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re: Latest Updates: Russia-Ukraine Conflict
Posted on 10/31/22 at 10:11 am to WeeWee
Posted on 10/31/22 at 10:11 am to WeeWee
Very interesting indicator of a change in Russian public opinion:
Russia is extremely hard to poll accurately, as many people are afraid to answer pollsters' question honestly. Nevertheless, Levada has had an excellent reputation, and previous polls have shown high support for Putin and the war.
Commentary from @russia_watcher, who also polls Russia:
quote:
Latest Levada opinion poll on public mood in Russia:
October
36% want to “continue military operations” in Ukraine
57% want to “begin peace talks”
September
44% for continuing the offensive
48% for starting peace talks
Russia is extremely hard to poll accurately, as many people are afraid to answer pollsters' question honestly. Nevertheless, Levada has had an excellent reputation, and previous polls have shown high support for Putin and the war.
Commentary from @russia_watcher, who also polls Russia:
quote:
Our data from October shows that ~61% of Russian respondents would support reopening negotiations with UA. Like Levada, we saw an increase in the share of respondents supporting this option since the beginning of September. However, the increase we saw was smaller.
This more moderate increase may be in part due to how we phrase our question. We ask respondents to rate to what extent they’d support various policy options related to the “special military operation,” with negotiations being one of them.
We don’t frame this as an alternative to continuing the operation, but rather one of several different strategies that ppl can support/ oppose independently of each other. This may explain why we see a more moderate increase from Sep-Oct.
Our estimate of support for negations is also higher than Levada’s. However, our estimate of 62% excludes “don’t know” and “prefer not to answer” responses. If we include them, then we find that ~50% say they’d support negotiations, ~32% would oppose & ~18% DK/NA.
Levada’s October survey finds that ~57% support negotiations, while ~36% want to continue mil operations, and ~7% DK. While our questions differ in framing, these estimates of support for negotiation aren’t too far from each other.
This post was edited on 10/31/22 at 10:13 am
1
Posted on 10/31/22 at 11:34 am to GOP_Tiger
Interesting development underway in the Black Sea.
Ukraine/Turkey/UN have a convoy of grain ships that have departed Odessa and are heading south. Will Russia attack them???
https://twitter.com/economics/status/1586871086347845632
https://twitter.com/vcdgf555/status/1586956588409319424
https://twitter.com/ChuckPfarrer/status/1587108643585015814
Ukraine/Turkey/UN have a convoy of grain ships that have departed Odessa and are heading south. Will Russia attack them???
https://twitter.com/economics/status/1586871086347845632
quote:
Ukraine, Turkey and the UN agreed to have vessels carrying food from Ukrainian ports sail on Monday, even after Russia said it’s withdrawing from a deal to allow safe passage of Ukraine’s grain exports
https://twitter.com/vcdgf555/status/1586956588409319424
quote:
A ???? cargo ship (Ocean Legend) destined for Odessa, plus a ???? cargo (Admiral de Ribas) & ???? bulk carrier (Amyntor) destined for Turkey. All starting to move (5.5-7 knots each).
Reminder: these are transmitting openly & positions given via open-source means.
https://twitter.com/ChuckPfarrer/status/1587108643585015814
quote:
BLACK SEA SHOWDOWN: A grain convoy has left Odesa in defiance of a RU blockade. Proceeding south, the convoy posses a dilemma for Putin: does he attack merchant ships in international waters, or does he back down and permit UKR to resume grain shipments?
This post was edited on 10/31/22 at 11:37 am
Posted on 10/31/22 at 12:56 pm to Chromdome35
quote:
Russians fired at civilian tugboats transporting a barge with grain near Ochakiv, the Operational Command “South” reported. Two crew members were killed, and one with injuries was rescued. The fate of another one is not yet known.
https://twitter.com/Hromadske/status/1587116305789984771?s=20&t=8SLl2HuOjV8JWZ1u0gIngg
If true, this is a no-win situation for Vlad.
Posted on 10/31/22 at 1:12 pm to Chromdome35
quote:
Ukraine/Turkey/UN have a convoy of grain ships that have departed Odessa and are heading south. Will Russia attack them???
Captain's arse is probably puckered tighter than a snare drum.
Posted on 10/31/22 at 1:36 pm to OMLandshark
quote:
quote:
I'll bet you $100 right now that wheat is below $1,200 on November 1st. Want to take that bet?
Don’t know the exact price of wheat, but it being high enough where many can’t afford it and there are mass riots in Europe, done.
Bump.
