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re: Latest Updates: Russia-Ukraine Conflict

Posted on 7/20/23 at 12:04 am to
Posted by northshorebamaman
Mackinac Island
Member since Jul 2009
38393 posts
Posted on 7/20/23 at 12:04 am to
quote:

Enough bullshite, we have weapon systems in orbit that can eliminate the entire Russian Black Sea fleet overnight. And there isn’t a GD MF thing they can do about it.

Enough already just take the mfers out
I'm not trying to be rude but I can't figure out if you're a serious poster. One minute I'm agreeing with you and the next minute you want rods from God dropped on the Black Sea.
Posted by GeauxxxTigers23
TeamBunt General Manager
Member since Apr 2013
62514 posts
Posted on 7/20/23 at 12:33 am to
quote:

This declaration by Russia of what amounts to a blockade of Ukrainian ports, could lead to an interesting challenge to the longstanding American policy of freedom of navigation of the seas.


Nah. We may donate some more anti ship missiles but that’s about it. Blockading ports is completely acceptable in a time of war. We would do the same thing.
Posted by northshorebamaman
Mackinac Island
Member since Jul 2009
38393 posts
Posted on 7/20/23 at 1:50 am to
LINK

If nothing else, watch the last 3 minutes. Russian talking head is reduced to bragging that they don't have to pay for Netflix anymore.

Posted by cypher
Member since Sep 2014
5724 posts
Posted on 7/20/23 at 2:41 am to
British Defence Intelligence
INTELLIGENCE UPDATE
UPDATE ON UKRAINE 20 July 2023

On 17 July 2023, Russia failed to renew its involvement in the Black Sea Grain Initiative (BSGI). This effectively nullified the security agreement which, despite the war, had ensured the safe passage of vessels exporting grain from Ukraine. Russia is aiming to deter all merchant shipping from Ukrainian ports.

Russia likely made the decision to leave some time ago because it decided that the deal was no longer serving its interests. Russia has masked this with disinformation, claiming its withdrawal is instead due to concerns that civilian ships are at risk from Ukrainian mines and that Ukraine was making military use of the grain corridor without providing evidence for these claims.

On 19 July 2023, the Russian MoD said it would assume all vessels approaching Ukraine were carrying weapons.

The Russian Black Sea Fleet (BSF) will likely now take a more active role in disrupting any trade which continues. However, BSF blockade operations will be at risk from Ukrainian uncrewed surface vehicles and coastal defence cruise missiles.
Posted by cypher
Member since Sep 2014
5724 posts
Posted on 7/20/23 at 2:44 am to
Russian night attack with Oniks, Kalibr and Iskander missiles: air defence systems destroy 18 targets out of 38

Iryna Balachuk — Thursday, 20 July 2023, 08:54

Ukraine's air defence forces destroyed 18 air targets out of the 38 that the Russian invaders launched over Ukraine on the night of 19-20 July.

Source: Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine on Facebook

Quote: "The occupiers attacked the southern oblasts of Ukraine again on the night of 19-20 July! In this attack, Russian missiles hit Odesa and Mykolaiv. In total, the enemy fired 38 projectiles: 19 cruise missiles and 19 kamikaze drones."

Details: In particular, they launched:

7 Oniks cruise missiles from the Bastion coastal missile system (Crimea);
4 Kh-22 air-based cruise missiles, launched from eight Tu-22M3 aircraft (Black Sea area);
3 Kalibr sea-based cruise missiles, presumably from a submarine (Black Sea area);
5 Iskander-K land-based cruise missiles (Crimea);
19 Shahed-136/131 attack drones from two directions - from the south (Cape Chauda, Crimea) and from the north-east (Kursk, Russia).

Ports, wharves, residential buildings and commercial facilities in Ukraine's south were hit by Russian missiles.

The Air Force managed to destroy 18 air targets:

2 Kalibr sea-based cruise missiles;
3 Iskander-K land-launched cruise missiles;
13 Shahed-136/131 attack drones.

Ukrainska Pravda

This post was edited on 7/20/23 at 2:53 am
Posted by OutsideObserver
Oceania.
Member since Dec 2022
784 posts
Posted on 7/20/23 at 3:34 am to
quote:

Russian night attack with Oniks, Kalibr and Iskander missiles: air defence systems destroy 18 targets out of 38

Iryna Balachuk — Thursday, 20 July 2023, 08:54

Ukraine's air defence forces destroyed 18 air targets out of the 38 that the Russian invaders launched over Ukraine on the night of 19-20 July.

