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re: Latest Updates: Russia-Ukraine Conflict
Posted on 8/27/23 at 6:42 pm to ned nederlander
Posted on 8/27/23 at 6:42 pm to ned nederlander
quote:
IMHO they would be better off using them elsewhere in a defensive position, keeping them fueled and serviced on a moving front may be a bit too much sugar for a dime.
That has been my thought from the beginning as well. 30 tanks aren’t going to break through a defensive line for you.
But being able to respond and counter any Russian offensive elsewhere would seem a good use of this resource. Holding the line in a place like kreminna would be hugely valuable and hopefully keep the tanks protected and in the fight for a long stretch of time.
That is what my sauce(s) in the UAF were speculating on the last time I was in Ukraine. They believed that the Abrams and the most advanced versions of the Leopards would be held in reserve in northern Ukraine to allow for training and to counter any new Russian offensive toward Kyiv or Kharkiv.
Posted on 8/27/23 at 6:47 pm to WeeWee
Moscow airports again closed right now, because of Ukrainian drones.
I said it the other day and I'll say it again: airlines such as Turkish, Emirates, Qatar, etc. are going to get tired of losing money with all the delays and hassles involved in flying to Moscow. This is not something that can continue indefinitely.
I said it the other day and I'll say it again: airlines such as Turkish, Emirates, Qatar, etc. are going to get tired of losing money with all the delays and hassles involved in flying to Moscow. This is not something that can continue indefinitely.
Posted on 8/27/23 at 6:48 pm to WeeWee
Interesting article that discusses The fate of every Russian military officer who has had success in Ukraine.. If you’ve been following throughout, you already know the punch line.
Good read.
Good read.
Posted on 8/27/23 at 7:02 pm to GOP_Tiger
Might as well just close down the Moscow airport. They're having big closures on a daily basis now.
Posted on 8/27/23 at 7:05 pm to GOP_Tiger
quote:
I said it the other day and I'll say it again: airlines such as Turkish, Emirates, Qatar, etc. are going to get tired of losing money with all the delays and hassles involved in flying to Moscow. This
Maybe but Turkish alone has 6 daily flights to/from Moscow and only 2 of them land late night/early morning. So they really aren't getting all that impacted since Ukraine tends to send drones around the same time each day (nowish and its 3 AM right now which would only delay 1 takeoff)
Posted on 8/27/23 at 7:05 pm to GOP_Tiger
quote:
Mainly quoting this for the Crimea comment. That reads as though Ukraine is already planning on not reclaiming it. Not overly shocking in and of itself more shocking hearing come from Zelensky
The likely solution in Crimea is something like independence or de facto independence, with UN supervision.
So, Russia would have to abandon its military bases, but both Russian and Ukrainian would be official languages, the Kerch Bridge could remain, etc.
The Kerch Bridge is done for once Ukraine builds enough drone attack boats. Just one hit knocked it down to one usable lane of traffic. The supports for the main arches were rumored to be poorly designed and construction was rumored to be rushed by Russia. 3 or 4 drone hits could bring it the arches down especially if Ukraine hits them in the winter when the arches are coated in thousands of pounds of ice.
Posted on 8/27/23 at 7:06 pm to 03GeeTee
quote:
Might as well just close down the Moscow airport. They're having big closures on a daily basis now.
But only around midnight to 3 am. Ukriane would need to vary the actual attack times and spread them out enough to not lift the ground stop to even have that be a logical choice.
Posted on 8/27/23 at 7:10 pm to Darth_Vader
Massive material support from the USA also played a big role is the soviet victory over the Nazis in ww2.
Posted on 8/27/23 at 7:21 pm to StormyMcMan
quote:
"If we are on the administrative border with Crimea, I believe that we can politically push for russia's demilitarization on the peninsula."
If Ukraine is on the border with Crimea then Russia won't have much of a choice about demilitarizing Crimea, at least for naval and air power. Ukraine will be able to knock that out quickly, as long as NATO is still supporting them. And what use are ground forces in attacking across from Crimea? Almost none when Ukraine has prepared defenses.
The difficult part for Ukraine in Crimea (as another poster alluded) is that Russia has ethnically cleansed the Tatars (natives) out and replaced them with Russians. Pretty typical for the Russians, see Kaliningrad for another example. And there are many more. A side effect for Russia, though, is that there are millions of Tatars in Turkey (with their own ethnic cleansing history). And that has a lot to do with Turkey mostly siding with Ukraine. Probably most of the people (relocated Russians) in Ukraine will side with Russia. And the Russians have been moving ethnic Ukrainians out of the Donbas, though they have also drafted and killed a lot of ethnic Russians in the Donbas as well. But probably the Donbas marginally supports Russia. Not an easy thing for Ukraine to incorporate either as they rebuild.
