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re: Latest Updates: Russia-Ukraine Conflict
Posted on 5/25/23 at 2:45 pm to Darth_Vader
Posted on 5/25/23 at 2:45 pm to Darth_Vader
quote:
I have been thinking the same thing. Their hesitation to launch this much anticipated offensive reminds me of Hitler doing the same thing in delaying the launch of Operation Zitadelle. If I’m not mistaken the original plan was to launch Zitadelle as soon as the Rasputitsa came to an end. But Hitler kept pushing it back to bring in more armor, particularly the new Panther tank and Elfant assault gun. But all he really achieved was to give the Soviets time to build up massive defenses in depth. I can’t help but wonder if Ukraine isn’t about to lean a harsh lesson of how true the saying “those who don’t remember the past are condemned to repeat it” actually is.
This certainly isn’t my area of expertise, so correct me if I’m wrong, but wasn’t the most successful fortification done in and around cities, i.e. Stalingrad? If so, I’m not sure this situation is truly analogous, as Ukraine would be looking to eat up land, which is far more difficult to hold than population centers.
1
Posted on 5/25/23 at 2:48 pm to Darth_Vader
Citadel was launched in July… Barbarossa in June… Ukraine war aims would be significantly less (tho obviously with a much smaller force).
I think the issue is Russia has strengthened its defensive positions… and the only real way to overcome that (short of overwhelming ground forces taking heavy losses) is air superiority.
But idk. We’ll see I guess
I think the issue is Russia has strengthened its defensive positions… and the only real way to overcome that (short of overwhelming ground forces taking heavy losses) is air superiority.
But idk. We’ll see I guess
Posted on 5/25/23 at 2:51 pm to OBReb6
You’re a piece of shite.
Posted on 5/25/23 at 3:16 pm to OBReb6
Nice. I respect it when you just put it out all in the open instead of dancing around it.
Posted on 5/25/23 at 3:43 pm to Joshjrn
quote:
You’re a piece of shite.
He wants Putin to plow his wife! That's all I need to know.
Posted on 5/25/23 at 3:43 pm to Chromdome35
quote:
There are some posts showing up on Twitter that the Russian ship, Ivan Khurs, was seriously damaged.
I wish I had the feed from the Global Hawk (Forte 10) that took the time to make a couple of looks over the Khurs yesterday.
Posted on 5/25/23 at 3:46 pm to Darth_Vader
quote:
Now they you mention it, I do need to add a T-72 to the stash.
Just make a bunch of model ERA and build a dome out of it with a gun tube coming out and the hint of tracks on the bottom.
Posted on 5/25/23 at 3:48 pm to Hateradedrink
Multiple reports of a strike in Berdyansk.
https://twitter.com/WarMonitors/status/1661827908388659210
https://twitter.com/NOELreports/status/1661827604649766913 -Video
Some early speculation from OSINTdefender
https://twitter.com/sentdefender/status/1661832413343895552
Edit: Location has been corroborated by
https://twitter.com/OAlexanderDK/status/1661836208928858112
https://twitter.com/WarMonitors/status/1661827908388659210
quote:
Explosions in occupied Berdyansk
https://twitter.com/NOELreports/status/1661827604649766913 -Video
quote:
Big arrivals in occupied Berdyansk now.
Some early speculation from OSINTdefender
https://twitter.com/sentdefender/status/1661832413343895552
quote:
The Location of what appears to possibly be a Ukrainian “Storm Shadow” Cruise Missile Strike is the “Azovkabel” Cable Manufacturing Plant in the Northwest of Occupied-Berdyansk, with Ukrainian Sources claiming the Factory was being used as a Russian Military Base
Edit: Location has been corroborated by
https://twitter.com/OAlexanderDK/status/1661836208928858112
This post was edited on 5/25/23 at 4:12 pm
Posted on 5/25/23 at 3:53 pm to OutsideObserver
LINK
US Defense Minister: The Netherlands and Denmark will lead F-16 training
US Defense Minister: The Netherlands and Denmark will lead F-16 training
quote:
The Netherlands and Denmark will jointly lead F-16 training for Ukrainian pilots, says US Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin. Other countries will also participate.
In a digital meeting with other defense ministers on Ukraine, Austin said he hopes training can begin in the coming weeks.
Posted on 5/25/23 at 4:07 pm to OBReb6
I can't wait til you get replaced ya big ol bitch
Posted on 5/25/23 at 4:25 pm to GOP_Tiger
GOP_Tiger said:
Some of the logical reasoning, that he shows signs of recovering from an illness or is in a hospital, in response to this from Pro-Russian sources is hilarious.
This is a parody but I have seen several of the reasons amplified as proof. One of the other ones is that you can't see his legs so they must be missing.
As an aside the speculation that Shoigu was potentially hit in the command bunker in Mariupol have been disproven with several appearances since.
quote:
"And finally, today, May 25, I want to reveal a terrible secret, a very terrible one, about the commander-in-chief of the Armed Forces of Ukraine."
Zaluzhny: "I sincerely thank all Ukrainians! Together we will surely win, and not only today! Always! Thank you all!"
Some of the logical reasoning, that he shows signs of recovering from an illness or is in a hospital, in response to this from Pro-Russian sources is hilarious.
