re: Latest Updates: Russia-Ukraine Conflict

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E.g., German dependence on Russian NatGas a few years back. I assessed Germany's position as "dumb." Why? Because Russia was ... wait4it ... not trustworthy. Many here disagreed, as did our MSM, and German politicians. JFWIW.

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But that's a very superficial reading of that situation in particular. First, the term is called Wandel durch Handel, or change through trade. The point is to engage authoritarian countries through trade in hopes of inducing political change. They were attempting to follow the economic integration model followed after the second WW in hopes that integration would dissuade Russian aggression. Fears of post-Soviet revanchist goals were so explicit that Warsaw Pact countries sought out Western countries before the end of the Soviet Union.

The Germans knew the calculus, that the Russians were not trustworthy but made the decision because the economic cost was less than a potential armed conflict. It also helped that Russian money ended up in the pockets of European politicians, as Russia was attempting to undermine European security indivisibility since 2000 in earnest. The Russians simultaneously traded with Europe while also trying to undermine Europe.

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In these discussions, it strikes me as ridiculous that one guilty, duplicitous party would point fingers at another while labeling that party guilty and duplicitous. Denial of the former by folks here simply worsens the foundational pretext. That has zip to do with me trusting the Russians.

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But you are the one who is giving the Russians the benefit of the doubt. As in, there was good reason to scuttle potential talks, in which nothing existed on paper, in April of 2022. Because the balance of Russian duplicity had swung against them. It isn't like the European and American security apparatus didn't know what the Russian security state was trying to do. They knew, like I said, in 2000. By 2004 it was made very clear. It took a long time to convince various European political factions, primarily the Germans and the French, of Russian duplicity, when everyone else in NATO was convinced of it. America's behavior before the Iraq War didn't help, as the French and Germans questioned the nature of the intelligence the Americans had literally right before the Russian invasion, when that intelligence turned out to be 100% accurate.

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Nor does my position holding peace should have been attained 1 1/2 yrs ago have to do with me being a peacenik or presuming any such settlement would be fair for Ukraine. It is simply a matter of logical pragmatism.

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Okay, but you aren't thinking this through. A peace deal at that time isn't a lasting peace. There is no possibility for lasting peace. That ended in February 2022. If the Russians wanted peace, they could have sought it out, as the beginnings of a framework for negotiations were there. There was not more that Macron could offer.

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"We" pressed Putin, using Ukrainian bodies as cannon fodder.

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But you are making the same calculation, trading Ukrainian life in the future for the hope that the Russians could be held back by any agreement now. If the last 20 years of European politics has shown, it was that the calls to completely sideline Russia in the aftermath of the USSR were right. The Eastern European countries who were desperate to join NATO and the EU were right and in fact were extremely prescient with their concerns about what the Russians envisioned as their own security.

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I strongly suspect Zelenskyy was made an exceedingly rich man in exchange.

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Either give evidence for this or shut up.

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Regardless, >200K deaths later, with little territory gained or lost, what is the endpoint? The endpoint, is basically the map and occupied territory as it currently sits, plus sundry negotiated conceded points, and the only remaining question is how high will the body count climb before the sides finally sign off on an agreement?

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What? At issue was far more than that. The Ukrainians retook Kharkiv and Kherson well after April.

The reality of the issue is that it is only a question of 'when' Russia will continue antagonism toward Ukraine in the event of a negotiated settlement. The die has been cast by the Russians themselves. They are in a geopolitical quagmire, as there is no easy way to achieve their goals. They certainly aren't going to break up the 'indivisibility' of Euro-Atlantic security, as their actions ensured that. They have a larger border with NATO, are completely cut off from Kalingrad, and will absolutely not achieve any demilitarization in Eastern Europe.

Russia being Russia. Downed their own Su-25. At least Ukraine didn’t need to waste a missile if the enemy will do their job for them.

LINK

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LOL.

The one where Estonia says, "Hey American taxpayers, send $130 billion to Ukraine so they can win!"

Hard pass.

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No, that's the total cost for all of Ukraine's allies. Europe is now contributing more aid to Ukraine than the US is.

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Putin himself has withdrawn from every proposal put in front of him, including the one that you claim Borris tanked

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That is false, of course. Putin ended dialogue after BJ scuttled the talks.

Here is Fiona Hill's take:

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According to multiple former senior U.S. officials, in April 2022, Russian and Ukrainian negotiators appeared to have tentatively agreed on the outlines of a negotiated interim settlement: Russia would withdraw to its position on February 23, when it controlled part of the Donbas region and all of Crimea, and in exchange, Ukraine would promise not to seek NATO membership and instead receive security guarantees from a number of countries.

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Evidence of my suspicion?
You mean like Mrs. Zelenskyy shopping in überluxury shops all over the world?
or do you mean common sense?

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What is so wrong by Zelensky making a lot of money not only for his stage presence but also for partial ownership of his very popular TV shows? Man of the People was also quite popular in Russia. He sold the rights of the shows to a Russian company as well. Optics aren't the best especially to the low intellect crowd.

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Do you have tertiary syphilis? I'm not sure how this is an answer for anything.

