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Started By
Message
re: Latest Updates: Russia-Ukraine Conflict
Posted on 12/18/23 at 5:47 am to NC_Tigah
Posted on 12/18/23 at 5:47 am to NC_Tigah
quote:
Doubtful. He wants a do-over on the Feb-Mar22 attack. He's not getting that.
I don’t understand what you mean here.
quote:
OTOH, a negotiated settlement should have occurred Apr22. Parties should be at the table now.
There have been more chances than in just April. I’m not sure why you are so focused on April. The Ukrainians have met with every peace delegation from China to the African delegation to the Saudi’s. Each plan has called for the withdrawal of Russian troops. Why the focus is on a plan for which we can’t see the actual text is curious. What if the Russians will not accept any plan that calls for withdrawal? What if you are believing specific characterizations while ignoring reality?
There is no real reason to focus exclusively on the April 2022 deal in truth.
quote:
If not, then Putin's calculus that the West will tire of supporting Ukraine, and he will eventually get "what he wants," may be dangerously accurate
Like I’ve said, the geopolitical situation is fricked for the foreseeable future irrespective of Ukraine. The likelihood is that this region will remain a geopolitical flashpoint for decades. There isn't a possibility of rapprochement with Russia when it sees a problem with the indivisibility of European security. Russian security isn’t more important than the security of their neighbors. The Eastern Europeans who joined NATO did so because they did not trust any Russian-led security umbrella.
This post was edited on 12/18/23 at 8:25 am
2
Posted on 12/18/23 at 7:12 am to crazy4lsu
Ukraine has had a rough stretch of 2-3 months. Between losing ground, losing funding, not getting the assurances they were expecting from western partners, etc... not a good look.
Everyone talks about $130b to Ukraine, but what will it cost to build permanent defensive structures and man them for the next 25+ years if Russia keeps moving west?
Everyone talks about $130b to Ukraine, but what will it cost to build permanent defensive structures and man them for the next 25+ years if Russia keeps moving west?
Posted on 12/18/23 at 7:53 am to RuLSU
British Defence Intelligence
INTELLIGENCE UPDATE
UPDATE ON UKRAINE
18 December 2023
Members of Russian Shtorm-Z units are highly likely being returned to combat duties with unhealed wounds, and even after limb amputations. This follows credible reports that members of Shtorm-Z, Donetsk militias, and Wagner Group have frequently received minimal or no treatment.
It is likely that convict recruits - who make up a large proportion of Shtorm-Z units - are especially liable to receive poor treatment. One reason is that prisoners often lack the paperwork required to access military hospitals.
Whilst reducing pressure on an overburdened military medical system, the lack of proper in-theatre medical attention will transfer the administrative and medical burden back to troops' home units.
INTELLIGENCE UPDATE
UPDATE ON UKRAINE
18 December 2023
Members of Russian Shtorm-Z units are highly likely being returned to combat duties with unhealed wounds, and even after limb amputations. This follows credible reports that members of Shtorm-Z, Donetsk militias, and Wagner Group have frequently received minimal or no treatment.
It is likely that convict recruits - who make up a large proportion of Shtorm-Z units - are especially liable to receive poor treatment. One reason is that prisoners often lack the paperwork required to access military hospitals.
Whilst reducing pressure on an overburdened military medical system, the lack of proper in-theatre medical attention will transfer the administrative and medical burden back to troops' home units.
Posted on 12/18/23 at 7:58 am to RuLSU
quote:
Everyone talks about $130b to Ukraine, but what will it cost to build permanent defensive structures and man them for the next 25+ years if Russia keeps moving west?
If Russia keeps moving west the defense structures wouldn’t be permanent, right?
Right now the war is at a stalemate. With a few minor changes, the lines are static. Both sides are digging in. It is a war of attrition.
Will Russia give it up? Will Ukraine give in? Will the West wash there hands of Ukraine and leave them hanging?
I think door three the most likely, but door one wouldn’t shock me either.
Posted on 12/18/23 at 8:14 am to crazy4lsu
quote:Which part is confusing?
He wants a do-over on the Feb-Mar22 attack. He's not getting that.
---
I don’t understand what you mean here
The Feb-Mar22 attack where Russia overstepped and got its arse kicked, or the fact Putin would like a second first-bite at that apple?
The Russian military intended to overwhelm Ukrainian resistance which would have enabled Putin et al to occupy Kyiv, seize the eastern oblasts, depose the Zelenskyy government, and install a pro-Russian regime. Given the Russian-Ukraine differential, that effort was conceptually accomplishable. Poor planning and execution, along with a fierce Ukrainian response, killed it though.
If Lee had a do-over to take Little Round Top Day#1, Gettysburg would likely be remembered as a southern rout. There are no do-overs in war.
quote:Turkey?
