re: Latest Updates: Russia-Ukraine Conflict

quote:

---

Strelkov (Girkin) throws shite on everyone

---

All this infighting will do nothing but make it easier for the Ukrainians to push them out. Don't know who's left,right, or in the rear? Isn't that elementary level military academy stuff?

The M777s are mostly made to be towed by the FMTV trucks, the same truck that the HIMARS is fitted to. The Humvee is a tough son of a bitch but just not quite big enough to pack the 777.

quote:

---

This is my list of sources on Twitter for news on the war.

---

Holy smokes. You are organized.

The last package included artillery systems but didn’t specify which system that would be. I’ve wondered why they didn’t send older M198s if they had any that could be brought back to service to save the M777s for our own army but maybe they just sent more 105 mm guns. I can’t see them sending too many more 777s. We just don’t have that many to send more than what we already did with the 130 or so that we gave Ukraine.

You are correct, I evidently looked at old data. Thank you. I will change my post.

Meduza (independent Russian outlet now reporting from Latvia)

Meduza’s sources say the Kremlin is losing patience with Evgeny Prigozhin’s outbursts

quote:

---

Sources close to the Putin administration have told Meduza that Kremlin officials view Prigozhin’s statements about the Russian Defense Ministry as a “serious threat.” One source said that Prigozhin is currently acting “not as part of the same team and not out of the same interests” as the Russian authorities.

“He has his own project, Bakhmut, and he’s currently doing everything for its sake. But that’s a personal project, aimed at giving him more influence over the Defense Ministry, so that Wagner becomes the main force behind the victory,” said the source.

Prigozhin’s statement about the “happy grandpa” was received even more negatively in the Kremlin, according to the source. “He can say later on, of course, that he was talking about [Defense Minister Sergey] Shoigu or some theoretical layman, but we know what conclusions people will draw,” he said. One source believes that Prigozhin was indeed talking about Putin, but another said that the statement can’t be considered a “direct attack” on the president.

Meduza’s sources close to the Putin administration said Prigozhin’s behavior may be linked to a “personal promise” he made to Vladimir Putin that Wagner Group would capture Bakhmut by a certain date. The sources don’t know exactly when this date would be, but they speculated that Prigozhin might be “missing the deadline” and is nervous as a result. The Ukrainian military previously reported that pro-Russian forces hoped to take control of Bakhmut by May 9 (which they failed to do).

“Because of this personal promise, he’s throwing the regular troops under the bus and making provocative statements. It’s unconventional behavior,” one source said. Multiple sources told Meduza that Prigozhin has crossed a “red line” with his statements.

According to the sources, the paramilitary cartel leader’s actions could get him into serious trouble, his close links to Russia’s top leadership notwithstanding. His “protectors,” the sources told Meduza, include Russian National Guard Director Viktor Zolotov as well as Tula Governor and former Putin bodyguard Alexey Dyumin. Until recently, billionaire and longtime Putin ally Yury Kovalchuk also counted himself among Prigozhin’s defenders, but according to Meduza’s sources, he’s begun distancing himself from the Wagner Group founder.

---

With the counteroffensive likely coming soon, does anyone want to irresponsibly speculate with some wild predictions? I do.

My guess is that the new mechanized brigades and "offensive guard" brigades will have some spread across the front lines. In other words, at least one mech brigade will attack in the area of Kreminna north to the border, and another one will strike somewhere in the area from Bakhmut down to Avdiivka/Marinka.

These are essentially diversionary/fixing attacks. But don't forget that the Kharkiv offensive started out as a diversionary attack and ended up being the greatest success Ukraine has had in this war. If one of these attains a breakthrough, reserve forces could still be poured through to exploit it.

Indeed, I will expect Ukrainian units all along the front to attack at the beginning, to induce maximum confusion.

What will soon seem to be the "main attack" will happen in Zaporizhzhia Oblast as a push towards Berdyansk. Ukraine would have to attack uphill in part of this area, but the Russian defenses are lighter.

Then, after a week, when the Russian command has committed its reserves to that area, Ukraine pushes its 100 Rosomaks across the Dnipro. The obvious crossings are at Kakhovka and at the Antinovsky Bridge in Kherson, but that's where Russia will be anticipating the crossing, so I think it happens further east, at somewhere like Dudchany.

