re: Latest Updates: Russia-Ukraine Conflict

Long cliffs (it was a long speech, about 1 hour 50 mins) in rough chronological order, bear in mind it is through translators, I will try to keep it as uncoloured from personal bias as possible apart from own comments.

Depending on the translators (7 changes in total), Putin appears to refer to the SMO as a "war" repeatedly. This did lessen as new translators came in, though after the first 30 minutes little mention of the war was made.

Pointedly called out longer ranged weapons meaning they would have to push their borders out further.

10-15 minutes of the regular talking points - West is anti-Christian, biolabs, paedophilia, gays, the western elites are using Ukraine to wage war on Russia, Russia is going to save the West from itself.

Own comment: Lots of glazed eyes in the audience with controlled expressions/body language, several appeared to be asleep as well.

Claimed he had a long list of the military units he wanted to call out but decided not to because he didn't want to miss anyone so just thanked all the various arms of the military and civilian services.

A special thanks for the regions that joined Russia via the referendum, their "native land", under threat of terrorism from the Ukraine regime - standing ovation.

Moment of silence for those lost to the Neo-nazi's. Proposed establishing a state foundation for the families of every soldier lost with their own personal social worker.

Mentioned draftees and volunteers concerned about supplies or being adequately cared for when injured due to problems but claimed these would be resolved without elaborating.

Talked about building the military in the future with lessons learned from the SMO. Referred that Russian nuclear forces are 91% state of the art, that level needing to be brought across all the armed forces.

Officers and sergeants that proved themselves in the SMO should be promoted to higher ranks, go to military colleges, and receive positions in bodies of power at all levels as appreciation from the Motherland.

Russian equipment is proving vastly better than Western equipment and that they need to produce more of it and that they are. Proposed giving defence workers subsidised rent.

Own comment: The war rounded out about the first 35 minutes.

West failed with its sanctions, only hurt themselves with inflation, job losses, business closures, and an energy crisis that they blame on Russia. Sanctions failed because the government, banks, and state protected the Ruble and Russians.

Claimed West said sanctions would drop Russian GDP by 20-25% in 2022 but latest figures show only 2.1%

Talked about an independent monetary system without elaborating but that it would destroy the use of the US dollar as a universal currency.

Russia has everything it needs to run and develop its economy. Housing and farming increased their output in 2022. It can fill all the gaps left by the withdrawal of Western companies. Lowest unemployment ever at 3.7%.

Everyone should put aside differences and personal problems in state bodies to launch small family companies, state of the art factories, new roads, new schools, new scientific breakthroughs would be a victory for us.

Talked about expanding roads especially towards China. New vessels and sea routes to Pakistan and Iran. 85% of roads in urban areas will be brought to national standard by 2024.

Lots more talk about various economic plans and strategies.

Russia doesn't have a lot of debt to outside entities, banks ended 2022 with a profit. Inflation in Q2 of 2023 will be only the targeted 4-5% compared to 17-20% in other nations.

Protections through insurance for savings and pensions to be reviewed and improved.

Revision of criminal law provisions about economic rights - state is reviewing situation and crimes should not be ignored but there should not be an excessively punitive approach. Looking to accelerate de-offshorisation of the economy.

Talk of restructuring the economy away from Western style. Anyone who lost property or money in the West only has themselves to blame as Russians are second rate citizens elsewhere in the world. Restart in Russia and invest in it.

Talked about Russian generosity, doesn't abandon friends.

Talked about elections in 2024.

The one highest right is the right of Russia to be strong.

Art should bring out the best qualities in a man, not destroy society.

Went from culture to DPR and LPR forces, to scientists being allowed to be more creative, to low unemployment, to the need to train professional in electronics, cosmetics, military and other areas that are important for Russian security in about 5 minutes.

Own comment: I may have misheard the cosmetic bits or possibly it was translation.

Families 2 children+ won't have to pay real estate taxes if they want to buy a new dwelling.

