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Message
re: Latest Updates: Russia-Ukraine Conflict
Posted on 7/9/23 at 5:52 pm to Jim Rockford
Posted on 7/9/23 at 5:52 pm to Jim Rockford
quote:
BREAKING: The Turkish Navy will protect ships from the Russian Navy in the Black Sea corridor even if Putin withdraws from the "grain deal." According to Ukrainian sources, Türkiye confirmed this commitment to Ukraine. ?
I take anything Igor Sushko posts with a tonne of salt till other sources report the same. Likes to make stuff up for clicks/propaganda in my view.
As yet I have not seen this being reported by any reliable source which lends to it being bollocks since it is fairly significant news.
https://twitter.com/exit266 has been following the details of the grain deal closely so is a good check against new information about it.
Edit: Clarity
This post was edited on 7/9/23 at 5:55 pm
0
Posted on 7/9/23 at 5:52 pm to nitwit
Turkey also wants F-16s. Being on the U.S./Ukraine good side will help that happen as well.
They and China have become adept at doing what's best for them.
They and China have become adept at doing what's best for them.
Posted on 7/9/23 at 5:52 pm to CitizenK
If 'somebody' can blow up an undersea pipeline, scuttling a ship in the Dardanelles would be child's play. How wide is the channel?
Posted on 7/9/23 at 6:06 pm to jefffan
quote:
Turkey also wants F-16s. Being on the U.S./Ukraine good side will help that happen as well.
Turkey has had F-16s since 1983, we have already provided them with F-35s.
This post was edited on 7/9/23 at 6:07 pm
Posted on 7/9/23 at 6:23 pm to Jim Rockford
It's too deep to matter
Posted on 7/9/23 at 6:33 pm to WhereisAtlanta
Reports of an attack by Russia towards Avdiivka in the past few days which was repulsed with fairly significant equipment losses. It appears they still have some stuff to throw around if they are willing to commit to these sorts of offensive actions.
https://twitter.com/NOELreports/status/1678028987199619073 - Video
https://twitter.com/bayraktar_1love/status/1678005555791646720
https://twitter.com/Arvelleg1/status/1678009459765903361
Edit: Fixed broken link
https://twitter.com/NOELreports/status/1678028987199619073 - Video
quote:
The 110th mechanized brigade shared footage of a failed Russian attack with 21 pieces of equipment near Avdiivka. At the end of the footage, lots of abandoned and destroyed equipment is seen.
https://twitter.com/bayraktar_1love/status/1678005555791646720
quote:
Stopped Russian attack with a large number of armored vehicles involved, Avdiivka direction. By the 110th brigade of Ukraine.
https://t.me/BUAR110ombr/77
At the end of the video, approximately 5-6 different destroyed Russian IFVs and 1 tank are shown.
https://twitter.com/Arvelleg1/status/1678009459765903361
quote:
@Arvelleg1
Attack happening around 48.182918, 37.753196, Avdiivka, Donetsk Oblast, going West from that location and ending in failure.
@Sorbifer2
Thanks. But when? Someone knows?
@Arvelleg1
Well, Girkin was complaining about events that would fit the description of what happened here, yesterday. https://twitter.com/ItsArtoir/status/1678045188843864065?s=20
My guess is either yesterday morning (that would mean he is still very much "connected" or the day before.
Edit: Fixed broken link
This post was edited on 7/9/23 at 6:35 pm
Posted on 7/9/23 at 8:09 pm to OutsideObserver
Isw update
quote:
Key Takeaways:
Ukrainian forces conducted counteroffensive operations on at least three sectors of the front on July 9.
The Wall Street Journal (WSJ) reported that Ukrainian forces are attempting to soften Russian defenses before liberating territory, accepting a slower pace of advance.
US President Joe Biden stated that Ukraine cannot join NATO until Russia’s war in Ukraine is over.
Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov discussed Turkey’s decision to allow the release of five Ukrainian commanders involved in the defense of the Azovstal Metallurgical Combine in Mariupol, Donetsk Oblast with his Turkish counterpart Hakan Fidan on July 9.
