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Message
re: Latest Updates: Russia-Ukraine Conflict
Posted on 9/18/23 at 6:27 am to ticklechain
Posted on 9/18/23 at 6:27 am to ticklechain
British Defence Intelligence
INTELLIGENCE UPDATE
UPDATE ON UKRAINE 18 September 2023
Over the last two weeks, Russia has likely further reinforced the hard-pressed 58thCombined Arms Army with additional VDV airborne units on the Orikhiv axis in Zaporizhzhia Oblast.
A total of at least five VDV regiments drawn from the 7th and 76th divisions are likely now concentrated within several kilometres of the frontline village of Robotyne. At full strength, such a force should constitute around 10,000 elite paratroopers. However, almost all units are highly likely dramatically under strength.
The current situation is likely to be seen as highly unsatisfactory by the VDV hierarchy. Throughout the war Russian commanders have attempted to regenerate the airborne forces as a highly mobile, striking force for offensive operations. Once again, they are being used as line infantry to augment over-stretched ground forces.
INTELLIGENCE UPDATE
UPDATE ON UKRAINE 18 September 2023
Over the last two weeks, Russia has likely further reinforced the hard-pressed 58thCombined Arms Army with additional VDV airborne units on the Orikhiv axis in Zaporizhzhia Oblast.
A total of at least five VDV regiments drawn from the 7th and 76th divisions are likely now concentrated within several kilometres of the frontline village of Robotyne. At full strength, such a force should constitute around 10,000 elite paratroopers. However, almost all units are highly likely dramatically under strength.
The current situation is likely to be seen as highly unsatisfactory by the VDV hierarchy. Throughout the war Russian commanders have attempted to regenerate the airborne forces as a highly mobile, striking force for offensive operations. Once again, they are being used as line infantry to augment over-stretched ground forces.
2
Posted on 9/18/23 at 6:50 am to cypher
quote:
#China has stopped supplying drones to the #Russian Federation
It is prohibited to import drones weighing 4 kg or more or with a maximum takeoff weight of 7 kg with a flight duration of more than 30 minutes from China to Russia from September 1. Also under the ban are UAVs capable of "carrying cargo with the function of dropping or with the possibility of securing such a device."
In addition, China has restricted the supply of a number of important drone components.
LINK
quote:
South Korea to send two K600 “Rhino” mine-clearance vehicles to Ukraine, — The Chosun Ilbo.
It is noted that this vehicle is the most combat equipment that South Korea has so far sent to Ukraine.
LINK
quote:
#Ukraine will sue #Poland, #Hungary and #Slovakia because they do not want to lift the ban on imports of Ukrainian grain, Ukrainian Deputy Economics Minister Taras Kachka has said in an interview with Politico
This was stated by Ukrainian Deputy Economics Minister and Ukrainian Trade Representative Taras Kachka in an interview with Politico.
He noted that Ukraine was preparing its response to the countries' decision.
LINK
Posted on 9/18/23 at 6:58 am to StormyMcMan
Posted on 9/18/23 at 7:00 am to cypher
Ukrainska Pravda in English
@pravda_eng
CIT investigative journalists published photos of the damaged Russian "Rostov-on-Don" submarine, which was attacked by the Armed Forces of Ukraine last week, when it was at the ship repair plant in Sevastopol
@pravda_eng
CIT investigative journalists published photos of the damaged Russian "Rostov-on-Don" submarine, which was attacked by the Armed Forces of Ukraine last week, when it was at the ship repair plant in Sevastopol
Posted on 9/18/23 at 7:15 am to Snipe
quote:
This is a clear picture of what Russia vs. Ukraine is.
MacGregor is laughable. I have been watching interviews of him almost weekly for 18+ months. He is very consistent at being wrong.
Posted on 9/18/23 at 7:59 am to GOP_Tiger
The problem with Russia as fas as Ukraine goes is that as a whole, even democratic Russians perceive Ukraine to be part of Russia. Especially the part east of the Dnieper. As a matter of fact, before 2014 they for the most part identified as Russian. It’s a bit more complicated than ousting Putin.
