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Message
re: Latest Updates: Russia-Ukraine Conflict
Posted on 9/18/23 at 3:51 pm to GOP_Tiger
Posted on 9/18/23 at 3:51 pm to GOP_Tiger
quote:
The main reason that Reznikov lost his job and Umerov replaced his was the corruption in the MoD.
Zelensky has also said in several interviews with Ukrainian sources that Reznikov was too friendly with western advisors. He listened to western advisors and not his generals on the ground that were telling him that Ukraine was not ready for the counter offensive.
1
Posted on 9/18/23 at 5:53 pm to WeeWee
quote:
He listened to western advisors and not his generals on the ground that were telling him that Ukraine was not ready for the counter offensive.
You said this a few days ago, and I didn't have time to respond, but I think that this is 100% incorrect.
Ukraine delayed the offensive because the general theory was that the success of the offensive would be determined by a large, combined arms assault. Many NATO partners were slow in sending the heavy armor that would determine the outcome of that fight, and so Ukraine waited to get as many tanks, SPGs, IFW, etc. as they could put together.
In retrospect, though, the large combined arms assault was never going to work, and that's why Ukraine is basically still not doing them now -- they are just too costly.
To Ukraine's credit, after the 47th's massive failure in the first few days of the offensive, Ukraine completely switched strategy to a process of attrition, and that has been very successful.
But this gradual, attritional offensive didn't need to wait for a few extra Leopards to get delivered. More importantly, it didn't need to wait another couple of months of Russia laying even more mines. There's no reason that Ukraine couldn't have started with its current strategy mid-April. Had they done so, they would have attritted the Russian army with a longer time of good weather to exploit.
Are you really of the opinion that, if the 47th had just had another month to train, they'd have blasted through the Russian lines? I honestly do not understand how that theory works.
This post was edited on 9/18/23 at 5:54 pm
Posted on 9/18/23 at 6:05 pm to GOP_Tiger
quote:
You said this a few days ago, and I didn't have time to respond, but I think that this is 100% incorrect.
No you are 100% incorrect.
quote:
Ukraine delayed the offensive because the general theory was that the success of the offensive would be determined by a large, combined arms assault. Many NATO partners were slow in sending the heavy armor that would determine the outcome of that fight, and so Ukraine waited to get as many tanks, SPGs, IFW, etc. as they could put together.
In retrospect, though, the large combined arms assault was never going to work, and that's why Ukraine is basically still not doing them now -- they are just too costly.
To Ukraine's credit, after the 47th's massive failure in the first few days of the offensive, Ukraine completely switched strategy to a process of attrition, and that has been very successful.
Per my sauces, the Ukrainian generals were saying that a western style attack wasn't going to work because they did not have air supremacy and they had not finished training their engineers and had not received 1 single piece of the western mine clearing equipment. Reznikov did not tell Zelensky any of this but he did tell Zelensky about the Pentagon's threat to reassess the aid that we gave Ukraine. Therefore it was easy for Zelensky to give the order for the counter attack when the west demanded it for their own political purposes because he did not know his forces were not ready.
quote:
Are you really of the opinion that, if the 47th had just had another month to train, they'd have blasted through the Russian lines? I honestly do not understand how that theory works.
Are you unaware that in June when the counteroffensive began roughly half the combat engineers needed to clear the minefields were still in training and hardly any of the western mine clearing equipment had reached the front? If Ukraine had waited until it had received and deployed that mine clearing equipment and the other thousands of engineers it might could have blasted a hole through the minefields.
ETA: Correction 6 mine clearing vehicles had arrived.
This post was edited on 9/18/23 at 6:31 pm
Posted on 9/18/23 at 6:11 pm to WeeWee
quote:
Per my sauces, the Ukrainian generals were saying that a western style attack wasn't going to work because they did not have air supremacy and they had not finished training their engineers and had not received 1 single piece of the western mine clearing equipment
Ukraine lost two of the Finnish-provided Leopard 2A6M mine-clearing tanks on the first day of the offensive. Your sauces are wrong.
Posted on 9/18/23 at 6:18 pm to GOP_Tiger
Both Ukrainian and NATO planners underestimated the depth and density of the minefields that Russia had established along the front.
In the runup to the offensive, Ukraine wasn't even asking for more mine-clearing equipment; they were asking for more tanks.
