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Started By
Message
re: Latest Updates: Russia-Ukraine Conflict
Posted on 4/19/23 at 8:07 pm to GeauxxxTigers23
Posted on 4/19/23 at 8:07 pm to GeauxxxTigers23
quote:
There was never going to be a spring offensive. Ukraine doesn’t have the men or equipment available yet.
You seem so sure of your opinion
2
Posted on 4/19/23 at 8:22 pm to notiger1997
It would not surprise me if there is no spring offense. It would surprise me if an offensive is not currently being planned for execution this spring/summer.
Posted on 4/19/23 at 8:53 pm to notiger1997
quote:
You seem so sure of your opinion
Well I’m pretty sure I posted that seem “opinion on January or February and spring is almost over so I am pretty sure of that opinion. The west cannot keep up with the demand for bullets from Ukraine.
Posted on 4/19/23 at 9:02 pm to GeauxxxTigers23
quote:
spring is almost over
Wut
Spring started less than a month ago.
Posted on 4/19/23 at 9:08 pm to jeffsdad
quote:
I saw a video of what I think was the sole Russian survivor. He had to be dug out by the Us. Said there were 30 of them there and he was the only survivor.
quote:
Said there were 30 of them there and he was the only survivor.
That's nuts and that whole situation was nuts.
Had it been me in that trench I would have GTFO long before being entombed. There didn't seem to be any machine gun fire and no infantry close, I would have taken my chances sprinting across watermelon fields and dodging drone grenades vs getting pounded by HEAT rounds. I am also more scared of a fricking tank at 20m than I am of some drunk Russian blocking force.
Yes Sir, I know the OPORD said to hold at all costs but I issued my own FRAGO that said live to fight another day, I ain't about that lost cause life.
Posted on 4/19/23 at 9:18 pm to lostinbr
quote:GT must base it on when LSU's Spring practices begin and end.
Wut
Spring started less than a month ago.
Posted on 4/19/23 at 9:25 pm to GeauxxxTigers23
The ground is still muddy and Ukraine has a LOT of wheeled equipment for speed and mobility to take advantage of any breakthroughs. No it does not have the bulk of it men in the fight.
Posted on 4/19/23 at 9:28 pm to SiriusBraveFan
quote:
Are we in the calm before the storm right now or what?
I think that almost everyone expects the offensive to start in earnest sometime next month.
I do, though, read very different ideas of what the offensive will look like.
Some look at it as a kind of D-Day, when massive assaults in several supporting sectors will attempt to breach Russian fortified positions so that others can then pour through the gaps, cause damage in the rear, and keep Russia running until reaching the Sea of Azov.
Other experts I read have been predicting an initial series of minor offensive attacks across a very broad front in the south, as Ukraine systematically takes bits of territory while searching for Russian weaknesses to exploit.
Posted on 4/19/23 at 9:30 pm to Obtuse1
Well, thats the first time my initial thinking was correct and in-line with a military mind. Yep, two tanks with backup infrantry against me with 30 riflemen with hand grenades.....calls for a watermelon patch run.
This post was edited on 4/20/23 at 6:00 am
Posted on 4/20/23 at 2:40 am to cypher
quote:If accurate, this would be significant in regards to opening areas of future Ukraininan offensives.
However, there is a realistic possibility that Russia has reduced troop numbers and is decreasing offensive action around Donetsk city, most likely to divert resources towards the Bakhmut sector.
It seems that the planning for the coming Ukrainian offensive includes determining strength of logistics in an area as well as troop numbers and defensive positions. The Ukrainians must isolate the defenders. How fast can the Russians get support to an area under attack and how susceptible will that support be to Ukrainian weapons while being moved to the front?
In this regard, I think initially we will see a number of small attacks to test the Russian logistical reaction in each area. A shell game, no pun intended.
Finally, to complete this wish list, coordinating these small attacks in an area could leave the Russians with a significant number of troops and weapons behind the lines in transit when the Big One comes.
Posted on 4/20/23 at 2:40 am to cypher
Double post.
This post was edited on 4/20/23 at 2:42 am
Posted on 4/20/23 at 2:41 am to cypher
The elusive triple post.
This post was edited on 4/20/23 at 2:42 am
Posted on 4/20/23 at 5:53 am to RLDSC FAN
British Defence Intelligence
INTELLIGENCE UPDATE
UPDATE ON UKRAINE 20 April 2023
On 18 April 2023, the Kremlin issued a press release on President Putin's visit to Russian-occupied southern Ukraine. Using the Russian spelling of Ukraine's Dnipro river, the release described the president as having visited the 'Dnipr Group of Forces.
