re: Latest Updates: Russia-Ukraine Conflict

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I mean, the idea that Russia might mount an offensive from Belarus into Western Ukraine to cut supply lines from Poland? That's certainly possible, and something that we've discussed and others have discussed.

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If I was the CIC of Russian forces, this is what I’d do. From a strategic standpoint, it makes the most sense if you want to deliver a knockout blow. The question though is Russia capable of delivering such a blow?

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But "Russia has readied 700,000 soldiers"? C'mon, man. That's as crazy as some of the fantasies of the Russian fanboys.

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I’m far from being a “fanboy” of anyone in this war. But I’ll say this, one of the greatest mistakes the Germans made in both world wars against Russia was assuming they had to be running out of reserves.

Russia will need a shitload of equipped and trained troops, Hundreds of tanks, and thousands of armored vehicles and trucks to invade Ukraine via Belarus. Then they would have to penetrate further than they have yet to do anywhere else in this war. The terrain in that part of Ukraine is great for defenders and terrible for attackers as the Russians will have to funnel down the road network where they will be easy pickings for a couple of guys with a Javelin.

Russia doesn't have the troops, the equipment, ammo, the logistics network, or any element of surprise. I don't see it happening.

The furthest they might get would be the highway that runs along the northern border with Belarus which is about 60 km south of the border. I highlighted in Red all of the main roads that run north/south between Belarus and Ukraine.

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I’m not so sure Russia wants to be playing so close to Poland’s border. If they were to try an attack on Lviv you’d have the entire Polish army staring at you from right across the border. Russia can’t even clothe 700,000 soldiers, much less outfit them with weapons and training.

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There is a large swamp which straddles the border west of the Dnipro River. Partisans used it to operate from in WWII for harassing the Germans. It likely won't freeze this winter.

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new Russian T-90M Proryv-3 with Nakidka thermal camouflage burning after being hit by an AT-4.

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Very efficient, an old rocket for a new tank. ANd it had "thermal camouflage" which apparently doesnt work against older technology. I bet a dollar it doesnt work against new technology either.

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Takes balls to take on any MBT, no matter how old, with a fricking AT4

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Gotta be close

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Germany has named as new defense minister Boris Pistorius

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I googled him hoping his wife would be named Natasha so I could make a good rocky and bullwinkle spy joke.

According to wiki his partner’s name is . . . Doris.

Edited to add:

OK I sadly think a spy joke is still appropriate. Boris was a member of the German-Russian parliamentary friendship group early in his career and his current partner Doris is the ex-wife of Germany’s most pre-eminent useful idiot and Russian apologist - Gerhard Schroder.

I’m skeptical Boris and Doris are ready to green light the heavy guns to Ukraine.

Ward Carroll did a video about the Russian "carrier" Kuznetsov. The story he tells about when he was on the USS America in 1995 and they hosted high-ranking officers from the then broken down Kuznetsov including the admiral is gold. If you just want to listen to this it starts about 7:15.



YT

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Boris Pistorius

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Got to Love dat name!

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Russia has readied 700,000 soldiers

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I’m seeing a change in the opinions of the talking heads. Ukraine is in for a dismal period of time. Russia has the population to ready 700K or one million personnel if they wish. Can Ukraine prevail in this case? Doesn’t Russia have four times the population of Ukraine?

The logistics for transporting enough vodka for that many Russian folks in a foreign country are well beyond Russian capabilities.