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Started By
Message
re: Latest Updates: Russia-Ukraine Conflict
Posted on 7/29/23 at 4:35 pm to Hateradedrink
Posted on 7/29/23 at 4:35 pm to Hateradedrink
quote:
quote:
America, UK, and Russia agreed to guarantee Ukraine's sovereignty if they gave up their nuclear weapons. They gave up their nuclear weapons.
That’s actually a great undercurrent here that no one is mentioning.
You can trust America to support you if you give up your nuclear weapons at our request.
You cannot trust Russia.
For some people that was ancient history before they were born. I remember it well. My boss who owned the big video facility I worked for at the time had spent several trips to Russia prior to the collapse of the USSR. A number of high level Russians in media formed a strong bond because they knew the collapse was coming and they wanted to create an American style production facility, ad agency and media company. They did.
Some very interesting stories came out of that situation and those were the connections that I made new network logos for their two TV networks. The new ID's, like you would see for our major news shows, went on the air shortly after Yeltsin came to power. They replaced 1950's style title cards.
Yeltsin's bodyguard for official parties was an animator who had a black belt in Judo and spent a good bit of time with me while I worked on the new network ID's. A few months later the head of all Russian TV was in NY and came by to shake my hand and thank me for the work. I guess it was a big hit and a signal for a better future to come. The guy was built like a barrel.
0
Posted on 7/29/23 at 4:41 pm to BoardReader
quote:
We're not 'wasting the national treasury' fighting this war; our entire efforts, military and non-military to date, are about up to 9 and a half weeks of *yearly* Pentagon spending;
A great many of our allies are now buying or planning to buy a lot of American arms based on their performance in Ukraine. The spending won't be without returns.
Posted on 7/29/23 at 4:44 pm to BoardReader
Bro I’d rather pay for dead Russians than $400 toilet seats on an aircraft carrier
Posted on 7/29/23 at 4:50 pm to GOP_Tiger
quote:
The war in Ukraine is causing all of our Asian allies to massively increase spending, yet some people on this board pretend that US support for Ukraine is endangering our ability to support Taiwan.
Bruh. Just no.
Asia is I creasing and has been increasing its military spending for years in response to China.
Posted on 7/29/23 at 5:01 pm to Auburn1968
quote:
great many of our allies are now buying or planning to buy a lot of American arms based on their performance in Ukraine. The spending won't be without returns
Which ones?
Posted on 7/29/23 at 5:15 pm to GeauxxxTigers23
I believe this is true, but it’s not fair to ask for purchase orders to be adduced at this hour.
And aside from Javelins, Patriot missiles and HIMARS (some of the military experts here can provide a better list), not sure the best US weaponry has been on display.
But, it seems to me likely that the unimpressive performance by Russia and its weapons could create more arm sales than the impressiveness of US arms.
India is watching…
And aside from Javelins, Patriot missiles and HIMARS (some of the military experts here can provide a better list), not sure the best US weaponry has been on display.
But, it seems to me likely that the unimpressive performance by Russia and its weapons could create more arm sales than the impressiveness of US arms.
India is watching…
Posted on 7/29/23 at 6:06 pm to GeauxxxTigers23
quote:
Which ones?
Poland, Australia and India jump to mind.
Posted on 7/29/23 at 6:09 pm to doubleb
quote:
Yet people are insisting that Ukraine agree to a peace deal with Russia as if Ukraine can actually believe Russia would honor any agreement.
Either Ukraine subjugates Russia or this ends with a peace deal, which do you suppose happens?
Ukraine and Russia will have a shared border and this will end at the negotiating table, what is happening right now is simply deciding where the negotiations start.
Posted on 7/29/23 at 6:41 pm to nitwit
quote:
I believe this is true, but it’s not fair to ask for purchase orders to be adduced at this hour.
And aside from Javelins, Patriot missiles and HIMARS (some of the military experts here can provide a better list), not sure the best US weaponry has been on display.
But, it seems to me likely that the unimpressive performance by Russia and its weapons could create more arm sales than the impressiveness of US arms.
India is watching…
Excalibur is another big one.
The real tricky thing here is the cheap drones. A $400 drone with an old armor piercing warhead attached is cheap and effective.
Posted on 7/29/23 at 7:28 pm to WhereisAtlanta
quote:
Either Ukraine subjugates Russia or this ends with a peace deal, which do you suppose happens? Ukraine and Russia will have a shared border and this will end at the negotiating table, what is happening right now is simply deciding where the negotiations start.
Since the border was settled once already I can see this going on fo years, it’s already over nine now.
