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Message
re: Latest Updates: Russia-Ukraine Conflict
Posted on 7/19/23 at 6:40 pm to LSUPilot07
Posted on 7/19/23 at 6:40 pm to LSUPilot07
quote:
Ok y’all sorry but I’ve been nonstop at work and haven’t had time to keep up. I looked and there’s been 30+ pages since I last looked. Really don’t want to read all that if I dont have to. Can someone give me the CliffsNotes on what’s been happening? I really appreciate it.
Unless something has drastically changed in the last 48 hours, it’s still for all intents and purposes a stalemate reminiscent of WWI.
0
Posted on 7/19/23 at 6:51 pm to LSUPilot07
Cliffs:
1) Ukraine continues to make steady progress around Bakhmut, on both the northern and southern flanks. Ukraine is very close to taking Klischiivka (south of the city), which would open up the southern flank of the city for further advances.
2) Ukrainian progress in the South has slowed. Ukraine moved into the northern part of Staromaiorske two days ago, but that's the first settlement that might change hands in about two weeks. As cluster munitions get distributed around the front, perhaps Ukraine will begin a bigger push.
3) A Russian counterattack pushed west from Kreminna to Torske. It's only captured some forest so far, but the loss of Torske would be bad for Ukraine, as they would have difficulty
4) Ukraine hit the road section of the Kerch Bridge with naval drones disguised as jetskis. The bridge won't be repaired for a two months. Right now, Russian engineers are allowing one lane to stay open for cars (no trucks).
5) The grain deal expired, and Russia unleashed a massive attack on Odessa the last two days, reportedly destroying 60,000 tons of grain, and completely wrecking much of the port. Russia has declared that any vessel approaching Odessa will be considered to be an enemy vessel.
I think that sums up the last week or so.
1) Ukraine continues to make steady progress around Bakhmut, on both the northern and southern flanks. Ukraine is very close to taking Klischiivka (south of the city), which would open up the southern flank of the city for further advances.
2) Ukrainian progress in the South has slowed. Ukraine moved into the northern part of Staromaiorske two days ago, but that's the first settlement that might change hands in about two weeks. As cluster munitions get distributed around the front, perhaps Ukraine will begin a bigger push.
3) A Russian counterattack pushed west from Kreminna to Torske. It's only captured some forest so far, but the loss of Torske would be bad for Ukraine, as they would have difficulty
4) Ukraine hit the road section of the Kerch Bridge with naval drones disguised as jetskis. The bridge won't be repaired for a two months. Right now, Russian engineers are allowing one lane to stay open for cars (no trucks).
5) The grain deal expired, and Russia unleashed a massive attack on Odessa the last two days, reportedly destroying 60,000 tons of grain, and completely wrecking much of the port. Russia has declared that any vessel approaching Odessa will be considered to be an enemy vessel.
I think that sums up the last week or so.
Posted on 7/19/23 at 7:10 pm to GOP_Tiger
I thought Turkey pledged to protect ships going to Ukrainian ports for grain? I guess that was all bullshite. I’d love to know how freely Russian aircraft are being allowed to fly and would Turkey respond if one of those aircraft attacked or a missile launched on a ship leaving Ukraine. I still haven’t seen the first Challenger tank, Stryker vehicle or CV90 appear on the field yet. I wonder if they are waiting on the Abrams to arrive before they deploy the rest of those vehicles.
Posted on 7/19/23 at 7:15 pm to AnotherWin4LSU
quote:
I have lived in Ukraine and even if it makes significant in roads with corruption it will still not be enough. As a someone who lived in Ukraine I will be shocked if they actually make headway with their corruption. Ukraine is less corrupt than Russia but still the level of corruption over there is incomprehensible for ppl in the USA.
How long ago and for how long did you live there?
Corruption is sadly part of any institutional or governmental body where decision making power accumulates. The tricky part is having enough transparent and adequate checks and balances to keep it in out in the open and under control, and this generally relies on there being enough public demand to make it a political necessity.
Most of my reading of history regarding Russia, and to a lesser extent many former USSR members, shows there has been several different periods of significant accumulation of very centralised power with little transparency or checks. Couple this with public apathy (though this is at least partially conditioned into the populace) to rectify it and you have the recipe for fairly broad excesses of accepted corruption.