Source: Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine on Facebook

Quote: "The occupiers attacked the southern oblasts of Ukraine again on the night of 19-20 July! In this attack, Russian missiles hit Odesa and Mykolaiv. In total, the enemy fired 38 projectiles: 19 cruise missiles and 19 kamikaze drones."

Details: In particular, they launched:

7 Oniks cruise missiles from the Bastion coastal missile system (Crimea);
4 Kh-22 air-based cruise missiles, launched from eight Tu-22M3 aircraft (Black Sea area);
3 Kalibr sea-based cruise missiles, presumably from a submarine (Black Sea area);
5 Iskander-K land-based cruise missiles (Crimea);
19 Shahed-136/131 attack drones from two directions - from the south (Cape Chauda, Crimea) and from the north-east (Kursk, Russia).

Ports, wharves, residential buildings and commercial facilities in Ukraine's south were hit by Russian missiles.

The Air Force managed to destroy 18 air targets:

2 Kalibr sea-based cruise missiles;
3 Iskander-K land-launched cruise missiles;
13 Shahed-136/131 attack drones.



Not a good night for Ukraine AD for a second night, seems they are getting stretched well and truly at the moment around Odessa, though this also gives a bit more credence to Ukrainian claims of stopping most strikes up north where the AD is more concentrated and they have usually have more reaction time.

0/7 Oniks
0/4 Kh-22
3/5 Iskander
2/3 Kalibr
13/19 Drones

I don't recollect Russia using the Oniks much before but in the past 2 days Ukraine has had no luck in stopping them, though this may be a case of having to prioritise engaging the larger Iskander, Kalibr and Kh-22 payloads with limited air defences, which is why Russia is using the Oniks now to glut the target zone.

Edit: Good thread from OSINTtechnical on the Oniks, apparently they were used briefly before the initiation of the BSGI and only out of Sevastopol.

https://twitter.com/Osinttechnical/status/1681827705241628673


This post was edited on 7/20/23 at 4:06 am
Posted by OutsideObserver
Oceania.
Member since Dec 2022
784 posts
Posted on 7/20/23 at 4:06 am to
The Swedish names sound way cooler, though for comms reasons, aren't the most efficient

Posted by Obtuse1
Westside Bodymore Yo
Member since Sep 2016
30652 posts
Posted on 7/20/23 at 5:40 am to
quote:


I think it’s a bit more complicated because while the treaty gives Turkey control over access to the Black Sea, it also imposes fairly strict limitations on passage of military vessels - particularly from non-Black Sea nations.


It also has limitations on Russian military vessels.

The Kuznetsov while clearly a carrier has missile capabilities which allows Russia to classify it as a heavy aircraft carrying cruiser that lets them pass through the Turkish Straits. If it weren't for this distinction it would never have been able to leave the Black Sea where it was built. Which in retrospect wouldn't really make much difference given its issues.
Posted by StormyMcMan
USA
Member since Oct 2016
4691 posts
Posted on 7/20/23 at 6:24 am to
quote:

The Kremlin has stated today that the recent decision by the Polish Military to Buildup its Forces near the Border with Belarus due to the Deployment of Wagner PMC Trainers onto Belarusian Territory is a “Major Cause for Concern” that they are Closely Observing.

LINK

quote:

At the Brestsky training ground, joint training sessions were held between the fighters of the Wagner PMC and the military personnel of the SOF of the Republic of Belarus.

LINK

quote:

?? Training of Ukrainian troops can gradually be transferred from Europe to Ukraine.

This is reported by Sueddeutsche Zeitung with reference to the statement of the EU's chief diplomat Josep Borrell.

According to the publication, this will probably happen only after the end of the war.




LINK

quote:

In the battles near #Krasnohorivka, a #Russian military man, Z-volunteer and author of the channel "Misha in Donbass", Mikhail Luchin, was eliminated. He became famous after being hacked by #Ukrainian hackers, who used the money he raised for drones for the Russian army to order dildos for him.