Talk of schools being built over next 2 years.

Talk of new waste services and preservation of waterways.

Own comment: 1 hour or so on the economy and society rounded this part out.

Claimed NATO has demanded that Russia return to START allowing inspections of nuclear sites and facilities. Pointed out Russia is not allowed to do this so Russia won't comply and reiterated NATO's only goal is the strategic defeat of Russia but that Russia wouldn't stop re-joining if given equality.

All wars created by the US were targeted to destroy the relations structure put in place after WWII, enabling them to become a dominant force as they care about no one but themselves and will do whatever they want.

Because some older strategic weapons in the West are coming up for replacement the West will test them, so Russia will too but will not be the first to do so.

Own comment: About 15 minutes on nuclear weapons rounded this part out.

Talked about the multiculturalism of Russia, how they all pray to victory, comrades, and Russia. - Standing ovation audience remained standing.

Talked about the support shown by society to the frontline warriors. The big businesses should donate more but the moderate donators are much more important.

Truth is with Russia.

Own comment: Speech end, about 5 minutes on the conclusion.

Personal summary:
Not a very inspiring speech, perhaps it hit home more for Russians. Personally I found it to be strained and pleading at times, that things are fine, problems will be fixed, and are being fixed with little elaboration on what they are or how this will be done. The top heavy proportion of time given to the economy and how well it is running said a lot imo, but little meat contained in it all bar a few good sounding figures and lots of promises for reviews and programs to be initiated. The war got far less focus in comparison, and again problems were stated to exist but mainly glossed over and not addressed. Definitely saw signs of Putin trying to distance himself from the "rich elite". He did come back to strategic defeat, nuclear weapons and used the word war several times so that was the sabre rattling as I saw it.

Edit: Got the times somewhat wrong, possibly because I had to restream due to it dropping out. I have edited them to fix it after reviewing.

Due to sanctions, there isn’t enough popcorn in Russia for all of this. What next?

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OutsideObserver

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TYFYS

Speech seems like a nothing burger given the hype, audience, signs in moscow, etc. Seems like a LONG SOTU, not a wartime speech to address the wars present and future. Almost like he was taking an “it’s the economy stupid” approach to solidly support domestically.

isw update

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US President Joe Biden visited Kyiv on February 20 ahead of the first anniversary of Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine. Biden met with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky and announced that the US will provide an additional $500 million in military assistance to Ukraine, including howitzer shells, anti-tank missiles, air surveillance radars, and other aid

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Ukrainian officials continue to respond to statements made by unspecified US defense officials on the pace and prospects of the war as it approaches the one-year mark. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky stated on February 20 that Ukraine will continue to defend Bakhmut but "not at any cost."[3] Zelensky and Ukrainian Defense Minister Oleksii Reznikov also emphasized that Ukrainian troops are continuing to prepare for counteroffensives in the near term

Verkhovna Rada Committee on National Security, Defense, and Intelligence member Fedir Venislavskyi notably stated on February 19 that Russia has "all combat-ready units on the line of contact In Luhansk and Donetsk oblasts, and partly in Zaporizhia Oblast," reaffirming the assessment that Russia does not have a large uncommitted combat ready reserves that can be deployed and change the course of operations

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The Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD) confirmed the formal integration of the Donetsk and Luhansk People’s Republics’ (DNR/LNR) militias into the Russian Armed Forces on February 19 in response to growing criticism about reported command changes within the proxy units. The Russian MoD denied reports about the alleged dismissal of officers of the integrated DNR and LNR’s 1st and 2nd Army Corps, likely in response to widespread milblogger and proxy criticisms about the reported dismissal of DNR Militia Spokesman Eduard Basurin on February 17.[9] Basurin discussed his dismissal in a publicized meeting with Wagner Group financier Yevgeny Prigozhin on February 19 in which he stated that such command changes will "harm" proxy commanders and servicemen.

