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re: Latest Updates: Russia-Ukraine Conflict
Posted on 3/31/23 at 3:11 pm to BoardReader
Posted on 3/31/23 at 3:11 pm to BoardReader
Full mobilization would require admitting this is beyond a *limited* special military operation.
0
Posted on 3/31/23 at 3:27 pm to Coeur du Tigre
quote:
One of the mysteries to me is that a sociopath like Putin can be hyper aggressive about everything yet still refuses to commence a full wartime mobilization. In the coming list of reasons why Russia lost this war, his fear of mobilizations will be in the top three.
Russians are really good at revolutions and overthrowing autocratic leaders. They get really antsy when when their boys are dying in wars that aren't really going their way.
Posted on 3/31/23 at 3:36 pm to IAmNERD
Right. But the betting odds on Ukraine's spring offensive have to be pretty good. Personally, though I expect it to be bloody and costly for Ukraine, I definitely expect them to succeed.
And then what? As Western governments then gather in more Ramstein meetings to plan for the weapons that Ukraine will need for a late summer/early fall offensive, Putin will realize that he needs more men and order another mass mobilization, in order to try to prevent the fall of Mariupol and/or Crimea.
Whereas, if he had ordered another mass mobilization in February and hadn't wasted hundreds of tanks and tens of thousands of artillery shells in his own offensive that took very little, Putin would have had a decent chance at preventing any significant Ukrainian gains this year and in generating a frozen conflict.
Putin has always overestimated Russian troops and bitten off more than he can chew. The lack of realism from the Russian command will be discussed by historians for decades.
And then what? As Western governments then gather in more Ramstein meetings to plan for the weapons that Ukraine will need for a late summer/early fall offensive, Putin will realize that he needs more men and order another mass mobilization, in order to try to prevent the fall of Mariupol and/or Crimea.
Whereas, if he had ordered another mass mobilization in February and hadn't wasted hundreds of tanks and tens of thousands of artillery shells in his own offensive that took very little, Putin would have had a decent chance at preventing any significant Ukrainian gains this year and in generating a frozen conflict.
Putin has always overestimated Russian troops and bitten off more than he can chew. The lack of realism from the Russian command will be discussed by historians for decades.
Posted on 3/31/23 at 4:15 pm to GOP_Tiger
quote:
And then what?
That's the crux of the dillema, though; full mobilization breaks the Russian system right now. Partial mobilization might not give you enough oomph to do the job, but at least it lets other externalities, from the inconsistency of politics in allied nations, to Ukranian national resolve, to potentially break.
There is absolutely not a good answer from the Putin point of view, but there is an answer that is categorically worse today, and worse tomorrow. So he takes the one that's less bad today, and theoretically potentially less bad tomorrow.
Posted on 3/31/23 at 4:20 pm to GOP_Tiger
quote:
And then what? As Western governments then gather in more Ramstein meetings to plan for the weapons that Ukraine will need for a late summer/early fall offensive, Putin will realize that he needs more men and order another mass mobilization, in order to try to prevent the fall of Mariupol and/or Crimea.
Should Ukraine prove that it has combined arms capability with reserves to exploit any breakthroughs, it's all over but crying for Russia as Mariupol falls in days.
