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re: Latest Updates: Russia-Ukraine Conflict
Posted on 5/13/23 at 7:43 pm to OutsideObserver
Posted on 5/13/23 at 7:43 pm to OutsideObserver
Good find. I am anxious to see what emerges in the next 24 hours.
I still want to understand how these attacks are happening so deep in Ukraine
I still want to understand how these attacks are happening so deep in Ukraine
2
Posted on 5/13/23 at 7:58 pm to Chromdome35
quote:
I still want to understand how these attacks are happening so deep in Ukraine
Kinzhal can still get past the vast majority of Ukrainian air defense -- Patriot shot it down ... when it aimed right at the Patriot. Russia just doesn't have many Kinzhals.
Posted on 5/13/23 at 8:01 pm to Chromdome35
quote:
According to information, the value of the ammunition destroyed in the Khmelnytsky ammunition depot is about 500 million dollars.
That video was already credited to be the "fuel".
Who knows what the truth is?
Posted on 5/13/23 at 8:04 pm to Chromdome35
Ukraine is a very large country. And as such makes it hard to defend for air defense.
Most of the air defense weapons NATO has given them are likely grouped around key areas for logistics/population protection (Liviv, Kyiv, Odessa) and other points depending on where the ammo dumps are for the front. There are likely then to be gaps where coverage is.
Germany's rail workers were proposing a strike. It's been called off for now but might be something to watch. The recent announcements of materiel may have some delays getting to Ukraine unless they fly them in (certainly possible).
LINK
Most of the air defense weapons NATO has given them are likely grouped around key areas for logistics/population protection (Liviv, Kyiv, Odessa) and other points depending on where the ammo dumps are for the front. There are likely then to be gaps where coverage is.
Germany's rail workers were proposing a strike. It's been called off for now but might be something to watch. The recent announcements of materiel may have some delays getting to Ukraine unless they fly them in (certainly possible).
LINK
Posted on 5/13/23 at 8:21 pm to GOP_Tiger
ISW Update
quote:
Note: The data cutoff for this product was 3pm ET on May 13. ISW will cover subsequent reports in the May 14 Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment.
quote:
Key Takeaways
Ukrainian forces continue to counterattack in the Bakhmut area amid unconfirmed claims of further marginal Ukrainian gains southwest of the city as of May 13.
Russian forces conducted a Shahed-131/136 drone strike against Ukraine on the night of May 12 to 13.
Russian media reported that two Russian Mi-8 helicopters, an Su-34 bomber, and an Su-35 fighter crashed in Bryansk Oblast on May 13, which some Russian sources claimed was caused by Ukrainian air defenses.
Russian sources claimed that Ukrainian forces struck rear Russian areas in Luhansk Oblast with British Storm Shadow cruise missiles on May 12 and 13, prompting heightened Russian anxiety about potential Ukrainian abilities to target Russian logistics.
Russian President Vladimir Putin’s insistence on conducting the war in Ukraine in the style of the “Great Patriotic Special Military Operation” has opened the door for several hardline actors to advocate for the institutionalization of increasingly Stalinist domestic policies.
Former Pacific Fleet Commander Admiral Sergey Avakyants reportedly received an appointment to lead a new Russian force generation organization called “Voin” (“Warrior”), which reportedly replaced Russia’s legacy Russian Volunteer Society for Assistance to the Army, Aviation, and Navy of Russia (DOSAAF).
Belarusian President Lukashenko was reportedly hospitalized at a presidential hospital in Minsk on May 13.
Russian forces continued limited ground attacks northeast of Kupyansk and northwest of Svatove.
Russian forces made marginal gains within Bakhmut and continued limited offensive operations along the Avdiivka-Donetsk front.
Russian forces targeted Ukrainian positions in southern Ukraine west of Hulyaipole.
Russian forces are reportedly replenishing units with mobilized personnel.
Russian authorities continue efforts to deport Ukrainian children to Russia under the guise of “rest and relaxation” schemes.
Posted on 5/13/23 at 8:36 pm to StormyMcMan
2nd round of missles inbound and reports of explosions in Kherson and Sumy
Posted on 5/13/23 at 10:50 pm to StormyMcMan
I was sitting on the patio earlier nursing a nice dram of Bunnahabhain thinking about how people complain that there is no war footage when it is the best documented (from a raw footage POV) war in the history of man. It is a situation where the proffer is so hyperbolic it is hard to even counter. When I came in I found this on Rob Lee's Twitter: It is video matched up from both sides that shows an old school Russian MT-LB getting hit with three drones. The first shows the cope cages do on occasion save lives, then the second injures and runs off the crew and the third takes out the MT-LB. The after video of the MT-LB is later when it is burned out. The idea that footage from both sides has been linked up to show both POVs is nuts to me. I suppose the "there is no war crew" would just say it is proof that it is all a soundstage or some nonsense.
Twitter
This post was edited on 5/13/23 at 11:07 pm
Posted on 5/13/23 at 11:11 pm to Obtuse1
One thing that I was not aware of but in conversation with a biz Russian biz friend who is head of a subsidiary here for the Cypriot parent company (they are all Russians) and who was a former director in finance for Gazprom in the early 2000's to 2007 when he moved to the US.
A few weeks ago we discussed how badly the German chemical industry was long before 2020. He was opposed to any investment in Nordstream due that way back when. German chemical industry was already on the cusp of losing money annually. BTW, he is no Putin fan but would like to visit his parents in Moscow. He spent most of 2022 in one of the former Soviet "Stans" setting up a business for the investors who he works for.