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The decision to reorganize the DNR and LNR militias amid an ongoing offensive likely indicates that the Russian MoD does not fully grasp the scale of the underlying challenges of integrating irregular forces into the professional military, especially during a period of intense combat operations. The DNR and LNR forces are currently fighting in Donbas in support of Russia’s goal to reach the administrative borders of Donetsk and Luhansk oblasts and such untimely restructuring of the command structure may reduce cohesion within the proxy units and between them and Russian forces. Russian forces have suffered from their own shortcomings in unit cohesion and will likely face greater tensions with the proxy militias that were not trained to professional standards. Proxy elements have also repeatedly complained about receiving unequal treatment from the Kremlin, and Russian mobilized servicemen have recently accused the DNR and LNR formations of abuse and discrimination in turn

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The restructuring of proxy militias also suggests that the Russian military command is trying to achieve all desired reforms while the Russian MoD has the favor of Russian President Vladimir Putin. The Russian military command may recognize that Russia does not have the combat capability to reach the administrative borders of Donetsk and Luhansk oblasts in the short term and is likely trying to rush through some planned reforms before Putin again becomes disillusioned with the Russian MoD’s inability to secure meaningful advances. The Russian military command may alternatively be deluded about its ability to rapidly and seamlessly complete professionalization objectives to aid the ongoing offensive and may not perceive the problems inherent in conducting a significant military reform while pursuing difficult offensive operations. The Russian MoD has been trying to simultaneously professionalize different aspects of Russian forces by targeting Wagner’s influence, integrating mobilized servicemen into proxy and conventional formations, and introducing personal grooming standards and operational security procedures

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The Russian military command has likely cut off Wagner Group financier Yevgeny Prigozhin’s independent access to artillery shells and heavy weaponry as part of the effort to professionalize Russian conventional forces. Prigozhin stated on February 20 that the Russian military command had stopped providing artillery shells to Wagner as a result of his "complicated relationships" with unspecified but likely Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD) officials.[13] Prigozhin claimed that Wagner has "complete shell hunger" as a result of Russian military officials ignoring his demands and introducing new limitations and restrictions on his ammunition procurement. Prigozhin claimed that Wagner servicemen are experiencing twice the number of casualties (without specifying the comparandum) because they are unable to suppress Ukrainian artillery fire and noted that Wagner had sufficient ammunition during the tenure of former Commander of the Russian Joint Grouping of Forces in Ukraine, Army General Sergey Surovikin. Prigozhin denied rumors of having a personal relationship with Surovikin, but noted that he used to meet up with and call Surovikin when he visited the frontlines. Prigozhin also noted that Wagner had been receiving some weapons from unnamed generals and officers who had violated the military code to help him. The Russian MoD has also reportedly cut off Prigozhin’s ability to recruit prisoners and train at select training grounds belonging to the Russian Armed Forces

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Prigozhin’s appeal may have misrepresented the devastating impact of the lack of artillery ammunition on Wagner to mask his true frustrations with Wagner’s inability to have and operate its own artillery systems independent of conventional Russian units. Prigozhin demanded that the Russian military leadership set aside its principles and save Wagner servicemen by providing shells. It is unlikely that Wagner is operating in the Bakhmut direction completely without artillery support, however. Wagner is likely receiving artillery support from the conventional Russian forces that have been supporting Wagner operations in the area since the Wagner offensive culminated

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Chechen Republic Head Ramzan Kadyrov likely publicized a meeting he had with Prigozhin on an unspecified date in order to assuage Prigozhin’s possible anger at Kadyrov’s likely refusal to join Prigozhin’s informational campaign against the Russian MoD. Kadyrov posted a picture on February 19 showing him meeting with Prigozhin on an unspecified date and applauded the Wagner Group for its success and work in Ukraine.[19] Kadyrov’s endorsement of Prigozhin and the Wagner Group followed Kadyrov‘s equally effusive endorsement of the Russian MoD on February 18, suggesting that Kadyrov is likely trying to maintain his relationships with the MoD and the Kremlin without incurring Prigozhin’s criticism. [20] Kadyrov did not state that he intends to form a paramilitary company in an unspecified timeframe, as some Western reporting of his comments suggested. Kadyrov rhetorically commented that he might compete with Prigozhin’s Wagner Group one day following the completion of his work in the civil service as Chechen Republic head

