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Message
re: Latest Updates: Russia-Ukraine Conflict
Posted on 7/6/23 at 5:31 am to OutsideObserver
Posted on 7/6/23 at 5:31 am to OutsideObserver
British Defence Intelligence
INTELLIGENCE UPDATE
UPDATE ON UKRAINE 06 july 2023
Military formations drawn from across Russia are currently bearing the brunt of Ukraine's counter offensive.
In Zaporizhzhia Oblast, the 58th Combined Arms Army is defending heavily entrenched lines; normally it secures Russia's volatile Caucasus region. Around Velyka Novosilka, the 5th Combined Arms Army and Naval Infantry hold the front; they are routinely based 7,000km away as a balance to Chinese power.
Around Bakhmut, the defence is now largely formed around airborne regiments normally stationed in western Russia, who normally act as an elite rapid reaction force in case of tensions with NATO. The way Russia is accepting risks across Eurasia highlights how the war has dislocated Russia's established national strategy.
INTELLIGENCE UPDATE
UPDATE ON UKRAINE 06 july 2023
Military formations drawn from across Russia are currently bearing the brunt of Ukraine's counter offensive.
In Zaporizhzhia Oblast, the 58th Combined Arms Army is defending heavily entrenched lines; normally it secures Russia's volatile Caucasus region. Around Velyka Novosilka, the 5th Combined Arms Army and Naval Infantry hold the front; they are routinely based 7,000km away as a balance to Chinese power.
Around Bakhmut, the defence is now largely formed around airborne regiments normally stationed in western Russia, who normally act as an elite rapid reaction force in case of tensions with NATO. The way Russia is accepting risks across Eurasia highlights how the war has dislocated Russia's established national strategy.
1
Posted on 7/6/23 at 6:39 am to cypher
Muh BRICS!
Bloomberg:
Russia’s Rupee Trap Is Adding to $147 Billion Hoard Abroad
Bloomberg:
Russia’s Rupee Trap Is Adding to $147 Billion Hoard Abroad
quote:
A lopsided trade relationship with India is forcing Russia to accumulate up to $1 billion each month in rupee assets that remain stranded outside the country, swelling the stockpile of capital it’s amassed abroad since the invasion of Ukraine.
quote:
But with imports from India stagnating, Russia is ending up with an excess of rupees, which its companies have trouble repatriating because of local currency restrictions. Deadlock over a solution has left Russia expecting the surplus to rise further, according to people familiar with the negotiations.
Every quarter, the imbalance will likely generate the equivalent of $2 billion to $3 billion that Russia can’t use, according to Bloomberg Economics. The amount would add to an estimated $147 billion in net foreign assets built up abroad over the course of 2022.
quote:
The warping of commerce leaves few good options for the Kremlin and underscores how little bargaining power it has in a redrawn global oil market that’s seen Asian powerhouses India and China scoop up cheaper Russian oil. It also shows why a shift away from the currencies of Russia’s adversaries remains fraught with risks.
quote:
What Bloomberg Economics Says...
“Russia’s trade with India is increasingly imbalanced. India’s exports to Russia haven’t caught up with booming imports, but there’s a limited appetite in Russia to save its current-account surplus in rupees. That said, there are no alternative oil importers of India’s caliber on the horizon for Russia, so exporters and banks will gradually accept settlement in rupees. This will allow Russia to keep its oil flowing, but will make hard currency more scarce, weaken the ruble and push inflation higher.”
—Alexander Isakov, Russia economist.
Posted on 7/6/23 at 6:46 am to GOP_Tiger
That's gonna come back and bite them.
Posted on 7/6/23 at 7:01 am to jeffsdad
from twitter....
Ukraine has overtaken the russian federation in the number of tanks, there has been a significant change in the balance of heavy weapons on the battlefield, — Bloomberg.
"Kyiv's allies have delivered 471 new tanks since the start of the war, and 286 have not yet arrived," –– Ukraine Support Tracker database.
The gap in artillery and MLRS also narrowed, albeit by a much smaller margin.
