re: Latest Updates: Russia-Ukraine Conflict

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What is new in the world?

??An American military plane crashed during a training flight over the eastern Mediterranean Sea. Nothing is known about the fate of the crew.

??Israel has sold the "Sling of David" missile defense system to Finland. This is the first deal to sell this missile defense system abroad.

??A town in Iceland near the capital could be destroyed by a volcanic eruption expected within the next few hours or days, – The Guardian.

??The United States plans to prevent russia from becoming one of the main exporters of liquefied natural gas, which could cause disruptions in global energy markets, – Financial Times

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Those who leave and those who stay
What drives the Russian men continuing to enlist to fight in Ukraine and what sets them apart from the wider population? We analysed their social media profiles to find out

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According to the authorities, between 1,000 and 1,500 Russians sign up to serve in the country’s military every day. While some genuinely believe that in doing so they are defending the motherland, others see going to war as well-paid temporary work. Many never return.

To understand why Russians are still volunteering to go to war, Novaya-Europe selected 675 names from the list of Russia’s war dead maintained jointly by Mediazona and the BBC and analysed their profiles on social media platform VK in an attempt to establish what a typical volunteer’s profile looked like.

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The temporary worker
Nikita’s life path tallies almost perfectly with that of the average volunteer. He was born and raised in a small town and did his mandatory military service after school. Our analysis of VK profiles shows that men who served in the army are more than twice as likely to be volunteers as those in the control group. Nikita didn’t go on to higher education: volunteers do so only half as often on average. Only his age is atypical: the average volunteer is 40 while Nikita was 26.

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This profile correlates very well with survey results, says Andrey Tkachenko of the Chronicles research project, which studies the attitude of Russians to the war in Ukraine. “As part of our research, we ask men aged 18–59 whether they would be willing to take part in the “special military operation” in Ukraine. Those who say yes are less likely to have a higher education or permanent jobs, and are more likely to live in rural areas and/or regions where they earn a low income,” he explains.

If we compare the profile of a volunteer with that of someone who actively supports the war on VK, but doesn’t go to fight, we see they have almost nothing in common. Unlike volunteers, active supporters of the war are most often state employees whose active pro-war stance on VK is likely a requirement from above.

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Judging from their VK subscriptions, the hobbies of military volunteers are similar to those of the general population. For example, Sergey from the Orenburg region liked sport and Dmitry from the Irkutsk region repaired cars. The average volunteer has absolutely standard Russian male interests: cars, films, music, sports, as well as a bit of history and science.

According to Tkachenko, respondents with relatives in eastern Ukraine are much more likely to support the “special military operation,” are more willing to fight, and are more likely to have relatives at the front. Having friends or relatives in eastern Ukraine triggers volunteers’ sense of justice, Tkachenko believes, and allows them to feel they’re fighting for a noble cause.

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According to Tkachenko, respondents with relatives in eastern Ukraine are much more likely to support the “special military operation,” are more willing to fight, and are more likely to have relatives at the front. Having friends or relatives in eastern Ukraine triggers volunteers’ sense of justice, Tkachenko believes, and allows them to feel they’re fighting for a noble cause.

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Sasha Kappinen, from the Public Social Laboratory (PS Lab), an independent research group focusing on Russian politics and society, believes that the wariness of official sources demonstrated by volunteers related to their time at the front themselves. Their experience is usually at odds with how pro-government media depict what is happening.

“In small towns, almost everyone has a friend or relative who is either at war now or has been in the past,” says Kappinen. “So many residents get information on the fighting from eyewitnesses. When they recount stories from people they know who have been at the front, the most common reaction is, ‘That’s not what you see on TV’.”

Volunteers tended not to change their views and continued to consider the war a just cause even after hearing first-hand accounts of the lack of supplies, of people being blown to pieces by landmines, and the general carnage of the front, says Kappinen.

Disappointment with the Russian army doesn’t necessarily lead to an anti-war stance. The level of support for the war among volunteers is far higher than among the wider male population, or at least, it was before volunteers arrived at the front — whether or not volunteers’ views changed after serving is impossible to say.

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I always wonder, when did we start believing Russia?

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Also that the Orthodox Church was banned. The only thing banned was the Russian Orthodox Church which is ruled by the FSB. This ended up morphing into Zelinksy banned Christianity. I can guarantee that politards are populated by those whose dogs ate their report cards when they didn't graduate 6th grade with Jethro Bodine.

He keeps telling us "the war is over". And people keep dying. Tanks keep getting blown up. Russian ships keep sinking.

It doesn't look over to me. But I guess it's the western propaganda deep state MIC I'm believing, and not my lying eyes?

Your guy is pulling men out of bus stations to fight!

I've said before that my predictions are worth what you pay to read them, but I'm increasingly confident that we will see the following two developments in the next few months:


1) Russia is going to take Avdiivka.

Russia has already incurred enormous losses in attacking Avdiivka. You might think that would cause Russia to reconsider whether completing the conquest of the ruined town would be worth it, but it actually just activates the sunk cost fallacy.

It certainly would be wrong to say that Avdiivka is without strategic value but the key value of this former suburb of is the domestic propaganda value. For the average Russian, so much of the casus belli for last year's invasion was something like:

"Ukraine has bombed the poor residents of Donetsk City on a daily basis since 2014. We need to save those people by pushing Ukraine away from Donetsk."

Currently, although Russia has made significant advances on Avdiivka's northern flank, they are still not close to cutting off Ukrainian supply lines. As the mud season gets worse, both sides' supply lines will be complicated.

It's going to cost Russia massive numbers of troops and armored vehicles to complete the conquest of Avdiivka, but they're going to do it.


2) Ukraine's operation across the Dnipro in South Kherson is going to change the direction of the war.

Ukraine is pushing more armored vehicles across the Dnipro every day. I haven't seen any destroyed on video except one Humvee that had gotten stuck in the mud and abandoned.

And every day, Ukraine has been making more progress from their bridgehead at Krynky, taking much of the forest belt between the river and the road.

And Ukraine has local artillery dominance from across the river and local drone dominance in the area. I see every reason that Ukraine will continue to make progress in this sector, as Russia doesn't have enough troops in the area and doesn't have any reserves to send, as Russia committed everyone they had to the Avdiivka assault.

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If y’all stopped feeding this troll he’d lose interest

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Lose interest? In a bunch of people calling me a Russian apologist who simp for a NAZI comedian in cargo shorts?



Nah. This is beyond any psychiatrists's scope.

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You are reaching, clinging on to anything that you can. I have to pull the life preserver back and head back to shore.

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By presenting verifiably false numbers as fact? Nah, that's called drowning in your own BS.

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By presenting verifiably false numbers as fact? Nah, that's called drowning in your own BS

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You want to prove me wrong about details and all I'm stating is a fact.

You and the rest of the dead are not winning nor are you going to win this war.

Peace talka are soon.

You guys are already trying to say that Russia wanted to take all of Ukraine.

Russia took the people that were being bombed, that wanted to bee under Russian rule (not the CIA installed clowns in Kiev), and that speak Russian, and their pathway to the sea.

That's it.

They aren't moving forward anymore and this isn't a split down the middle stalemate war anymore.

Your average Ukrainian soldier age is 43 years old.

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When the war began in February 2022, the average Ukrainian soldier was between 30 and 35 years old.

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Ukraine is battling mounting manpower problems more than 20 months into the war. 

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There will be peace talks and it will be under Russia's terms. When Time Magazine tells you it's over... it's over.

End of story.

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