Posted on 9/18/23 at 8:07 am to BeepNode
quote:
Why?
Everyone keeps trying to assign ideological reasons for this war when there are none. This war is over the same thing that virtually all wars are about.....RESOURCES. Russia is a massive country with massive reserves of almost every raw natural resource. Oil, gas, iron ore, etc. Their problem is that they don't have enough men to defend their borders and their population is shrinking due to low birth rates. There are 9 geographical passageways into Russia that aren't mountains or deserts. The White Sea, Baltic coast, Northern European Plain (Polish Gap), Bessarabian Gap, Black Sea (Crimea), both coastal strips of the Caucasus, the Central Asian Corridor, and the Dzungarian Gate ALL have to be secured. They already have the White Sea and Black Sea. They're somewhat OK on the Caucasus because of their agitation and support of separatist movements in Georgia and their stationing of some troops there. They have a small contingent in Transnistria (a Russian supported separatist province of Moldova) on the south end of the Carpathian Mountains, but they need far more to actually secure it. Historically, invasions into and from Russia have occurred through all of these gaps. Right now the most pressing is the Polish Gap, which just happens to be on the OTHER side of Ukraine. Simply having forces in Ukraine does them no good. They HAVE to press the fight into Poland to secure it. The short version is that they're surrounded on all sides by countries who want their resources (Western Europe, Turkey, China, and Japan), but they lack the manpower to defend it all without securing those gaps. As their population dwindles, expect Germany to get uppity to their west. Turkey is always a threat from their south (look up the Russo-Ottoman Wars for context). China had Outer Mancharia stolen from them at gunpoint by Russia in 1853 because they were tied up with the British and French in the Opium Wars and couldn't open another front, and Russia took Sakhalin Island from Japan. As Russia's population and military abilities decline, all of these hostile neighbors are going to try to take back what they believe is rightfully theirs or secure the resources necessary to keep their industries and societies functioning.
This post was edited on 9/18/23 at 8:09 am
Posted on 9/18/23 at 8:12 am to Tantal
quote:
Right now the most pressing is the Polish Gap, which just happens to be on the OTHER side of Ukraine. Simply having forces in Ukraine does them no good. They HAVE to press the fight into Poland to secure it. The short version is that they're surrounded on all sides by countries who want their resources
Poland has no interest in invading Russia.
And you have things partly correct in that for Russia it is about resources. They want the ones Ukraine has.
Posted on 9/18/23 at 8:12 am to omegaman66
quote:
Who on earth today are the nice guys?
There are no nice guys, just varying degrees of assholes. Unfortunately, Russia is in the God-tier of assholes.
Posted on 9/18/23 at 8:14 am to GOP_Tiger
quote:
If Putin were to die, Russia's new leader (whoever that would be) would need to secure power. The administrative and military needs to accomplish that would be significant, and Russia would really be unable to continue the war in current form.
Of all potential successors to Putin, NONE are in disagreement with this war.
Posted on 9/18/23 at 8:45 am to Tantal
quote:
Of all potential successors to Putin, NONE are in disagreement with this war.
That is a true statement but there does exist the possibility of those wanting to break away and need internally for the military resources. Remember the Chechen Wars?
Posted on 9/18/23 at 8:54 am to CitizenK
Mykhailo Fedorov
@FedorovMykhailo
Army of Drones continues to break new records. Last week, defenders focused on cannons. Occupiers actively use them to stop counteroffensive. UAV strike units solved this problem by destroying 56 cannons, 41 tanks, 34 armored combat vehicles. Proud & looking forward for news.
Update for comparison with overall numbers from Ukrinform for the week.
Ukraine’s Defense Forces eliminate about 3,730 Russian invaders in past week
18.09.2023 22:12
Between September 11, 2023 and September 18, 2023, Ukraine’s Defense Forces eliminated about 3,730 Russian occupiers.
The relevant statement was made by Military Media Center on Telegram, an Ukrinform correspondent reports.
