re: Latest Updates: Russia-Ukraine Conflict

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keep that shite in your containment zone

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He wants a Filipino husband just like Jim Hoft has

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Gateway Pundit

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Hey, man, I think I was driving behind you yesterday. I took a pic ... is this your car?

Tatarigami has a very interesting post on the importance of Robotyne and observing that Russia's loss of the town was almost catastrophic for them.

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I'll refrain from asserting that russian lines are on the brink of collapse and their forces defeated – it's unfortunate that their units successfully executed a tactical retreat, averting encirclement and potential neutralization.

The effectiveness of minefields, fortifications, anti-tank trenches, and similar engineering obstacles becomes significant only when they are adequately manned and remain under fire control.

Unfortunately, their retreat affords them the opportunity to maintain the presence of manned trenches and supervised minefields. However, the exact count and resource availability involved remains uncertain.

Considering the available open-source loss data, it's apparent that Russian forces are experiencing a continued degradation of troops, potentially necessitating the deployment of supplementary troops to rectify the deteriorating situation.

If russians were to pursue this as their next move, the remaining question pertains to whether Ukraine has the necessary forces to build upon the achieved success – a question to which I currently lack an answer.

Nonetheless, this stands as an important development, and russia's attempt to undermine its significance only serves as evidence that things aren't so great as russians want to portray.

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In further comments, he made it clear that the significance of the Ukrainian victory in Robotyne is the force that Russia expended in defending it. (EDIT: I made similar comments a week ago about the losses Russia suffered in unsuccessfully trying to defend Urozhaine.)

Furthermore, in a response to someone asking about the "main defensive line," he responded:

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What defines "main" defensive line is disposition of troops, not number of fortifications. People are too focused on fortifications - they are quite irrelevant in comparison with resource allocation.

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I think that is a critical point. Surovikin had the defensive fortifications produced, and if he were still in charge, I imagine that Russia would largely have defended FROM those defensive positions in order to inflict maximum losses on Ukrainian troops while preserving Russian force strength -- that's what the fortifications were for!

But Russia has not defended that way at all, because Surovikin was replaced, and his (correct) strategy of protecting Russian troops and equipment was replaced with a strategy of strategy of holding land, even at considerable cost.

As I mentioned yesterday, visually-documented equipment losses along the southern front since June 11th amount to 299 Russian equipment losses, compared to only 246 Ukrainian losses.

The artillery losses (as of August 16th) are especially significant and have led to a Ukrainian advantage in artillery power for the first time in the war:




Tatarigami is correct, I think, that we can focus too much on the lines, since Russia is not at all using them the way they were intended, and Russia is continually putting large formations in front of them.

DefMon makes some similar points:

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Russian forces will suffer as they get pushed closer to the Surovikin line.

The same things which makes you benefit from a defensive line will also make you suffer if you are on the wrong side of it.

Enemy, defender etc. does not refer to Ukraine or Russia specifically in this thread.

The purpose of a defensive line is to slow down the enemy, make him avoid the area or funnel him so he becomes an easier target and hopefully stop him.

To be able to supply your own troops operating past the defensive lines, you need to leave gaps.
As you fall back behind your own defensive lines you would try to mine those gaps.

An illustration of how you get funneled if you breach an enemy defensive line. Red areas are supposed to illustrate minefields. This is of course a simplified example, but it will do to get my point across.

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The problem comes when you are getting pushed back to your own defensive position, your will get squeezed and funneled in reverse. Your maneuvering ability will become hindered and your movement pattern will become predictable. You will be an easier target.

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I'm not saying this puts the defender at a disadvantage over all I simply wanted to highlight that you benefit less from the defensive line until your fall back behind it.

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I'll refrain from asserting that russian lines are on the brink of collapse and their forces defeated – it's unfortunate that their units successfully executed a tactical retreat, averting encirclement and potential neutralization.

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I don't know who this is, but I can tell you he's not an honest person. Based on this line alone.

He's suggesting the idea, planting it in the head of his hopeful audience, and then he's saying, well I don't have to explain or justify it. But I do want you to think about it. It's the rhetorical device of liar. This is not someone you should pay attention to.

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he problem comes when you are getting pushed back to your own defensive position, your will get squeezed and funneled in reverse. Your maneuvering ability will become hindered and your movement pattern will become predictable. You will be an easier target.

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Retreating is a dangerous, yes, and that's been true since the dawn of war. It was certainly true in antiquity. But the existence of prepared defenses makes much safer. And the existence of supporting elements who can suppress the enemy forces, while you retreat, make it much less of an issue. But maneuvering? What he's imagining they would be doing?

It's bizarre to read his writing, because the attacker is still grossly at the disadvantage here, all things being equal. They've just expended a significant amount of resources breaking through, and now they have to do it again, two more times, and through a very narrow front, while the defender collapses their forces on the breach.

This kind of plan only works if you're moving very quickly, we're talking hours, days, and when you're moving faster than they are, and when you're local concentration of forces is much higher than the enemies. But that's not what's happening, the Ukrainians are fighting a battle of attrition against the Russians, but without an obvious superiority in manpower, and certainly not in firepower.

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I'm not saying this puts the defender at a disadvantage over all I simply wanted to highlight that you benefit less from the defensive line until your fall back behind it.

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Wait, he's saying that a defensive line doesn't matter, to the defender, if you're on the wrong side of it (or not occupying it)? Why would anyone waste their time saying that, yes, literally, it doesn't protect you unless you're occupying it. That needs no explanation. But it's also not strictly correct. Because the existence of extensive, supporting, prepared defensives, does make you safer in this case.

ISW Update

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Key Takeaways:

Ukrainian forces made tactically significant gains in and east of Robotyne in western Zaporizhia Oblast on August 20-21 while continuing counteroffensive operations on the Donetsk-Zaporizhia Oblast administrative border and in eastern Ukraine.

