re: Latest Updates: Russia-Ukraine Conflict

Ukraine officially announces that they have retaken Klischiivka: LINK

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The Ministry of Internal Affairs confirmed the liberation of Klishchiivka.

"Fighters of the Lyut National Police Brigade, together with soldiers of the 80th AIr Assault Brigade and 5th Separate Assault Brigade, as a result of heavy fighting, drove out the Russian occupiers and returned the Ukrainian flag to liberated Klishchiivka," they said.

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This seemed imminent a couple of months ago, but Ukrainian progress in this area was stopped for a while, until Russia eventually made the decision to strengthen the Tokmak sector at the expense of the Bakhmut area, which allowed Ukraine to finish taking Klischiivka.

Now, Ukraine has a new springboard to use as a base to advance further in the area south of Bakhmut.

Here's a mixed assessment of Europe's ability to ramp up ammo production: CNN

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But in February 2023, Europe-wide production of artillery ammunition had a maximum capacity of 300,000 shells annually, Estonian defense officials estimated. The best-case scenario of an increase to making 2.1 million shells annually is still years away from being realized.

With European stocks depleted and existing production lines overwhelmed, ammunition buyers are keen to get their hands on whatever’s available. In an interview with CNN, the CEO of shell casing manufacturer Europlasma described the buyers’ message as: “We’ll take all you can make.”

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Determined to help Ukraine in its struggle for survival, the European Commission in Brussels in March announced plans to provide Ukraine with 1 million artillery shells by March 2024 in a three-stage plan.

Initially, under the plan, European states would send what they could from their own national reserves. As of July 2023, some 224,000 shells had been delivered to Ukraine, per the EU.

The second stage called for European states to collectively purchase shells from local providers, avoiding competition between allies and hopefully boosting efficiency – eight major contracts at a cost of 1 billion euros ($ 1.06 billion) are being signed with suppliers currently.

Thirdly, the EU promised 500 million euros to boost longer-term production of 155mm shells – the NATO standard for artillery, investing in bigger factories and more secure supply lines to guarantee future production capacity.

Amid the rush to ramp up production, manufacturers are facing backlogs that could take years to work out, with production lag times that threaten their home country’s military readiness.

A French parliamentary report from February 2023 stated that standard 155mm shells would take up to 20 months to be delivered, rising to between 24 to 36 months for more advanced guided models.

“Three years ago, everyone thought we can do everything with airplanes. It’s not possible. Yes, we need strong land forces,” Rheinmetall CEO Armin Papperger told CNN.

German arms company Rheinmetall has a 40 billion euro ($43 billion) backlog of orders across its catalog of ammunition, weapon systems and vehicles, Papperger said, with ammunition accounting for 10 billion euros of that.

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The numbers behind the increase in European production are impressive.

Rheinmetall says its production should hit 400,000 shells this year, with 600,000 its goal for 2024. That’s up from producing less than 100,000 shells annually pre-2022.

Scandinavian munitions producer Nammo hopes to see production reach 80,000 shells annually next year, up from “a few thousand” in 2021.

However, these increases speak as much to the paltry demand prior to Russia’s 2022 invasion of Ukraine, as the EU’s push for increased production.

US suppliers have faced a similar uphill battle to boost production, with total US production expected to reach 100,000 shells monthly in 2025, up from 14,500 per month in early 2023, according to the head of Pentagon acquisitions, William LaPlante. US monthly production is currently at 28,000 shells per months, LaPlante added.

Even Tuuli Duneton, the senior the Estonian defense official who helped engineer the EU’s plan, admitted that the goal of producing 1 million shells for Kyiv in 12 months was “ambition combined with pragmatism,” given the difficulty of convincing member states to back a more demanding goal.

“This is just the beginning. This is something that ideally would grow, as the years go on, this number,” she said of the scheme, which is currently set to end in 2025.

However, the EU’s promise of 500 million euros ($532 million) to supplement private investment may be insufficient.

Nammo’s CEO Morten Brandtzæg estimates some $7 billion will be required to meet Kyiv’s needs currently and to restock Ukrainian and European arsenals, a project that could take a decade.

“It’s a very close dialogue with the governments, where can they co-invest? Where can we build more capacity? Where can we share the risk for building war-time capacity? The industry can’t pay for all that themselves,” Brandtzæg said.

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Ukraine should continue with the SOF raids on Crimea to hopefully draw some more units from the front to defend Crimea.

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We might as well all be at war

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Go volunteer

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Crimea either being Russian or A DMZ

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Russia will never agree to Crimea being a DMZ. They want it for the Naval bases and access to the Mediterranean and Atlantic

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Russia will never agree to Crimea being a DMZ. They want it for the Naval bases

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How's that working out for them? It's not going to get any better.

"and access to the Mediterranean and Atlantic"

Only when Turkey says OK. Which is a big NO now. Are they going to take Turkey too?

Russia will be lucky to hang on to Crimea as a DMZ. The only reason they can possibly manage that is because they've engaged in mass relocation of the Tatars to get a majority of Russians there. Turkey has a large population of Tatars (Turkic language speakers BTW) and is one of the reasons Turkey is not a friend of Russia in this. I'd like to see Crimea as a neutral homeland for the Tatars, though I doubt Russia will go for it without fricking around some more.

ISW update

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Ukrainian forces liberated Klishchiivka, south of Bakhmut, on September 17 and continued successful offensive operations elsewhere in the Bakhmut direction. Geolocated footage posted on September 17 shows Ukrainian forces holding up flags in Klishchiivka (7km southwest of Bakhmut).