There have been more chances than in just April. I’m not sure why you are so focused on Israel.
The focus should be on April 2022 because by the outset of that month, 1 1/2yrs and several hundred thousand lives ago, Russian and Ukrainian negotiators appeared to have tentatively agreed on outlines of a negotiated settlement. Was there another occasion in which that was true?
quote:Russia's nuclear capability renders that as conceptually naive and painfully dumb as the policy of German energy dependence on Russian NatGas which we discussed earlier.
Russian security isn’t more important than the security of their neighbors.
Put another way, were yours an accurate premise, and if security was a simple matter of egalité and uniform importance, Ukraine would have retained its nukes.
Posted on 12/18/23 at 8:47 am to NC_Tigah
quote:
Turkey?
Sorry, my phone autocorrected April to Israel for some reason.
quote:
The focus should be on April 2022 because by the outset of that month, 1 1/2yrs and several hundred thousand lives ago, Russian and Ukrainian negotiators appeared to have tentatively agreed on outlines of a negotiated settlement. Was there another occasion in which that was true?
They weren't any closer to a settlement then they were when various mediators offered ten or twelve point plans. Again, all we've seen is characterizations of this outline, but no actual evidence that it existed on paper. At least with the others, there is some actual text to refer to. Here we have to rely on Fiona Hill and the word of several sources, not any actual document.
quote:
Russia's nuclear capability renders that as conceptually naive and painfully dumb as the policy of German energy dependence on Russian NatGas which we discussed earlier.
But they can't leverage that into assuring that other nations cannot join an alliance which offers them protection against that exact sort of bullying. In that calculus, it is extremely easy to see why countries spend considerable amount of time and resources attempting to join NATO and the EU.
If Russian security is contingent on countries near it not joining an alliance which affords them protection from Russian nuclear threats, then it shouldn't be surprised when nations, who do not want to be under Russian sphere of influence, do everything they can to avoid being under the Russian sphere of influence. Their actions have ensured that outcome.
quote:
Put another way, were yours an accurate premise, and if security was a simple matter of egalité and uniform importance, Ukraine would have retained its nukes.
Uh that's not the context of how and why Ukraine gave up their nukes, but the lesson from it is that nations should pursue nuclear weapons if possible for state security reasons.
Posted on 12/18/23 at 10:33 am to NC_Tigah
quote:
The focus should be on April 2022 because by the outset of that month, 1 1/2yrs and several hundred thousand lives ago, Russian and Ukrainian negotiators appeared to have tentatively agreed on outlines of a negotiated settlement. Was there another occasion in which that was true?
Actually Ukraine and Russia previously reached agreements.
Budapest accords 1994
Friendship Treaty 1997
Minsk 1 Sept 5, 2014
Minsk 2 Feb 11, 2015
Steinmeier Formula August, 2019
You keep harping on April 7, as if there was a deal made public and the two leaders were ready to sign, but there wasn’t. Besides peace terms and peace efforts by various have been ongoing for months and nothing of substance has occurred.
Deals have been made with Russia before. Those deals were broken. A deal with Russia to stop fighting had been struck already. It fell apart as Russia tried to take advantage of the situation. The same thing would likely happen again.
Posted on 12/18/23 at 10:43 am to doubleb
quote:
You keep harping on April 7, as if there was a deal made public and the two leaders were ready to sign
I'm simply quoting contemporary Ukrainian Press accounts, and folks who claim to have spoken to parties in the discussions.
Posted on 12/18/23 at 10:55 am to doubleb
Denmark and Sweden announced today that they are spending $263 million to buy additional CV-90 IFVs for Ukraine. That money likely represents something in the range of 30-50 vehicles.
EDIT: Hmm ... another source indicates that the $263 million is only the Danish contribution, so the total number of vehicles could be much higher.
In any case, this is a contract for new manufacturing, so these vehicles will not arrive in Ukraine for some time.
EDIT: Hmm ... another source indicates that the $263 million is only the Danish contribution, so the total number of vehicles could be much higher.
In any case, this is a contract for new manufacturing, so these vehicles will not arrive in Ukraine for some time.
This post was edited on 12/18/23 at 11:01 am
Posted on 12/18/23 at 12:27 pm to GOP_Tiger
quote:
CV-90 IFVs for Ukraine
Posted on 12/18/23 at 12:50 pm to Auburn1968
quote:
Russian President Vladimir Putin on Monday urged traditionally male professions to employ more women, to reduce major labor shortages exacerbated by thousands of soldiers being called up to fight in Ukraine.
Russia has for years been suffering from a shrinking labor force because of persistently low birth rates, and this has been aggravated by the conflict in Ukraine.
The mobilization of hundreds of thousands of men took them out of the job market and prompted many of the most educated sections of the population to flee the country.
