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Message
re: Latest Updates: Russia-Ukraine Conflict
Posted on 10/19/22 at 9:28 pm to LegendInMyMind
Posted on 10/19/22 at 9:28 pm to LegendInMyMind
quote:
Ukraine terrorist state will lose.
I'm ignorant. Can you please explain to me, in detail, how Ukraine is a terrorist state?
Thanks, I'll hang up and listen.
Jesus, people....

Posted on 10/19/22 at 9:37 pm to magildachunks
quote:Ah. That's the source of all the cockiness. Good to know.
Y'all need to back away from the apocalyptic ledge y'all are living on. Russia would be lucky to get any nukes to hit a target in the lower 48 states.
BTW, who was flying us to the International Space Station again?
Based on Pentagon based analysis, here's a summary of the "weapons which would be lucky to hit any of the lower 48."
ICBMs aren't even the most dangerous though. The largest nuclear bomb ever tested was the Tzar Bomb at 56 megatons. Russia can swim LINK ]these 100 megaton 'doomsday' SOBs into any port, or right up to the Watergate Steps on the Potomac.
FYI:
August 14, 2012
Russian nuclear submarine visits Gulf of Mexico undetected
A Russian Akula-class nuclear attack submarine sailed undetected in the Gulf of Mexico for weeks, and was only discovered after it left. ( LINK)
March 8, 2022
NORTHCOM needs better sensors to protect against Russian submarine, missile threat ( LINK)
October 3, 2022
Russian nuclear submarine armed with 'doomsday' weapon disappears from Arctic harbor ( LINK)
Posted on 10/19/22 at 9:37 pm to facher08
Actual war update from Rybar (Russian)
https://t.me/rybar/40432

https://t.me/rybar/40432
quote:
Chronicle of a special military operation
for October 19, 2022
At noon, the Russian Armed Forces again attacked Ukraine's critical infrastructure. Several targets were hit, including the Ladyzhynska TPP in Vinnitsa and the Burshtynska TPP in Ivano-Frankivsk Oblast.
Due to the systematic fire impact, the Ukrainian energy system is losing stability: on October 20, the authorities planned a temporary power outage throughout the country.
??Border territories of the Russian Federation:
??In the afternoon, Ukrainian formations shelled Belgorod, shells fell on one of the infrastructure facilities and did not cause serious damage. The Armed Forces of Ukraine also hit the town of Shebekino in the Belgorod region: two civilians were seriously injured.
??Starobelsk direction (map):
??In the Kupyansky section of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, the forces of the 14th brigade and the 233rd battalion of the 128th troop brigade are trying to gain a foothold in Kislovka. The enemy defense units suffered significant losses.
??The Ukrainian command is waiting for the Russian Armed Forces to attack the Sinkovka-Zagoruykovka line from Gorobievka. Sappers of the 14th brigade of the Armed Forces of Ukraine mined the approaches to settlements, several tanks were sent to Sinkovka.
??At the Limano-Svatovsky sector, the Armed Forces of Ukraine continue to accumulate resources for an offensive on Svatovo and Kremennaya. A mobile sabotage group is operating at the turn of Terna-Nevskoye with the task of aiming artillery and MLRS at Russian rear facilities.
??Ukrainian Armed Forces are trying in small groups to cross the Zherebets River near Makiivka. Soldiers of the 3rd motorized rifle division of the RF Armed Forces thwarted all enemy attempts to create a foothold, and also shot down a Ukrainian combat helicopter.
??Soledar direction (map):
??Units of the 54th brigade of the Armed Forces of Ukraine tried to recapture the territory of the asphalt plant near Bakhmut. The Wagner PMC fighters repulsed the attack, Ukrainian troops suffered serious losses.
??Due to the threat of breaking through the defense by Wagner PMC detachments, the enemy command transferred units of the 53rd mechanized brigade to the city and located to the south of Andreevka.
??APU units continue to arrive at Chasov Yar. By October 25, the Ukrainian command plans to create a group of about 10 thousand people in the direction.
??Luhansk region:
??Ukrainian formations attacked Popasna from the HIMARS MLRS.
??Donetsk direction:
??There are no significant changes in the front line near Donetsk. Soldiers of the NM DPR are fighting in the area of ??the Donetsk airport and hit enemy DRGs trying to enter the advanced Russian positions.
??Ukrainian formations again shelled Donetsk, Yasinovataya, Makeevka, Yelenovka and other settlements of the Donetsk agglomeration.
??Zaporozhye direction:
??Early in the morning, Ukrainian MLRS HIMARS launched a missile attack on the building of the city administration of Energodar.
??Southern Front: Nikolaevsko-Berislavsky section (map)
??In the Berislav sector of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, the assault groups of the 128th brigade, 60th brigade, 28th brigade and 17th brigade launched an attack on the positions of the Russian Armed Forces near Sukhanovo and Polyanka.
??Units of the Russian Armed Forces repulsed the attack, Ukrainian formations lost more than 10 pieces of equipment. Russian servicemen captured a group of Ukrainian fighters and seized several captured armored vehicles.
??At the Posad-Pokrovsky sector, units of the Russian Airborne Forces repelled an attempt to break through an armored group of the Armed Forces of Ukraine near Pravdino, destroying two enemy infantry fighting vehicles with anti-tank guided missiles.

