re: Latest Updates: Russia-Ukraine Conflict

ISW

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Wagner Group financier Yevgeny Prigozhin announced on March 8 that Russian forces captured all of eastern Bakhmut, a claim consistent with available visual evidence

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Russian forces remain unlikely to rapidly exploit a breakthrough beyond Bakhmut if Russian forces capture the city. Prigozhin implied on March 8 that the Russian Ministry of Defense used the Wagner Group to bear the brunt of high-intensity attritional urban warfare in Bakhmut and may discard the Wagner Group after capturing Bakhmut so conventional Russian units can continue to attack.[4] Prigozhin did not provide an assessment of the likelihood of success of future Russian offensive operations beyond Bakhmut. ISW has not observed any indicators that the Russian military has a well-equipped and prepared reserve force to advance beyond Bakhmut. Most observed Russian units in Donbas are already engaged in offensive operations, including Russian airborne (VDV) elements that joined the Russian offensive in Bakhmut in January 2023

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US Director of National Intelligence Avril Haines stated on March 8 that Russian President Vladimir Putin likely recognizes the Russian military’s current limited capability to sustain a short-term offensive and may pursue a protracted war.[8] Haines stated on March 8 that Putin is likely only temporarily focused on pursuing short-term military objectives in Ukraine and may believe that prolonging the war will increase the likelihood of achieving his strategic goals. ISW has previously assessed that Putin maintains maximalist war goals in Ukraine despite Russian forces’ currently limited capabilities to achieve these goals.[9] Haines stated that Russia will increasingly struggle to maintain its current tempo of operations in Ukraine without conducting full mobilization and securing adequate ammunition to mitigate Russia’s current shortage. Haines noted that Russian forces are suffering high losses to take Bakhmut, which Haines characterized as “not particularly strategic,” supporting ISW’s prior assessments that a Pyrrhic tactical victory in Bakhmut would not further Russia’s operational or strategic battlefield aims.[10] ISW previously assessed on January 15 that the Kremlin was preparing for a strategically decisive effort in 2023 while simultaneously preparing for a protracted war

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The Kremlin may be attempting to establish a new Russian government-controlled armed formation billed as a volunteer unit through the Russian state-owned energy company Gazprom. A prominent Russian milblogger stated that Gazprom subsidiary Gazprom Neft is forming a volunteer formation analogous to Russian Combat Army Reserve (BARS) units.[12] The milblogger originally claimed that Gazprom Neft is forming a private military company (PMC) and is actively deploying unspecified elements to occupied Donetsk Oblast before later issuing a correction that the Gazprom Neft formation is a volunteer unit, not a PMC. The milblogger claimed Gazprom Neft’s recruitment campaign generated interest in Donetsk City given that the company is offering 400,000 rubles (approximately $5,260) salary per month and additional compensation for performance bonuses.[13] The milblogger added that this offered salary is twice the amount offered by the Wagner Group, noting that a volunteer in the Gazprom Neft formation can—with bonuses—earn up to 600,000 rubles (about $7,890) per month.

The Russian government previously authorized Gazprom Neft to create a private security organization (not a PMC) on February 6 to protect Russian energy infrastructure.[15] Ukrainian intelligence previously noted that the creation of the Gazprom Neft private security company aligns with an assessed Kremlin effort to sideline Wagner Group financier Yevgeny Prigozhin and mitigate the Kremlin’s dependency on Wagner Group forces.

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A US official denied on March 8 that US intelligence assessed that a pro-Ukrainian group sabotaged the Nord Stream pipelines in September 2022. US National Security Council (NSC) spokesperson Andrienne Watson stated on March 8 that the NSC is unable to confirm the New York Times March 7 report that US officials reviewed unverified intelligence suggesting a pro-Ukrainian group conducted the attack.[17] Watson stated that the anonymous claims in the report did not come from downgraded intelligence shared by the US government and that sources were not authorized to speak on the US government’s behalf

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German and Polish officials announced that Germany and Poland will deliver 28 Leopard 2 tanks to Ukraine in March 2023, which will bolster Ukraine’s capabilities to conduct a counteroffensive amidst high Russian tank losses. German Defense Minister Boris Pistorius announced on March 8 that Germany will deliver 18 Leopard 2 tanks to Ukraine by the end of March, and Polish Defense Minister Mariusz Blaszczak announced that Poland will deliver 10 more tanks by the end of the week.[19] These tanks, though below the quantities that the Ukrainian military needs, will augment Ukraine’s capabilities to conduct counteroffensive operations, particularly due to the degraded state of Russian armored units. Dutch open-source group Oryx reported that it verified Russian losses of over 1,000 T-72 tank variants in Ukraine as of March 8.[20] Oryx verified 1,079 destroyed Russian tanks and 549 captured Russian tanks as of February 24, and estimated on February 9 that Russian forces had committed roughly 3,000 tanks to the war in Ukraine.

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Key Takeaways

Wagner Group financier Yevgeny Prigozhin announced on March 8 that Russian forces captured all of eastern Bakhmut, a claim consistent with available visual evidence
Russian forces remain unlikely to exploit a breakthrough beyond Bakhmut if Russian forces capture the city.