"Girls represent a huge reserve for Russia. In sectors where they are not yet working, they need to exploit their potential to the fullest," Putin said.
Putin praised women who were studying to join the Air Force.
"In our flight schools, girls are already flying combat aircraft. The minister (of defense) reported that they do it brilliantly, while it always seemed that it was a purely male profession.
"Today, all boundaries are being erased."
But the Russian leader, a long-time defender of so-called traditional values, nuanced his comment.
"Of course, there are some limitations related to health, anatomy, maybe to family," Putin continued.
"(If) there is a long business trip... who do the kids stay with?" he wondered.
He nevertheless said these issues "can be solved" and restrictions to women's work should be lifted.
Putin's comments came a few days after he launched a presidential re-election campaign that is expected to enable him to stay in the Kremlin until at least 2030.
https://www.themoscowtimes.com/2023/12/18/putin-says-girls-are-russias-labour-force-reserve-a83471
Posted on 12/18/23 at 1:03 pm to NC_Tigah
quote:
I'm simply quoting contemporary Ukrainian Press accounts, and folks who claim to have spoken to parties in the discussions.
I keep posting signed agreements that Russia agreed to, and you keep posting unverified rumors.
Posted on 12/18/23 at 1:13 pm to doubleb
quote:LINK
During 10.12-16-12.23 was the largest offence from the South of Avdiivka since 10.10.23 (the beginning of the operation). Only for one day, 10.12.23, they have lost 9 tanks.
It looks like last week was a bad one for Mother Russia. Large push, lots of losses, and very little ground gained.
Posted on 12/18/23 at 1:26 pm to RuLSU
quote:
Ukraine has had a rough stretch of 2-3 months. Between losing ground, losing funding, not getting the assurances they were expecting from western partners, etc... not a good look.
They have been rough but they will survive it.
quote:
Everyone talks about $130b to Ukraine, but what will it cost to build permanent defensive structures and man them for the next 25+ years if Russia keeps moving west?
A lot
Posted on 12/18/23 at 1:46 pm to LSUPilot07
quote:
Russia lost an Su-34 fighter-bomber aircraft after Ukraine attacked a Russian air base on Saturday night into Sunday morning, Ukrainian media reported. Separately, Ukraine's air force said Moscow had shot down one of its own Su-25 tactical bomber jets on Sunday.
This post was edited on 12/18/23 at 1:47 pm
Posted on 12/18/23 at 1:59 pm to SirWinston
Russia is having to train women as combat aircraft pilots. Putin has also called for women to make arrangements for child rearing and take what is normally male jobs. Lots of labor shortages.
Posted on 12/18/23 at 2:26 pm to WeeWee
This is a point in history that I had never seen, but it is background that underlies parts of the current war.
How Poland Stopped the Red Army in 1920
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-EZO12D1RlQ
How Poland Stopped the Red Army in 1920
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-EZO12D1RlQ
Posted on 12/18/23 at 2:59 pm to SirWinston
There are photos of at least one with shrapnel holes through the vertical stabilizer and engines. That alone is enough to write off an aircraft if the airframe was compromised.
Posted on 12/18/23 at 3:11 pm to Auburn1968
A new poll in Ukraine got some headlines last week by showing that only 62% of Ukrainians trust Zelensky. Why? Many think that he isn't doing enough to combat corruption.
I am a strong supporter of Ukraine, and I think that the millions of dollars that we are spending to track our donations (including putting a number of US military accountants in Kyiv) is more than adequate to ensure that US resources are being used properly, but there's a new article in Business Insider that is worth reading.
LINK
The article highlights a number of concerns about Zelensky's right-hand man, Andriy Yermak, and questions whether the Zelensky government is pushing out an old generation of oligarchs -- only to usher in a new group.
I'm not going to excerpt the article. It's too long, and it deserves to be read in full. Some of my fellow supporters of Ukraine may dislike the hard-hitting nature of the piece, but this is the kind of sunlight that is necessary for Ukraine to continue to receive the kind of aid that it needs, even if it also feeds the arguments of Ukraine's detractors in the meantime.
I am a strong supporter of Ukraine, and I think that the millions of dollars that we are spending to track our donations (including putting a number of US military accountants in Kyiv) is more than adequate to ensure that US resources are being used properly, but there's a new article in Business Insider that is worth reading.
LINK
The article highlights a number of concerns about Zelensky's right-hand man, Andriy Yermak, and questions whether the Zelensky government is pushing out an old generation of oligarchs -- only to usher in a new group.
I'm not going to excerpt the article. It's too long, and it deserves to be read in full. Some of my fellow supporters of Ukraine may dislike the hard-hitting nature of the piece, but this is the kind of sunlight that is necessary for Ukraine to continue to receive the kind of aid that it needs, even if it also feeds the arguments of Ukraine's detractors in the meantime.
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