In the runup to the offensive, Ukraine wasn't even asking for more mine-clearing equipment; they were asking for more tanks.
Posted on 9/18/23 at 6:24 pm to GOP_Tiger
quote:
Ukraine lost two of the Finnish-provided Leopard 2A6M mine-clearing tanks on the first day of the offensive. Your sauces are wrong.
quote:LINK
Even the best-equipped, best-trained armies expect to lose as much as half of the assault force during a successful breach. As it happens, the Ukrainian 47th Assault Brigade in just a week of hard fighting has abandoned three of its six best breaching vehicles—its Finnish-made Leopard 2Rs. Other confirmed Ukrainian losses include a Soviet-style IMR-2 engineering vehicle and an ex-German Bergepanzer.
It could be that my sauce(s) were wrong or they were being sarcastic because they did not consider having 6 western mine clearing tanks much help. It could also be my misunderstanding them when speaking with them. However, the facts remain that the counteroffensive was not delayed and if anything it was rushed. Do you not see that or do you really think that they could have made a break through in late April with just 6 western mine clearing tanks if they had launched the attack then?
This post was edited on 9/18/23 at 6:30 pm
Posted on 9/18/23 at 6:27 pm to GOP_Tiger
quote:
Both Ukrainian and NATO planners underestimated the depth and density of the minefields that Russia had established along the front.
This is true.
quote:
In the runup to the offensive, Ukraine wasn't even asking for more mine-clearing equipment; they were asking for more tanks.
That is because in the runup to the offensive the Ukrainians were planning on launching the offensive in August or September. When more western aid would have arrived and more importantly several hundred more engineers would have finished mine clearing school.
Posted on 9/18/23 at 10:51 pm to WeeWee
ISW Update
quote:
Ukraine’s liberation of Klishchiivka and Andriivka south of Bakhmut may have degraded the Russian defense in the area south of Bakhmut and could have rendered combat ineffective as many as three Russian brigades according to Ukrainian military officials. Ukrainian Ground Forces Commander Colonel General Oleksandr Syrskyi stated on September 18 that Klishchiivka (7km southwest of Bakhmut) and Andriivka (10km southwest of Bakhmut) were important elements of the Russian Bakhmut-Horlivka defensive line that Ukrainian forces “breached.”
The Ukrainian liberation of two villages that Russian forces were fighting hard to hold could correspond with the severe degradation of the Russian units defending them, as Ukrainian advances in western Zaporizhia Oblast appear to correspond with the significant degradation of defending Russian units and formations in that sector of the front. Russian forces defending in western Zaporizhia Oblast since the start of the counteroffensive have done so largely without operational-level unit rotations and have likely suffered compounding losses.[3] Elements of the Russian 42nd Motorized Rifle Division’s 71st, 70th, and 291st Motorized Rifle Regiments (58th Combined Arms Army, Southern Military District)routinely repelled Ukrainian assaults and engaged in various “combat clashes,“ including limited engagements and some counterattacks, during the first phase of the counteroffensive from June to August 2023
Ukrainian counteroffensive operations may have resulted in the particularly severe degradation of critical elements of the Russian elastic defense in western Zaporizhia Oblast. Elements of the Russian 22nd and 45th Separate Spetsnaz Brigades appeared to be responsible for counterattacking against significant Ukrainian advances in the Robotyne area during the earlier phases of the counteroffensive and likely suffered heavy losses in these operations.[10] Russian reporting and footage of the Robotyne area in recent weeks has largely omitted mention of these Spetsnaz brigades, suggesting that this degradation may have severely impacted their ability to continue counterattacking. A prominent milblogger claimed that elements of the 45th Spetsnaz Brigade were still operating near the frontline as of September 12, however.[11] Elements of the Russian 7th Guards Mountain Airborne (VDV) Division that laterally deployed to the Robotyne area in mid-August during the Ukrainian breakthrough now appear to be responsible for conducting counterattacks against the most forward advances of the Ukrainian breach.[12] Russian sources routinely claim that VDV elements, which may include elements of the 76th Guards VDV Division that also laterally redeployed to the area, repel Ukrainian assaults and conduct counterattacks near Robotyne[13] The degradation of the elements of the 22nd and 45th Separate Spetsnaz Brigades initially responsible for counterattacking in the Robotyne area likely prompted the Russian command to laterally redeploy these elements of the 7th and 76th VDV Divisions to assume responsibility for counterattacking. The Russian elastic defense requires one echelon of Russian forces to slow a Ukrainian tactical advance while a second echelon of forces rolls back that advance through counterattacking. Counterattacking requires significant morale and relatively high combat capabilities, and the Russian military appears to rely on relatively elite VDV units and formations for this undertaking, possibly at the expense of heavily degrading these forces.[14]
ISW has not directly observed the level of degradation among the Russian units referenced above and it is possible that some have suffered heavier losses than others. It is also possible that the Russians have used the arrival of elements of the 76th and 7th VDV Divisions to conduct belated unit rotations of their tired frontline units. The current battlefield geometry between the Ukrainian advance and current Russian defensive positions may also be contributing to the apparent absence of these likely degraded units from combat engagements, as the gap between Ukrainian advances and Russian defensive positions may result in less direct combat engagements. Ukrainian forces may engage these units in more direct combat as they further advance into and past the current Russian defensive layer. It is thus too soon to assess with high confidence that the initial defenders in this sector have been rendered combat ineffective, but the evidence currently available points in that direction.