So basically I expect this to end with Ukraine controlling to the Crimean border to the north. And Russian with most of the Donbas. And strong NATO guarantees for Ukraine, maybe membership. Melitopol in Ukraine, Mariupol Russian, maybe the DMZ at Berdyans'k. Just a complete WAG. Ultimately a big loss for Russia in the treasure, lives, and long term picture. And unfortunately painful for Ukraine too.
What a despicably stupid gamble by Putin.
Posted on 8/27/23 at 7:23 pm to StormyMcMan
It'll be interesting to see what Ukraine does with these new cardboard kamikaze drones they got from Australia. They were used in the recent attack on the Russian planes at Kursk. Seems like they would be ideal for partisans to use on attacks deep inside Russia.
Posted on 8/27/23 at 8:01 pm to cypher
quote:
On the night of 26-27 August, the military counterintelligence service of the Security Service of Ukraine (SSU) struck Russian Su-30 and MiG-29 aircraft, as well as S-300s and Pantsirs, at the Kursk airfield with 16 drones.
Source: Sources of Ukrainska Pravda in SSU
Details: Ukrainska Pravda's sources indicate that kamikaze drones attacked four Su-30 and one MiG-29 aircraft.
Also, S-300 radars and two Pantsirs are among the struck targets.
SSU reported that almost all the drones reached their targets.
LINK

Posted on 8/27/23 at 8:15 pm to 03GeeTee
Isw update
quote:
Ukrainian forces reportedly advanced in the western Donetsk-eastern Zaporizhia Oblast border area and in western Zaporizhia Oblast amid Ukrainian counteroffensive operations in southern and eastern Ukraine
A Ukrainian soldier, likely operating in the Robotyne area, offered further tactical details on the prepared Russian defensive positions that Ukrainian forces have penetrated and on those that are currently ahead of them. The Ukrainian soldier stated that, in the Robotyne area, there is a system of interconnected Russian trenches, dugouts, and limited underground tunnels that allow Russian forces to facilitate the movement of personnel, weaponry, and ammunition from different tactical positions along the front.[4] The Ukrainian soldier stated that anti-tank ditches and minefields stretch across fields in front of and in between these interconnected layers of defensive positions.[5] The soldier added that all “unexcavated” areas around these prepared defensive positions are heavily mined and that Russian forces have narrowly designated unmined paths in their defensive layers to allow Russian forces to reach firing positions.[6] The Ukrainian soldier did not indicate whether the Ukrainian forces had passed through the densest minefields but suggested that Ukrainian forces still had to demine areas at a gradual pace before advancing further.[7] ISW previously assessed that areas near the next series of prepared Russian defensive positions may be less heavily mined to give Russian forces operating north of these positions the ability to retreat, although the Ukrainian soldier’s reporting suggests that this may not be the case in the areas where Ukrainian forces are currently approaching the next Russian defensive layer.[8] Ukrainian forces are now within striking distance of the next series of Russian defensive positions, which appears to be comprised of a relatively more contiguous array of anti-tank ditches and dragon’s teeth anti-tank obstacles with Russian fighting positions behind these obstacles similar to the previous layer of Russian defenses.[9] The highly interconnected systems of trenches and dugouts that the Ukrainian soldier described is the result of months of Russian preparation and it is unclear if Russian forces extended that system throughout subsequent series of defensive positions further south.
The composition of Russian defensive positions in southern Ukraine and the ambiguities about how Russian forces are manning and equipping them continues to obscure how the next phase of fighting will transpire
Russian forces conducted missile strikes against targets in Ukraine on the night of August 26 to 27 and reportedly targeted a Ukrainian airfield in Kyiv Oblast
The Russian MoD appears to have unsuccessfully attempted to silence Russian milbloggers’ concerns over the alleged mistreatment of a Russian brigade operating in occupied Kherson Oblast — sparking further criticism from the ultranationalist community.
The Russian Investigative Committee announced on August 27 that genetic tests confirm that Wagner Group financier Yevgeny Prigozhin was among 10 people killed in a plane crash on August 23.
Russian milbloggers claimed that the Russian MoD had been actively setting conditions to halt Wagner Group’s operations in the Middle East and Africa prior to Prigozhin’s death on August 23. A Kremlin-affiliated milblogger amplified reports that Russian Deputy Defense Minister Yunus-Bek Yevkurov visited Syria and Libya to coerce local officials into severing their cooperation with Wagner forces.