A few weeks ago we discussed how badly the German chemical industry was long before 2020. He was opposed to any investment in Nordstream due that way back when. German chemical industry was already on the cusp of losing money annually. BTW, he is no Putin fan but would like to visit his parents in Moscow. He spent most of 2022 in one of the former Soviet "Stans" setting up a business for the investors who he works for.
Posted on 5/14/23 at 12:19 am to Obtuse1
Whoa baby what’s this:
Belarusian President Lukashenko was reportedly hospitalized at a presidential hospital in Minsk on May 13.
Belarusian President Lukashenko was reportedly hospitalized at a presidential hospital in Minsk on May 13.
Posted on 5/14/23 at 12:19 am to Obtuse1
quote:
Lukashenko was reportedly hospitalized
Uh-oh. Putin's playground.
Posted on 5/14/23 at 12:27 am to TutHillTiger
quote:
Belarusian President Lukashenko was reportedly hospitalized
The connections to Putin's puppet strings got infected.
Posted on 5/14/23 at 1:47 am to CitizenK
quote:
Who knows what the truth is?
No one.
That can be said for a lot of what we "know" of this entire war.
Posted on 5/14/23 at 5:14 am to TutHillTiger
quote:
Belarusian President Lukashenko was reportedly hospitalized at a presidential hospital in Minsk on May 13.
He got sick in Moscow on May 9th and left the Victory Day festivities early to fly back to Minsk.
I think that it goes with saying that Lukashenko's death would likely trigger a civil war and/or direct Russian occupation. I don't think that it would be simple for Putin to replace Luka with another puppet.
Posted on 5/14/23 at 5:45 am to GOP_Tiger
An interesting fact. Russia spent almost a year and no telling how many men and how many rubbles of material in their attempt to take Bakhmut. Bakmut is almost the same size and had almost the exact same pre-war population as Kenner.
Posted on 5/14/23 at 5:52 am to Obtuse1
British Defence Intelligence
INTELLIGENCE UPDATE
UPDATE ON UKRAINE 14 May 2023
On paper, the Russian Combined Grouping of Forces (CGF) in Ukraine is similarly organised to the invasion force of 446 days ago. It still likely consists of over 200,000 personnel organised into around 70 combat regiments and brigades divided into five Groups of Forces. It still struggles with limited freedom to conduct air operations.
However, in February 2022 it consisted of professional soldiers; was largely equipped with reasonably modern vehicles; and had been regularly exercised, aspiring to complex, joint operations. Now the force is mostly poorly trained mobilised reservists and increasingly reliant on antiquated equipment, with many of its units severely under-strength. It routinely only conducts very simple, infantry-based operations.
Critically, it is unlikely that CGF has been able to generate a large, capable, mobile reserve to respond to emerging operational challenges. It is unlikely to be an organisation which will effectively cohere large-scale military effect along the 1,200 km front line under stress.
INTELLIGENCE UPDATE
UPDATE ON UKRAINE 14 May 2023
On paper, the Russian Combined Grouping of Forces (CGF) in Ukraine is similarly organised to the invasion force of 446 days ago. It still likely consists of over 200,000 personnel organised into around 70 combat regiments and brigades divided into five Groups of Forces. It still struggles with limited freedom to conduct air operations.
However, in February 2022 it consisted of professional soldiers; was largely equipped with reasonably modern vehicles; and had been regularly exercised, aspiring to complex, joint operations. Now the force is mostly poorly trained mobilised reservists and increasingly reliant on antiquated equipment, with many of its units severely under-strength. It routinely only conducts very simple, infantry-based operations.
Critically, it is unlikely that CGF has been able to generate a large, capable, mobile reserve to respond to emerging operational challenges. It is unlikely to be an organisation which will effectively cohere large-scale military effect along the 1,200 km front line under stress.
This post was edited on 5/14/23 at 7:07 am
Posted on 5/14/23 at 6:12 am to cypher
I think the Brits have it down correctly, a significant portion of the Russian soldiers they have in place are poorly trained and equipped and simply don’t want to be there.
They need to launch the CO soon an take out Putins bridge. I guess then he will be murdered or flee to some shithole country.
Oil prices will soar of course but otherwise a desirable outcome
They need to launch the CO soon an take out Putins bridge. I guess then he will be murdered or flee to some shithole country.
Oil prices will soar of course but otherwise a desirable outcome
Posted on 5/14/23 at 6:36 am to TutHillTiger
LINK
Klishchiivka is SSW of Bakhmut. As I said yesterday, if Ukraine were to retake the town, then Wagner would be in trouble inside the city, as they would have a fully exposed flank.
EDIT: LINK
quote:
Commander of RU 4th Motorized Brigade, Col. V. Makarov, and the deputy commander of the Army Corps for Military-political work, Col. Y. Brovko, were killed near #Bakhmut, reports RU state media RIA Novosti, with reference to the Ministry of Defense.
Klishchiivka is SSW of Bakhmut. As I said yesterday, if Ukraine were to retake the town, then Wagner would be in trouble inside the city, as they would have a fully exposed flank.
EDIT: LINK
quote:
Russian mil-bloggers also claim that the commander of the 124th brigade has been killed, plus around 20-40 KIA.
This post was edited on 5/14/23 at 6:42 am
Posted on 5/14/23 at 8:06 am to StormyMcMan
quote:
explosions in Kherson
Are they just hitting Kherson because they can… or is there a build up there as well?
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