Recent Ukrainian advances south of Bakhmut may correspond with the similar degradation of defending Russian units in the area. Syrskyi stated that Ukrainian forces completely destroyed the combat capabilities of elements of the 72nd Motorized Rifle Brigade (3rd Army Corps), the 31st Guards VDV Brigade, and the 83rd Guards VDV Brigade during the liberation of Andriivka and Klishchiivka.[15] Russian “Vostok” Battalion commander Alexander Khodakovsky’s claim that the 31st VDV Brigade commander has been killed supports this statement.
Russian forces conducted a series of Shahed-131/136 drone and cruise missile strikes on coastal and rear areas of Ukraine on the night of September 17-18. Ukrainian officials reported that Russian forces launched 24 Shahed drones from Krasnodar Krai and occupied Crimea and 17 Kh-101/555/55 air-launched cruise missiles from Tu-95MS strategic bombers that took off from Volgograd Oblast.[20] Ukrainian officials reported that Ukrainian forces shot down 18 drones and all 17 missiles.
An organization with alleged ties to Russian First Deputy Presidential Chief of Staff Sergey Kiriyenko is reportedly responsible for disseminating pro-war propaganda and false information about Ukraine to prominent figures in the Russian information space. Russian opposition news outlets Meduza, Vazhnye Istorii, and the Bell reported on September 13 that the non-profit organization “Dialog” created multiple popular Telegram channels to increase pro-Russian reporting on the war in Ukraine at the start of Russia’s full-scale invasion and has subsequently been distributing false information about the war in Ukraine to prominent figures in the Russian information space, including Kremlin propagandist Vladimir Solovyov, prominent milbloggers, and popular news aggregators.
Russian Minister of Foreign Affairs Sergey Lavrov met with Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi in Moscow on September 18. Lavrov stated in his opening remarks that the world is undergoing “tectonic shifts” and reiterated boilerplate rhetoric on the importance and previous successes of Russian-Chinese cooperation.[30]
Imprisoned ardent nationalist and former Russian officer Igor Girkin issued a direct criticism of Russian President Vladimir Putin to rally supporters to his cause. Girkin, via his lawyer Alexander Molokhov, posted a statement on September 18 dated September 15 that justifies Girkin’s opposition to Putin
Posted on 9/18/23 at 10:51 pm to StormyMcMan
quote:
Key Takeaways:
Ukraine’s liberation of Klishchiivka and Andriivka south of Bakhmut may have degraded the Russian defense in the area south of Bakhmut and could have rendered combat ineffective as many as three Russian brigades according to Ukrainian military officials.
Ukrainian counteroffensive operations may have resulted in the particularly severe degradation of critical elements of the Russian elastic defense in western Zaporizhia Oblast.
Recent Ukrainian advances south of Bakhmut may correspond with the similar degradation of defending Russian units in the area.
Russian forces conducted a series of Shahed-131/136 drone and cruise missile strikes on coastal and rear areas of Ukraine on the night of September 17-18.
An organization with alleged ties to Russian First Deputy Presidential Chief of Staff Sergey Kiriyenko is reportedly responsible for disseminating pro-war propaganda and false information about Ukraine to prominent figures in the Russian information space.