Russian forces launched another series of Shahed-131/136 drone and cruise missile strikes at southern Ukraine on the night of September 16-17. The Ukrainian General Staff reported that Russian forces launched six Shahed drones from the southeastern and southern directions and 10 Kh-101/555/55 air-launched cruise missiles from nine Tu-95MS strategic bombers that took off from Engels Airbase, Saratov Oblast.[4] Ukrainian Air Force Spokesperson Colonel Yuriy Ihnat noted that Russian forces mainly targeted grain infrastructure in southern Odesa Oblast, and Ukrainian military sources stated that Ukrainian forces shot down six Shaheds and six cruise missiles

North Korean dictator Kim Jong Un concluded his trip to Russia on September 17 and received several pieces of military technical equipment from the governor of Primorsky Krai. Kremlin newswire TASS reported that Kim visited the Far Eastern Federal University on September 17, where he met with Russian military engineers.[8] TASS and other Russian sources additionally noted that Primorsky Krai Governor Oleg Kozhemyako gifted Kim a military vest, an unspecified loitering munition, and an unspecified long-range reconnaissance drone.

South Korean President Yoon Suuk-Yeol stated that Russian and North Korean military technical agreements may violate sanctions adopted by the UN Security Council.[12] Yoon stated that if information about these agreements is confirmed then this will be a violation of the sanctions and illegal.[13] The war in Ukraine has reportedly generated a rapid growth in South Korean arms exports as South Korea replenishes Western stocks of ammunition and systems that the West has sent to Ukraine.[14] South Korea has not yet directly supplied lethal security assistance to Ukraine.[15]

The Russian Ministry of Defense’s (MoD) effort to subsume the Wagner Group is prompting Russian officials to more openly back military juntas in West Africa. A Russian military delegation, including Russian Deputy Defense Minister Yunus-Bek Yevkurov and Main Military Intelligence Directorate (GRU) General Andrei Averyanov, arrived in Bamako, Mali on September 16.[16] Yevkurov reportedly met with the Burkinabe, Nigerien, and Malian defense ministers; Malian junta head Assimi Goita; and Burkinabe junta head Paul-Henri Sandaogo Damiba.[17] Mali, Niger, and Burkina Faso signed a security pact on September 16 promising to come to each other's aid in the case of any rebellion or external aggression.[18] The Russian military delegation’s meeting with the political and military leadership of the three junta governments before the signing of the agreement likely indicates that Russian officials are prepared to more explicitly support these juntas

Prolonged concern about Chechen Republic Head Ramzan Kadyrov’s health in the Russian information space highlights Russian President Vladimir Putin’s dependence on Kadyrov for continued stability in Chechnya. The Ukrainian Main Intelligence Directorate (GUR) reportedly confirmed that Kadyrov was in a coma on September 15, prompting rumors about Kadyrov’s poor health among Russian milbloggers and insider sources.[20] Kadyrov denied the rumors about his health in a video posted on September 17.[21] The destabilization of Kadyrov’s rule in Chechnya would be a major blow to Putin’s regime, in part because of how central the establishment of stability in Chechnya through a brutal and bloody war was to Putin’s early popularity in Russia. Kadyrov and other Russian officials may be concerned that continued rumors about his health will affect the long-term stability of his, and by extension Putin’s, control of Chechnya.

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Key Takeaways:

Ukrainian forces liberated Klishchiivka, south of Bakhmut, on September 17 and continued successful offensive operations elsewhere in the Bakhmut direction.

Russian forces launched another series of Shahed-131/136 drone and cruise missile strikes at southern Ukraine on the night of September 16-17.

North Korean dictator Kim Jong Un concluded his trip to Russia on September 17 and received several pieces of military technical equipment from the governor of Primorsky Krai.

The Russian Ministry of Defense’s (MoD) effort to subsume the Wagner Group is prompting Russian officials to more openly back military juntas in West Africa.

Prolonged concern about Chechen Republic Head Ramzan Kadyrov’s health in the Russian information space highlights Russian President Vladimir Putin’s dependence on Kadyrov for continued stability in Chechnya.

Russian forces conducted offensive operations along the Kupyansk-Svatove-Kreminna line, near Bakhmut, along the Avdiivka-Donetsk City line, and in the Donetsk-Zaporizhia Oblast area on September 17 and advanced in some areas.

Ukrainian forces also continued counteroffensive operations in western Zaporizhia Oblast.

Recent Russian claims that small contingents of former Wagner Group personnel are returning to fight in Ukraine do not indicate that a fully reconstituted Wagner fighting force will return to Ukraine anytime soon if ever.

Russian occupation administrations continue to forcibly deport Ukrainian children to Russia and erase Ukrainian cultural identity.

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Where are we going to end up with this shite? I guess Putin is not killable or going to die so this shite is going to drag on forever now.

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As long as Western support for Ukraine holds up, there is no foreseeable end in sight. It’s a stalemate and neither side has the strength to land a knockout blow on the other, a war of pure attrition. So the only way this ends is one side reaches the point of exhaustion and collapse.

I support Ukraine in this shite show 100% don’t get me wrong, but as a former pt lobbyist I trust our government and politicians 0%. We will not stay the course regardless of who is elected.

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As long as Western support for Ukraine holds up, there is no foreseeable end in sight. It’s a stalemate and neither side has the strength to land a knockout blow on the other, a war of pure attrition. So the only way this ends is one side reaches the point of exhaustion and collapse.

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Hopefully we get a RFK/ Gabbard 3rd party ticket , get the W next November and strike an unilateral agreement with Russia where we let them run the east, we run the west and then team up with them to stymie China’s ambitions.