re: Latest Updates: Russia-Ukraine Conflict

Putin is getting rid of all the patsies that he will blame shortly for the loss of territory and ultimately the war. The interesting thing is how he thinks it will happen and when is the right time for it to happen, he’s well past acceptable military materials and personnel losses, just a guess it’s after Ukraines next big offensive and subsequent loss of land, I’m also hearing infrastructure (military and civilian) in Crimea is on the table again.

If Russia doesnt even have some sort of IFF system in their aircraft, I mean, we know their military is a joke, but this is just stupid.

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It still somewhat surprises me to hear Russia is running out of artillery shells.

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The Russians are running out of relatively new shells. They still have thousands upon thousands of artillery shells in stockpiles. However, these are 40+ year old shells made by Soviet factories where quality control was notoriously poor, and then stored for decades in nonclimate controlled warehouses in Siberia. The metal is stressed, propellant is degraded, and the seals may be gone. The shells are more likely to explode upon firing or fall short and hit Russian troops than they are to land on target and explode properly and kill Ukrainians.

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Man that is an incredible account. Thanks for sharing. I’ll wade through pages of flames for a quality link like that.

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Agreed. Great read.

Old unstable propellant is an issue. I wouldn't want to be around it ever. Using it out of desperation due being invaded is one thing but to depend on it to invade is pure stupidity

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You're welcome.

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Let me add my thanks, it was an excellent account.

Interesting, at least to me, is the tactic is a Thunder Run arguably perfected by the US in 2003 used to take Baghdad was originally a Russian idea. The Russian version was fatally flawed. Russia attempted to use its version of the Thunder Run in '95 during the First Chechen War when they attempted to take Grozny with the 131st Motorized Rifle Brigade. The US learned from the Russian's near total defeat* and passed those lessons on to the Ukranians. A Thunder Run is a bit of a gambit but you can shift the odds when you have US levels of intel about the opposing forces. Something the Ukes had. The Thunder Run planned and executed correctly prevents forces from getting mired down in a MOUT battle which we were particularly keen to avoid in the city of Baghdad. As much as we give Baghdad Bob shite for saying there are no US troops in Baghdad the reality is the movement was so fast when they set up for the shot it was probably true and by the time he said it they were "waving" at him from a few hundred meters away.


* Russia lost about 80% of its combat forces in its failed attempt on Grozny including MBTs, IFVs/APCs, and soldiers. It was a classic case of FAFO.

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Russia has IFF systems on their aircraft that differentiates them from western aircraft. However the same IFF system is on Ukrainian aircraft. That’s one of the reasons why the Russian air force is hesitant to leave its own air space. There is no way for other Russian aircraft or Russian air defense systems to tell if a mig or su jet is Russian or Ukrainian unless they turn on their transponders and broadcast their position.

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Im a little rusty on this stuff, its been 10+ yrs since Ive seen it. I just dont understand how something like this would happen unless the Russian Air force is positively 100% inept. Engels is like 300 miles from ukraine. Certainly, a pilot wouldnt turn that system off if they are just flying around Engels. I get a plane can fly 300

Also, maybe I dont remember correctly, but the system itself is pretty generic so the same system being in russian and ukrainian planes wouldnt really be a big deal. Its the responses the system gives that would be classified/identifying.

I feel like its more that the russian shite just doesnt work.

ETA: I dont know what I expect from the same people that did this though. Tank crew hits a tree.

I have been predicting this for a month or two. It's awesome news.
From Bloomberg news:

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Scoop: Biden admin is discussing sending Bradley Fighting Vehicles to Ukraine, sources tell me and @AlbertoNardelli. “Bradleys would provide a major increase in ground combat capability because it is, in effect, a light tank,” one analyst says.

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This will be the final piece of the puzzle that causes Germany to allow Leopards to go to Ukraine.

[Edit: I didn't feel compelled to point out that "light tank" is a poor description of a Bradley, but perhaps I should have. I recognize, though, that for many in the general public, any big, heavy thing made of metal is a "tank."]

Article (paywalled)

A quick penetration along a contested front. Firepower and speed that leaves the opponent unable to respond effectively.

Think of a column narrow and long punching a hole in the line.