The Russian ultranationalist community continued to blame the Kremlin for trusting Turkey to uphold the deal and to keep Azovstal defenders in Turkey.
Former Russian officer and ardent nationalist Igor Girkin claimed that the Russian Federal Security Service’s (FSB) Service for the Protection of the Constitutional Order (UZKS) is deliberately censoring him.
Central African Republic (CAR) Presidental Spokesperson Albert Yaloke Mokpem stated on July 8 that Wagner Group personnel leaving CAR are conducting rotations and are not withdrawing.
Unknown persons leaked an image of what appears to be the Wagner Group’s founding charter on July 9, possibly to present the Wagner Group as a professional organization.
Russian President Vladimir Putin’s decision to not rapidly dispose of the Wagner Group and prosecute rebellion participants is placing himself and his subordinates in an awkward position.
Russian forces conducted limited ground attacks north of Svatove and south of Kreminna.
Ukrainian and Russian forces continued counteroffensive operations in the Bakhmut area.
Russian and Ukrainian forces continued ground attacks on the Avdiivka-Donetsk City line, and Russian forces advanced as of July 9.
Ukrainian forces continued to advance in the Donetsk-Zaporizhia oblasts administrative border area, and continued counteroffensive operations in western Zaporizhia Oblast.
Russian forces reportedly continued to reestablish previously flooded positions on the east (left) bank of the Dnipro River in Kherson Oblast.
Russian sources accused Ukrainian forces of targeting the Kerch Strait Bridge.
The Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD) is reportedly accepting Wagner Group mercenaries for contract service with the Russian MoD in Molkino, Krasnodar Krai.
Posted on 7/9/23 at 8:18 pm to WhereisAtlanta
quote:
Turkey has had F-16s since 1983, we have already provided them with F-35s.
Pretty sure we canceled the F-35 deal with Turkey when they bought russian air defense systems a few years back.
Posted on 7/9/23 at 8:34 pm to doubleb
We didn't do anything in 2014.
Can't change history
Can't change history
Posted on 7/9/23 at 8:41 pm to StormyMcMan
quote:
The Wall Street Journal (WSJ) reported that Ukrainian forces are attempting to soften Russian defenses before liberating territory, accepting a slower pace of advance.
Ukraine appears to be approaching its counter offensive as one would eating an elephant.
Posted on 7/9/23 at 8:51 pm to GeauxxxTigers23
Yeah Turkey wants $20 billion of updated/new F-16's but we won't approve until Sweden is an approved member of NATO (among other issues)
NATO member Turkey requested in October 2021 to buy $20 billion of Lockheed Martin Corp (LMT.N) F-16 fighters and nearly 80 modernization kits for its existing warplanes. President Joe Biden's administration has said it supports the sale and has been in touch for months with Congress to win its approval.
But it has faced opposition, notably from Menendez, over a range of issues, including Turkey's resistance to the ratification of Sweden's NATO membership, concerns about the jailing of journalists and other human rights abuses, and Turkish overflights of Greek airspace.
LINK
Sen. Menendez is quoted in this article back in May but McConnell is also against it.
Here's a newer article:
Turkey argues that the sale of F-16s is a matter related to the broader security of NATO and that it cannot be linked to progress on the membership bid of a candidate country, according to Turkish officials who are directly familiar with the matter. While Turkey wants Sweden to join NATO, it continues to insist the Nordic country must uphold pledges to crack down on terrorism, the officials said.
Sweden lifted a ban on arms sales to Turkey and amended its anti-terrorism laws as part of a deal clinched last year to break the impasse. In Sweden’s view, the new legal measures satisfy its last remaining obligation under an agreement signed at NATO’s Madrid summit to pave the way for ratification.
Ankara has exerted pressure on Sweden to extradite or expel suspects, including supporters of Kurdish separatists, and now wants to hear a solid plan from Stockholm during discussions between the foreign ministers of Turkey, Sweden and Finland on Thursday, the officials said.