The Russian MoD may be more intensely focused on disbanding the Wagner Group than Russian President Vladimir Putin
quote:
Key Takeaways:
Ukrainian forces reportedly advanced in the western Donetsk-eastern Zaporizhia Oblast border area and in western Zaporizhia Oblast amid Ukrainian counteroffensive operations in southern and eastern Ukraine.
A Ukrainian soldier likely operating in the Robotyne area offered further tactical details on the prepared Russian defensive positions that Ukrainian forces have penetrated and on those that are currently ahead of them.
The composition of Russian defensive positions in southern Ukraine and the ambiguities about how Russian forces are manning and equipping them continues to obscure how the next phase of fighting will transpire.
Russian forces conducted missile strikes against targets in Ukraine on the night of August 26 to 27 and reportedly targeted a Ukrainian airfield in Kyiv Oblast.
The Russian Investigative Committee announced on August 27 that genetic tests confirm that Wagner Group financier Yevgeny Prigozhin was among 10 people killed in a plane crash on August 23.
Russian milbloggers claimed that the Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD) had been actively setting conditions to halt Wagner Group’s operations in the Middle East and Africa prior to Prigozhin’s death on August 23.
The Russian MoD may be more intensely focused on disbanding the Wagner Group than Russian President Vladimir Putin.
Russian forces conducted offensive operations along the Kupyansk-Svatove-Kreminna line, near Bakhmut, along the Avdiivka-Donetsk City line, in western Donetsk Oblast, and in western Zaporizhia Oblast but did not make confirmed advances.
Russian authorities continue efforts to coerce migrants and foreigners living in Russia to fight in the war in Ukraine in exchange for Russian citizenship.
Posted on 8/27/23 at 8:15 pm to ColtRange
You can't tell anything from that shitty pic.
Posted on 8/27/23 at 8:21 pm to 03GeeTee
Tartarigami has apparently ordered a higher resolution shot that should show if any damage was caused.
Will post here once he has uploaded it.
https://twitter.com/Tatarigami_UA/status/1695839443461054761
Based on the imagery already provided there doesn't appear to be any noticeable damage, though several objects give the impression of disappearing between the 19th and 27th (green circles) and some objects appear south of the runways by the 27th (blue circle).
Without better resolution this could be due to movement of those objects, the result of the claimed strike or just the difference in brightness between images from the 19th and 27th.
Edit: Added context on original imagery.
Will post here once he has uploaded it.
https://twitter.com/Tatarigami_UA/status/1695839443461054761
quote:
I have ordered 0.5 resolution shot, waiting for it
Based on the imagery already provided there doesn't appear to be any noticeable damage, though several objects give the impression of disappearing between the 19th and 27th (green circles) and some objects appear south of the runways by the 27th (blue circle).
Without better resolution this could be due to movement of those objects, the result of the claimed strike or just the difference in brightness between images from the 19th and 27th.
Edit: Added context on original imagery.
This post was edited on 8/27/23 at 8:39 pm
Posted on 8/27/23 at 8:45 pm to Texicurean
quote:
Massive material support from the USA also played a big role is the soviet victory over the Nazis in ww2.
Though many revisionists today want to downplay the role of American aid to the Soviets during WWII, simply put, without it, the Soviets would have collapsed. When Germany invaded the Soviet Union they overran the vast majority of their food producing regions, along with a massive chunk of their natural resources. During the first 6 months of the invasion, German forces managed to occupy or isolate territory which prior to WWII accounted for over 60% of total coal, pig iron, and aluminum production. Nearly 40% of total grain production and 60% of total livestock was lost. Really, from summer 1941 to summer 1944, the only resource the Soviets had in abundance was crude oil. But crude oil is worthless without refineries. And the Soviets were short in this area, but there were many others. Here is a short list off the top of my head that the Soviets were either entirely or at least heavily reliant on from the US:
Aviation fuel
Grain
Meat (we sent over 100M pounds of Spam)
Aluminum
Iron
Steel
Rubber
Leather
Cotton
Wool
Trucks
Communication equipment
Batteries
Ball bearing
Surgical equipment of all sorts
And that’s only the tip of the iceberg. The bottom line is this, without US aid, by late 1943 the Red Army would have been a foot-born mob of starving, disease riddled, barefoot men. Their tanks and artillery would be abandoned due to lack of fuel. The Red Air Force would be grounded due to lack of an aviation fuel. Meanwhile, all the factories the Soviets managed to evacuate to beyond the Urals would be idled due to lack of of things like steel and aluminum, not to mention the fact there would be no way to feed the factory workers. And whatever they were able to produce would be left sitting uselessly at the factory because, due to a lack of fuel, there was no way to send whatever they made to the front.