Russian forces conducted offensive operations along the Kupyansk-Svatove-Kreminna line, near Bakhmut, along the Avdiivka-Donetsk City line, in the Donetsk-Zaporizhia Oblast border area, and in western Zaporizhia and advanced in some areas on September 18.
Ukrainian forces conducted offensive operations in at least two sectors of the front and advanced in western Zaporizhia on September 18.
Some Russian sources claimed that former Wagner Group personnel are working closely with Rosgvardia (Russian National Guard) in order to return fighting in Ukraine.
Posted on 9/19/23 at 3:01 am to StormyMcMan
British Defence Intelligence
INTELLIGENCE UPDATE
UPDATE ON UKRAINE 19 September 2023
Through the first half of September 2023, heavy fighting has continued around the islands in the lower Dnipro in Kherson Oblast, which currently marks the front line.
Both sides have launched raids with teams in small boats against the islands and against the opposite riverbanks. There is a realistic possibility that Russian operations in the area have been energised since the sector came under the responsibility of the newly created 40th Army Corps.
The number of forces involved are relatively small compared to other fronts; however, both sides see the area as strategically important. It also provides the opportunity to draw their adversary's units away from the intense combat in Zaporizhzhia and Donetsk oblasts.
INTELLIGENCE UPDATE
UPDATE ON UKRAINE 19 September 2023
Through the first half of September 2023, heavy fighting has continued around the islands in the lower Dnipro in Kherson Oblast, which currently marks the front line.
Both sides have launched raids with teams in small boats against the islands and against the opposite riverbanks. There is a realistic possibility that Russian operations in the area have been energised since the sector came under the responsibility of the newly created 40th Army Corps.
The number of forces involved are relatively small compared to other fronts; however, both sides see the area as strategically important. It also provides the opportunity to draw their adversary's units away from the intense combat in Zaporizhzhia and Donetsk oblasts.
Posted on 9/19/23 at 8:31 am to GOP_Tiger
On September 15 there were 16 Russian combat ships in the Black Sea. The current numbers from UKrinform...
Russia keeps four ships in Black and Azov Seas
19.09.2023 10:40
This was reported by the Ukrainian Navy Command on Telegram, Ukrinform reported.
According to the command, as of 8:00 a.m., there are four enemy ships on combat duty in the Black Sea, four enemy ships in the Sea of Azov, and one enemy ship in the Mediterranean.
Also, from The Kyiv Independent...
Minister: First ship with Ukrainian grain leaves Black Sea port through temporary corridor
September 19, 2023 3:09 PM
The Palau-flagged Resilient Africa bulk carrier loaded with 3,000 metric tons of wheat has left the Black Sea port of Chornomorsk and is moving towards the Bosphorus, Infrastructure Minister Oleksandr Kubrakov reported on Sept. 19.
Resilient Africa and another cargo vessel, Aroyat, have become the first civilian ships that agreed to enter Ukrainian ports after Russia withdrew from the Black Sea Grain Initiative in July. They are expected to deliver 20,000 tons of grain to African and Asian countries.
Aroyat is still docked in the Chornomorsk port while loaded with Ukrainian wheat for Egypt, Kubrakov said on Facebook.
According to the official, the vessels are flying under the flag of the island nation of Palau, and their crews consist of Turkish, Azerbaijani, Egyptian, and Ukrainian citizens.
Russia keeps four ships in Black and Azov Seas
19.09.2023 10:40
This was reported by the Ukrainian Navy Command on Telegram, Ukrinform reported.
According to the command, as of 8:00 a.m., there are four enemy ships on combat duty in the Black Sea, four enemy ships in the Sea of Azov, and one enemy ship in the Mediterranean.
Also, from The Kyiv Independent...
Minister: First ship with Ukrainian grain leaves Black Sea port through temporary corridor
September 19, 2023 3:09 PM
The Palau-flagged Resilient Africa bulk carrier loaded with 3,000 metric tons of wheat has left the Black Sea port of Chornomorsk and is moving towards the Bosphorus, Infrastructure Minister Oleksandr Kubrakov reported on Sept. 19.
Resilient Africa and another cargo vessel, Aroyat, have become the first civilian ships that agreed to enter Ukrainian ports after Russia withdrew from the Black Sea Grain Initiative in July. They are expected to deliver 20,000 tons of grain to African and Asian countries.