This is one of the first references to the existence of a Dnipr Group of Forces (DGF). Russia uses the term 'group of forces' in a specific way, indicating a large, task-organised operational formation.
Early in the invasion, the Russian force was organised into groups of forces each aligned to their home military districts in Russia, for example, the Western and Central Groups of Forces. The existence of an apparently new DGF suggest that the original force organisation has evolved, probably due to heavy losses. DGF's mission is likely to defend the southern sector of the occupied zone, and especially the south-western flank which is currently marked by the Dnipro river.
INTELLIGENCE UPDATE
UPDATE ON UKRAINE 20 April 2023
On 18 April 2023, the Kremlin issued a press release on President Putin's visit to Russian-occupied southern Ukraine. Using the Russian spelling of Ukraine's Dnipro river, the release described the president as having visited the 'Dnipr Group of Forces.
This is one of the first references to the existence of a Dnipr Group of Forces (DGF). Russia uses the term 'group of forces' in a specific way, indicating a large, task-organised operational formation.
Early in the invasion, the Russian force was organised into groups of forces each aligned to their home military districts in Russia, for example, the Western and Central Groups of Forces. The existence of an apparently new DGF suggest that the original force organisation has evolved, probably due to heavy losses. DGF's mission is likely to defend the southern sector of the occupied zone, and especially the south-western flank which is currently marked by the Dnipro river.
Posted on 4/20/23 at 6:19 am to cypher
LINK
This was my initial guess as to what was happening in Sudan; now, it's confirmed. And the reason it was my guess is that this is what Russia/Wagner have been doing across Africa. They support some warlord who seizes power, and Russia/Wagner get money or mining or other natural resources in return. Here's an AP story from January about Wagner in Mali:
quote:
As fighting continues in Sudan, derailing a transition to democratic rule that was slated for this month, commentators are noting Russian connections to the paramilitary Rapid Support Forces (RSF) that sparked the crisis by apparently attempting a coup d’etat on April 15. The Kremlin’s notorious mercenary force, the Wagner Group, is said to be engaged in illegal gold mining operations in Darfur and Kordofan regions in collaboration with the RSF. Operations at a mine owned by RSF warlord Mohammed Hamdan Dagolo AKA “Hemeti” in the Nuba Mountains of South Kordofan state have sparked protests by locals over land-grabbing and pollution. The arrangement points to a Kremlin-backed design to make the RSF economically independent of the Sudanese state in preparation for an eventual seizure of power.
This was my initial guess as to what was happening in Sudan; now, it's confirmed. And the reason it was my guess is that this is what Russia/Wagner have been doing across Africa. They support some warlord who seizes power, and Russia/Wagner get money or mining or other natural resources in return. Here's an AP story from January about Wagner in Mali:
quote:
Alou Diallo says he was drinking tea with his family one morning last month when groups of “white soldiers” invaded his village in central Mali, setting fire to houses and gunning down people suspected of being Islamic extremists. He scrambled to safety in the bush, but his son was shot and wounded while fleeing, then was finished off as he lay on the ground.
Posted on 4/20/23 at 9:28 am to GOP_Tiger
Bloomberg
So, it's not going to happen anytime soon, because Hungary and some other EU members won't agree. Right now, this is more about shifting the Overton window.
quote:
Some of Ukraine’s key allies including the US are considering moving closer to an outright ban on most exports to Russia, a potentially significant tightening of economic pressure on President Vladimir Putin over his war.
Group of Seven officials are discussing the idea ahead of a leaders summit in Japan in May, according to people familiar with the matter, and the aim would be to include European Union member states in the crackdown. The proposal is still being debated and could change, the people said.
The approach being discussed by diplomatic envoys would flip the existing sanctions regime around, with all exports banned unless exempted, the people said. Under the current criteria all exports are allowed unless sanctioned.
If G-7 leaders endorse the move at the summit, exactly what would be excluded would then have to be agreed, with medicines and agricultural products — including food — very likely to stay exempted, one of the people said.