Posted on 10/19/22 at 9:40 pm to Chromdome35
More from Rybar discussing the strikes on Ukraine's energy infrastructure
https://t.me/rybar/40433

https://t.me/rybar/40433
quote:
Russian Armed Forces strikes on Ukraine’s energy system on October 19, 2022 — Rybar’s analysis
Rybar's team continues daily analysis of the consequences of systemic fire destruction of Ukrainian energy system facilities.
??Verified Hits:
??Burshtynska TPP - autotransformers hit. Located in Ivano-Frankivsk, the thermal power plant feeds western Ukraine, as well as Transcarpathia and the Carpathians. Depending on the severity of the damage, the entire southwest of the country could face significant power shortages.
??Ladyzhynska TPP - the object was hit by three missiles, the exact amount of damage is unknown. Together with the cascade on the Dnieper, TPPs feed the entire south-west of the country, and the complete decommissioning of the facility will lead to an increase in the load on the network and a shortage of electricity in the region.
??About power outages
The Ukrainian authorities announced on October 20 a rolling blackout in all regions, which will last from 7:00 to 23:00. People were urged to reduce their electricity consumption as much as possible. Street lighting will also be limited.
According to the Deputy Head of the Office of the President Kyrylo Tymoshenko, if you do not reduce energy consumption, you will have to switch to temporary power outages. First of all, enterprises should reduce electricity consumption.
The Ukrainian energy system is experiencing a shortage of both generating and transmission capacities. Autotransformers at substations and thermal power plants were hit by blows. And the hydroelectric power stations, apparently, have been transferred to the maximum generation of electricity, but there is nothing to compensate for the morning and evening peaks of consumption.
??So far, it is impossible to confirm the degree of damage to the power system in 30-40%, as they say in Kyiv. However, the damage has already been done very serious, although not enough for a complete collapse.
Strikes on the 750 kV and 330 kV outdoor switchgear of the remaining three NPPs can quickly cause critical damage to the power system. But at the same time they will have strong political costs.
Continued strikes on substations and thermal power plants will achieve the same effect. At the same time, they will require more time and more missiles.

