re: Latest Updates: Russia-Ukraine Conflict

If Luka dies, I expect armed conflict in Belarus. I don't know to what extent or who would win (though I would bet on Putin).

Honestly Luka dying could work in the favor of Ukraine but only if their people resist in large numbers. Putin would just try to annex Belarus back into Russia just like he’s trying to take over Ukraine to make it part of the old Soviet borders. I suspect the Belarusian military would either lay down their weapons in the face of a Russian attack or just willingly join them so it’s a small chance that would help Ukraine. If the military would not go with Putin thought that would be one more problem and area where Putin would have to distribute his forces which would thin out the forces in Ukraine. This is all for nothing though, I expect Luka gets better soon. Putin would never intentionally try to take him out when he would get down and kiss his feet on command.

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If Luka dies, I expect armed conflict in Belarus.

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Yes, if there is regime change in Belarus soon there will certainly be a violent struggle for power, but I would think this would be limited to the political factions in Minsk and be over quickly. It may have started already.

I would not bet on their military joining Putin. They didn’t do that when it actually looked attractive at the beginning of the war and that isn’t going to change. There is a lot more support for Ukraine in Belarus than we realize.

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Oil prices will soar of course but otherwise a desirable outcome

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Oil prices haven't soared since the panic from a year ago quieted down.

Does Russia have the combat power available to send into Belarus ?

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Does Russia have the combat power available to send into Belarus ?

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They have the men. Whether they have much more than APCs and cannon fodder troops is questionable. My guess is they won’t take anyone worth a shite from Ukraine.

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Didn’t Belarus “give” Russia a large allotment of tanks and APC late last year as well as munitions? Not sure they much of an army other then on paper. Tanking out Luka can be used as a Russian false flag. Blame on Ukraine/NATO then quickly move troops in to secure “peace”. New puppet in his place/Russia governor appointed.

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Luka IS Russia's puppet. The Belarus military is all about keeping the public in line. The majority (instead of plurality) loathe Luka

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Rolling I. The tanks is right up ussr/Russian wheelhouse

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I do understand your general point, just curious what tanks exactly they will have to roll in. If they’re pulling out of mothballs to send to front, whats left to roll into Belarus?

And right on queue...

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Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy and the head of the United Transition Office of Belarus Sviatlana Tsikhanouskaya met at the Charlemagne Prize ceremony in Germany.

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Following disputed 2020 Belarusian presidential election, opposition forces, led by presidential candidate Sviatlana Tsikhanouskaya formed a Coordination Council to facilitate a transition to democracy in the country. Tsikhanouskaya and several other members of the council were forced to leave Belarus or were placed under arrest during protests that broke out following the election.

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Rybar reports that Ukraine has captured Kuzemivka, a town northwest of Svatove. There hasn't been much movement on this section of the front for a long while.

So far, I haven't read any reports of Leopards or Bradleys there, but maybe we'll see those soon. Or maybe this is just due to worn-out Russian forces and the Ukrainian troops there being given a little more ammo.



EDIT: Rybar has taken this map down and said that the information was false.