Posted on 8/27/23 at 9:13 pm to Darth_Vader
They met US troops in Shermans, not T-34's and preferred those to T-34
Posted on 8/27/23 at 11:35 pm to CitizenK
This is a really fascinating read from @solonko1648 via Tatarigami.
It explores the accomplishments and difficulties Ukraine has faced in its attempts to break through Russia defences in the south and confirms many of the conclusions that have already been made here, especially in relation to the role of aerial reconnaissance and its impact on artillery fire. It also highlights just how well fortified Russia has made their defensive lines.
https://twitter.com/Tatarigami_UA/status/1695563964158025974
Edit: Added further comment
It explores the accomplishments and difficulties Ukraine has faced in its attempts to break through Russia defences in the south and confirms many of the conclusions that have already been made here, especially in relation to the role of aerial reconnaissance and its impact on artillery fire. It also highlights just how well fortified Russia has made their defensive lines.
https://twitter.com/Tatarigami_UA/status/1695563964158025974
quote:
Translation:
Much has been written about the battles in the South. I wouldn't say that this is the case where it's better to see once (or multiple times) than to hear/read about it many times. Especially through the eyes of the frontline units. A thread about battles from the perspective of aerial reconnaissance:
Environment. Steppe. Fields, tree lines. Slight elevations and dips, villages, small rivers. Minefields. Whoever you may be, an armored assault group, evacuation team, aerial or infantry reconnaissance, your movement is visible from afar. The enemy has long been preparing.
Equipment and personnel can be spotted from a distance and targeted. Both sides understand that there are limited places for positions and deployment. Most likely, there's something to shoot at in almost every tree line. Confirmation is needed, of course. Primarily, it's necessary to determine the priority of the target
There's a limited number of access roads, logistical routes. Everything's been calibrated and fired upon repeatedly every day. You certainly can be spotted. Carrying out the mission while maintaining complete concealment from the enemy is mostly impossible
There has been a great deal of talk about fortifications and minefields. Every tree line has been dug up. On one stretch of the Mariupol highway, anti-tank fortifications have been installed. We're not just talking about trenches. There's an entire system of trenches, dugouts, and even undeground tunnels in some places
![]()
In each tree line, there's a network of trenches and firing positions for various weapons. AGS, DShK, ATGMs. Anti-tank ditches and mine obstacles stretch across the fields. From regular TM and POM mines to more "sophisticated" ones, all lying in wait for infantry.
Once again, it's crucial to emphasize that we're specifically discussing a system of trenches, interconnected by passageways and pathways. These pathways facilitate the movement of personnel, weaponry, and ammunition. As for what remains unexcavated, it's mined. All of this must be navigated to make progress forward.
![]()
For those who are "overly smart" and believe that the Ukrainian Armed Forces took an incredibly long time to drive the Russians out of the village of Robotyne, they must have missed the defense system that needed to be overcome in order to push the russians away from the Mariupol highway and gradually approach the village, encircle it, and finally seize control. Truly, a monumental task has been accomplished.
![]()
The russians are establishing firing points (AGS, heavy machine guns), and they mine the routes to them. They themselves move along designated paths. Our positions in the liberated territory are surrounded by mines and tripwires. Paths are cleared for ingress, and sappers gradually clear the area.
Frequently, the hidden "surprises" detonate during shelling, triggered by fires that start due to the shelling (weeds, shrubs, and trees catch fire, setting off tripwires). At times, we ourselves discover and call in sappers to clear specific areas.
There's much talk about armored vehicle losses, I'll skip the topic of initial setbacks. In the long run, it's impossible to entirely avoid armor losses, especially due to the enemy's advantage in the air. However, armor serves a specific purpose that entails risks.
These actions are justified by the fact that they save lives. I spoke with a soldier who survived two direct hits on a Bradley during shelling. Even the most critically damaged equipment is recovered and taken for repairs. You can replace a piece of metal, even if it's expensive, but you can't repair a human life
Enemy ATGM operators position cameras in advance of their positions. This way, they can spot targets (all types of vehicles) in advance and engage them effectively. If successful, artillery finishes off the targets. Alternatively, they might start with air force, followed by artillery.