This is a parody but I have seen several of the reasons amplified as proof. One of the other ones is that you can't see his legs so they must be missing.
As an aside the speculation that Shoigu was potentially hit in the command bunker in Mariupol have been disproven with several appearances since.
Posted on 5/25/23 at 4:31 pm to lowspark12
quote:
I think the issue is Russia has strengthened its defensive positions… and the only real way to overcome that (short of overwhelming ground forces taking heavy losses) is air superiority.
Were they able to do that and attack in the Bakmuth sector?
I doubt it.
I’d hit them right there as soon as Wagner left.
Posted on 5/25/23 at 4:31 pm to crazy4lsu
quote:
The youtuber Perun has a some great videos on this
His videos are a great source of information. I wait for them to come out on Sunday mornings.
Russia is definitely screwed economically, at least per a Russian biz friend who is a former finance director at Gazprom. Additionally, TRYING to sell refined products at 10 cents on the dollar is LOSING, not winning.
The question is whether or not they are getting a piece of the pie in return for selling crude oil at a loss to Chinese, Indian, Turkish and Saudi refining after sales of products to Europe.
Posted on 5/25/23 at 4:51 pm to Joshjrn
quote:
This certainly isn’t my area of expertise, so correct me if I’m wrong, but wasn’t the most successful fortification done in and around cities, i.e. Stalingrad? If so, I’m not sure this situation is truly analogous, as Ukraine would be looking to eat up land, which is far more difficult to hold than population centers.
Operation Zitadelle was fought almost exclusively in open terrain around the Kursk salient. Here’s some pictures of the fighting during what became known as The Battle of Kursk for reference…
As you can see the terrain is perfect for the offensive. But, thanks to repeated delays in launching the offensive, coupled with the Soviets knowing it was coming months in advance, the Soviets had time to make multiple strong defensive lines. Here is a map showing their defense in depth…
Please note that in addition to multiple defensive lines, the Soviets also had the Steepe Front (the equivalent of an Army Group) in reserve to back up the two Fronts inside the Kursk salient. By the time Hitler gave the green light to Zitadelle, the Soviets had transformed the the Kursk salient into the most heavily fortified section of land on the planet. The Wehrmacht never stood a chance.
Posted on 5/25/23 at 5:31 pm to Darth_Vader
It is interesting how history repeats itself. The battle of Kursk was fought in the area of Belgorod. The largest tank battle ever fought was in Prokhorovka which is about 50km north of Belgorod.
Posted on 5/25/23 at 5:37 pm to Darth_Vader
quote:
By the time Hitler gave the green light to Zitadelle, the Soviets had transformed the the Kursk salient into the most heavily fortified section of land on the planet. The Wehrmacht never stood a chance.
Is it perhaps the lesson to not telegraph exactly where you plan to attack? With a frontline that is much longer, it should be much more difficult to adequately man several lines of defense. Perhaps someone who knows more about this stuff can weigh in and clarify how Ukraine may avoid the historical fate.
Posted on 5/25/23 at 5:51 pm to TBoy
quote:
Is it perhaps the lesson to not telegraph exactly where you plan to attack? With a frontline that is much longer, it should be much more difficult to adequately man several lines of defense. Perhaps someone who knows more about this stuff can weigh in and clarify how Ukraine may avoid the historical fate.
The Soviets had the advance of a spy code-named “Lucy” operating in Japan. He passed along a mountain of intelligence to Russia, including forewarning of Operation Zitadelle.
The question is does Russia have the capability to accurately guess where Ukraine will strike? Technology has advanced far beyond what was a tin 1943. The Soviets had Lucy, the Russians have spy spy satellites.
Posted on 5/25/23 at 5:55 pm to Darth_Vader
I think another difference is that the Russian army in the Battle of Kursk was a much higher quality army than the Russian army of today.
They certainly had better leadership.
They certainly had better leadership.
This post was edited on 5/25/23 at 5:56 pm
Posted on 5/25/23 at 5:58 pm to Darth_Vader
WWII was a “human” intelligence spy system. Sure they had recon planes but mostly a human network
Now we have satellites, electronics signals interception, drones, ect to go with human intelligence assets.
I don’t think it would be east to hide the forces that were amassed in WWII (men and machine per mile of front) in todays environment. But the scale of what is on this battlefield maybe. There really aren’t a lot of men/equipment per mile and it only takes the right punch to break through (see Karkiv last fall)
Just need to poke till u find the right spot and have good All around intel and guts to take the required risk to exploit it.
Now we have satellites, electronics signals interception, drones, ect to go with human intelligence assets.
I don’t think it would be east to hide the forces that were amassed in WWII (men and machine per mile of front) in todays environment. But the scale of what is on this battlefield maybe. There really aren’t a lot of men/equipment per mile and it only takes the right punch to break through (see Karkiv last fall)
Just need to poke till u find the right spot and have good All around intel and guts to take the required risk to exploit it.
Posted on 5/25/23 at 6:00 pm to Darth_Vader
quote:
The question is does Russia have the capability to accurately guess where Ukraine will strike? Technology has advanced far beyond what was a tin 1943. The Soviets had Lucy, the Russians have spy spy satellites.
The Brits had broken the German enigma code too.
Stalin knew what Hitler was doing.
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