Posted on 3/31/23 at 7:35 pm to CitizenK
isw
quote:
Russian President Vladimir Putin approved a new Russian Foreign Policy Concept on March 31 that likely aims to support the Kremlin’s attempts to promote a potential anti-Western coalition. The new Foreign Policy Concept paints the West as an anti-Russian and internationally destabilizing force to a far greater extent than Russia’s previous 2016 Foreign Policy Concept and explicitly states that the US and its “satellites” have unleashed a hybrid war aimed at weakening Russia.[1] The new document also heavily stresses Russia's goal of creating a multipolar world order and subordinates under that goal Russia’s broad foreign policy objectives, which include ending the United States’ supposed dominance in world affairs.[2] The document asserts that most of humanity is interested in constructive relations with Russia and that a desired multi-polar world will give opportunities to non-Western world powers and regional leading countries...Russia’s declining economic power and degraded military effort in Ukraine continue to offer little incentive to countries to express serious interest in the proposal. The Kremlin likely decided to release the new Foreign Policy Concept on the eve of assuming the presidency of the United Nations Security Council (UNSC) in order to set informational conditions for future rhetorical efforts at the UN aimed at forming an anti-Western coalition
quote:
Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko continues to use high-profile public statements to portray Belarus as a sovereign state despite its current de-facto occupation by Russian forces. Lukashenko reiterated boilerplate rhetoric about how he is Russian President Vladimir Putin’s equal partner in defense of Russia and Belarus by explicitly painting Belarus as the target of a Western hybrid war – a narrative Lukashenko has promoted since 2020.[8] Lukashenko stated that he and Putin mutually agreed to deploy Russian nuclear weapons in Belarus to protect Belarus’ ”sovereignty and independence.”[9] Lukashenko also stated that he and Putin mutually decided to partially deploy elements of the Union State’s Regional Grouping of Troops (RGV) to an unspecified area.[10] Lukashenko stated that nobody should worry that Russia ”captured something” in Belarus and stated the Russian forces training in Belarus under Belarusian officers are subordinated to Belarusian forces’.[11] Lukashenko likely seeks to use the narrative that Belarus is a fully sovereign state and Russia’s equal partner in the Union State so that he can use informational leverage to request that Russian forces leave Belarus after Russia’s invasion of Ukraine concludes. Lukashenko also stated that he supports peace negotiations “as soon as possible” and offered to help mediate negotiations
quote:
Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov promptly rejected Lukashenko’s suggestion of a ceasefire and indicated that the Kremlin is not interested in serious negotiations. Peskov responded to a question about Lukashenko’ suggestion on March 31 and stated that Russian forces will continue to carry out their missions in Ukraine.[13] Peskov emphasized that Russian military operations in Ukraine are the only means by which Russia can achieve its goals.[14] Peskov likely aimed to leave open the possibility for launching new information operations about Russian interests in a ceasefire by stating that Putin and Lukashenko may discuss the proposal for a truce in Ukraine.[15] The Kremlin may decide to promote ceasefire narratives in coming weeks in an attempt to freeze the frontlines in Ukraine out of fears that a Ukrainian counteroffensive could result in Ukrainian forces liberating more territory.
quote:
Russian Security Council Deputy Chairman Dmitry Medvedev leveraged comments about sending peacekeeping forces to Ukraine to continue information operations that portray the West as escalatory. Medvedev likely responded to Viktor Orban’s March 31 statements regarding alleged European discussions about sending peacekeeping forces to Ukraine and stated that Russian forces would target the hypothetical peacekeepers.[16] Medvedev argued that a Western-led peacekeeping mission to Ukraine would end in tragedies reminiscent of Yugoslavia and other conflicts.[17] There are no indications outside of Orban’s comments that Western officials are seriously discussing such a proposal, and Medvedev likely used Orban’s comments to construct a straw man proposal to paint the West as trying to escalate the war in Ukraine.
quote:
Key Takeaways
Russian President Vladimir Putin approved a new Russian Foreign Policy Concept on March 31 that likely aims to support the Kremlin’s attempts to promote a potential anti-Western coalition.
Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko continues to use high-profile public statements to portray Belarus as a sovereign state despite its current de-facto occupation by Russian forces.
Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov promptly rejected Lukashenko’s suggestion of a ceasefire and indicated that the Kremlin is not interested in serious negotiations.
Russian Security Council deputy chairman Dmitry Medvedev leveraged comments about sending peacekeeping forces to Ukraine to continue information operations that portray the West as escalatory.
Russian forces continued ground attacks along the Svatove-Kreminna line.
Russian forces made gains within Bakhmut and Ukrainian forces regained positions in the Bakhmut area.
Russian forces continued offensive operations along the Avdiivka-Donetsk frontline.
Ukrainian strikes against Russian concentration areas in southern Ukraine are likely causing the Russian grouping in the area to change tactics to avoid the risk of strikes.
Russian officials continue to state that Russian forces have no plans for a formal second wave of mobilization.
Russian officials continue to send Ukrainian children to camps in Russia.
