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Message
re: Latest Updates: Russia-Ukraine Conflict
Posted on 5/22/23 at 7:52 pm to Hateradedrink
Posted on 5/22/23 at 7:52 pm to Hateradedrink
quote:
The biggest lie you tell yourselves is that you’re “middle of the road”
My point is made. I agree with you 100%, or I am the enemy.
1
Posted on 5/22/23 at 8:07 pm to TigerFanatic99
quote:
middle of the road people like myself
Posted on 5/22/23 at 8:08 pm to TigerFanatic99
quote:
There's no middle road with you people. I either agree with you 100% or I am the enemy. It's disgusting what discourse in American society has become on both sides of every disagreement.
I am hopeful that there is a silent majority of people who are tired of political extremes. Unfortunately their voices are drowned out, I think mostly by social media, where the most extreme and obnoxious opinions get the most airplay.
And I agree, most Americans' inability to see both sides of an issue is a huge problem for us.
Posted on 5/22/23 at 8:32 pm to kingbob
quote:
My argument: if Japan didn’t have to worry about embargoes from Western nations, they wouldn’t have needed to attack western colonies to get access to those resources.
Japan, like Germany was incredibly arrogant and thought their race was superior. They took on China because they truly thought the end result was inevitable. Yamamoto tried to tell them taking on the USA was not in their interests but they would not listen.
Japan had imperialist visions based upon their arrogance. Not because of anything the USA did or did not do.
Posted on 5/22/23 at 8:33 pm to TigerFanatic99
quote:
I'll bet ya'll here in the think tank would have much better success converting middle of the road people like myself if you didn't preach that "people who don't believe the US should give money and blood to Ukraine are Putin dick suckers".
Honestly, why the frick should you give a shite what I think and why in the world would I consider trying to convert you? I am not proselytizing. I assume most people here are grown and can make up their own mind. Now if you come in trolling like we see on a routine basis you might get some smartass bullshite but if you are trolling then you likely aren't on a fence and you also may not even be accurately representing your true opinion.
I have a nuanced opinion about the war but I am really not that interested in discussing it, I come here for updates. If I engage in any discussion it is usually just a slap back at the trolls which I know the thread would be better off without. I was molded in the Reagan era and was trained to close with and destroy the enemy and that enemy was Russia. They have had over 30 years to change my mind, nearly 10 of which my mind was fully open. They have given me no reason to see them as anything but the enemy even if they may not be the most dangerous one now.
If you want peoples' more nuanced opinions here just engage without trolling. Plenty of people will discuss it but just be aware most of us are pretty short on fricks to give after 15 months of dealing with trolls and literally nobody that appeared to have not made up their mind where they stood.
Posted on 5/22/23 at 8:38 pm to TigerFanatic99
quote:
I'll bet ya'll here in the think tank would have much better success converting middle of the road people like myself if you didn't preach that "people who don't believe the US should give money and blood to Ukraine are Putin dick suckers".
I have no issue with those that believe the US should stay out of Ukraine and/or we are are spending too much over there.
I wonder about people who support what Russia has done in Ukraine and rksewhere.
Posted on 5/22/23 at 8:44 pm to TigerFanatic99
quote:
and blood
Who has said this?
Posted on 5/22/23 at 8:50 pm to StormyMcMan
ISW Update and info on the raid
quote:
Key Takeaways
Elements of the all-Russian pro-Ukrainian Russian Volunteer Corps (RDK) and Freedom of Russian Legion (LSR) conducted a raid into Belgorod Oblast on May 22.
Ukrainian officials noted that they are aware of the attack but denied any direct involvement by the Ukrainian Armed Forces. The raid prompted a slate of responses from local and federal Russian officials.
The Russian information space responded with a similar degree of panic, factionalism, and incoherency as it tends to display when it experiences significant informational shocks.
Wagner Group financier Yevgeny Prigozhin claimed that Wagner forces will withdraw from the entire frontline in Ukraine after June 1 in order to reconstitute and train for about two months.
Ukrainian officials stated that limited fighting continued in and around Bakhmut on May 22.
The Russian informational response to the capture of Bakhmut has thus far focused on competing for responsibility for the victory rather than discussing the resulting military situation. The hyperfocus on claiming victory in Bakhmut distracts from the precarious Russian military situation in and around Bakhmut, underscoring the weight of Prigozhin’s influence in the information space.
Russian forces launched another large-scale drone and missile strike against Ukrainian infrastructure on the night of May 21-22.
Russian forces continued limited ground attacks in the Kupyansk direction.
Russian forces made marginal gains in the Avdiivka area and did not conduct any confirmed or claimed ground attacks in western Donetsk Oblast.
The Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant reportedly lost power for the seventh time since the beginning of the war.
The Russian military is reportedly lowering the length of training for convicts in order to compensate for heavy losses.