The Kremlin may be attempting to establish a new Russian government-controlled armed formation billed as a volunteer unit through the Russian state-owned energy company Gazprom.

A US official denied that US intelligence assessed that a pro-Ukrainian group sabotaged the Nord Stream pipelines in September 2022.

German and Polish officials announced that Germany and Poland will deliver 28 Leopard 2 tanks to Ukraine in March 2023, which will bolster Ukraine’s capabilities to conduct a counteroffensive amidst high Russian tank losses.

Russian forces continued to conduct ground attacks on the Kupyansk-Svatove-Kreminna line.

Russian forces continued offensive operations around Bakhmut on March 8 but have not succeeded in completing a turning movement around the city.

Russian forces continued offensive operations along the outskirts of Donetsk City.

Russian sources claimed that Ukrainian forces landed on the Dnipro River Delta islands for the third consecutive day.

The Kremlin is doubling down on reviving volunteer recruitment campaigns throughout Russia and occupied Ukraine.

Russian hospitals are continuing to form new medical centers in Russia in an effort to maximize the capacity for overfilling hospitals in occupied territories to treat wounded Russian servicemen.

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Thanks for update

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That’s immediately what I thought when I read the headline.

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I get that, but why publicly put Russia on blast accusing them of war crimes and explicitly saying we have evidence of it if you aren't willing to share it and do something? Kinda makes America look shitty.

Any updates? Last few hours I’ve seen posts on social media that Russia has been on an offensive. As I don’t follow this like most in this thread, can the regulars look into this? Tia.

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Any updates? Last few hours I’ve seen posts on social media that Russia has been on an offensive. As I don’t follow this like most in this thread, can the regulars look into this? Tia.

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Very little fresh intel comes out of Ukraine during the afternoon and evening here because it is dark there and Russia has done very little at night in this war likely due to a disparity in NVGs.

Civil Twilight for sunrise there is in a few minutes.

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Conventional wisdom would say you are right which makes me wonder, Why? Ukraine is fully aware of its limited resources, why would it squander them needlessly?

This leads to several possible explanations

1) They are making a mistake
2) They are actually conducting a pullback and are trying to obscure that fact through every channel available to them, including the media. To do so, they are hitting Russia on the edges to draw pressure off the middle while they pull back.
3) They know something that tells them it's worth the sacrifice, in effect, they have information we are not privy to. This would go along with the reports that Wager is almost expended that have started bubbling up.
4) They are trying to draw Russia into a trap, and we are watching a major psyop in motion.

My bet is on #4

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Very good analysis of the possibilities of the situation. I imagine we won’t know the truth of it though for some time though.

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This leads to several possible explanations

1) They are making a mistake
2) They are actually conducting a pullback and are trying to obscure that fact through every channel available to them, including the media. To do so, they are hitting Russia on the edges to draw pressure off the middle while they pull back.
3) They know something that tells them it's worth the sacrifice, in effect, they have information we are not privy to. This would go along with the reports that Wager is almost expended that have started bubbling up.
4) They are trying to draw Russia into a trap, and we are watching a major psyop in motion.

My bet is on #4

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My thoughts as to the logic behind Ukraine's defense of Bakhmut:

1) Ukraine is trying to finish off Russia's ammo stocks and leave Russia without what it needs to defend Ukraine's upcoming offensive. Continuing the Bakhmut fight will leave Russia unprepared.

2) Ukraine is trying to break Russian morale by denying them any win in their "big offensive."

3) Ukraine is specifically trying to crush Wagner, with the hope that the ongoing Russian MoD vs Wagner fight can continue to cause internal strife. As Prigozhin sees his force destroyed, he's likely to lash out more forcefully against Shoigu/Gerasimov.

4) Ukraine thinks that losing Bakhmut could damage international support, as the general public in countries such as the US would doubt the wisdom of giving further aid to a losing cause.

5) The last reason goes something like: "Because frick Russia. That's why." You know, "Bakhmut Holds!" is not quite yet at the level of "Russian warship, go frick yourself," but it's getting there. Ukrainian morale requires a stiff defense of Bakhmut. If it's lost, then it's lost -- but not without a fight.

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What does this mean? Are they landing and being repulsed or taking separate islands for the past 3 days.

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A few months back, recon unit landed on the Kinburn Spit, ran around the immediate area then nothing heard so likely returned to the west bank. Later they landed on a large island between two branches of the Dnipro which I think was only a recon unit. The island is inhabited along its shores but internally looks like marshes

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I get that, but why publicly put Russia on blast accusing them of war crimes and explicitly saying we have evidence of it if you aren't willing to share it and do something? Kinda makes America look shitty.

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Correct, but it’s done because our govt is more fractured than others, for good and bad. Not all players of the game agree and it plays out in the media.

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Any updates? Last few hours I’ve seen posts on social media that Russia has been on an offensive. As I don’t follow this like most in this thread, can the regulars look into this? Tia.

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Looks like lots of cruise missile strikes over night, but thats lots of sizzle with very little steak. Seem russia is attacking in multiple places but making only insignificant gains at seemingly high cost.