Posted on 10/19/22 at 9:42 pm to Chromdome35
Rybar on Kherson
https://t.me/rybar/40430

https://t.me/rybar/40430
quote:
The situation in the Nikolaevsko-Berislavsky direction
as of 22.00 October 19, 2022
??On the Posad-Pokrovsky sector, the command of 59 motorized infantry and 28 mechanized brigades are preparing to attack Russian positions.
??As part of this, artillery shells were delivered to the advanced ammunition depots in Lyubomovka and Limany. And in Novogrigovka and Kirovo there are AN / TPQ-50 counter-battery radars.
??On the evening of October 19, the Armed Forces of Ukraine once again tried to break into the Russian defensive formations near Pravdino with the help of one armored group of 3 infantry fighting vehicles. However, the soldiers of the 56th air assault regiment destroyed two armored vehicles from ATGMs. The attack was repulsed.
??At the Andreevsko-Berislavsky sector, the Armed Forces of Ukraine are restoring the combat capability of units after the morning assault.
??The command staff of the 17th tank brigade held a regular meeting in Ukrainka to plan further actions in the Kherson direction.
Immediately after that, the 1st and 3rd companies of one of the battalions of the formation were sent to Chervonoe and Novogrigorovka, and the rest of the units were transferred to the Novaya Kamenka area.
??Due to the high activity of Russian aviation, the Osa air defense system of the 39th anti-aircraft missile regiment of the Armed Forces of Ukraine was deployed in Zolotaya Balka and north of Dudchan, and MANPADS crews were deployed in Davydov Brod.
??To complete the 60th infantry brigade of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, 22 units of military equipment with personnel, ammunition and fuel arrived in the Chervonoy area.
??Ukrainian UAV crews, including the Bayraktar TB2, are reconnaissance of the positions of the Russian Armed Forces in the area of ??Zamozhny, Sukhanovo, Chervony Yar, Pyatikhatok and Aleksandrovka.
Map in high resolution

Posted on 10/19/22 at 9:43 pm to Chromdome35
Rybar on Eastern Front
https://t.me/rybar/40431

https://t.me/rybar/40431
quote:
The situation in the Starobilsk direction
by the end of October 19, 2022
??In the Kupyansky section of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, the forces of the 14th brigade and the 233rd battalion of the 128th troop brigade are trying to gain a foothold in Kislovka. The enemy does not have confident control over the settlement.
??During the offensive, Ukrainian territorial defense units suffered significant losses. In the vicinity of Petropavlovka, assault groups are being replenished.
??Russian troops are conducting a massive shelling of strongholds of the Armed Forces of Ukraine along the line of contact.
??The Ukrainian command expects an active offensive of the RF Armed Forces on the Sinkovka-Zagoruykovka line from Gorobievka. Sappers of the 14th ombr of the Armed Forces of Ukraine mined the approaches to settlements, several tanks were sent to Sinkovka.
??At the Limano-Svatovsky sector, the Armed Forces of Ukraine continue to accumulate resources for the offensive on Svatovo and Kremennaya.
??In the settlements and cities of Gusinka, Kondrashovka, Vishnevka, Tishchenovka, Poydunovka, Izyum, Liman, Shchurovo and Borovaya, consolidated detachments of foreign mercenaries are deployed.
??To "probe" the defense of the RF Armed Forces at the turn of Terna - Nevsky, a mobile sabotage group is operating, its main task is to aim artillery and MLRS at Russian rear facilities.
??The Armed Forces of Ukraine deployed several artillery pieces and MLRS launchers to the area west of Raygorodok.
Map in high resolution

Posted on 10/19/22 at 9:45 pm to Chromdome35
Rybar on Bakhmut front
https://t.me/rybar/40428

