvnia."
LINK
Eta
quote:
In Poland, a rocket fell on agricultural land in the Lublin Voivodeship near Wozhuchyn-Zukrovna, — Telewizja Republika.
The information is not officially confirmed yet.
russia is deliberately shelling Ukraine near the border with Poland, –– General of the Polish Army Roman Polko said.
"These are certainly provocative actions aimed at destabilizing or provoking the Polish side as well. This is important," –– he says.
LINK
This post was edited on 12/29/23 at 6:00 am
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