LINK
Posted by DabosDynasty
Member since Apr 2017
5180 posts
Posted on 7/20/23 at 6:31 am to
quote:

Consider the possibility that NATO says it will provide escort to grain ships transiting the black sea to Odesa. This would give Turkey some political and military cover, they wouldn't have to participate, and they would only have to allow NATO ships to transit through.

Would Russia risk bringing NATO into the war? Does NATO have the balls to call Russia's bluff?


Imo Turkey is a NATO country. Their proclamation here: escort and protect merchant grain ships from Ukraine through the Black Sea for global trade, is done having the support of NATO in retaliation to aggression from Russia should they get froggy over it.

Their original proclamation was the easiest and most efficient solution that doesn’t require any violation or creative enforcement of any treaty. They’re just completely selfish and chicken shite. The dumbest part is it really is a detriment to their own self interests and ambitions.
Posted by GOP_Tiger
Baton Rouge
Member since Jan 2005
21024 posts
Posted on 7/20/23 at 6:38 am to
quote:

There were initial reports that Turkey was going to offer escort of the ships if the BSGI was not renewed however nothing was officially stated that I saw.



Worth noting that almost all of that chatter was based on a trash post from Igor Shusko, who has repeatedly lied for clicks, and who yet has a massive following, because he tells people what they want to hear.
Posted by StormyMcMan
USA
Member since Oct 2016
4691 posts
Posted on 7/20/23 at 6:39 am to
quote:

Ukrainian Air Force Speaker Yurii Ihnat explained why the air defense failed to destroy any of the 7 "Onyx" missiles.

According to him, the Ukrainian Defense Forces have not yet been able to shoot them down. "Onyx" missile flies at a speed of more than 3000 km per hour. When entering the target missile can fly at an altitude of 10-15 m above water. It is difficult to fight with such missiles.

LINK

quote:

As a result of the russian night attack on Odesa, the building of the Consulate General of China was damaged.

Oleh Kiper, the head of Odesa RMA, announced this.

"The aggressor is deliberately hitting the port infrastructure - the surrounding administrative and residential buildings were damaged," Kiper writes.


LINK

quote:

The #UnitedStates may impose sanctions against #Kyrgyzstan in order to stop the supply of sub-sanctioned goods to #Russia. The restrictions could be adopted as early as this week.

Kyrgyzstan's special services have promised to conduct a check:

"The State Committee for National Security of Kyrgyzstan admits the possible involvement of private companies and firms, which as part of their business and production activities may have been involved in violations of the sanctions restrictions, possibly without knowing who may actually be the end consumer," an official statement said.

Since the beginning of the war, Kyrgyzstan, despite its ostensible neutrality, has been providing serious support to Russia, including in circumventing sanctions. Dual-use goods and other sanctioned goods are smuggled into Russia through this country, which are then used for the needs of the Russian military industry.

Kyrgyzstan also prosecutes and extradites anti-war activists who left Russia, and President Sadyr #Zhaparov visited #Putin for a parade.

According to public documents, exports from Kyrgyzstan to Russia increased 250% in 2022 compared to the previous year. The country's authorities cannot explain what such an impressive growth is related to.

LINK

quote:

It's gone midnight in Moscow. Russia have claimed they will now treat any ship approaching Ukrainian ports as potentially supplying weapons. A Cameroonian flagged vessel is still heading towards Ukraine.

LINK

quote:

The Russian statement to attack civilian shipping going to any Ukrainian port can be add to the long list of poorly thought out Russian plans.

Ships going to the port of Izmail, Ukraine have to sail up through the Danube River on the border with Romania.

So either Russia starts attacking shipping mixed in with shipping going to Gala?i, Romania while also risking attacking ships in Romanian waters

Or

They again have to move their “Red Line” and say that it is in fact all Ukrainian ports except Izmail.

As the bad excuse for their statement was that they would consider all ships to be “potential carriers of military cargo”, this means Russia is only scared of military cargo being unloaded specifically at the grain terminal in Odesa and not just down the road in Izmail.

While Izmail is a small port and can’t take over Odesa’s grain transport, I don’t think Russia has the balls to attack a port less than 300m from the border to a NATO country.

I don’t think even the Russians trust their own PGM enough for that.


