re: Latest Updates: Russia-Ukraine Conflict

I agree. I would bet that the truth is that Ukraine "has taken delivery" of the first F-16s, and those planes are now in Denmark with the pilots and ground crews who will fly and maintain them.

I'd guess that the planes are now officially the property of Ukraine, and people are confusing that with the idea that the planes are now inside Ukraine.

quote:

---

There’s no chance Ukraine has taken delivery of F-16s already and have both their pilots and ground crews checked out by their NATO instructors. There’s just way too much they both need to learn, how to fight the aircraft and for the boys on the ground how to keep her in the air and not the maintenance hangar. Think late March to early June for the first half dozen pilots and their ground crews to get the OK for combat sorties. Even that is a rushed timeline but these first 6 will be Ukraine’s best and most adept at the English language already.

---

If this mal-administration had any brains, that training would have taken place many months ago in secret. That's a big if.

One knowledgeable contractor with a bunch of talented aircraft mechanics can get things rolling quickly

There’s 3 ways as I see it, Ukraine doesn’t have air to air refueling capability and we wouldn’t put one of our tankers in danger being anywhere near the area for them to be of help so:
1. They launched from the area around Kherson which puts the Su-24M aircraft serious danger of both long range and short/medium range air defenses. Launching from this area would put the export Storm Shadow right at its max range to where it hit.
2. They went even more ballsy and launched out over the black sea south of Odessa somewhere flying nap of the earth the entire way, gaining a little altitude to launch, then back down on the deck and hauling arse back home.
3. Someone has been keeping secrets and the Ukrainians have their hands on some domestic full range Storm Shadow/SCALP with 300 miles of range.

Any of these lead back to one major focus of the Ukrainians these past few months. For months they have been working to slowly degrade Russia’s air defenses with the priority being mobile the mobile radars that the S-300 and S-400 use. The largest of these hits came on the northern part of Crimea about 2 months ago when they knocked out an S-400 battery on the shoreline. Just my theory.

quote:

---

Ukraine has fought this war for almost 2 years cost of 150 billion USD or so. If Ukraine gets 300 billion USD then they would be able to buy the stuff they need to fight for another 3 and 1/2 to 4 years.

---

Seizing those assets, many of which are not even part of the Russian govt, and then selling them, that opens the door for any US assets abroad, you realize that?????

And here is a novel idea, if they take 300 billion in assets how about they take 150 billion and pay us back our fricking money.

They NYT had an opinion piece this week about Ukraine looking for a peace deal and letting Russia keep what they have.

Fellas, when the Times (insert CIA/FBI) start posting articles like that, its over, time to pack the bags and call it a day. They are looking for a way for biden to back out without losing face with a pending election. They will be hailing his peace deal very soon.

Random tweets

quote:

---

Poland continues to block the border with Ukraine, about 4 thousand trucks are waiting in queues.

Andriy Demchenko, the spokesman of the State Security Service of Ukraine, announced this.

"The directions of the checkpoints Rava-Ruska-Grebenne, Krakivec-Korchova, and Yagodin-Dorohusk continue to be blocked," –– Demchenko noted.

---

LINK

RWA

quote:

---

I think ???????-?????????'s assessment of recent political events in Ukraine is the most correct so far:

“The harsh draft law on mobilization, which includes measures for the forced return of Ukrainians living in Europe, as well as statements that Ukraine will stop paying government employees and halt social welfare payments, including pensions, if there is no help from the West, are all part of a public information campaign aimed at extracting money and weapons from the West.

And one can understand the Ukrainian leadership; the situation has reached a dead end, something needs to be done, using the entire arsenal of persuasion.

The argument ‘If Ukraine does not stop Russia, then it will attack NATO and EU countries’ has worn itself out and no longer evokes any emotions.

They have resorted to the argument ‘Then we will kill another half a million Ukrainians and starve the pensioners to death.’

I don’t know if they realize in Kiev what they have come up with, as usually in a dead end situation people are not capable of a sound assessment of their own actions, but from the outside, it looks as if the Ukrainian authorities have taken the Ukrainians hostage and are demanding a ransom for their lives.”

---

LINK

quote:

---

The range of Storm Shadow missiles handed over to Ukraine is twice as long as expected - German military expert Erhard Bühler on the destruction of the landing ship Novocherkassk in the port of Feodosiya

Previously, it was believed that Ukraine had received an export version of these missiles with a range of 250 kilometers. However, according to Bühler, if the AFU managed to reach Feodosiya, this may indicate that they have the original version of the Storm Shadow missile with a range of 560 km, which is part of the NATO arsenal.

---

LINK


I came across this LINK about eggs in Russia that led me to this article -Worry in Russia as egg prices soar ahead of festive season

quote:

---

Surging egg prices, against a backdrop of high inflation and economic sanctions, are worrying the Russian authorities, especially as eggs are a symbolic and central ingredient of the festive season...

But the purchasing power of Russians has indeed eroded over the past two years, due to a very weak rouble and stubbornly high inflation, which in November stood at 7.48% year-on-year...

In November, the average price of eggs in Russia rose by 40.29% year-on-year, according to the Russian Federal State Statistics Service (Rosstat)...