Ukraine is going to have to be beaten down fir them to settle. They really have few alternatives.
Posted on 7/29/23 at 7:41 pm to doubleb
Exactly. Most are focused on 2022 as the start date and this being a short war that will end quickly. It’s been going on since 2014 and I don’t see it ending without a major collapse on either side.
Posted on 7/29/23 at 7:50 pm to Athanatos
quote:
Poland, Australia and India jump to mind.
What are they buying? When were the deals signed? I mean Poland doesn’t really have a choice, they’re in NATO. Austria has been buying Western equipment forever. India has been shifting more western weapons systems for the past 15 years.
So what are the specifics?
Posted on 7/29/23 at 8:12 pm to GeauxxxTigers23
quote:
Bruh. Just no.
Asia is I creasing and has been increasing its military spending for years in response to China.
It's only within the last two years or so that Japan has really woken up to the fact that, if China invades Taiwan and the US defends Taiwan, that China would certainly strike at US military bases in Japan, which would necessarily bring Japan into the conflict.
Japan very badly would like to stay out of such a war, but Japanese leadership has now accepted that their involvement is likely inevitable.
The war in Ukraine has had a certain clarifying effect on many in Asia who previously believed that economic ties would prevent war, just as Germany has been similarly disabused of such notions.
It's absurd for me to post about Japan doubling its military spending, and for you to respond that this has nothing to do with Ukraine. Ukrainian success in resisting aggression has convinced many of our friends in Asia that Taiwan could indeed prevail in such a conflict with China.
Posted on 7/29/23 at 10:20 pm to GOP_Tiger
ISW Update
quote:
Key Takeaways:
Segments of the Russian pro-war ultranationalist information space appear to be coalescing around a Kremlin narrative effort to portray the Ukrainian counteroffensive as a failure, increasingly overstating Ukrainian losses and writing less about Russia's losses and challenges than they had been.
Select Russian milbloggers may be shaping their depiction of the wider Ukrainian counteroffensive for fear of Kremlin punishment following the arrest of prominent pro-war critic Igor Girkin.
The Kremlin’s ability to establish a more cohesive narrative about the war within the Russian information space remains uncertain, and subsequent Russian failures or significant Ukrainian successes could disrupt the Kremlin’s progress in this effort.
Ukrainian forces conducted counteroffensive operations on at least three sectors of the front and advanced in some areas on July 29.
Ukrainian forces likely targeted Russian military and logistics assets in occupied Crimea on July 28 and 29.
Russian forces conducted a missile strike on Dnipro City, Dnipropetrovsk Oblast on the evening of July 28.
Russian forces conducted offensive operations along the Svatove-Kreminna line and the Avdiivka-Donetsk City line and made claimed advances along the Svatove-Kreminna line.
Ukrainian forces conducted offensive operations along the Svatove-Kreminna line, around Bakhmut, and along the Avdiivka-Donetsk City line and advanced around Bakhmut.
Ukrainian forces conducted offensive operations along the western Donetsk-eastern Zaporizhia Oblast border area and south of Orikhiv and advanced along the western Donetsk-eastern Zaporizhia Oblast border area.
Russian forces conducted offensive operations along the western Donetsk-eastern Zaporizhia Oblast border area and south of Orikhiv but did not make confirmed or claimed advances.
A Ukrainian report indicates that Russian occupation authorities continue crypto-mobilization efforts in occupied Ukraine to replenish losses from combat casualties.
Russian authorities continue to forcibly deport Ukrainian children in occupied Ukraine to Russia under the guise of rest and rehabilitation programs.
Posted on 7/29/23 at 10:43 pm to GOP_Tiger
All of that is your theory. Which I disagree with. None of what you said is fact. Japan started building its military up long before the war. Same with Philippines and Indonesia and even Australia to some extent. I’m sorry, but you’re just wrong.
You shouldn’t have to turn to Asian defense spending anyways to justify spending in Ukraine. There are plenty of reasons to support sending money and arms to Ukraine. You don’t have to make them up.
You shouldn’t have to turn to Asian defense spending anyways to justify spending in Ukraine. There are plenty of reasons to support sending money and arms to Ukraine. You don’t have to make them up.
Posted on 7/29/23 at 11:24 pm to GeauxxxTigers23
Posted on 7/30/23 at 4:08 am to Eurocat
Posted on 7/30/23 at 4:09 am to Eurocat
quote:
?? Polish Prime Minister Mateusz Morawiecki says that more than 100 "Wagnerians" has gone towards the Suwalki Gap connecting Poland with the Baltic States.