LINK


Eta

quote:

Pictured: Cargo vessels flying the flags of Vanuatu, Panama, and Togo entering the Danube river on the border of Ukraine and Romania en-route to the Ukrainian port of Izmail. Russian threats of assuming they're transporting weapons working well obviously.

LINK
This post was edited on 7/20/23 at 6:43 am
Posted by StormyMcMan
USA
Member since Oct 2016
4691 posts
Posted on 7/20/23 at 6:47 am to
Sorry lots of interesting tweets posting this morning

quote:

Representatives of Wagner PMC revealed how many people were recruited to participate in the special military operation in Ukraine and what losses they suffered:

??78,000 mercenaries passed through the Ukrainian mission in total - One of the PMC commanders, Chief of Staff "Marx"

?? 49,000 of them are prisoners from various penal colonies of the Russian Federation.

??22,000 mercenaries were killed as of May 20, and 40,000 were wounded.

??"There are 25,000 left alive and well, plus the wounded and those undergoing treatment. Up to 10,000 of them have left and are leaving for Belarus," "Marx" said.

LINK

quote:

BREAKING: Ukraine has begun firing U.S.-provided cluster munitions against Russian forces in southeastern Ukraine, according to Ukrainian officials familiar with the matter - WaPo

LINK

quote:

??Putin listed the conditions for the return of Russia to the "grain agreement".

??All obstacles to Russian banks and financial institutions serving food and fertilizer supplies should be removed;

??Immediate Connection to the International Bank Payment System SWIFT

??withdrawing from the sanctions the supply of Russian grain, fertilizer to world markets, as well as the resumption of supplies of spare parts and components for agricultural machinery and fertilizer industry to Russia;

??Solving all issues with insurance of Russian ships and export deliveries of the Russian Federation, restoration of all logistics of food supplies, provision of unobstructed supply of fertilizers from Russia and raw materials for their production.

LINK
Posted by GOP_Tiger
Baton Rouge
Member since Jan 2005
21024 posts
Posted on 7/20/23 at 6:56 am to
Washington Post:

quote:

ZAPORIZHZHIA REGION, Ukraine — The Ukrainian commander of the Bradley infantry fighting vehicle was unloading troops at the front and then planned to transport three injured soldiers back to a field hospital. “But in that one minute, you suddenly have 30, 40, 50 shells flying in — everything explodes, soil is flying around, everything lights up,” said the commander, who asked to be identified by his call sign, CZ, in keeping with Ukrainian military protocol.
quote:

CZ’s vehicle is now nestled in a wooded area in Ukraine’s southeastern Zaporizhzhia region, one of several secret locations near the front line where the 47th Mechanized Brigade rushes to repair its new Western weaponry.

The 47th Brigade, the only unit known to have received the Bradleys, was set to get 99 before the start of the counteroffensive, according to leaked U.S. intelligence documents. The United States has committed 190 Bradleys overall, with more than half delivered to operational units in Ukraine, said the official, who spoke on the condition of anonymity because of the sensitivity of the issue.



Personnel from Ukraine’s 47th Mechanized Brigade prepare to change wheels and tracks of a damaged Bradley Fighting Vehicle at the Zaporizhzhia workshop.



Troops from the 47th have a lunch of borscht after working on Bradley Fighting Vehicles at the Zaporizhzhia workshop.

quote:

In some cases, Ukrainian units are “just not using them to their fullest potential with all their other assets that they have available,” the official said. It could be that some commanders feel more comfortable with how they were originally taught and fall back on that experience, the official said.
quote:

Some Bradley repairs can take just a few hours. Others need a few days. Some vehicles are labeled “donors,” meaning the Ukrainians will strip out the usable parts to install in other, less-damaged Bradleys and then fill the donor vehicle with the broken bits before shipping it off for a larger-scale repair at the facility in Poland. One early limitation for how quickly the Ukrainians can fix the Bradleys and get them back on the battlefield: not enough spare parts, military personnel said.

Any request for spare parts has to be made formally to a senior commander, who has a limited reserve and multiple units that need them. An American M109A6 Paladin self-propelled howitzer is currently not in use by the 47th Brigade because of a mechanical issue that the soldiers do not yet have the parts to fix.