Edit: Clarity
This post was edited on 7/19/23 at 8:31 pm
Posted on 7/19/23 at 7:17 pm to LSUPilot07
quote:
I thought Turkey pledged to protect ships going to Ukrainian ports for grain? I guess that was all bull shite. I’d love to know how freely Russian aircraft are being allowed to fly and would Turkey respond if one of those aircraft attacked or a missile launched on a ship leaving Ukraine. I still haven’t seen the first Challenger tank, Stryker vehicle or CV90 appear on the field yet. I wonder if they are waiting on the Abrams to arrive before they deploy the rest of those vehicles.
They’ve reneged.
Posted on 7/19/23 at 7:19 pm to AnotherWin4LSU
quote:
Ukraine is less corrupt than Russia but still the level of corruption over there is incomprehensible for ppl in the USA.
You think we're so innocent?
Posted on 7/19/23 at 7:21 pm to GeauxxxTigers23
One of the things is Russia has multiple times the people Ukraine does, and they have no qualm about throwing all of them in a meat grinder.
This post was edited on 7/19/23 at 7:32 pm
Posted on 7/19/23 at 7:24 pm to riverdiver
quote:
Yet you’re ok with us prolonging this war and killing Russians.
Why is the West so hell bent on refusing to negotiate an end to the killing?
because the god-damned russians invaded, and we saw how that shite works out in wwii; you don't reward or appease invaders;
Posted on 7/19/23 at 7:29 pm to GOP_Tiger
quote:
Our money is destroying Russian equipment at a very good rate and weakening a strategic enemy.
It's a poor direction for Russia to take when they could have peacefully warmed up to the West and built a fine business as a market bridge between East and West. However, Putin wanted to play games of empire from days gone by.
Posted on 7/19/23 at 7:35 pm to Auburn1968
Correct Auburn, they should have worked to become our friend-enemies and played China and the USA off each other and been the middle man. That was the play the smart KGBs guys recommended but was ignored by the ego maniac
Posted on 7/19/23 at 7:44 pm to TutHillTiger
The west never wanted Russia to be in the click, that would mean another group would need a cut of the corruption pie. They are too big to control, unlike Ukraine that is easy to afford and keep under your thumb.
Posted on 7/19/23 at 7:55 pm to DabosDynasty
And shite like that is why Turkey is only getting new F-16 block 70s and not F-35s like they originally wanted. They are clearly in bed with Russia and just trying to that fence line as long as he can without choosing sides.
Posted on 7/19/23 at 8:07 pm to SirWinston
quote:preach brother. america is literally the most corrupt country in the world.
You think we're so innocent?
just look at our so called election
This post was edited on 7/19/23 at 8:08 pm
Posted on 7/19/23 at 8:11 pm to WestCoastAg
quote:
preach brother. america is literally the most corrupt country in the world.
And yet, here you are.
Posted on 7/19/23 at 8:17 pm to BayouBlitz
Wca is definitely making fun of that cuck
Posted on 7/19/23 at 8:23 pm to TigerFanatic99
quote:
Honestly the answer is never. We're too deep in this to take a loss and go home. Whether we like it or not, we'll send Ukraine a trillion in money and gear if that what it takes to break Russia. This is the space race 2.0. We never gave a shite about going to the moon, that was just a good excuse to bleed the soviet Union dry trying to compete with us.
Agreed. Even if there is a cease fire tomorrow, our support isn’t ending. We would just find ourselves in a Korean truce situation where our continued support and resources keep the conflict cold.
The alternative is to just walk away, wipe our hands clean, and let Russia do what it wants with Ukraine. Hard to argue against that as it would end the killing of Ukrainians immediately. After all, Russian occupation has never resulted in the mass death and destruction of the occupied.
Posted on 7/19/23 at 8:26 pm to LSUPilot07
quote:
I thought Turkey pledged to protect ships going to Ukrainian ports for grain? I guess that was all bull shite. I’d love to know how freely Russian aircraft are being allowed to fly and would Turkey respond if one of those aircraft attacked or a missile launched on a ship leaving Ukraine.
There were highly unsubstantiated claims that Turkey was going to offer escort to ships if the BSGI was not renewed, nothing was officially stated that I saw.
Once Ukraine hit the Kerch bridge and Russia got a little...emotional.. over it with two days of massed strikes on the Odessan port primarily used for loading the grain Turkey quickly vetoed any chance of escort duties happening, as did other NATO nations.
There were claims that Bulgaria and Romania would offer transit through their waters but Russia has since declared any maritime vessels approaching the Ukrainian ports will be fired upon, so these may now be moot.
While more instinct than any hard evidence I can point to, I do have the impression that Russia is reacting exactly how Ukraine and, by extension of advice, NATO wanted them to over the Kerch bridge.