But there are potentially serious obstacles to implementation. To come into force in the EU, the new criteria would need to be adopted by all members, and that would set off a testy debate given the likely backlash from companies that still export goods to Russia, alongside the risk of retaliation by Moscow.
quote:
Germany, Italy and Poland remain the top three European goods exporters to Russia, Trade Data Monitor data show. Across the G-7, non-medicine and non-agriculture products that could be most affected include cars, chocolate, beer, footwear, flowers and make-up.
Even with the existing curbs, Russia has managed to import some sanctioned US and European components via third countries. That is putting an increased focus by the G-7 and EU on tackling sanctions circumvention, especially enhancing the monitoring of so-called dual-use
So, it's not going to happen anytime soon, because Hungary and some other EU members won't agree. Right now, this is more about shifting the Overton window.
Posted on 4/20/23 at 11:23 am to GOP_Tiger
Another K2 Battalion produced video of Russians absolutely sucking at trying to assault an enemy position. Russian reinforcements arrive to a checkpoint that obviously been zeroed in on and just sit under incoming artillery, mortars, and grenades. One guy gets up and takes off, but he only does so after half the squad has been wiped, and it looked like he went the wrong way.
I just don't understand how they don't have any competent squad leader that would say "Guys, we might need to turn around and rethink this. They've obviously got our ingress and egress route targeted. Let's got look at the map and see if there's another way in and try again tomorrow." But nope, they just sit there...
*Viewer discretion advised/possibly NSFW as it shows dead guys from the drone or surveillance tower that is recording the encounter.*
Ditch of Death: Part 1 from K2
I just don't understand how they don't have any competent squad leader that would say "Guys, we might need to turn around and rethink this. They've obviously got our ingress and egress route targeted. Let's got look at the map and see if there's another way in and try again tomorrow." But nope, they just sit there...
*Viewer discretion advised/possibly NSFW as it shows dead guys from the drone or surveillance tower that is recording the encounter.*
Ditch of Death: Part 1 from K2
Posted on 4/20/23 at 12:49 pm to IAmNERD
They got us now. Secret intercepts of US troops talking on the radio in Ukraine. I knew we were there.
Twitter sound file
You can take the boy outta Moscow but you can take the Moscow out of his accent.
Twitter sound file
You can take the boy outta Moscow but you can take the Moscow out of his accent.
Posted on 4/20/23 at 2:20 pm to Obtuse1
Europe’s Air-Traffic Agency Under Attack From Pro-Russian Hackers
quote:
Europe’s air-traffic control agency said Thursday that it was under attack from pro-Russian hackers amid fears that Moscow could interfere with the region’s critical infrastructure as its confrontation with the West escalates.
The cyberattack on the agency’s website started on April 19, a spokeswoman for the European Organisation for the Safety of Air Navigation, also known as Eurocontrol, said, adding that it wasn’t affecting the agency’s air-traffic control activities.
“Since 19 April, the Eurocontrol website has been under attack by pro-Russian hackers. The attack is causing interruptions to the website and web availability,” the spokeswoman said. “There has been no impact on European aviation.”
A senior Eurocontrol official familiar with the situation said that the agency had ringfenced its operational systems and that air-traffic safety wasn’t at risk. But internal and external communication had been affected, the person added, forcing some of the roughly 2,000 employees to use WebEx and other commercial tools to communicate.
“It’s been a heavy cyber-battle and while operations are entirely safe, doing other things has been difficult,” the official said.
The agency’s website was intermittently unreachable on Thursday evening.
Eurocontrol is a critical part of air-traffic safety in Europe, managing cross-border traffic across airspaces covered by national air-traffic authorities. In addition, its office in Maastricht in the Netherlands provides direct air-traffic control in the upper airspace for that country as well as for Belgium, Luxembourg and northwest Germany for both civilian and military flights.
European authorities have grown concerned that Russia could attack parts of Europe’s transport, communications, and energy infrastructure since it attacked Ukraine in February last year, sparking its biggest confrontation with the West since the Cold War.
Posted on 4/20/23 at 2:26 pm to StormyMcMan
But Putin is just protecting Russia because NATO and the US crossed a line in 2013. The West makes him do these things.
Posted on 4/20/23 at 2:35 pm to IAmNERD
quote:
I just don't understand how they don't have any competent squad leader that would say "Guys, we might need to turn around and rethink this. They've obviously got our ingress and egress route targeted. Let's got look at the map and see if there's another way in and try again tomorrow." But nope, they just sit there...
Guys who lack initiative is a feature, not a bug. Subordinates who think for themselves is dangerous to the status quo.
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