re: Latest Updates: Russia-Ukraine Conflict

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And their ground forces will have few if any legacy weapon systems left. What they have will either be new, or modernized.

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Boomers have been the unluckiest of generations

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Russian forces are conducting tactical counterattacks in the Robotyne area as part of their elastic defense against ongoing Ukrainian offensive operations in western Zaporizhia Oblast. The situation south of Robotyne is fluid as some tactically significant field fortifications have changed hands several times. Geolocated footage posted on September 30 shows Ukrainian forces striking Russian troops trying to enter a trench system about 1km southwest of Robotyne near the T0408 Robotyne—Tokmak road.[1] Footage posted on September 13 shows that Ukrainian forces had previously occupied segments of this trench and thus appear to have lost it to Russian counterattacks between September 13 and 30

A Ukrainian soldier analyzed the footage of the area and noted that the aforementioned Russian-controlled trench is a strongpoint in an interconnected system of trenches, firing systems, and dugouts that lie between Robotyne and Novoprokopivka.[3] The Ukrainian soldier noted that the trenches are connected by underground tunnel-like structures and that Russian forces are prioritizing the defense of these positions, which have tactical significance in the area between Robotyne and Novoprokopivka...The reported continued presence of Russian forces in the western and central trenches suggests that Russian forces have been conducting successful limited tactical counterattacks south of Robotyne and that the tactical situation in this area is complex and dynamic.

The Russian information space continues to falsely portray Western aid to Ukraine as escalatory in order to discourage continued Western support for Ukraine. Newly appointed United Kingdom Defense Secretary Grant Shapps stated in an interview with the Telegraph published on September 30 that he held talks with unspecified (likely UK) “Army leaders” about moving “more training and production” of military equipment into Ukraine.[6] UK Prime Minister Rishi Sunak walked back Shapps’ statement on October 1 and stated that the UK has no immediate plans to deploy military instructors to Ukraine.[7] Sunak clarified that it may be possible for the UK to conduct some training in the future in Ukraine but stated that the UK would not send British soldiers to fight in the ”current conflict.”[8] Russian Security Council Deputy Chairperson Dmitry Medvedev, a notably nationalistic and extreme voice in the Russian government, called Shapps’ since-clarified statement a “push” toward a ”third world war.”[9] Medvedev regularly voices alarmist rhetoric and continues to portray any Western aid to Ukraine as escalatory in an attempt to undermine Western military aid to Ukraine.[10] His comments are part of a long-running Russian information operation along these lines and do not mark any sort of inflection.

Several Russian milbloggers also expressed baseless paranoia in response to UK officials’ statements by claiming with no evidence at all that the UK intends to help train Ukrainian forces for future operations in Crimea.[11] The milbloggers’ claims are likely also a part of a Russian information operation intended to portray Western military aid and continued support for Ukraine as escalatory. Russian milbloggers have noted broad indicators such as Ukrainian strikes on military targets in Crimea and on Russian Black Sea Fleet (BSF) assets to suggest that western forces are currently aiding Ukrainian forces in preparations to launch military operations in Crimea.[12] Ukrainian strikes against Crimea and BSF assets are more likely part of Ukraine’s interdiction campaign assisting Ukrainian counteroffensive operations in western Zaporizhia Oblast.[13]

The status of the Wagner Group remains unclear amid reported negotiations about the Wagner Group’s future cooperation with the Russian government. The Wagner Group’s main combat elements are split across several countries, including Belarus, the Central African Republic, Libya, and Mali, and there is no clear unified leader for the Wagner Group.[14] Russian President Vladimir Putin publicly embraced former Wagner Group commander and current Ministry of Defense (MoD) employee Andrey Troshev on September 29 and stated that he and Troshev discussed how Troshev would be involved in the formation of new volunteer detachments that perform combat missions primarily in Ukraine.
Some Wagner group elements reacted negatively to Putin’s embrace of Troshev and have now put forward an alternative leader. A prominent Wagner-affiliated Telegram channel announced on October 1 that Yevgeny Prigozhin’s 25-year-old son Pavel Prigozhin has taken over “command” of the Wagner Group, and that Pavel Prigozhin is negotiating with Rosgvardia about having the Wagner Group rejoin combat operations in Ukraine

