re: Latest Updates: Russia-Ukraine Conflict

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I no longer understand what they are waiting for. The ground is dry now. True, there is more equipment on the way, but there will always be more equipment on the way. They can't wait forever.

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Same. I have no clue what they're waiting for either. I'm sure there's a good reason for it, but with the information we have (I'm sure there's a lot we don't have that the planners do) it's hard to zero in on a great reason for still waiting.

I hope they haven't waited too long and given Russia time to regroup and consolidate their weak points. There were a few points over the past several weeks where it seemed Russia was absolutely spent and totally confused higher up the chain of command and seemed like prime opportunities to strike. Let's hope they get more opportunities like that and haven't squandered good ones waiting for the perfect one.

I think the recent incursion into the Belgorod region was the first concrete move of the counter offensive. Ukraine has to allow some time for Russia to reposition forces to strengthen that area. This will likely take a couple of weeks to happen.

Remember that in the fall, Ukraine made lots of noise about moving on Kherson and got Russia to move lots of combat power into that area, which Ukraine promptly started hitting and cutting off from resupply.

That takes time.

A few things to consider:
1) Where are all the new brigades actually deployed at this point?
2) Ukraine is still masking where the offensive will occur, when they start moving these new units to their kick-off areas, their intentions will be much clearer.
3) Russia will start redeploying to counter those units.
4) The number of Storm Shadow attacks appears to have subsided recently
5) Ukraine has announced the formation of 9 new Brigades; however, we have heard from various sources that there are other brigades being prepared for deployment, are they waiting for those to arrive? I'm specifically talking about the Swedish-equipped brigade(s) with CV90s and Archers. There has been footage on twitter in the last few days of a train carrying at least 25 CV90s moving through German and Slovakia.
https://twitter.com/saintjavelin/status/1661732629547487232

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An entire train filled with extremely capable, and much needed Swedish CV90 IFV's heading for Ukraine

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From the article you posted (bolding added by me):

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4. Clear timelines for the delivery of key heavy weapons to Ukraine are becoming defined

Two consignments of weaponry, from Sweden and Germany respectively, are not in country yet but according to many news reports will become available in the next few weeks.

The German contribution, widespread reports from that country say, will be part of the allocated 110 Leopard I tanks. Crew training in Germany is nearing completion, according to Die Welt and other German mainstream platforms.

A Cold War fighting vehicle with a good main armament, excellent optics but thinner armor than the most modern tanks, the Leopard I fills a critical gap in the Armed Forces of Ukraine (AFU) assault capability: a reliable tank able to blast Russian infantry out of its fortifications while offering fair levels of protection against Russian weapons.

The international coalition supporting Ukraine has been relatively slow to send Ukraine tanks, and the first batch of Leopard I – according to many reports a full battalion of 40 vehicles – will arrive in Ukraine in the first weeks of June, just in time for the probable launch of the main ground assault.

From Sweden, social media images and official statements from Stockholm have confirmed that three powerful weapon systems in sufficient quantities to equip a full Ukrainian combat brigade – tanks, artillery and infantry fighting vehicles – are currently being dispatched.

Fully modern and in some aspect state-of the art, the hundred or so Swedish combat vehicles including the CV-90 infantry fighting vehicle and Archer semi-automatic howitzer will, most likely, make the Ukrainian formation operating them the best-armed brigade on either side in the war.

It’s not clear how much training the Ukrainian army leadership will require before the unit is committed to combat, but AFU leadership already must be building the Swedish weapons’ arrival into its counteroffensive plans and timelines.

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I wonder how they can get this information. Or is it just a wild guess?

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They have compiled the numbers published by the General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine on Facebook. This is the latest:

Wow, look at the disparity between tube artillery v mlrs loses. Their is mlrs game is week.

There are some posts showing up on Twitter that the Russian ship, Ivan Khurs, was seriously damaged.

That goes along with my early post of the footage of one of the drones reaching the ship.

https://twitter.com/GirkinGirkin/status/1661755360191864832


Here's the video
https://twitter.com/DefenceU/status/1661789365582921744

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Chromdome35

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5) Ukraine has announced the formation of 9 new Brigades; however, we have heard from various sources that there are other brigades being prepared for deployment, are they waiting for those to arrive? I'm specifically talking about the Swedish-equipped brigade(s) with CV90s and Archers. There has been footage on twitter in the last few days of a train carrying at least 25 CV90s moving through German and Slovakia.

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Do you think the 100+ tanks that Germany just announced and are to begin delivery in the next few weeks will affect the timing?

There are a couple of videos emerging of Russian destroyed dams. Probably with the purpose of flooding and making any river crossings more difficult for Ukraine.

https://twitter.com/IntelCrab/status/1661789612719702033

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The dam in #Karlivka (Donetsk) has been destroyed.

Photo was taken here(ish): (48.1146411, 37.4889105)

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Video at this link..different dam than the other one
https://twitter.com/WarMonitors/status/1661793818247675904

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??It is reported that the Russian military destroyed the dam of the Karlovsky reservoir, located northwest of Pervomaisky.

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LINK

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As I kinda suspected, it seems to be just a Saab marketing ploy.

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Basically, Sweden is going to provide some very basic training on simulators to persuade Ukraine to place an order after the war is over.

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Darth, This would make a good model subject. quote:A Russian T-72 Ural with a lot of ERA

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Now they you mention it, I do need to add a T-72 to the stash.

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I no longer understand what they are waiting for. The ground is dry now. True, there is more equipment on the way, but there will always be more equipment on the way. They can't wait forever.

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I have been thinking the same thing. Their hesitation to launch this much anticipated offensive reminds me of Hitler doing the same thing in delaying the launch of Operation Zitadelle. If I’m not mistaken the original plan was to launch Zitadelle as soon as the Rasputitsa came to an end. But Hitler kept pushing it back to bring in more armor, particularly the new Panther tank and Elfant assault gun. But all he really achieved was to give the Soviets time to build up massive defenses in depth.

I can’t help but wonder if Ukraine isn’t about to lean a harsh lesson of how true the saying “those who don’t remember the past are condemned to repeat it” actually is.