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Heroically, OutsideObserver gave us the Putin speech straight, but I think that the speech was boring, so I'm going to post some of the live tweets by Dmitry Grozoubinski, who included lots of snark:

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"Even before the launch of the special operation, the Ukrainian government was in negotiations with the West to acquire anti-air and other weapons"

Yeah, wonder why dude.

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Oh my god, he just mentioned Biolabs in Ukraine and claimed Ukraine was trying to acquire nuclear weapons.

This is 4chan level conspiracy stuff in a Presidential address.

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The audience looks bored as frick. You can get this shite on Solovyov or RT every day.

Also he's clearing his throat and coughing a lot, but honestly he looks reasonably good and his voice is strong so I don't buy into the 'about to die' theories.

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"The more long ranged weaponry Ukraine is supplied with, the further we will have to push the danger from our borders."

Good luck with that, champ.

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We are now talking about national traitors. Anyone from the Soviet Union has heard this kind of rhetoric before.

"We won't do what the West does and engage in witch hunts."

fricking hilarious when you're dragged off in handcuffs for holding a protest sign.

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Proposes subsidized rent for those working in the military industrial complex.

Very Soviet Union.

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Rattling off natural gas and agricultural production statistics, which would be really impressive if Russia wasn't trying to pretend to be a modern economy rather than just a big wheat farm with a lot of fossils in the ground.

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Talking about how small businesses stepped up to fill the void to prevent the economy becoming government centric.

Assuming he's referring to how the families of mobilized troops had to crowdsource bulletproof vests online from small businesses because the army stole them all.

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Talking about providing free gasification to Russian homes.

A useful reminder that one of the largest natural gas producers in the world has literally tens of millions of unheated homes because they stole all the money and are heartless monsters.

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A new credit program for micro-investment.

Now he's talking about industrial parks, with lower taxes and guaranteed government contracts. I'm sure that will lead to no nepotism and corruption at all - especially given he just listed a $10t ruble production target for 2030.

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He's bragging about how prescient he was in predicting that Russian businesses would end up scurrying all over the West, trying to rescue their seized cash.

"No one in Russia pities them!"

Again, most of the people in the room are firmly in this category. It's so funny.

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from The Kyiv Independent

Putin: Russia suspends participation in nuclear treaty with US

by Kate Tsurkan February 21, 2023 1:40 pm

Russia has suspended its participation in the New START treaty, said Russian dictator Vladimir Putin in a speech to the Federal Assembly and members of the Russian political elite on Feb. 21.

The nuclear arms reduction treaty between the U.S. and Russia was signed in 2010 in Prague. The treaty limits the size and composition of the U.S. and Russian nuclear arsenals. It is the only remaining arms control agreement between both countries.

Putin said that Russia would not allow the U.S. or NATO countries to inspect its nuclear arsenal, adding that a week ago he signed a decree putting new strategic ground-based systems of nuclear missiles on combat duty. He also said that Russia is prepared to test nuclear weapons if the U.S. does so first.

The statement is a recent in a series of nuclear threats that Russia has made since the beginning of its full-scale invasion of Ukraine in February 2022.

I agree with him on the sanctions. They have not hurt Russia nearly as much as some predicted. Their GDP loss has been minimal.

The speech did not live up to the hype. Many expected Putin to announce some drastic measures.

Belarus getting ready to join in? Responding to Ukrainian faux-aggression perhaps?

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Belarus getting ready to join in? Responding to Ukrainian faux-aggression perhaps?

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I don't think the west can stand on the sidelines if other countries (Belarus) join in the fight. With Belarus and China about to join in in some manner, we better get ready over here and in border countries in Europe.