Russian occupation authorities announced that preliminary voting for the ruling United Russia Party has commenced in occupied territories.
quote:
Elements of the all-Russian pro-Ukrainian Russian Volunteer Corps (RDK) and Freedom of Russia Legion (LSR) conducted a raid into Belgorod Oblast on May 22. Russian sources began reporting on the morning of May 22 that a detachment of the RDK and LSR consisting of two tanks, an armored personnel carrier, and nine other armored vehicles crossed the international border and captured Kozinka, a settlement in the Grayvoron region of Belgorod Oblast within 600 meters of the border with Sumy Oblast.[1] Several Russian sources claimed that the grouping then captured the settlements of Glotovo and Gora Podol (3km and 5km from the border, respectively), although some milbloggers disputed claims that the attack completely captured Glotovo or Gora Podol, instead reporting that RDK forces only got to the Glotovo House of Culture.[2] ISW has not yet observed geolocated confirmation that the RDK or LSR reached Glotovo or Gora Podol. Geolocated footage posted on May 22 does confirm that the RDK struck a border post near Kozinka before crossing the border with at least one tank.[3] The RDK also posted footage reportedly showing the body of a Russian border guard in a border station, likely from the border crossing near Kozinka.[4] Russian milbloggers later claimed that Russian troops retook control of all three settlements.[5] Some Russian sources additionally reported that Russian forces repelled pro-Ukrainian sabotage groups near Dronovka, about 22km northwest of Kozinka.[6] The RDK additionally posted footage reportedly outside two settlements near the border area in Bryansk Oblast, but the nature of this incursion is unclear and ISW has not observed additional evidence or discourse surrounding actions in Bryansk Oblast on May 22.[7]
quote:
The raid prompted a slate of responses from local and federal Russian officials. Belgorod Oblast Governor Vyacheslav Gladkov announced on May 22 the start of a counterterrorism operation regime in order to “ensure the safety of citizens in Belgorod Oblast.”[10] While some social media users posted footage claiming to show an official evacuation from the Grayvoron region, the Belgorod Oblast Ministry of Emergency Situations reported that it never announced an evacuation and suggested that some individuals may be leaving of their own accord.[11] Kremlin Spokesperson Dmitry Peskov stated that the Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD), Federal Security Service (FSB), and Border Service reported to Russian President Vladimir Putin on an “attempt by Ukrainian saboteurs to break into Belgorod Oblast.”[12] Peskov also accused Ukraine of staging the incident in order to distract from the situation in Bakhmut.[13] A Russian milblogger additionally claimed that the Russian military leadership decided to deploy the 74th Motorized Rifle Brigade (41st Combined Arms Army, Central Military District) to the Belgorod Oblast border area in order to counter the attack.[14]
Posted on 5/22/23 at 9:04 pm to crazy4lsu
quote:
Also, why is China a threat and why is European security related to China in a direct way?
Unlike Russia, China actually is a threat to the almighty US hegemony.
They’re related only in the fact that money and effort could be better spent countering China, or a host of other things. My personal preference would be to take the money we’re spending on European security and spend it on a manned space program like we did during the space race, but that’s just because I’m a space nerd so we don’t need to go down the rabbit hole of whether or not that’s a good idea. Not the thread for that.
Also, watching Europe have to cut back on their entitlement society because they have to fund their defense so I can stop hearing liberals whine about how great European education and healthcare programs are would be a nice perk.
Posted on 5/22/23 at 9:14 pm to GeauxxxTigers23
quote:
Unlike Russia, China actually is a threat to the almighty US hegemony.
I am far less concerned about China than I was a year ago.
I sure as heck see signs that their economy is not nearly what people think. Lots of power outages shutting down continuous process manufacturing. That really screws things up.
Posted on 5/22/23 at 9:18 pm to CitizenK
quote:
They’re related only in the fact that money and effort could be better spent countering China, or a host of other things.
This is a pretty hard counter. We're showing them that about 2 trillion dollars in Chinese military spending over the last 30 years has bought them substandard weapons systems or clones of substandard weapons systems that don't function on the battlefield against a generation outdated American weapons technology.
This post was edited on 5/22/23 at 9:21 pm
Posted on 5/22/23 at 9:41 pm to BoardReader
quote:
This is a pretty hard counter. We're showing them that about 2 trillion dollars in Chinese military spending over the last 30 years has bought them substandard weapons systems or clones of substandard weapons systems that don't function on the battlefield against a generation outdated American weapons technology.
We already knew this and so did they. That’s why the switched to copying our technology and doctrines decades ago. Now they have intel on how well our shite works against their old shite. If you want to argue that they aren’t as good at copying our shite as they should be that’s fine. But China’s military is anything but stuck in the past like Russia’s is.