Ukraine has overtaken the russian federation in the number of tanks, there has been a significant change in the balance of heavy weapons on the battlefield, — Bloomberg.
"Kyiv's allies have delivered 471 new tanks since the start of the war, and 286 have not yet arrived," –– Ukraine Support Tracker database.
The gap in artillery and MLRS also narrowed, albeit by a much smaller margin.
Posted on 7/6/23 at 7:25 am to Obtuse1
Posted on 7/6/23 at 8:47 am to GOP_Tiger
Thanks for posting that. I asked about this very thing the other day, but my question went unanswered.
Posted on 7/6/23 at 8:57 am to cypher
Damn. 2000 tanks!
I knew that Ukraine was doing some serious work on Russian tanks, but I haven't checked Oryx in a while so I wasn't aware they were up around the 2000 mark. That's a huge impact on one of Russia's biggest assets when it comes to armored weapons systems.
Overall, Russia may have the numbers advantage, especially in manpower, but it's not sustainable. Russia has less (way less in some cases like tanks) assets than they started out with. Meanwhile Ukraine has actually gained assets through help from their western partners, despite the fact that Russia has taken out a good deal of Ukrainian weapons and equipment. That trend is most definitely a positive for Ukraine. Russia cannot sustain if those kinds of numbers hold true going forward.
I knew that Ukraine was doing some serious work on Russian tanks, but I haven't checked Oryx in a while so I wasn't aware they were up around the 2000 mark. That's a huge impact on one of Russia's biggest assets when it comes to armored weapons systems.
Overall, Russia may have the numbers advantage, especially in manpower, but it's not sustainable. Russia has less (way less in some cases like tanks) assets than they started out with. Meanwhile Ukraine has actually gained assets through help from their western partners, despite the fact that Russia has taken out a good deal of Ukrainian weapons and equipment. That trend is most definitely a positive for Ukraine. Russia cannot sustain if those kinds of numbers hold true going forward.
Posted on 7/6/23 at 9:15 am to IAmNERD
Russia also provided Ukraine with a lot of tanks and equipment by abandoning them in the Kharkiv and Kherson offensives.
Posted on 7/6/23 at 9:25 am to jfan244888
Don’t forget the early days of the war when the Russians took their shite at capturing Kyiv. There were lots of Ukrainian tractors hauling off Russian equipment even in those early days.
Posted on 7/6/23 at 9:29 am to GOP_Tiger
Looks like ATACMS are finally happening for Ukraine according to the WSJ. It’s all been agreed to and now they are just waiting on slow Joe to wake up from his nap, drink his Ovaltine and maybe do a key bump of some coke Hunter was nice enough to leave behind at the White House.
Posted on 7/6/23 at 9:32 am to LSUPilot07
quote:
do a key bump of some coke Hunter was nice enough to leave behind at the White House.
I bet that shite was pure fish scale, too.
Downvoted for saying it was good coke
This post was edited on 7/6/23 at 10:22 am
Posted on 7/6/23 at 9:50 am to beerJeep
3000 pages!
Just wanted to post that.
Just wanted to post that.
Posted on 7/6/23 at 12:26 pm to LSUPilot07
quote:
Looks like ATACMS are finally happening for Ukraine according to the WSJ. It’s all been agreed to and now they are just waiting on slow Joe to wake up from his nap, drink his Ovaltine and maybe do a key bump of some coke Hunter was nice enough to leave behind at the White House.
That story was 8 days ago, and more recent reporting is that it's still under consideration. However, there is more reporting today that cluster bombs are a go for tomorrow:
Reuters:
US plans to supply Ukraine with cluster munitions-officials
quote:
WASHINGTON, July 6 (Reuters) - The United States plans to send cluster munitions to Ukraine to help it battle Russian invaders, U.S. officials said on Thursday, a move opposed by human rights groups but which would provide a powerful new element to Ukraine's counteroffensive.
A weapons aid package that includes cluster munitions fired by a 155 millimeter Howitzer cannon was expected to be announced Friday, said two U.S officials speaking on condition of anonymity.