In response, the Federal Service for Veterinary and Phytosanitary Supervision (Rosselkhoznadzor) on Friday authorised the import of eggs from Turkey, and the Russian Ministry of Agriculture is proposing a six-month ban on egg exports.

Last week, Prosecutor General Igor Krasnov ordered prosecutors to launch regional checks on producers and sales outlets for any unjustified price rises.

Inflation in egg prices also led to some unusual scenes on Saturday, with crowds queuing up for eggs at an agricultural fair in the Belgorod region because prices were much lower than in supermarkets, according to videos that have gone viral on social media...

According to experts quoted by Russian media, the rise in egg prices is due to the increase in the cost of poultry feed and veterinary products, an indirect consequence of Western sanctions, which have led to a rise in the price of imported products.

According to Rosstat, the price of chicken rose by 29.26% in November 2023 compared with the same month the previous year.

Russian families are closely monitoring the price of eggs in December, as eggs and mayonnaise are central ingredients in end-of-year festive meals, particularly the Olivier salad, a Russian New Year's Eve staple.

---

quote:

---

The Panamanian flagged merchant ship Vyssos, bound for Izmail, reportedly hit a mine when entering the Danube Delta on the Ukrainian side yesterday.

---

LINK

quote:

---

In the course of three months, 16-year-old boys will be put on military registration in the LPR, reported the head of the Luhansk Regional Military Administration, Artem Lysohor.

Older men who have bypassed the military commissariats since the occupation will also be identified - they will be accounted for until December 31.

Enterprises, institutions and organizations were also involved in this work in order to obtain the necessary personal data of men. Educational institutions, in particular, must ensure the urgent attendance of young men at military commissariats.

---

LINK

quote:

---

The Russian Orthodox Church officially recognized abortion as murder

The Holy Synod adopted the document "On the inviolability of human life from the moment of conception." In it, termination of pregnancy at any stage is considered murder.

---

LINK

quote:

---

Putin intends to go to war with Ukraine for at least 5 years - Nikkei Asia citing sources

Putin told Xi Jinping about such intentions during his visit to Moscow in March this year.

---

LINK

Russia nears end of rate rise cycle with hike to 16%

quote:

---

Russia's central bank raised its key interest rate by 100 basis points to 16% on Friday, hiking borrowing costs for the fifth consecutive meeting in response to stubborn inflation, and suggested that its tightening cycle was now close to completion.

The bank has raised rates by 850 basis points since July, including an emergency hike in August after the Kremlin called for tighter monetary policy when the rouble tumbled past 100 to the dollar. It has since recovered to just over 90.

The bank said pro-inflationary risks over the medium-term horizon remained substantial and warned that stabilising inflation near its 4% target would require high rates for a long time. Higher-than-expected government spending would also raise inflation risks, it said.

---

FWIW this is why the US had wage and price controls in WWII.

quote:

---

The central bank's tightening cycle began this summer when inflationary pressure from a tight labour market, strong consumer demand and the government's budget deficit was compounded by the falling rouble.

The bank said labour market conditions were the key supply-side constraint on the Russian economy, which it said was still suffering from significant labour shortages, especially in manufacturing.

But economic growth is set to outperform previous forecasts and exceed 3% this year, the bank said, driven by domestic demand propelled by rising lending and wages.

---

quote:

---

"We still think more tightening is to come as inflation pressures build further," said Liam Peach, senior emerging markets economist at Capital Economics, who said he expected another hike to 17% next year.

JP Morgan's Anatoliy Shal said this was likely the last step in the tightening cycle, with current policy already sufficiently, if not overly, restrictive, and he expected rates to be cut to around 10% by end-2024.

Russia had gradually reversed an emergency hike to 20% which it made in February 2022 after Moscow sent its troops into Ukraine, prompting sweeping Western sanctions. It cut rates to as low as 7.5% earlier this year.

Putin on Thursday said annual inflation could approach 8% this year, well above the central bank's 4% target. He even issued a rare apology when a pensioner complained to him about the price of eggs.

The central bank reiterated its expectation that inflation would end the year at the upper end of its 7-7.5% forecast range.

"Inflation expectations have remained high for many years in a row," Nabiullina said. "This really worries us."

Next year, the bank expects year-end inflation at 4-4.5%, although Nabiullina admitted that the risk of inflation being higher was far greater than it falling below target.

---

quote:

---

how about they take 150 billion and pay us back our fricking money.

---

You did know that we haven’t given Ukraine 150 B in cash, right? Or did that news not reach Trinidad either?

quote:

---

They NYT had an opinion piece this week about Ukraine looking for a peace deal and letting Russia keep what they have.

---

Oh, the war is over again? Shame that Russian ship got blown up for nothing, then.

Meanwhile, outside of opinion pieces, Ukraine is attacking Russian logistics infrastructure in/around Crimea, isolating the island and starting to squeeze their ability to supply military aid.

quote:

---

Shame that Russian ship got blown up for nothing, then.

---

Ukraine will be able to hit targets far behind the Russian lines for as long as they have missiles.

What they will not do, is drive the Russians out of Ukraine. The primary reason is they lack the manpower. Thinking people have recognized this for quite some time.