I should have bet you a $1,000, OMLandshark. Even with the soft spike over the last few days, wheat is still cheaper than it was on October 10th, the precise day I told you that you were an idiot and that I'd be bumping this in 3 weeks. It is also much cheaper than it was in the summer and only about 10% more expensive than it was at the same time last year - largely attributable to inflation, as every other commodity as gone up during that same time.
You going to own up to being wrong as frick?
Posted on 10/31/22 at 1:48 pm to OMLandshark
quote:
And my food shortages prediction has been at the end of October and at best the beginning of November. No my friend, the train is on schedule.
Where we at with regard to food shortages and the mass riots in Europe?
Posted on 10/31/22 at 1:49 pm to AbuTheMonkey
Fantastic bump.
Posted on 10/31/22 at 1:50 pm to AbuTheMonkey
OML dipped when he realized he was banking on a Kim Dotcom tweet and the timeline was all wrong.
Solovyov asks guest "Are you proposing for us to take Washington?". There is a whole lotta crazy in this new Russian TV clip.
Twitter
Solovyov asks guest "Are you proposing for us to take Washington?". There is a whole lotta crazy in this new Russian TV clip.
Posted on 10/31/22 at 1:55 pm to OMLandshark
You seriously need to get laid kid. Or at least I hope you’re a kid because if you’re an adult then that’s just really really sad. Now I’ll wait for you to call me a genocidal warmonger. Hey by the way, how’s all of Europe starving and freezing to death going?
Posted on 10/31/22 at 3:06 pm to Obtuse1
quote:
Solovyov asks guest "Are you proposing for us to take Washington?". There is a whole lotta crazy in this new Russian TV clip.
The discussion of Trump was a kick in the nads.
Posted on 10/31/22 at 4:03 pm to SlimTigerSlap
quote:
Captain's arse is probably puckered tighter than a snare drum.
Russia isn’t going to sink a merchant ship in a convoy protected by Turkey and the UN. Turkey’s navy is probably stronger than Russia’s and its Air Force would wipe the skies clean of Russian air craft. The most the Russians do is fire a warning shot to try to get a ship to stop and be directed to a Russian port to be interned.
Posted on 10/31/22 at 4:22 pm to WeeWee
quote:
quote:
Captain's arse is probably puckered tighter than a snare drum.
Russia isn’t going to sink a merchant ship in a convoy protected by Turkey and the UN. Turkey’s navy is probably stronger than Russia’s and its Air Force would wipe the skies clean of Russian air craft. The most the Russians do is fire a warning shot to try to get a ship to stop and be directed to a Russian port to be interned.
And people scream during horror movies. Logic rarely defeats fear.
Posted on 10/31/22 at 4:33 pm to Slippy
quote:
Proceeding south, the convoy posses a dilemma for Putin: does he attack merchant ships in international waters, or does he back down and permit UKR to resume grain shipments?
Also, if Russia fires on a ship bearing a Turkey flag, does that invoke Article 5 of NATO?
Posted on 10/31/22 at 4:36 pm to SlimTigerSlap
quote:
The discussion of Trump was a kick in the nads.
Yeah, that was disturbing. Trump gave them “a four-year breather?” WTF? Need more details.
Posted on 10/31/22 at 4:38 pm to Kentucker
quote:
Also, if Russia fires on a ship bearing a Turkey flag, does that invoke Article 5 of NATO?
It would give Turkey the opportunity to invoke Article 5.
Posted on 10/31/22 at 4:43 pm to Kentucker
I was all over, but you just showed something really not representative.
And there is no bigger Ukrainian supporter than me FWIW.
SLAVA UKRAINI!
And there is no bigger Ukrainian supporter than me FWIW.
SLAVA UKRAINI!
Posted on 10/31/22 at 5:00 pm to Kentucker
quote:
Yeah, that was disturbing. Trump gave them “a four-year breather?” WTF? Need more details.
They may have been referring to Trump reducing the sanctions imposed by the Obama administration following the invasion of Crimea. Also, I recall the Russians generally viewing Trump as favorable to Russia's interests in Europe by what was seen as Trump taking positions to weaken the western alliance. Whether their view was objectively true or not, it's hard to say. But it is apparent that the Russians viewed it that way.
Posted on 10/31/22 at 6:03 pm to Eurocat
quote:
I was all over, but you just showed something really not representative.
No worries. I passed along a pic from Denys Davydov. He’s on Telegram. You should take it up with him.
SLAVA UKRAINII
Posted on 10/31/22 at 6:13 pm to WeeWee
If Russia tries to interdict the convoys I expect mine warfare rather than overt naval combat.
Posted on 10/31/22 at 6:16 pm to TBoy
An I wrong? I thought Trump increased military aid to Ukraine.
This post was edited on 10/31/22 at 6:55 pm
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