The White House said sending cluster munitions to Ukraine is "under active consideration" but it had no announcement to make at this time. President Joe Biden is to attend a NATO summit next week in Vilnius, Lithuania, expected to be dominated by the war in Ukraine.
Human Rights Watch on Thursday called on Russia and Ukraine to stop using cluster munitions and urged the U.S. not to supply them. The group said in a report that both Russian and Ukrainian forces have used the weapons, which have killed Ukrainian civilians.
In order to send cluster munitions to Ukraine, Biden would need to sign a waiver, one of the people said, similar to one that was signed for exporting cluster munitions technology to South Korea in 2021.
In the aid package, which is expected to be well above $500 million in value, Ukraine will receive munitions for High Mobility Artillery Rocket Systems (HIMARS), Bradley fighting vehicles and Stryker armored personnel carriers, one of the officials said.
The package was still being finalized and could change, the officials said. It would be funded using Presidential Drawdown Authority (PDA), which authorizes the president to transfer articles and services from U.S. stocks without congressional approval during an emergency. The material will come from U.S. excess inventory.
Biden is going to the NATO summit in Vilnius on Tuesday, and this is not the kind of thing that he can attend emptyhanded.
And, honestly, I think that cluster bombs are more important to Ukraine right now than ATACMS. Storm Shadow and the impending arrival of GLSDB mean that ATACMS is important, but not as critical as it would be otherwise.
Cluster bombs for 155mm guns, though, will give Ukraine immediate and substantial help in its current offensive, and it will also relieve worries about Ukraine running out of ammo anytime soon.
Posted on 7/6/23 at 1:52 pm to GOP_Tiger
I guess I’m behind then. Haven’t had much down time to keep current lately. If I’m not in the air I’m trying to steal a few winks of sleep between wedding details that I honestly couldn’t give a shite less about. I was hoping she would just do it all and tell me how much to pay and what day and time to be there. I feel so sorry for wedding planners. That has to be the worst job on earth.
This post was edited on 7/6/23 at 1:56 pm
Posted on 7/6/23 at 2:05 pm to LSUPilot07
quote:
I guess I’m behind then. Haven’t had much down time to keep current lately. If I’m not in the air I’m trying to steal a few winks of sleep between wedding details that I honestly couldn’t give a shite less about. I was hoping she would just do it all and tell me how much to pay and what day and time to be there. I feel so sorry for wedding planners. That has to be the worst job on earth.
Congrats! My daughter just got married on Sunday.
Posted on 7/6/23 at 2:17 pm to GOP_Tiger
Thank you. And congratulations to your daughter as well. I’ll just be glad when it’s over honestly. Never knew how exhausting the process would be but she enjoys it so happy wife happy life, right? I’m amazed it took this long to give Ukraine clusters with how dirty Russia has fought this war. The gloves should have come off months ago. Better late than never I suppose. They will really help root out all Putin’s rats dug into their trenches.
Posted on 7/6/23 at 2:42 pm to SirWinston
quote:lol go suck Putins cock, Russkie.
Every sane person: the USA / Globalists blew up Nordstream.
Ukraine Neocon Simps: lol go suck Putins cock, Russkie.
Every Sane Person: Ukraine / US / Globalists are setting the stage for nuclear false flag.
Ukraine Neocon Simps: lol go suck Putins cock, Russkie.
Posted on 7/6/23 at 2:47 pm to GOP_Tiger
CNN reporter Natasha Bertrand:
quote:
Pentagon Press Sec says US is considering providing cluster munitions but only those with a less than 2.35% dud rate. “We have multiple variants…in our stocks and the ones that we are considering providing would not include older variants w/dud rates that are higher than 2.35%.”
Posted on 7/6/23 at 3:20 pm to GOP_Tiger
Can someone explain why other countries aren't all in on contributing to fight the Russians?
Meaning, I feel like it's trickling out of equipment and munitions instead of just CONSTANT huge shipments from everyone at once.
Is it essentially a man power issue?
Meaning, I feel like it's trickling out of equipment and munitions instead of just CONSTANT huge shipments from everyone at once.
Is it essentially a man power issue?
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