Aroyat is still docked in the Chornomorsk port while loaded with Ukrainian wheat for Egypt, Kubrakov said on Facebook.
According to the official, the vessels are flying under the flag of the island nation of Palau, and their crews consist of Turkish, Azerbaijani, Egyptian, and Ukrainian citizens.
This post was edited on 9/19/23 at 8:32 am
Posted on 9/19/23 at 9:12 am to TBoy
quote:
Russia has no reality based fear of being invaded. Won't happen.
It all depends on their perceived willingness to use nukes. Japan could easily take Sakhalin Island. Russia doesn't have the resources in the Far East to stop it or the infrastructure to resupply. Their only two options would be nukes or just let it go.
Posted on 9/19/23 at 9:17 am to Tantal
wasting more of Americans money on making Ukraine and the biden crime family rich
Posted on 9/19/23 at 9:46 am to tigersmanager
quote:
wasting more of Americans money on making Ukraine and the biden crime family rich
When this is over, we need to politely withdraw from NATO. NATO already outnumbers Russia by 4:1 in terms of population even without us, so they'll be fine. Iran will be kept at bay by Turkey. The only real pressing issue on the horizon is China, but they're pretty well boxed-in by India, Japan, Australia, and ASEAN. South Korea outnumbers North Korea by 2:1 and has more advanced weaponry even if they lack total volume. We're pretty well insulated and can pick and choose carefully which interests and allies we want to defend in the future.
Posted on 9/19/23 at 10:04 am to Tantal
quote:
When this is over, we need to politely withdraw from NATO. NATO already outnumbers Russia by 4:1 in terms of population even without us, so they'll be fine. Iran will be kept at bay by Turkey. The only real pressing issue on the horizon is China, but they're pretty well boxed-in by India, Japan, Australia, and ASEAN. South Korea outnumbers North Korea by 2:1 and has more advanced weaponry even if they lack total volume. We're pretty well insulated and can pick and choose carefully which interests and allies we want to defend in the future.
There is an economic aspect which you are not considering. We make more by being in NATO, and ASEAN, than we are spending on those two arenas. There are two reasons that the US Dollar is the "gold" standard in international trade. First, no other currency is more widely available. Second, the omnipresence of the more powerful, internationally, military in the world, especially the Navy, which is the premier blue water navy globally. 2nd place isn't even close.
Posted on 9/19/23 at 10:08 am to CitizenK
quote:
We make more by being in NATO, and ASEAN, than we are spending on those two arenas.
We are not in ASEAN, but we still do plenty of business with them. Why wouldn't the same apply to Europe? That continent has been at war for centuries and I just don't see how it benefits us to pledge our forces to their wars.
Posted on 9/19/23 at 10:19 am to CitizenK
quote:
There is an economic aspect which you are not considering. We make more by being in NATO, and ASEAN, than we are spending on those two arenas.
Lol. I must’ve missed the history class that said it was a requirement that we be in unbreakable and everlasting military defense treaties that require us to provide for the defense of entire continents before we can start buy their shite or selling them our shite. Oh and we aren’t in ASEAN.
quote:
First, no other currency is more widely available. Second, the omnipresence of the more powerful, internationally, military in the world, especially the Navy, which is the premier blue water navy globally. 2nd place isn't even close.
Exactly, but that has nothing to do with your first point. We can have a big navy without promising to defend all of Europe so they can spend their money on education and healthcare and 3 years of mandatory paternity leave instead of buying an army that can defend themselves.
Posted on 9/19/23 at 10:23 am to Tantal
I should have said the Southeast Asia Treaty, along with Philippines, Japan, and ROK treaties.
One of the reasons that there have been no wars between NATO members is the inclusion of the USA. We ARE the economic beast in world affairs.
One of the reasons that there have been no wars between NATO members is the inclusion of the USA. We ARE the economic beast in world affairs.
Posted on 9/19/23 at 10:29 am to CitizenK
quote:
One of the reasons that there have been no wars between NATO members is the inclusion of the USA.
Right, but being the world's policeman hasn't been cheap. We did it for our Bretton Woods partners because it was in our interests, from a security perspective, to do so. The world has changed since 1945, so I think that our foreign policy should reflect the current times, not the immediate post-WW2 security environment.
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