According to him, they will be disguised as Belarusian border guards and will help illegal immigrants to enter the country and destabilize the situation in Poland.
Morawiecki called it an "unconditional step" towards a further hybrid attack on Poland
Posted on 7/30/23 at 5:05 am to Jim Rockford
British Defence Intelligence
INTELLIGENCE UPDATE
UPDATE ON UKRAINE 30 July 2023
Since mid-July 2023, at least several thousand Wagner troops have likely established themselves at a military camp at Tsel, in central Belarus. Imagery shows that since mid-July 2023, hundreds of vehicles have arrived at the previously mostly empty facility.
Separate reports suggest most of the visible vehicles are trucks and minibuses with few armoured combat vehicles. It remains unclear what has happened to the heavy equipment Wagner used in Ukraine; there is a realistic possibility that it was forced to return these to the Russian military.
Wagner's ability to secure heavy equipment and enablers such as air transport will be key factors in its future combat effectiveness.
INTELLIGENCE UPDATE
UPDATE ON UKRAINE 30 July 2023
Since mid-July 2023, at least several thousand Wagner troops have likely established themselves at a military camp at Tsel, in central Belarus. Imagery shows that since mid-July 2023, hundreds of vehicles have arrived at the previously mostly empty facility.
Separate reports suggest most of the visible vehicles are trucks and minibuses with few armoured combat vehicles. It remains unclear what has happened to the heavy equipment Wagner used in Ukraine; there is a realistic possibility that it was forced to return these to the Russian military.
Wagner's ability to secure heavy equipment and enablers such as air transport will be key factors in its future combat effectiveness.
Posted on 7/30/23 at 5:25 am to cypher
David Axe, writing in Forbes:
quote:
How many Western-made tanks has Ukraine lost in the first seven weeks of its long-anticipated southern counteroffensive?
That entirely depends on how many damaged tanks the Ukrainians can repair—or get their allies to repair for them. If Kyiv’s forces or friends can fix up every tank analysts have counted as damaged, losses of Leopard 2 tanks might total ... three.
quote:
It’s not all that difficult to immobilize a German Leopard 2, British Challenger 2 or American M-1. It however is hard to destroy one.
Whereas Russian tanks store their shells under their turrets and tend to burst like firecrackers when hit, Western tanks usually keep their ammunition in special compartments designed to vent outward in the event of a secondary explosion. That tends to preserve a damaged vehicle’s overall integrity.
As long as Ukraine has access to repair facilities, its slowly-growing arsenal of European and American tanks should endure. And thanks to a recent agreement between the governments of Poland and Germany, access to facilities is getting easier.
After weeks of dithering, early this week German tank-makers Rheinmetall and Krauss-Maffei Wegmannand Polish holding company Polska Grupa Zbrojeniowa, or PGZ, inked a deal allowing PGZ to repair Ukrainian Leopard 2s.
quote:
Several battle-damaged Ukrainian Leopard 2A4s were already waiting in Poland when the Poles and Germans finally hammered out a compromise. Work on Ukrainian Leopards got underway this week. Polish prime minister Mateusz Morawiecki dropped by the Gliwice factory to commemorate the event.
Photos depict at least four Leopard 2A4s at the PGZ plant. That accounts for all three Leopard 2A4s that the open-source intelligence collective Oryx has confirmed as damaged, plus one 2A4 that escaped notice. The Ukrainian army appears to have lost just one Leopard 2A4 that’s a total write-off.
quote:
All 31 A5/A6s have arrived in Ukraine. And in the two months of the counteroffensive, two A6s have been destroyed and five damaged. No A5/Strv 122s have been hit, as far as outside observers can tell.
In the worst case, the Ukrainians have lost a third of their best Leopard 2s. But only if the five damaged A6s are impossible to repair. No A6s have showed up at the PGZ plant yet, but they may do so soon.
Rheinmetall has plans to set up two more tank repair centers—one in Romania and, eventually, another in Ukraine proper. The United States meanwhile plans to establish a repair facility in Poznan, Poland for the 31 M-1s that should start arriving in Ukraine in September. British firm Babcock is handling Challenger 2 repairs.
By the time all 240 Leopard 1, Leopard 2, M-1 and Challenger 2 tanks reach Ukraine, possibly early next year, there could be as many as five foreign repair centers supporting the fleet.
Given how tough most German, American and British tanks are, and how much damage they usually can absorb without exploding into a million tiny pieces, those five facilities could keep busy, fixing up tanks—possibly more than once—and sending them back to the front line.
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