re: Latest Updates: Russia-Ukraine Conflict

ISW Update

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Key Takeaways:

Ukrainian forces struck a Russian oil tanker on August 4 with a naval drone in the second attack on Russian ships in the Black Sea in two consecutive days.

Ukrainian officials issued a notice to mariners that Ukraine may strike vessels near Russia’s Black Sea ports – a measured response to continued Russian strikes against Odesa – Ukraine's main port – since July 17.

Ukrainian naval strikes are likely part of a deliberate interdiction campaign aimed at setting favorable conditions for larger counteroffensive operations.

Ukrainian forces continue to draw Russian forces to the Bakhmut area and fix them there despite a slower tempo of Ukrainian operations there.

Ukrainian forces conducted limited ground attacks in southern Ukraine on August 5, part of a continuing pattern of limited Ukrainian ground attacks accompanying Ukrainian efforts to interdict Russian logistics and headquarters in rear areas.

Senior officials from reportedly 40 countries, including the US, China, and India, began talks in Jeddah, Saudi Arabia on August 5 aimed at drafting a set of key principles to guide the future settlement of the war in Ukraine.

Russian forces conducted offensive operations northeast of Kupyansk, along the Svatove-Kreminna line, in the Bakhmut area, along the Avdiivka-Donetsk City front, in the western Donetsk-eastern Zaporizhia Oblast border area, and in western Zaporizhia Oblast and advanced along the Svatove-Kreminna line and the Avdiivka-Donetsk City front.

Ukrainian forces conducted offensive operations along the Svatove-Kreminna line, along the Avdiivka-Donetsk City front, in western Donetsk Oblast, in the western Donetsk-eastern Zaporizhia Oblast border area, and in western Zaporizhia Oblast and advanced along the Svatove-Kremmina line.

Pardoned Wagner Group convict fighters continue to increase recidivism rates in Russia.

Russian officials continue to transport Ukrainian children from occupied regions to Russia under the guise of summer vacations.

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Pardoned Wagner Group convict fighters continue to increase recidivism rates in Russia. Radio Free Europe / Radio Liberty reported on August 5 that Russian police arrested two former convicts who served in Wagner for the murder of six people in a village in the Republic of Karelia on August 3.[64]

An Ossetian military source reported on August 5 that over 12,000 Ossetian men have left the North Ossetia–Alania Republic to fight in Ukraine.[65] The Russian Federal State Statistics Service assesses that about 680,748 residents live in the North Ossetia–Alania Republic as of 2023.[66] The Ossetian source’s claim, if true, means that almost two percent of the entire population of the North Ossetia-Alania Republic has deployed to Ukraine.

Russian forces continue to accumulate large losses from Russia’s war in Ukraine. Dutch open-source group Oryx assessed that Russian forces are visually confirmed to have lost at least 2,203 tanks between February 24, 2022, and August 5, 2023.[67] The BBC reported on August 4 that it was able to confirm the names of 29,217 Russian servicemen killed in action in Ukraine and that the full number of Russian war dead is twice as large.

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This is looking like it may be the Largest Missile Attack by Russia in recent months.

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Which just happens to come on the same day that someone in the UDF posted that they were running low on Patriot missiles. Coincidence? I think not.

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You actually think that you have a better understanding of Ukraine’s military situation than the Ukrainian military and leadership?

I can’t decide if you’re more delusional or narcissistic

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I'm probably narcissistic but not delusional. Every Ukraine bro in here has criticized every move by the Russian military from day one, some fair but some not, were you crying then? Considering Zaluzhny didn't think they were ready for the counteroffensive, no I am not questioning him. Zelensky is a clown though and answers to western leaders who don't give a shite about the lives of Ukrainian soldiers. Go for it though, really looking forward to the liberation of Crimea.

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think Ukraine is another 100 billion away winning this thing

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jUsT PeNnIEs 4 dA dEaD ReDs!!!!!

Good to see you are alive and kicking sir!

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Zelensky is a clown though and answers to western leaders who don't give a shite about the lives of Ukrainian soldiers

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This is one of the most unambiguous statements you have posted, what specifically about Zelensky formed this opinion of him?

Hey Wee, welcome back. Where ya been?

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Zelensky is a clown though and answers to western leaders who don't give a shite about the lives of Ukrainian soldiers.

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Ah, so better he answer to Russia, who doesn't give a shite about the lives of Ukrainians?

And before you try to speal some story about how Russia would care for Ukrainians if they didn't fight back, Russia doesnt even care about Russians, let alone citizens of another sovereign nation.

British Defence Intelligence
INTELLIGENCE UPDATE
UPDATE ON UKRAINE 06 August 2023

The annual celebrations of Russia's Airborne Forces (VDV) Day on 2 August 2023 have been overshadowed by an apparently unsanctioned disclosure of the scope of the casualties the elite force has suffered in Ukraine.

In a recorded address for VDV Day, the VDV's Commander-in-Chief General Colonel Mikhail Teplinsky said that 8500 paratroopers had been wounded and later returned to duty or had refused to leave the front line at all. The video was quickly deleted from the Russian MoD's official channels.

He did not comment on how many troops had been killed or were too seriously wounded to return to duty. However, extrapolating Teplinksy's figures endorses the assessment that at least 50 per cent of the 30,000 paratroopers who deployed to Ukraine in 2022 have been killed or wounded