Posted on 5/22/23 at 9:43 pm to TigerFanatic99
quote:
I'll bet ya'll here in the think tank would have much better success converting middle of the road people like myself
Posted on 5/22/23 at 9:51 pm to GeauxxxTigers23
quote:
We already knew this and so did they. That’s why the switched to copying our technology and doctrines decades ago.
No, they didn't. At least not enough to where their doctrine didn't dictate it would outbalance the quality differential-- and they've struggled when trying to copy our technology.
The reaction from the Forbidden City when American systems ground the Russian overrun of an opponent they expected to be pushed over in a number of days, was a resounding 'Motherf...'
There's a reason why their posture towards Taiwan has gone from loud saber rattling potential cause for alarm in the weeks and months near the beginning of and preceeding the Russian invasion, to a 'I wonder what ever happened to the rhetoric from Beijing' in a year.
Posted on 5/22/23 at 9:54 pm to BoardReader
quote:
The reaction from the Forbidden City when American systems ground the Russian overrun of an opponent they expected to be pushed over in a number of days, was a resounding 'Motherf...'
Were you there? Do you have access to the intel reports on the inner workings of the Chinese military?
quote:
There's a reason why their posture towards Taiwan has gone from loud saber rattling potential cause for alarm in the weeks and months near the beginning of and preceeding the Russian invasion, to a 'I wonder what ever happened to the rhetoric from Beijing' in a year.
What are you talking about? They still saber rattle all the time. They still are running ships and jets through the strait.
Posted on 5/22/23 at 9:57 pm to GeauxxxTigers23
quote:
They still saber rattle all the time. They still are running ships and jets through the strait.
*Nothing* like they were in the weeks leading up to the invasion, when the entire crux of half the argument for not sending aide to the Ukraine was the imminent Chinese threat and the potential difficulty of having to fight against the most aggressive version of China, while supplying a European war.
Keep sliding them goalposts, though.
Posted on 5/22/23 at 10:05 pm to BoardReader
quote:
Nothing* like they were in the weeks leading up to the invasion, when the entire crux of half the argument for not sending aide to the Ukraine was the imminent Chinese threat and the potential difficulty of having to fight against the most aggressive version of China, while supplying a European war.
Dude they conducted war games in the strait less than a month ago.
quote:
Keep sliding them goalposts, though.
What goalposts am I sliding?
Posted on 5/22/23 at 10:26 pm to GeauxxxTigers23
quote:
Dude they conducted war games in the strait less than a month ago.
They regularly conduct war games-- keep in mind, they do them at differing scales, and this years were both shorter and less involved than anticipated-- and more modest than the 2021 endeavor. Even the statements released surrounding their ending of their 3 day endeavor were muted by Chinese standards.
Likewise, Xi has begun farming out the rhetoric regarding Taiwan from the Foreign Ministry to officials like the Minister of Finance.
Xi has taken to sending the Foreign Ministry after the likes of South Korea, and Justin Trudeau. He's sidelined Zhao Lijian for a reason. Wolf Warrior diplomacy has taken a kick in the balls from the Russian-Ukranian confrontation.
Even the new foreign minister, Qin Gang, has half-assedly backed down, going back to the old Chinese complaint of scattershot complaints about American policy region wide, rather than focusing solely on the Taiwanese relationship.
And yeah, you are moving some serious goal posts if you suggest this hasn't caused a significant reshaping of Chinese posture, particularly their eagerness to use force. We just saw an assessment by the CIA offered in February, discussing very openly on network TV news, that the events in Ukraine have cast doubts internally on Chinese preparedness.
The Chinese aren't going to go silent, but its useful to measure the rhetoric, where it came from, and actual Chinese actions against its previous incarnation, and frankly, while its still not good, its definitely muted.
This post was edited on 5/22/23 at 10:27 pm
Posted on 5/22/23 at 10:29 pm to GeauxxxTigers23
quote:
What goalposts am I sliding?
You aren't.
My point is that the Chinese economy is not what we think it is. Their influence in Europe has been ruptured by positioning themselves on Russia's side in the beginning.
When Russia's crude oil being sold below cost because Putin is that desperate begins to be shut in. Someone is going to have to come in to rework all those sanded up wells after Russia goes tits up.
Edit: after posting this a friend called. Russian refined products traders have been contacting him to see if he can sell for 10 cents on the dollar. That's 50% off market price and 40% for him to find any buyer he can.
How many months before Russia goes tits up?
This post was edited on 5/23/23 at 12:22 am
Posted on 5/22/23 at 10:48 pm to kingbob
quote:
My argument: if Japan didn’t have to worry about embargoes from Western nations, they wouldn’t have needed to attack western colonies to get access to those resources.
Dude what? Japan was a massive pusher of the East Asian co prosperity sphere which directly called for ousting western powers from Asia
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