They hunt for evacuation teams – both vehicles and stations. Right under our noses, they hit an armored vehicle, and an evacuation vehicle arrived for the guys. They had to maneuver in a tight spot, moving very slowly on a narrow road, avoiding going off-road into a mined field. Taking risks as well. Fortunately, they managed to get them out.
KAB's are one of the biggest fears. The russians use them extensively. I can't speak to their accuracy, but the weaponry is powerful. They attempt to target logistics and command centers, just as we do. They don't hesitate to simply fire on roads. Forward defenses in settlements are constantly under shelling.
The aerial reconnaissance linked system Orlan-Zala-Supercam is effective and causing issues. They identify targets and launch Lances, releasing them in swarms along with KAB's. They attempt to break through and hunt down vehicles.
The recaptured positions are even more calibrated. Bombs are not spared. No lack of mines either. The tree line where one of the crews was operating was simply leveled. Only a palisade remained, and a well-made trench ceased to be usable.
The russians use a standard tactic for their armor. The route to the firing position is determined, usually in a way that keeps the vehicles under visual cover of the tree lines and eventually positions them in an open space for shooting. They quickly expend their ammunition and retreat
Vehicle cannot be completely concealed. Dust clouds are visible during movement, and the vehicles can be seen shifting between tree lines, while drones provide visibility as well. The main task here is to execute the firing mission quickly enough to prevent artillery targeting or counterattacks using FPV or ATGMs.
I understand why the russians are intensively butthurt due to the loss of the village with six streets. They put in significant effort to prevent the Ukrainian Armed Forces from advancing. Defending is easier according to all norms. On the other hand, we're putting in a tremendous effort to break through. And when we succeed, it shows that our efforts are paying off
Thank you for your attention. I might continue sharing in the future. Meanwhile, I invite you to follow on Facebook and TG (Telegram): https://facebook.com/osolonko
https://t.me/silukr/122
Postscript: The original thread can be found here: https://twitter.com/solonko1648/status/1695525388670095804
If you're interested in updates, I highly recommend following him.
Translation by
@Tatarigami_UA
Edit: Added further comment
This post was edited on 8/27/23 at 11:38 pm
Posted on 8/27/23 at 11:48 pm to 03GeeTee
quote:
It'll be interesting to see what Ukraine does with these new cardboard kamikaze drones they got from Australia. They were used in the recent attack on the Russian planes at Kursk. Seems like they would be ideal for partisans to use on attacks deep inside Russia.
Saw an article on those a while back. Very cheap to produce and kind of stealty on radar too.
Posted on 8/28/23 at 5:34 am to TBoy
quote:Good article. As we know, with dictators competence is seen as a danger.
The fate of every Russian military officer who has had success in Ukraine.
Posted on 8/28/23 at 6:21 am to Coeur du Tigre
British Defence Intelligence
INTELLIGENCE UPDATE
UPDATE ON UKRAINE 28 August 2023
Russia has highly likely cancelled Exercise ZAPAD ('West') 23, its planned 'joint strategic exercise' (JSE) and major annual event intended to be the culmination of the military's training year. The exercise should have taken place in September 2023.
From 2010 Russia ran a four-year cycle, rotating JSEs around the country. However, since 2021, Russia has based the JSE in western Russia at least every second year as it prioritises confronting what it perceives as the threat from NATO. This follows ZAPAD 21, the largest Russian exercise since Soviet times.
The Russian military's under-performance in Ukraine has highlighted how JSEs have had limited training value and have largely been for show. Russia has likely cancelled ZAPAD 23 because too few troops and equipment are available. There is a realistic possibility that the Russian leadership is also sensitive to domestic criticism liable from running another slickly presented JSE during wartime.
INTELLIGENCE UPDATE
UPDATE ON UKRAINE 28 August 2023
Russia has highly likely cancelled Exercise ZAPAD ('West') 23, its planned 'joint strategic exercise' (JSE) and major annual event intended to be the culmination of the military's training year. The exercise should have taken place in September 2023.
From 2010 Russia ran a four-year cycle, rotating JSEs around the country. However, since 2021, Russia has based the JSE in western Russia at least every second year as it prioritises confronting what it perceives as the threat from NATO. This follows ZAPAD 21, the largest Russian exercise since Soviet times.
The Russian military's under-performance in Ukraine has highlighted how JSEs have had limited training value and have largely been for show. Russia has likely cancelled ZAPAD 23 because too few troops and equipment are available. There is a realistic possibility that the Russian leadership is also sensitive to domestic criticism liable from running another slickly presented JSE during wartime.
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