Posted on 3/31/23 at 7:39 pm to Coeur du Tigre
quote:
One of the mysteries to me is that a sociopath like Putin can be hyper aggressive about everything yet still refuses to commence a full wartime mobilization. In the coming list of reasons why Russia lost this war, his fear of mobilizations will be in the top three.
Thus far, Putin has avoided conscription of many who are considered to be "Ethnic Russians" and has protected the inhabitants of the major cities and the families of the elite or the politically connected. His soldiers were primarily harvested from rural areas, particularly those far from Moscow and of various ethnic backgrounds including Tatars, Chechens, Bashkirs, Chuvash, Avars, Armenians, Ukrainians, Dargins, Kazakhs, Buryats, Yakuts, Mongolians, etc. as well as from many other peoples living in the more remote regions of the country. By conscripting those far from the seat of power he has been able to nearly eliminate any repercussions at home. If he now takes the sons of the rich and powerful it could lead to the revolt that he has been thus far able to prevent. Thus his aversion to a full mobilization.
Posted on 3/31/23 at 8:41 pm to ImaObserver
I posted some video of a battle for a trench line at a T off scrub line a few days again, I called a bermed area a retaining pond which may not be accurate. Apparently, that is/was a hotly contested piece of dirt and has changed hands several times. The link is a 10 minute video of a tank emptying out the trench. Not sure why the tank was sans infantry but sometimes it is what it is. It reminded me of driving a Scorpion in Halo CE (pretty much my only experience as a tanker) just hammering away with the main gun at grunts just out of elevation range. Does anyone know if the Russian tanks have canister rounds? A M1028 would have made short work of the situation.
Arrow to the feature that locates this to the previous pics and video
Twitter video
Arrow to the feature that locates this to the previous pics and video
Twitter video
Posted on 3/31/23 at 8:57 pm to Obtuse1
Good grief! It is tough to kill someone in a trench. I thought they’d all be killed after the first three rounds
Posted on 3/31/23 at 9:00 pm to jeffsdad
Is that why you asked about cannister round?
Posted on 3/31/23 at 10:44 pm to jeffsdad
quote:
Is that why you asked about cannister round?
Yes, they are like a 120mm shotgun shell (with tungsten balls). Though I am still not sure the elevation of the gun would go low enough.
I also don't know why they weren't using the 7.62mm coax (maybe elevation again) or the 12.7mm on the commander's cupola. I would assume they were either out of ammo or out of service.
Posted on 3/31/23 at 10:49 pm to Obtuse1
Russian "Star" website talking about the current years annual conscription:
I imagine the chance of one of these conscripts is directly proportional to the distance the conscript lives from Moscow/St. Petersburg.
https://tvzvezda.ru/news/20233311040-Jvl95.html
quote:
The Ministry of Defense emphasizes : none of the conscripts will serve in the new Russian regions. In the NMD zone, only contract servicemen and those newly called up from the reserve will continue to perform tasks.
“I want to assure you all that there is no second wave of mobilization in the plans of the General Staff. Those who have already been called up for military service, as well as citizens who have voluntarily expressed a desire to participate in the operation, are quite enough to carry out the assigned tasks,” said Rear Admiral Vladimir Tsimlyansky.
I imagine the chance of one of these conscripts is directly proportional to the distance the conscript lives from Moscow/St. Petersburg.
https://tvzvezda.ru/news/20233311040-Jvl95.html
Posted on 3/31/23 at 11:07 pm to Obtuse1
The red dot below is 70 square kilometers
This post was edited on 4/1/23 at 1:26 am
Posted on 3/31/23 at 11:33 pm to GOP_Tiger
If you're looking for a place to stay and have a quiet evening, Hotel Bakhmut has some ok reviews (4.2 stars on Booking.com).
Posted on 4/1/23 at 12:39 am to Coeur du Tigre
A full mobilization and oligarchs kids coming home in body bags and Putin might go flying out a window.