Turkey wants to upgrade its F-16 fleet as a stopgap measure until it eventually develops its own jets. Turkey sent a formal request to the US to buy 40 new F-16 Block 70 aircraft and nearly 80 kits from Lockheed Martin Corp. to modernize its existing fighters in the fall of 2021. The Pentagon in 2019 ousted Turkey from the program to buy — and help build — Lockheed Martin’s more advanced F-35 fighter over its purchase of Russian S-400 missile systems on grounds that it might be used to gather intelligence on the stealth jet.
LINK
NATO member Turkey requested in October 2021 to buy $20 billion of Lockheed Martin Corp (LMT.N) F-16 fighters and nearly 80 modernization kits for its existing warplanes. President Joe Biden's administration has said it supports the sale and has been in touch for months with Congress to win its approval.
But it has faced opposition, notably from Menendez, over a range of issues, including Turkey's resistance to the ratification of Sweden's NATO membership, concerns about the jailing of journalists and other human rights abuses, and Turkish overflights of Greek airspace.
LINK
Sen. Menendez is quoted in this article back in May but McConnell is also against it.
Here's a newer article:
Turkey argues that the sale of F-16s is a matter related to the broader security of NATO and that it cannot be linked to progress on the membership bid of a candidate country, according to Turkish officials who are directly familiar with the matter. While Turkey wants Sweden to join NATO, it continues to insist the Nordic country must uphold pledges to crack down on terrorism, the officials said.
Sweden lifted a ban on arms sales to Turkey and amended its anti-terrorism laws as part of a deal clinched last year to break the impasse. In Sweden’s view, the new legal measures satisfy its last remaining obligation under an agreement signed at NATO’s Madrid summit to pave the way for ratification.
Ankara has exerted pressure on Sweden to extradite or expel suspects, including supporters of Kurdish separatists, and now wants to hear a solid plan from Stockholm during discussions between the foreign ministers of Turkey, Sweden and Finland on Thursday, the officials said.
Turkey wants to upgrade its F-16 fleet as a stopgap measure until it eventually develops its own jets. Turkey sent a formal request to the US to buy 40 new F-16 Block 70 aircraft and nearly 80 kits from Lockheed Martin Corp. to modernize its existing fighters in the fall of 2021. The Pentagon in 2019 ousted Turkey from the program to buy — and help build — Lockheed Martin’s more advanced F-35 fighter over its purchase of Russian S-400 missile systems on grounds that it might be used to gather intelligence on the stealth jet.
LINK
Posted on 7/10/23 at 12:12 am to jefffan
Mick Ryan with a thread on combat engineers and mine clearing activities.
Twitter
Engineer assets are one of the most precious in most any combat scenario and they are often misunderstood by maneuver commanders and always in short supply when they figure out of to use them effectively.
Engineer assets are one of the most precious in most any combat scenario and they are often misunderstood by maneuver commanders and always in short supply when they figure out of to use them effectively.
Posted on 7/10/23 at 5:47 am to Obtuse1
British Defence Intelligence
INTELLIGENCE UPDATE
UPDATE ON UKRAINE 10 July 2023
Russia is almost certainly struggling with a crisis of combat medical provision, after suffering an average of around 400 casualties a day for 17 months.
The influx of military casualties has likely undermined the normal provision of some Russian civilian medical services, especially in border regions near Ukraine. It is likely that many dedicated military hospitals are being reserved for officer casualties.
As claimed by the head of the Kalashnikov company's combat medicine training division, it is likely that up to 50 per cent of Russian combat fatalities could have been prevented with proper first aid. Very slow casualty evacuation, combined with the inappropriate use of the crude in-service Russian combat tourniquet, is reportedly a leading cause of preventable fatalities and amputations.
INTELLIGENCE UPDATE
UPDATE ON UKRAINE 10 July 2023
Russia is almost certainly struggling with a crisis of combat medical provision, after suffering an average of around 400 casualties a day for 17 months.
The influx of military casualties has likely undermined the normal provision of some Russian civilian medical services, especially in border regions near Ukraine. It is likely that many dedicated military hospitals are being reserved for officer casualties.
