re: Latest Updates: Russia-Ukraine Conflict

I think, overall, this war will end up being a combined arms clinic.

You need air superiority to execute any meaningful offense in conventional warfare (state vs. state).

Russia can’t meaningfully move beyond territory they took before UA got their shite together and UA can’t meaningfully retake territory because they can’t efficiently degrade ability.

If UA doesn’t move the needle by the end of the year, Im in favor of moving towards a negotiated peace. Not because of the expense or anything like that but because it would be a pointless stalemate.

I have a feeling this is why you haven’t seen UA commit more reserves and western equipment. They wanted to poke and prod to see if they could get lucky and Russia would roll over but that didn’t happen.

They may be saving western equipment as a “defense” deterrent to levy in negotiations.

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The US military faced off against that same wagner in syria and we wiped the floor with them. It was no contest. 0 US casualties.

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I love reading the articles and hearing stories about that skirmish. We fricked them up completely

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Why is the West so hell bent on refusing to negotiate an end to the killing?

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Why doesn’t russia simply leave? They could end the killing today.

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Why doesn’t russia simply leave? They could end the killing today

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Well, Russia has no interest in stopping the killing.

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It’s concerning no?

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I posted this response when you asked this question recently

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I freely admit, I expected the offensive to be more productive than it has been to date; however, now that I've seen what has occurred so far, I have the following thoughts:

1) Lack of air superiority is a much bigger factor than I anticipated, I thought they could compensate with drones.

2) I said in the thread a couple of months ago that the minefields would be the biggest challenge to the offensive, this appears to be true.

3) Ukraine gave Russia too much time to prepare its defense. I understand why they gave that time but it is proving to be a costly trade.

4) The hard punch hasn't come yet, so far we've seen Ukraine put pressure on Russia across the entire frontline, certain areas like Bakhmut have shown good forward movement, but others haven't moved so much. All of it together serves to soften Russia and give Ukraine intelligence on where to launch their hard attack.

5) I have said that Ukraine has the luxury of time and I still believe that; however, Ukraine MUST show some significant progress before winter or it risks softening support from the West.

6) I think it's time to give Ukraine what they need to win the war (long-range weapons and air power). Provide them with the tools to get the job done and end this.

7) Russia is a shite show, they are a frick up walking around looking for a place to happen.

8) This war has absolutely shown that stockpiles of munitions are woefully inadequate. In a full-blown war with China or Russia, the US would be hurting for ammo (across all weapon systems) within a fairly short period of time.

9) This war has also shown that the current manufacturing capacity for weapon systems like tanks, airplanes, etc...is not capable of sustaining a major conflict.

10) If Ukraine doesn't make any significant gains in 2023, I think we'll see a real push for a negotiated settlement.

11) If it comes to a negotiated settlement, I've been wondering if Ukraine would accept giving up some of its land in exchange for NATO membership...Thus securing them from future Russian ambitions.

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Why is the West so hell bent on refusing to negotiate an end to the killing?

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What’s funny? England and the US (at a minimum) have shot down talk of a peace agreement.

No they haven’t. And don’t link that garbage that’s been posted 100 times about some halfassed plan Russia sad they might be willing to agree to

Minister: Russian strikes destroy 60,000 tons of grain

by Elsa Court and The Kyiv Independent news desk July 19, 2023 6:32 PM

Russian attacks on port infrastructure in Odesa Oblast have destroyed 60,000 tons of grain, according to Ukrainian Agriculture Minister Mykola Solskyi on July 19.

"This is a terrorist act not against Ukraine, but against the whole world," he stated. "If we cannot export food, then the population of the poorest countries will be on the verge of survival."

Solskyi referred to destruction in the port of Chornomorsk, an important Black Sea export hub to the south of the city of Odesa. The area came under heavy Russian strikes during the previous night, Governor Oleh Kiper reported, with air defense shooting down eight drones and at least one missile.

It was the second consecutive strike against Odesa in the past two days. On July 18, Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov referred to the attacks as retaliation for the explosions that damaged the Crimean Bridge on July 17.

We talked about this package two days ago, when it was first linked, but it's official now: LINK

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The capabilities in this announcement, which totals $1.3 billion, include:

- Four National Advanced Surface-to-Air Missile Systems (NASAMS) and munitions;
- 152mm artillery rounds;
- Mine clearing equipment;
- Tube-Launched, Optically-Tracked, Wire-Guided (TOW) missiles;
- Phoenix Ghost and Switchblade Unmanned Aerial Systems (UAS)- ;
- Precision aerial munitions;
- Counter-UAS and electronic warfare detection equipment;
- 150 fuel trucks;
- 115 tactical vehicles to tow and haul equipment;
- 50 tactical vehicles to recover equipment;
- Port and harbor security equipment;
- Tactical secure communications systems;
- Support for training, maintenance, and sustainment activities.

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