Russian forces conducted another series of drone strikes against Ukraine on the night of September 30 to October 1. The Ukrainian General Staff reported on October 1 that Ukrainian air defenses downed 16 of 30 Shahed 131/136 drones that Russian forces launched

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Key Takeaways:

Russian forces are conducting tactical counterattacks in the Robotyne area as part of their elastic defense against ongoing Ukrainian offensive operations in western Zaporizhia Oblast. The situation south of Robotyne is fluid as some tactically significant field fortifications have changed hands several times.

The Russian information space continues to falsely portray Western aid to Ukraine as escalatory in order to discourage continued Western support for Ukraine.

The status of the Wagner Group remains unclear amid reported negotiations about the Wagner Group’s future cooperation with the Russian government.

ISW will revise its assessment about the prospects for the Wagner Group to reemerge an as effective military organization if the Wagner Group successfully reconstitutes as a large, unitary organization under Rosgvardia, the Russian MoD, or a similar organization.

Russian forces conducted another series of drone strikes against Ukraine on the night of September 30 to October 1.

Russian forces continued offensive operations along the Kupyansk-Lyman line, near Bakhmut, along the Avdiivka-Donetsk City line, in the Donetsk-Zaporizhia Oblast border area, and in western Zaporizhia Oblast and marginally advanced in western Zaporizhia Oblast.

The Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD) officially announced the beginning of its regular fall 2023 conscription cycle on October 1.

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?? Moscow authorities published the addresses of secret facilities of Russian security agencies

Investigators from the "Dossier" center found on the website of the Moscow City Hall a document with the title "List of consumers of electric power (capacity), the restriction of the regime of electric power consumption of which may lead to economic, environmental and social consequences". It is there that the addresses of restricted facilities are listed.

The list of special Moscow electricity consumers approved by Sergei Sobyanin includes addresses where employees of secret agencies are registered. Among them is building 91 on Profsoyuznaya Street. The document also lists specific apartments, presumably belonging to intelligence officers.

The largest concentration of secret facilities is located in the Serebryany Bor, a specially protected natural area in the area of Moscow. There are military unit facilities belonging to the Foreign Intelligence Service, as well as plots intended for "defense and security" and "operation of a service dacha."

The building in Stoleshnikov Pereulok, where the famous Jean-Jacques café is located, turned out to be somehow connected with the Federal Protective Service. In the border region of Bryansk, officials even noted a temporary mobile FSB station. And in St. Petersburg, the law enforcement agencies have several dachas in the most elite neighborhoods of the city.

Such information is a state secret, and for the disclosure of addresses under Article 283 of the Criminal Code threatens up to seven years in prison.

The file was placed in the section "Special Group" on the site of the mayor's office, now it is no longer available.

The investigators also found similar files on the websites of the administrations of St. Petersburg, the Leningrad region, the frontline Belgorod and Bryansk regions, the Primorsky Krai, Kamchatka, Chechnya and North Ossetia.

Also, the lists include addresses belonging to the Ministry of Defense and captions to them: "ammunition depot", "refueling point" and "storage facility". According to the investigators, the addresses of these facilities may already be known to the Ukrainian security services and could be used as potential targets for strikes.

Therefore, the journalists created a map in which they indicated all possible potential targets for strikes, so that ordinary residents could understand the risks of living near such places.

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I'll vote in anything that will replace people like you. There's no point to you.

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Yet, given all the advantages that Russia enjoys, they remain in a quagmire with with shitty little Ukraine. Putin remains a master strategist, huh?

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Talk about desperate whataboutism.

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It’s a stalemate right now even though we read right here that Russia is gaining strength!!! They are prospering!

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