As claimed by the head of the Kalashnikov company's combat medicine training division, it is likely that up to 50 per cent of Russian combat fatalities could have been prevented with proper first aid. Very slow casualty evacuation, combined with the inappropriate use of the crude in-service Russian combat tourniquet, is reportedly a leading cause of preventable fatalities and amputations.
Posted on 7/10/23 at 6:20 am to Obtuse1
This seems to be the major news touted for the recent NATO summit - essentially this is the fast tracked plan that Finland and Sweden were/are taking, bypassing some of the more bureaucratic elements of entering NATO but doesn't give carte blanche to become a member while hostilities continue.
https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/ukraine-foreign-minister-nato-removes-map-hurdle-ukraines-nato-membership-2023-07-10/
https://www.nato.int/cps/en/natolive/topics_37356.htm
Edit: Incorrect country fixed, apparently my 11pm brain thought Norway needed to enter NATo twice.
https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/ukraine-foreign-minister-nato-removes-map-hurdle-ukraines-nato-membership-2023-07-10/
quote:
KYIV, July 10 (Reuters) - NATO has decided to drop a requirement for Ukraine to follow a Membership Action Plan (MAP) setting out targets to be met before joining the military alliance, Ukraine's foreign minister said on Monday.
https://www.nato.int/cps/en/natolive/topics_37356.htm
quote:
The Membership Action Plan (MAP) is a NATO programme of advice, assistance and practical support tailored to the individual needs of countries wishing to join the Alliance. Participation in the MAP does not prejudge any decision by the Alliance on future membership. Bosnia and Herzegovina is currently participating.
Upon decision of the North Atlantic Council, countries participate in the MAP by submitting individual annual national programmes on their preparations for possible future membership. These cover political, economic, defence, resource, security and legal aspects.
The MAP process provides a focused and candid feedback mechanism on aspirant countries' progress on their programmes. This includes both political and technical advice, as well as annual meetings between all NATO members and individual aspirants at the level of the North Atlantic Council to assess progress, on the basis of an annual progress report. A key element is the defence planning approach for aspirants, which includes elaboration and review of agreed planning targets.
quote:
Currently, Bosnia and Herzegovina is participating in the MAP, having been invited to do so in 2010. At the time, Allied foreign ministers called on the authorities in Bosnia and Herzegovina to resolve a key issue concerning the registration of immovable defence property to the state. At their meeting in December 2018, foreign ministers decided that NATO is ready to accept the submission of Bosnia and Herzegovina’s first Annual National Programme under the MAP.
Edit: Incorrect country fixed, apparently my 11pm brain thought Norway needed to enter NATo twice.
This post was edited on 7/10/23 at 7:12 am
Posted on 7/10/23 at 6:27 am to OutsideObserver
Tartarigami calling out the Russian opposition, such as it is.
https://twitter.com/Tatarigami_UA/status/1678185086401880067
https://twitter.com/Tatarigami_UA/status/1678185086401880067
quote:
This is one of the reasons why people in the West should not harbor any illusions about the so-called Russian liberal opposition.
Maria Pevchikh is a prominent figure in the Russian liberal opposition, known for her noteworthy contributions as a journalist and her active involvement in the Anti-Corruption Foundation
Upon scrolling through Twitter, it definitely looks like she prioritizes issues like shark incidents over the destruction of Ukrainian residential buildings, the loss of innocent lives, or other crimes committed by Russia, even in the current month.
The primary focus of many individuals within the Russian opposition seems to be virtue signaling to Western elites in the hope of securing funding and support for a post-war Russia, with the intention of taking cozy governmental seats once enough blood has been shed by Ukrainians to collapse the Kremlin
To be frank, I despise Russian opposition as a whole. They have demonstrated little to no value, considering the substantial amount of time that has passed without them forming an alternative government or even a unified combat entity comparable to the Freedom of Russia Legion.
Receiving accolades such as Oscars and engaging in sophisticated conversations with a bottle of wine alone cannot bring about the collapse of Putin's regime. Creating videos within an echo chamber about corruption in Russia may not have a substantial impact on bringing about change. Corruption in Russia? No way!
