re: Latest Updates: Russia-Ukraine Conflict

quote:

---

Ukrainians are deeply reforming their country and preparing for accession,
even as they are fighting an existential war.

Today the Commission recommends that the Council opens accession negotiations with Ukraine.

---

quote:

---

I'll bet Japan has all the components squirreled away that can be assembled in a matter of hours. Maybe minutes.

---

quote:

---

?? G7 countries will help Ukraine get back on its feet, Antony Blinken said during a ministerial meeting in Tokyo.

“ To put Ukraine on a strong footing next year, we must help Ukraine do four things at once ,” said the US Secretary of State.

?? it is necessary to provide Ukraine with the opportunities to continue its struggle and reclaim its territory;

?? Help her create a world-class Armed Forces;

?? kickstart economic recovery and growth;

??accelerate the reform process to speed up Ukraine’s path to the EU and attract investment.

---

quote:

---

#Germany is withdrawing its Patriot air defense systems from #Poland - DW

"The Bundeswehr's mission in southeastern Poland related to the missile threat on the border with Ukraine is coming to an end ten months after it began," the German Defense Ministry said.

As part of the mission, three Patriot air defense systems were deployed near the town of Zamosc near the Ukrainian border in mid-January.

---

quote:

---

The United States has no funds left for direct budget support to Kyiv. Without new allocations, humanitarian aid could come to a complete halt - USAID

"Without further allocations, the Ukrainian government will have to invoke extraordinary measures, such as issuing money and failing to pay critical employees' salaries, which could lead to hyperinflation and severely damage military efforts," said USAID spokesperson Erin McKee.

---

quote:

---

I guarantee you that the Saudis will have one the next week.

---

quote:

---

Ukrainian forces continued counteroffensive operations near Bakhmut and in western Zaporizhia Oblast on November 8. The Ukrainian General Staff reported that Ukrainian forces continued offensive operations in the Melitopol (western Zaporizhia Oblast) and Bakhmut directions

Select Russian milbloggers claimed that Russian commanders may be making operational and tactical decisions using maps of the battlefield in Ukraine that differ from tactical reality. A Russian milblogger claimed that the Russian General Staff uses battlefield maps that differ from tactical reality in response to another milblogger who questioned why Russian forces were not striking alleged large Ukrainian force concentrations close to the frontline.[6] The Russian milblogger claimed that Russian personnel on the front have access to the “real” map and that Russian commanders order Russian forces to conduct routine assaults to make gains that align the “real” map with the Russian General Staff’s map.

Russian President Vladimir Putin promoted 44 Russian military and internal affairs officers, including Eastern Grouping of Forces Commander Andrei Kuzmenko, to general officer rank on November 8.[11] Putin promoted Kuzmenko to the rank of colonel general following Kuzmenko’s meeting with Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu during Shoigu’s visit to the Eastern Grouping of Forces command post in the south Donetsk direction (Donetsk-Zaporizhia Oblast border area) on October 25.

Russian President Vladimir Putin will reportedly avoid centering his 2024 presidential campaign on the war in Ukraine and will rather focus on Russia’s alleged stability and criticisms of the West.[14] Russian opposition media outlet Meduza reported on November 8 that two sources close to the Russian Presidential Administration stated that the presidential campaign aims to paint Putin as a leader who made Russia an “island of calm.”[15] Meduza sources claimed that Putin’s ratings increase after speeches in which he criticizes the West and that Russian state propaganda will encourage this by increasingly publishing stories about “difficulties” in Western countries and the United States’ alleged inability to support Ukraine and Israel simultaneously. A Meduza source also reportedly stated that the campaign would only discuss the war in Ukraine if there were a “very serious [Russian] success” on the front instead of continued “positional warfare.” Putin is reportedly preparing to announce his campaign this month, and Russian sources have consistently indicated that the campaign will not prominently promote the war in Ukraine

Ukrainian partisans and military intelligence assassinated a prominent Luhansk People’s Republic (LNR) official accused of conducting war crimes in occupied Ukraine. Russian and occupation officials reported on November 8 that a car bomb killed LNR People’s Council member and the LNR Liberal Democratic Party (LDPR) Head Colonel Mikhail Filiponenko in occupied Luhansk City

---

quote:

---

Key Takeaways:

Ukrainian forces continued counteroffensive operations near Bakhmut and in western Zaporizhia Oblast on November 8.