Russian milbloggers continue to indicate that Russian forces lack equipment and suffer from low morale along the entire frontline.

The Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD) is creating new military formations possibly to allow more combat effective units currently defending in Kherson Oblast to redeploy to more critical sectors of the front.

Russian insider sources indicated that Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu and Chief of the General Staff Army General Valery Gerasimov may have decisively won Russian President Vladimir’s Putin favor following the June 24 Wagner Group rebellion.

Wagner Group financier Yevgeny Prigozhin may be attempting to re-establish Wagner in Africa, and some Russian sources are portraying this reported effort as necessary for Wagner’s survival.

Some Russian sources are likely running an information operation to exaggerate the degree to which Wagner is struggling to survive, possibly in support of the Russian MoD effort to destroy Prigozhin’s reputation and the whole Wagner Group.

Russian sources made and walked back claims about significant Russian advances in the Kupyansk direction amid continued offensive actions on August 21.

Russian forces conducted offensive operations near Kreminna, Bakhmut, and along the Avdiivka-Donetsk City line and advanced near Bakhmut.

The Russian government continues to introduce mandatory nationalistic and militaristic courses into high school curriculum to promote military service among Russian youth.

Belarusian authorities reportedly exposed forcibly deported Ukrainian children to pro-Kremlin propaganda in Belarus.

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British Defence Intelligence
INTELLIGENCE UPDATE
UPDATE ON UKRAINE 22 August 2023

On 19 August 2023, a Tu-22M3 BACKFIRE medium bomber of Russia's Long Range Aviation (LRA) was highly likely destroyed at Soltsky-2 Airbase in Novgorod Oblast, 650 km away from Ukraine's border. The Russian Defence Ministry said that a copter-style uncrewed aerial vehicle (UAV) was responsible for the attack.

If true, this adds weight to the assessment that some UAV attacks against Russian military targets are being launched from inside Russian territory. Copter UAVs are unlikely to have the range to reach Soltsky-2 from outside Russia.

Russia has frequently used BACKFIRE bombers to launch the notoriously inaccurate AS-4 KITCHEN heavy anti-ship missiles against Ukraine. Early in the war, they also carried out the intense bombardment of Mariupol using unguided bombs. This is at least the third successful attack on LRA airfields, again raising questions about Russia's ability to protect strategic locations deep inside the country.

Random tweets

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Wagner hosted a summer camp for kidnapped Ukrainian children.

Plan to host more.

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LINK

The next 2 are from Rybar

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The rotation of the AFU continues in the Vremivka sector due to high losses, accompanied by periodic attacks on the Russian Armed Forces positions near Urozhaynoye. The goal of the AFU in this section remains the same - to wear down the defending Russian units and break through to Staromlynivka.

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LINK

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Orekhiv Sector
August 22, 2023

Fierce battles continue in Robotyne. Ukrainian Armed Forces are attempting to establish themselves in the village using the tactic of sending assault groups. Today, Ukrainian forces have started to release videos from Robotyne, claiming control over the village.

Assault units from the 82nd Separate Airborne Brigade have indeed secured positions on the northern outskirts. Periodically, AFU tries to attack Russian Armed Forces positions to the south, but as of now, the attacks are repelled. A significant part of the village is within the gray zone, subjected to artillery and aerial bombardment.

Similar offensives are noted to the east of Rabotino, where skirmishes are taking place in the fields. AfU is exerting pressure in this area, disregarding losses. A similar attempt at a assault was made southeast of Chubenkov Ravine, where Russian Armed Forces repelled the attack.

The paratroopers of the 82nd Brigade suffered losses and evacuated the wounded and killed while deploying a smoke screen in Mala Tokmachka. However, reinforcements from the 118th Separate Motorized Rifle Brigade of the 10th Army Corps have been positioned in Mala Tokmachka and are preparing for a second wave breakthrough. It's likely they will join the battle once/if there's a breakthrough between Robotyneand Verbovo.

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LINK

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Ukrainian-Russian war. Day 545:
Situation on Zaporizhia front: Following the arrival of new reinforcements #RussianArmy launched a counterattack and managed to recover the recent lost positions in the center of Robotyne/???????? town.

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LINK

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Why would Ukraine give up its sovereignty when it still controls > 80% of its territory.

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The peace at any price crowd seem to be on Russia’s side.

Surovikin, who hasn't been seen much (if at all) in Russian media since the Wagner mutiny has been fired from his position as commander of Russian aerospace forces.

https://meduza.io/en/news/2023/08/22/russian-journalists-report-general-armageddon-surovikin-fired-as-commander-of-aerospace-forces

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General Sergey Surovikin has been relieved of his post as a Commander-in-chief of Russia’s Aerospace Forces, writes journalist Alexei Venediktov, the former head of radio station Echo of Moscow, citing an order from the Russian president.

Venediktov adds that, according to the presidential order, Surovikin will remain employed by the Defense Ministry.

The order has not been officially published.

Journalist Ksenia Sobchak reports that, according to her information, Surovikin was fired by closed decree on August 18.

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https://twitter.com/WarMonitors/status/1694030879637549056

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RBC reported that Army General Sergei Surovikin was relieved of his post as Commander-in-Chief of the Aerospace Forces due to a transfer to another job.

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I think there is also a likely possibility it is related to recent unsuccessful and successful attacks within Russia such as the downing of drones within Moscow and the destruction of a Tu-22 at Soltsy airfield.

Since the strike the remaining craft have reportedly been moved to Olenya air base, similar to what happened after the Engels airbase incident previously.

https://twitter.com/kromark/status/1693916702847717473





Edit: Added quotes