Then, a pontoon bridge is erected, and Ukraine makes what really turns out to be the main push: straight for Crimea.

Crimea, right now, is not heavily defended. If Storm Shadown blows up Kerch, then Russia will be unable to get significant reinforcements there quickly. The same 100 Rosomaks that forded the Dnipro can ford the Syvash lagoons and create a pincer on either Perekop or Chonhar.

I don't think that Ukraine is going to play a "safe" offensive. I think that they are planning big. Doesn't mean that it will work, but I don't think that they will do what everyone expects.

Anyway, if I were Zaluzhny, that's what my plan would be. What's yours?

IMO, i think a main offensive east of Tokmak would achieve the type of victory Ukraine needs.

1) it cuts the land bridge.
2) tokmak is a hub with respect to roads and has a major east west rail line
3) it a point of longest supply lines from the east and from the south.
4) enough of a push will put the ports at Meriupol and Berdyans'k in artillery range, taking away the Azov sea
5) it would force russia to pull back from left bank (east bank) and Melitopol back to Crimea
60 ukraine will be able to both threaten Crimea with a smaller force and then relocate troop to a now mostly eastern front.

key will be to hold russia troops in the east and keep forces positioned on the left bank to defend a possible river crossing (think amphibious landing fake from Gulf War I)

to me this is the most straight forward plan of attack, but it may alos be how russia sees it as well. what i see as overriding, is russia feels it would lose the most in the east if there was a breakthrough then in the south, and i feel that is where they will concentrate forces. Karkiv offensive routed them last year, and if not for such a great distance and Ukraine having to regroup/supply they feared a route back to pre 2022 lines in the east.

Ukriane will continue to take out LOC, atrillery, and air defenses and will soon start sending probing and recon in force attacks to look for weaknesses/pin down reserves. i agree they will have their forces spread in multiple locations but i believe the bulk with be in the south.

...then again, i do not have access to the intel nor do i have access to the US war gaming data....

quote:

---

They have some trenches, but there are only about 10,000 Russian troops in Crimea at present

---

I'm not disagreeing with you, I just hadn't seen any concrete numbers of Russian forces there, but they have more than trenches. They've built up layered defenses and a expanded a couple of bases (maybe what we Americans would call a post or COP). A few of them have been expanded significantly since January according to satellite photos.

quote:

---

This is just my take, but I think Ukraine wants Crimea NOW,

---

Like I said, Zelensky said as much last month in Stuttgart. And I believe that is the ultimate goal. But I also think they want to see how far they can push their successes on the battlefield before they sit down to negotiate. Why wouldn't they? Unless it becomes a meat grinder that just isn't worth the squeeze and they can win elsewhere and then sit down and concede only the one thing they had already lost 8 years ago.

I'm just trying to not get too optimistic about what's to come. I think they should absolutely try and take back Crimea, I just am not as optimistic as some seem to be in thinking it will be another route like Kharkiv or Izyum and Lyman. Crimea is THE thing Russia really wants.


ETA: Not sure why the immediate downvotes for me and you discussing this lol

This is what I think it could look like

Ukraine feints in the east, and attacks in the south towards Crimea, while blocking a flanking attack coming out of the Donetsk region.


There is another option that hasn't been discussed and that would be to attack in the East and try to cut the supply lines that are serving both Crimea and the Donbass.

If Ukraine could sever the logistics lines going south towards Rostov on Don, then they cut off the entirety of the Russian forces in the Donbass region and Crimea along with the Russian forces south of Kherson.

Once the supply lines were interdicted, then they could attack south across the Dnipro and hit Crimea from the landbridge. Russia could still supply, but would have to route much further to the east.

Keep in mind that the German Defense Minister said recently that it was ok if Ukraine attacked Russian soil directly.
https://kyivindependent.com/german-defense-minister-says-it-is-normal-for-ukraine-to/

quote:

---

German Defense Minister Boris Pistorius has supported the idea of "limited encroachments" onto Russian territory, such as blocking supply routes, Zeit Online reported on April 21.

Given the circumstances of the war it is "completely normal for (Ukraine) to move into enemy territory, for example, to block supply routes," Pistorius said, as quoted by Zeit.

---