Select Russian milbloggers claimed that Russian commanders may be making operational and tactical decisions using maps of the battlefield in Ukraine that differ from tactical reality.

Russian President Vladimir Putin promoted 44 Russian military and internal affairs officers, including Eastern Grouping of Forces Commander Andrei Kuzmenko, to general officer rank on November 8.

Russian President Vladimir Putin will reportedly avoid centering his 2024 presidential campaign on the war in Ukraine and will rather focus on Russia’s alleged stability and criticisms of the West.

Ukrainian partisans and military intelligence assassinated a prominent Luhansk People’s Republic (LNR) official accused of conducting war crimes in occupied Ukraine.

Russian forces conducted offensive operations along the Kupyansk-Svatove-Kreminna line, near Bakhmut, near Avdiivka, west and southwest of Donetsk City, in western Donetsk Oblast, in the Donetsk-Zaporizhia Oblast border area, and in western Zaporizhia Oblast on November 8 and advanced in some areas.

Russia is reportedly attempting to reacquire components for military equipment from states to which it previously sold the equipment, including Egypt, Pakistan, Brazil, and Belarus.

Russian occupation administrations continue to create new administrative bodies meant to further integrate occupied territories into Russian governance systems.

---

quote:

---

We have three main corruption scenarios: the first is when someone takes funds to appoint a company director, the second is when plant managers buy something at inflated prices, and the third is when managers rent out for 1000 UAH [approx. US$28 - ed.] something that can be rented out, let’s say, for UAH 10,000 [appox. US$275 - ed.].

Concerning appointments. We have restored and improved the competitive selection of candidates for heads of companies. Four representatives of foreign embassies were involved in the last competitive process.

How does this happen? Several dozen candidates come to us. Our personnel officers choose from them the 10 most professional and educated. Then they invite people to the table, around twenty of them: representatives from the Cabinet of Ministers, the Ministry of Economy, the Ministry of Strategic Industries, and foreign diplomats. The candidate comes in and they start asking questions.

The Independent Anti-Corruption Commission (NAKO) and StateWatch look into the candidates to ensure that they do not have suspicious firms or corruption risks. As a result, out of ten candidates, two are short-listed. And then during a personal interview, I choose the one who is more suitable.

Procurement. We monitor all the largest purchases at companies so that there is no such thing as a printer bought at the price of a jeep. We are actively running purchases through the Prozorro system, although this practice was suspended at the beginning of the full-scale invasion. For example, we jointly purchase electricity and gas for our companies. Thanks to this, it has already been possible to save almost UAH 50 million [approx. US$1,38 million – ed.]. We also conduct tenders for services and non-military goods.

And regarding abuses in the use of property. We have developed a policy that during the sale or lease of property, there should be an independent assessment that will determine the starting price. And then all these deals will be conducted through Prozorro Sale.

Everything that the NACP (the National Agency on Corruption Prevention), NAKO, and StateWatch have recommended to us has been taken into account in our strategy. Soon we will report how we are implementing and using all this. Perhaps someone will look for cracks. But our task is not only to look for cases where someone has stolen something but to make the system such that it is not possible to steal in principle.

---

quote:

---

Russia has sought to retrieve parts from defense systems it had exported to countries such as Pakistan, Egypt, Belarus and Brazil, as it tries to replenish the enormous stocks of weapons being expended for the war in Ukraine.

Last April, a delegation of Russian officials visiting Cairo asked Egyptian President Abdel Fattah Al Sisi to give back more than a hundred engines from Russian helicopters that Moscow needed for Ukraine, three people with knowledge of the incident said. Sisi agreed and deliveries of about 150 engines are likely to start next month, say the people.

An Egyptian government spokesman declined to comment.

Those talks were part of a larger Russian push to seek help from its longtime arms customers, who for decades bought Russian aircraft, missiles and air-defense systems, making Moscow the world’s second-largest arms exporter. Throughout the year, Russia held talks with officials from Pakistan, Belarus and Brazil to try to acquire engines for the Russian attack and transport helicopters its forces lost to Ukrainian defenses early in the war, one of those people and another former Russian intelligence officer said.

“Russia spent decades building its arms trade,” said a person with knowledge of the buybacks. “Now they’re going back in secret to their customers trying to buy back what they sold them.”

In other cases Russia has sacrificed part of its prized arms export business to the war effort, rerouting arms meant for India and Armenia to Russia’s front line, the two said.