In addition, over the past week, the enemy has lost 73 tanks, 67 armored fighting vehicles, 188 artillery systems, and seven missiles.
@FedorovMykhailo
Army of Drones continues to break new records. Last week, defenders focused on cannons. Occupiers actively use them to stop counteroffensive. UAV strike units solved this problem by destroying 56 cannons, 41 tanks, 34 armored combat vehicles. Proud & looking forward for news.
Update for comparison with overall numbers from Ukrinform for the week.
Ukraine’s Defense Forces eliminate about 3,730 Russian invaders in past week
18.09.2023 22:12
Between September 11, 2023 and September 18, 2023, Ukraine’s Defense Forces eliminated about 3,730 Russian occupiers.
The relevant statement was made by Military Media Center on Telegram, an Ukrinform correspondent reports.
In addition, over the past week, the enemy has lost 73 tanks, 67 armored fighting vehicles, 188 artillery systems, and seven missiles.
This post was edited on 9/18/23 at 5:19 pm
Posted on 9/18/23 at 8:59 am to notiger1997
quote:
And you have things partly correct in that for Russia it is about resources. They want the ones Ukraine has.
Ukraine doesn't really have that much other than some decent agricultural land. Young Russian men are in short supply due to their dwindling demography, so I doubt that they would sacrifice hundreds of thousands of them for a little wheat, which they already have plenty of. This whole exercise is about securing the geographic access points into their land, so they can't just stop with Ukraine.
Posted on 9/18/23 at 9:06 am to Tantal
The Eastern Oblasts are rich in oil and mineral deposits. Prior to 2014 invasion, Western Companies were investing in the region.
quote:
The country has abundant reserves of coal, iron ore, natural gas, manganese, salt, oil, graphite, sulfur, kaolin, titanium, nickel, magnesium, timber, and mercury.
quote:
Before Russia invaded Ukraine in February 2022, Ukraine, home to approximately 500,000 tons of high-quality lithium and vast quantities of rare earth elements,
This post was edited on 9/18/23 at 9:10 am
Posted on 9/18/23 at 9:37 am to tigeraddict
quote:
The Eastern Oblasts are rich in oil and mineral deposits. Prior to 2014 invasion, Western Companies were investing in the region.
But how do those compare to what Russia already has? It isn't as if Russia is short on resources. Especially not short enough to expend so many young men when they're in sharp demographic decline just to obtain more. Right now Russia is more constrained by their ability to extract their own materials and global demand than they are of their own supplies. It isn't as if Russia had shortages.
Posted on 9/18/23 at 9:41 am to Tantal
quote:
Of all potential successors to Putin, NONE are in disagreement with this war.
I can't think of any instance throughout history where a nation in the middle of a war loses its dictator to death and continues its conflicts with no impacts. In every case I can remember the consequences range from very negative to catastrophic/civil war.
Posted on 9/18/23 at 9:42 am to omegaman66
quote:
Who on earth today are the nice guys?
Whichever political party you believe in, of course.
This post was edited on 9/18/23 at 9:43 am
Posted on 9/18/23 at 9:54 am to Tantal
quote:
There are no nice guys, just varying degrees of assholes. Unfortunately, Russia is in the God-tier of assholes.
Truth
ETA: The quote (I don't recall who originally said this..) President LBJ is an SOB... but at least he is our SOB...
This post was edited on 9/18/23 at 9:57 am
Posted on 9/18/23 at 10:29 am to cypher
Shoot, just slap some flex-seal tape on that baby and she'll be good to go.
This post was edited on 9/18/23 at 10:30 am
Posted on 9/18/23 at 10:30 am to ticklechain
quote:
Why did he can all of them?
The main reason that Reznikov lost his job and Umerov replaced his was the corruption in the MoD.
Umerov is cleaning house and appointing deputies who haven't presided over a culture of corruption.
It was really essential. Zelensky has done a lot to counter corruption, but there was still a poll recently that indicates that some 75% of the Ukrainian public still holds him responsible for not fixing more of the corruption.
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