The U.S. official was unaware of issues that affected the delivery of parts from U.S. stocks and suggested bottlenecks could exist within the Ukrainian supply chain.

“When the first Bradleys came in for repairs, the decision of, ‘Is this one a donor or not’ wasn’t being made yet,” said the chief of staff for the 47th Brigade’s repair and recovery battalion, whose call sign is Maz. “So where do we get the spare parts from? When the donors started appearing from which we could take the spare parts, then we started fully repairing them. But before donors, we were just doing minimal repairs and waiting for others to be damaged.”

The fewer vehicles that have to be sent to Poland for major repairs, the “more lives saved,” Maz said, because troops cannot afford to wait weeks for a Bradley to return to the front line. Training at a U.S. base in Germany earlier this year taught Maz and others from the 47th not just how to operate the Bradleys but also how to fix them.

“When I chose my crew, I made sure that the ones I picked loved technical equipment,” Maz said. “A tractor driver who has worked on the fields, or a trucker, who lives this stuff. I sometimes give them so much s--- for their work. I tell them, ‘This is like your house, you should be able to sit there in slippers.’”




quote:

Fewer than a dozen Bradleys have been sent to Poland for repair, the U.S. defense official said, and in some cases fresh vehicles were sent to replace those shipped out instead of waiting on repairs.



A mechanic from the 47th takes a lunchtime nap on tracks alongside a damaged Bradley.
Posted by GOP_Tiger
Baton Rouge
Member since Jan 2005
21024 posts
Posted on 7/20/23 at 7:01 am to
LINK

quote:

Thunderstorms in Odesa right now, after the last few nights, is really poor timing. Surely going to terrify half the city. They sound exactly like explosions.
Posted by CitizenK
BR
Member since Aug 2019
16110 posts
Posted on 7/20/23 at 7:26 am to
quote:

Pictured: Cargo vessels flying the flags of Vanuatu, Panama, and Togo entering the Danube river on the border of Ukraine and Romania en-route to the Ukrainian port of Izmail. Russian threats of assuming they're transporting weapons working well obviously.


When I looked at a satellite view of the port and river, no grain elevators there. There are rafts of river barges like we see on the Missisippi River so any grain is likely loaded via barge midstream loading operation. Most ships are not what is normal size for transocean voyage, but small and general type for Black Sea trade. This makes me think of the miniship shipping which the Greeks had hundreds of. Two cargo holds, two hatches. Twin screw diesel engines without need for an tug boat assist in port. 12 foot draft so popular for bulk cargo going up South American and some African rivers. They traveled at under 10 knots. The crews were 5 men so captain also functioned as chief mate.
Posted by StormyMcMan
USA
Member since Oct 2016
4691 posts
Posted on 7/20/23 at 7:30 am to
quote:

BREAKING: Ukraine's Defence Ministry says that it may consider all ships travelling to Russian and Ukrainian ports occupied by Russia as potential carriers of military cargoes from midnight on July 21 "with all the associated risks"

LINK
Posted by OutsideObserver
Oceania.
Member since Dec 2022
784 posts
Posted on 7/20/23 at 7:31 am to
quote:

Putin listed the conditions for the return of Russia to the "grain agreement".

All obstacles to Russian banks and financial institutions serving food and fertilizer supplies should be removed;

Immediate Connection to the International Bank Payment System SWIFT

Withdrawing from the sanctions the supply of Russian grain, fertilizer to world markets, as well as the resumption of supplies of spare parts and components for agricultural machinery and fertilizer industry to Russia;

Solving all issues with insurance of Russian ships and export deliveries of the Russian Federation, restoration of all logistics of food supplies, provision of unobstructed supply of fertilizers from Russia and raw materials for their production.


That's an interesting set of conditions if true.
Posted by Chromdome35
Fast lane, behind a slow driver
Member since Nov 2010
8182 posts
Posted on 7/20/23 at 7:36 am to
This is how you know the sanctions are hurting, Russia is using whatever leverage it can get to try to remove them.

ETA: they are probably willing to settle for only one of these.
This post was edited on 7/20/23 at 7:38 am
Posted by AGGIES
Member since Jul 2021
12595 posts
Posted on 7/20/23 at 8:03 am to
I was surprised to hear about the idea of Turkey escorting ships. Sounds out of character for them.
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