Navalny's endorsement of the annexation of Crimea and support for the chauvinistic "Russian march" is a fact. But in order to gain acceptance in the West you had to hide imperialistic ambitions under the guise of a liberal democratic movement
You are like bed bugs of politics - constantly searching for a new host to leech on funding but too little and insignificant to make a noticeable effect
Posted on 7/10/23 at 6:28 am to cypher
Random tweets
LINK
LINK
LINK
LINK
LINK
LINK
So from 12 and 15 to 24 and 30
LINK
quote:
Erdogan demanded #Turkey's admission to the #EU in exchange for Turkey's agreement to admit #Sweden to #NATO.
"First, open the way for Turkey to join the EU, and then we will clear the way for Sweden's NATO bid, just as we did with Finland," the Turkish president said.
LINK
quote:
The kremlin confirmed that putin's meeting with prigozhin took place on June 29 and lasted almost three hours. It was attended by all the commanders and management of the PMC "Wagner".
"putin gave an assessment of the company's actions at the front, and also gave an assessment of the event (the mutiny of the "Wagnerians" - ed.) on June 24. He listened to the commanders' explanations and offered them further options for employment,"- peskov said.
LINK
quote:
??Türkiye did not put forward any conditions to Kyiv for the return of the defenders of Mariupol, said Ambassador of Ukraine to Türkiye Vasyl Bodnar.
According to him, Ankara is interested in this operation because it allows the country to strengthen its position in the international arena.
He also said that the negotiations lasted for several months.
LINK
quote:
#Ukrainian Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba said that #NATO countries agreed to accept #Ukraine into the alliance under a simplified procedure - without fulfilling the membership action plan.
The terms are still not named, but, most likely, Ukraine will join NATO after the end of the war.
The vast majority of Ukrainians (89%) want to see the country as part of NATO, and residents of all regions of the country support such a step - from 79% in the east to 93% in the west, according to the Kyiv International Institute of Sociology.
LINK
quote:
Kremlin says that Putin met with Prigozhin and other Wagner commanders on June 29 (5 days after the rebellion)
Kremlin adds that at the meeting the commanders assured that they were his "staunch supporters and were ready to continue to fight for the Motherland"
LINK
quote:
Russia has doubled the production of Su-34 and Su-35 warplanes for the war in Ukraine, Russiab state firm Rostec says - RIA
LINK
So from 12 and 15 to 24 and 30
quote:
Yet, according to the best open-source estimates available, Russia’s aerospace forces (VKS) received only 15 total Su-35 and Su-57 models for the year 2022, a maximum of 12 Su-34s from NAPO and only four of the Su-30SM2 models, the latter which were delivered to naval aviation units.
LINK
Posted on 7/10/23 at 6:40 am to OutsideObserver
quote:
This seems to be the major news touted for the recent NATO summit - essentially this is the fast tracked plan that Norway and Sweden were/are taking, bypassing some of the more bureaucratic elements of entering NATO but doesn't give carte blanche to become a member while hostilities continue.
I'm trying to understand how Norway fits into this? I'm guessing you mean Finland?
Posted on 7/10/23 at 7:09 am to aTmTexas Dillo
quote:
I'm trying to understand how Norway fits into this? I'm guessing you mean Finland
Late night brain fart, yes Finland, will correct. Cheers for pointing it out.
Posted on 7/10/23 at 7:30 am to StormyMcMan
quote:
The kremlin confirmed that putin's meeting with prigozhin took place on June 29 and lasted almost three hours. It was attended by all the commanders and management of the PMC "Wagner".
"putin gave an assessment of the company's actions at the front, and also gave an assessment of the event (the mutiny of the "Wagnerians" - ed.) on June 24. He listened to the commanders' explanations and offered them further options for employment,"- peskov said.
Like I said, Putin needs Prigozhin, so the rehab of Prigozhin's image is well underway. Prigozhin's "exile to Belarus" literally lasted for one day, and he's been in Russia since.
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