The timing of the strike, the end of the BSIG, Turkeys flip on escorting vessels, and Russia's subsequent reaction all point Russia being goaded into making poor long term decisions.
This is likely brought on by the need to be seen taking strong, powerful decisions and actions following the recent internal dissension, despite how minor Russia wants it to appear, to quell further issues.
One thing I identified in regards to Russia prior to this conflict (and the belief of which has strengthened since) is that Russians respect and require visible power in their leaders, so long as their leaders at least present the image of this then the populace will by and large accept excesses and tribulations many Western countries would not.
Nor do I think Russia is unaware of the situation but this is an example of having to play the cards you hold, rather than the cards you want.
Ukraine certainly seems to get this and understands that undermining it is a key component in their chances of achieving a favourable outcome as evidenced by their provocative targeting of Russian military apparatus and symbols of power over the course of the war.
The oscillations in Russia's reactions to these provocations seems to be increasing and are now creating the potential to isolate them from allied and neutral parties, something Russia can ill afford.
This does raise the question what the subsequent repercussions would look like if Russia reacts to military defeat and/or internal pressure by falling apart, but that is a whole other discussion more at home on the PB.
quote:
I still haven’t seen the first Challenger tank, Stryker vehicle or CV90 appear on the field yet. I wonder if they are waiting on the Abrams to arrive before they deploy the rest of those vehicles.
There has been plenty of footage of those platforms claiming to be in theatre, just not in combat. The rough consensus is that they are in reserve to take advantage once Soviet defence lines are weakened, or possibly as a counter to a Soviet counter on the northern front, though thus far this has been relatively small scale with claims of large numbers of equipment and troops.
Edit: Clarity.
This post was edited on 7/20/23 at 3:42 pm
Posted on 7/19/23 at 9:05 pm to TigerFanatic99
95% of Ukrainians want Russia pushed completely back to 1991 borders. Stop with the fake claims.
Posted on 7/19/23 at 9:08 pm to SteelerBravesDawg
quote:
Your tranny lover is calling you.
Maybe SirWinston is the tranny.
Posted on 7/19/23 at 9:19 pm to Hateradedrink
ISW Update
quote:
Key Takeaways:
Russian forces launched an extensive missile and drone attack against port and grain infrastructure in southern Ukraine on July 19 likely to further emphasize Russia’s objections to the renewal of the Black Sea grain deal and hinder Ukraine’s ability to export grain.
The South African Presidential Office announced that Russian President Vladimir Putin will not attend the BRICS summit in-person in Johannesburg in August 2023.
An explosion at a Russian training ground in occupied Kirovskyi Raion (Islam Terek Raion), southeastern Crimea, disrupted the Russian use of the Tavrida highway that connects eastern Crimea to Sevastopol on July 19.
Ukrainian forces conducted counteroffensive operations on at least three sectors of the front on July 19 and made gains in these areas.
Wagner Group financier Yevgeniy Prigozhin and reportedly Wagner Commander Dmitry Utkin greeted Wagner fighters at the new Wagner base near Asipovichy, Belarus, on July 18.
Russian sources claimed that Wagner will continue to operate abroad in African countries, although Prigozhin’s involvement in these activities remains unclear.
Russian President Vladimir Putin continues to display his knowledge of Russian history at odd moments, this time appearing to warn against the possibility of revolution in Russia.
Russian authorities opened a case against an affiliate of the ultranationalist Angry Patriots Club for discrediting Russian forces, prompting the Angry Patriots Club to make explicit demands of Russian officials.
Ukrainian forces continued offensive operations in the Kupyansk area, near Kreminna, in the Bakhmut area, and along the Avdiivka-Donetsk City front and made gains near Bakhmut.
Russian forces continued offensive operations along the Kupyansk-Svatove-Kreminna line, in the Bakhmut area, along the Avdiivka-Donetsk City front, and in the western Donetsk-eastern Zaporizhia oblast area. They made marginal gains along the Avdiivka-Donetsk City front and reportedly made limited advances in the western Donetsk-eastern Zaporizhia oblast area.
Ukrainian forces continued counteroffensive operations in the western Donetsk-eastern Zaporizhia area and western Zaporizhia Oblast and made reportedly made gains in both sectors of the front.
The Russian State Duma adopted on July 19 a law on the first reading and “in general” that allows the Russian National Guard (Rosgvardia) to have heavy military equipment.
The Ukrainian Crimean-based “Atesh” partisan group conducted another successful attack on a Russian military convoy in occupied Kherson Oblast on July 14.
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