The push to fill its arsenal through export requisitions and buybacks coincides with Russia ramping up its own production of ammunition, spare parts and weapons systems to support a conflict that will soon enter its third year and that is burning through enormous quantities of materiel. Russia’s war machine has likewise acquired more munitions from partners, including ammunition from North Korea.

Much of Moscow’s efforts to buy back Russian arms have come as the Kremlin pushed back against an offensive by Ukraine’s forces in the east and south of the country. With that offensive now slowing, Russia is seeking to retake the initiative on the battlefield, although it is unclear whether the new supplies will give Moscow the resources it needs to step up its attacks.

---

quote:

---

The Russian delegation touched down in Cairo soon after it emerged that Egypt was considering sending rockets to Russia. Cairo dropped that plan under pressure from the U.S., which then asked Egypt to instead supply weapons to Ukraine to help the country with a shortage of ammunition.

When the Russians arrived in Egypt soon after, they wanted to ensure ties between the two countries—which have for decades enjoyed warm relations—were still strong. For Moscow, Egypt was an important customer who since 2014 had signed several multibillion-dollar contracts for Russian helicopters, fighter planes and air-defense systems.

Egypt subsequently backed out of parts of those deals in March for fear of facing U.S. sanctions. Moreover, Cairo was unable to pay for the portion of the arms it did receive because of sanctions that restricted Russia’s use of the SWIFT payments clearing system.

When the deal to send missiles to Russia was scuttled, the Russians then asked Egypt to give back 150 engines for the Mi-8 and Mi-17 helicopters it had sold to Egypt—and to move quickly to avoid detection by the U.S., the three people said.

Russia said in exchange it would forgive Egypt’s arrears and continue to provide assistance for Egypt with crucial wheat supplies. If Egypt refused, Russia threatened to pull out its arms-industry advisers, said two people familiar with the situation. Russia maintains several hundred such advisers in Egypt.

When Sisi met Russian President Vladimir Putin at a summit for African nations that Russia held in St. Petersburg in July, the Egyptian president agreed. He also told Putin that he wouldn’t send the missiles he had promised to the Americans to Ukraine, two people with knowledge of the situation said.

Egyptian government spokesman Diaa Rashwan declined to comment on whether Egypt was giving the engines back. He said that Cairo wouldn’t compromise its own security given the various regional threats at its doorstep.

“Egypt, irrespective of the depth of its positive engagements with any country—including Russia—is not willing to give up its armed capabilities to another entity,” said Rashwan.

The three people, however, said Egypt is planning to start sending about 150 engines likely in December. It was unclear how many Egypt planned on sending back.

The episode captures a complicated history between Egypt, the U.S. and Russia. Egypt was a Cold War customer of Soviet arms, before turning to the U.S. in recent decades. Cairo, however, has maintained some arms trade ties with Russia. The U.S., which sees Egypt as a crucial partner in the Middle East, has acquiesced to some Egyptian deals with Russia but has threatened sanctions to stop others, said one of the people.

---

quote:

---

Russia’s need for weapons has also hit its exports, in some cases causing Moscow to fail to deliver on deals, particularly for arms systems for land forces. Russian arms exports likely reached only $8 billion last year, nearly half the 2021 level of $14.5 billion.

For instance, Armenia has received few, if any, shipments from Russia of ammunition for multiple-rocket launcher systems such as Grad and Uragan. As a result, Armenian forces were short of arms in September when Azerbaijan retook control of Nagorno-Karabakh, an Armenian enclave, from Armenian forces. Russia has also canceled some exports to India.

“In some cases the Defense Ministry requisitioned the arms systems before they even left the factories,” the person said.

Neither the Kremlin nor Russia’s state-owned military export firm JSC Rosoboronexport responded to questions.

---

quote:

---

Russia has also asked Pakistan for at least four Mi-35M engines from helicopters that it previously sold it. Pakistan’s Foreign Ministry denied it had been approached by Moscow.

Moscow has asked Brazil to buy back 12 engines from Mi-35M military-helicopter engines that Brasília decommissioned last year. A Brazilian Foreign Ministry official said the country refused, in line with its policy against sending arms to either side in the conflict.

Belarus, one of Russia’s staunchest allies, sold six Mi-26 heavy-transport helicopter engines back to Moscow, the person said. Belarus’ presidential office didn’t respond to a request for comment, though two of the people interviewed for this article said Belarus had agreed.

---