https://t.me/rybar/40428
quote:
The situation in the Soledar direction
as of 21.00 October 19, 2022
??In the Bakhmut area, the assault detachments of the Wagner PMC continue fighting in the southeastern outskirts of Bakhmut and in the Experimental area.
??Formations of 54 brigades of the Armed Forces of Ukraine tried to recapture the territory of the asphalt plant. The attack was repulsed, Ukrainian troops suffered serious losses.
??Several battalions of the 54th brigade were withdrawn to Konstantinovka for resupplying with personnel trained in foreign training centers.
Units of the Armed Forces of Ukraine continue to arrive in Chasov Yar. According to the plans of the Soledar operational-tactical group, by October 25, it is planned to create a grouping in two settlements of about 10 thousand people.
??Due to the threat of breaking through the defense by the Wagner PMC detachments, units of the 53rd mechanized brigade of the Armed Forces of Ukraine were transferred to the city. And reserves arrived in the Andreevka area.
??Brigade artillery groups of the 30th and 53rd OMBs are firing barrage at the offensive areas of the Russian Armed Forces in Ivangrad, Veselaia Dolina, Otradovka, Zaitsevo, Kurdyumovka.
Map in high resolution

Posted on 10/19/22 at 9:48 pm to Chromdome35
Chuck Pfaffer on Kherson area (Source tends to exagerate)
https://twitter.com/ChuckPfarrer/status/1582354623100506113