This post was edited on 4/1/23 at 12:52 am
Posted on 4/1/23 at 12:51 am to LSUPilot07
I don’t think they wait until May 15th or so, I think they signal that to everyone and want everyone to believe that but I think in reality they are going to actually launch their offensive in April in next 2-4 weeks
Posted on 4/1/23 at 2:38 am to Coeur du Tigre
The replies to my post all make legitimate points as to why Putin has not called for a full wartime mobilization. But they are all rationalizations, not unassailable reasons.
In Russia, Putin is the law. There is no concern for the public opinion of people that are known for “accepting their fate” for over a century. They don’t seriously object about anything. And anyone that does will deal with some of the 900,000+ security police that serve Putin. Just look at the hundreds of dead Russian journalists they have stacked like cordwood since Putin took over.
No, Putin doesn’t fear the law or public opinion. The only thing that makes sense of the refusal to call for full mobilization is that he is taking the advice of someone he trusts on this matter. It’s a huge mistake but believe it or not, he can’t see it.
In Russia, Putin is the law. There is no concern for the public opinion of people that are known for “accepting their fate” for over a century. They don’t seriously object about anything. And anyone that does will deal with some of the 900,000+ security police that serve Putin. Just look at the hundreds of dead Russian journalists they have stacked like cordwood since Putin took over.
No, Putin doesn’t fear the law or public opinion. The only thing that makes sense of the refusal to call for full mobilization is that he is taking the advice of someone he trusts on this matter. It’s a huge mistake but believe it or not, he can’t see it.
Posted on 4/1/23 at 6:30 am to RLDSC FAN
British Defence Intelligence
INTELLIGENCE UPDATE
UPDATE ON UKRAINE 01 April 2023
On 11 January 2023, Russian Chief of the General Staff (CGS) General Valery Gerasimov took personal command of the 'special military operation' in Ukraine.
Gerasimov's tenure has been characterised by an effort to launch a general winter offensive with the aim of extending Russian control over the whole of the Donbas region. Eighty days on, it is increasingly apparent that this project has failed.
On several axes across the Donbas front, Russian forces have made only marginal gains at the cost of tens of thousands of casualties, largely squandering its temporary advantage in personnel gained from the autumn's 'partial mobilisation'.
After ten years as CGS, there is a realistic possibility that Gerasimov is pushing the limits of how far Russia's political leadership will tolerate failure.
INTELLIGENCE UPDATE
UPDATE ON UKRAINE 01 April 2023
On 11 January 2023, Russian Chief of the General Staff (CGS) General Valery Gerasimov took personal command of the 'special military operation' in Ukraine.
Gerasimov's tenure has been characterised by an effort to launch a general winter offensive with the aim of extending Russian control over the whole of the Donbas region. Eighty days on, it is increasingly apparent that this project has failed.
On several axes across the Donbas front, Russian forces have made only marginal gains at the cost of tens of thousands of casualties, largely squandering its temporary advantage in personnel gained from the autumn's 'partial mobilisation'.
After ten years as CGS, there is a realistic possibility that Gerasimov is pushing the limits of how far Russia's political leadership will tolerate failure.
Posted on 4/1/23 at 7:33 am to Obtuse1
Seems like a waste of big gun ammunition...
but what do I do know....
Some ears had to be ringing
but what do I do know....
Some ears had to be ringing
Posted on 4/1/23 at 7:44 am to TigersnJeeps
At the start of the video there were 2 t-72 and a BMP. I was expecting the tanks to lead and the bmp to unload infantry to take the position. But we never saw the bmp again.
Had the Russian infantry held off using their apparently only anti tank round till it got closer they may have survived.
Tank and bmp could have easily suppressed and pinned down the infantry while the infantry assaulted the trench. This put the tank at risk had the Russians had more anti tank rounds.
But apparently they were just lucky or knew they were short of ammo. In the end no Ukrainian losses and wiping out the trench. All at the cost of about a dozen HE rounds.
Had the Russian infantry held off using their apparently only anti tank round till it got closer they may have survived.
Tank and bmp could have easily suppressed and pinned down the infantry while the infantry assaulted the trench. This put the tank at risk had the Russians had more anti tank rounds.
But apparently they were just lucky or knew they were short of ammo. In the end no Ukrainian losses and wiping out the trench. All at the cost of about a dozen HE rounds.
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