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To be kind (and I am making the attempt), your lack of certainty is noted, yet again.

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You didn't even know the German foreign policy had a name.

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dumm ist wer dummes tut

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There was never an actual draft of any agreement to my knowledge.

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Your knowledge is not the gage ... obviously.

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No. A deal five years from now in the same conditions isn't going to lead to a lasting peace.

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First, you're dead wrong. A DMZ and neutral oversight could lead to a lasting peace at any point. Regardless, if the outcome is unchanged anyway, why the hell would another several hundred thousand people have to die? So "we" can further press Putin?

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Your knowledge is not the gage ... obviously.

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Again, produce the text of the agreement and not just characterizations in the media of what it could potentially include. I’m talking about an actual draft of an agreement.

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First, you're dead wrong. A DMZ and neutral oversight could lead to a lasting peace at any point.

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In what world would this ever happen?

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Regardless, if the outcome is unchanged anyway, why the hell would another several hundred thousand people have to die?

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You should also ask this question of Putin. You understand that he has also rejected deals offered by the Chinese and an African delegation led by Cyril Ramaphosa. His calculus is that the West will tire of supporting Ukraine and he will eventually get what he wants.

And again, the Russian geopolitical situation is a dilemma. They definitely did not plan for it. And they have no solution irrespective of what occurs in Ukraine.

Just some additional context on those first few points

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Putin gave an extended interview with Russian state TV channel Rossiya 1 on December 17, wherein he attempted to deny US President Joe Biden’s December 6 warning that Russia would attack a NATO country in the future if it won the war in Ukraine.[1] Putin argued that Russia does not have any geopolitical, economic, military, or territorial reason to fight NATO and that Russia is interested in developing relations with NATO member states.[2] Putin followed this supposed reassurance with an accusation that NATO member states artificially created conflict between Russia and Finland and “dragged“ Finland into the NATO alliance.[3] Putin stated that “there will be problems” with Finland and that Finland’s NATO accession prompted Russian officials to start forming the Leningrad Military District (LMD) and concentrating military units in northwestern Russia.

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Putin threatened Poland on July 21, stating that Russia would respond “with all the means” at its disposal after Warsaw sent troops to the Belarusian-Polish border due to the redeployment of Wagner Group fighters to Belarus.[8] Deputy Chairman of the Russian Security Council Dmitry Medvedev threatened on August 29 that Russia had “an opportunity to act within the framework of jus ad bellum against everyone in NATO countries” when commenting on Western support of Ukrainian strikes on occupied Crimea.[9] Medvedev similarly threatened Poland in November when he stated that Russia deems Warsaw to be a “dangerous enemy” that could lose its “statehood.”[10] A Russian propagandist suggested on Russian state TV on December 2 that Baltic states would be Russia’s next military target and that they would fall shortly after Ukraine.[11] Russian propagandist Vladimir Solovyov, Medvedev, and other pundits consistently threaten to use nuclear weapons against the United States and other NATO countries.[12] These threats are part of long-standing Russian narratives about attacking NATO that predated Finland’s application and acceptance into the alliance on April 4.[13] The statements of Russian pundits do not pose a military threat to NATO countries, to be sure, but they are important context for Putin’s ostensible effort to calm the waters during his December 17 interview. Putin’s proclamation that Russia has no interest in invading NATO is also very similar to the Kremlin’s persistent claims in late 2021 and early 2022 — including right up to the eve of the invasion — that Russia did not intend to invade Ukraine.

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Putin stated on December 17 that Russia does not have any “territorial disputes” with NATO countries in order to mask his actual long-standing objective to weaken Western unity and coerce NATO into abandoning its core principles, such as the “Open Door Policy,” which allows the alliance at its discretion to admit new members and is enshrined in the NATO Charter.[16] Putin has been consistently pursuing this goal throughout his regime and demonstrated his full commitment to it by ordering the Russian Foreign Ministry (MFA) to issue ultimatums to the US and NATO in December 2021 demanding “security guarantees” from NATO and commitments not to expand, among other things

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Putin wants NATO to recognize Russia’s claims, demands, and perceived sphere of influence and has repeatedly indicated Russia’s intent to end “US hegemony.”

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Putin stated that he believes that the United States was interested in inflicting a “strategic defeat” on Russia 20 years ago but that this objective is not currently in the US national interest.[23] Putin responded to a journalist’s question about how Russia can find common ground with the United States, stating that the United States will need to be the one to find common ground as the United States will need to “reckon” with Russia, suggesting that Putin believes the US to be the weaker power and that Russia‘s perceived position of strength means that Russia has no need to find “common ground” or engage in serious diplomatic negotiations with the United States.[24] Both these statements can be perceived as thinly-veiled threats against the United States and NATO. Putin’s statements indicate that he continues to believe that the West has been weakening relative to Russia over the past two decades — a view Putin has been articulating since at least 2014.

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OTOH, a negotiated settlement should have occurred Apr22. Parties should be at the table now.

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Multiple nations have tried to mediate peace talks for months. Russia thinks the West will cave and Ukraine isn’t giving up their sovereignty.