https://twitter.com/ChuckPfarrer/status/1582354623100506113
quote:
KHERSON/1250 UTC 18 OCT/ UKR launched 22 aviation strikes targeting 18 Russsian troop & logistical concentrations and 3 RU air defense complexes across all axes of contact. UKR air defense interdicted 38 of 43 Iranian-made Shahed-136 suicide drones, an interception rate of 88%.
Posted on 10/19/22 at 9:51 pm to Chromdome35
Haunting reminders of V1's over London
Video at link, make sure sound is on
https://twitter.com/PaulSzoldra/status/1582863719905734657
Video at link, make sure sound is on
https://twitter.com/PaulSzoldra/status/1582863719905734657
quote:
Here's what it sounds like when an Iranian Shahed drone is coming in. Video sent by a western volunteer in Mykolaiv, taken about 20 minutes ago.
"They burn more than they explode. That's why they use them to target infrastructure," he tells me.
This post was edited on 10/19/22 at 9:51 pm
Posted on 10/19/22 at 9:52 pm to Chromdome35
WoW! Video of Russian cruise missile being shot down right before it gets to its target.
Video at link
https://twitter.com/RALee85/status/1582882236893868032
Video at link
https://twitter.com/RALee85/status/1582882236893868032
quote:
Another video of the Russian Kh-101 cruise missile shot down yesterday near the TETs-6 power plant. 2/
Posted on 10/19/22 at 9:58 pm to NC_Tigah
quote:
FYI:
August 14, 2012
Russian nuclear submarine visits Gulf of Mexico undetected
A Russian Akula-class nuclear attack submarine sailed undetected in the Gulf of Mexico for weeks, and was only discovered after it left. ( LINK)
March 8, 2022
NORTHCOM needs better sensors to protect against Russian submarine, missile threat ( LINK)
October 3, 2022
Russian nuclear submarine armed with 'doomsday' weapon disappears from Arctic harbor ( LINK)
It's hard to know what to make of the Russian submarine threat. While the rest of Russia's military has gone to waste in the post-Soviet era (apparently), the sub force was kept up "OK". That said, it wasn't kept up great, and the US largely left them alone to focus on the blue water Navy buildup in China following Clinton-era defense budget cuts. Reference: The 2009 and 2012 incidents you link.
Unknowns: With Russia saber-rattling, is the USN ok with ignoring China for a while (not blue water capable... yet) to focus back on tracking Russian subs on an individual basis? Can Russia fully use it's sub force, or can it only afford to send out a few Akulas and Borreis at a time?
(and if Russia launches the best bet is from the arctic - the ice sheet is a fairly good disrupter of acoustics...they surely aren't parking an SSBN in the Gulf)
Posted on 10/19/22 at 10:17 pm to Chromdome35
It was much better when Rybar was at least able to pretend to report some truth.
Posted on 10/19/22 at 10:22 pm to notiger1997
yea, but right now he's about all thats out there. There isn't a lot of activity in the social media sphere. Even some of the normal mappers are taking breaks.
Posted on 10/19/22 at 10:48 pm to Chromdome35
quote:
There isn't a lot of activity in the social media sphere. Even some of the normal mappers are taking breaks.
The lack of change to the lines and apparent overall slower OpTempo in the actual fighting is one of the reasons there has been so much thread creep here in the last few days. I could post all day long from WarMonitor3 but I could also just make stuff up with just as much confidence that it is accurate. The video of individual tanks/BMPs/arty getting hit just don't capture the imagination like they did months ago which Rob Lee has a lot of. Now the interest is in missiles and suicide drones being intercepted.
Posted on 10/19/22 at 11:02 pm to Obtuse1
Obtuse1, Ukraine has a blackout on info regarding Kherson Front at present.
Posted on 10/19/22 at 11:10 pm to CitizenK
quote:
"The Russians have been saying on social media for weeks that the 63rd Mechanised Brigade, the Ukrainian 63rd, have been completely destroyed – they don't exist anymore. Well believe me, they do exist and they're doing pretty well.
"We won't talk about what they're doing, but they're doing well and they're moving quite quickly."
Professor Clarke said moves by UK Defence Secretary Ben Wallace to meet his counterpart in the US at the last moment is another sign "something is happening".
He said: "We don't really know what it is – but clearly the Russians are talking about withdrawing civilians from Kherson, by which they mean the Russians who want to go and those Russians who may have collaborated with the authorities – and there are queues building up for the ferries.
"Clearly, the Russians are preparing to do one of two things in Kherson. Either to withdraw their troops, or to fight for it. We don't know which."
Professor Clarke said a second front, on the northeast, is "very active".
He added: "Of course, the offensive that the Ukrainians launched at the end of August goes on. They have liberated Kharkiv, and the battle is all about Kremina."
Professor Clarke said the battle is for the P66, the highway north of Kremina that Russia uses to supply its troops.
"There's some really active fighting going on here, of course all our attention is in Kherson, that is strategically more important," he said. "But an awful lot of people are fighting ferociously at the moment for the P66.
"This war is entering a new phase. As we head towards the winter, the Ukrainians are making a big push to get their gains nailed down before the weather closes in and makes the operation a bit more difficult for them."
LINK
Posted on 10/20/22 at 12:56 am to LegendInMyMind
I’ve been trying to get him to answer that same question for a long time now. He doesn’t have an answer and says he doesn’t recognize the premise of the question.
Posted on 10/20/22 at 1:12 am to Kentucker
quote:Fiona Hill states that Putin is capable of using nuclear weapons / releases and will do so under the right circumstances.
Question for the posters: If Russia blows up the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant in the face of the Uke offensive, will that warrant troops on the ground from NATO? The effects of the destroyed NPP would directly affect many NATO countries. Russia knows this. Would it count as an act of war against NATO?
I have to think that NATO and the US have made a great effort to be absolutely clear to the Russian leadership that any nuclear release in the area from any source will be considered a Russian nuclear terrorist act. That would be followed by a conventional attack by NATO forces on every level of Russian military in Ukraine and the Black Sea.
This actually would be a very good thing as it would end the war in a matter of days. I have no source to back this up, not that this level of information would be available, but anything less than communication of this sort would be an invitation to Putin to use nuclear weapons or nuclear 'devices' of supposedly unknown sources.
While on this topic, there is another concern that the Iranians will be receiving or have received critical assistance in the creation of a nuclear weapon system from the Russians. That may have been the reason the UK Defence Minister flew to DC this week and why we see a B2 land in Poland.
Maybe someone should call the Israelis and ask them what's up in Tehran.
This post was edited on 10/20/22 at 2:27 am
Posted on 10/20/22 at 6:18 am to Coeur du Tigre
Reading in the NYT that Russia has lost 6k pieces of equipment. Regardless of the final disposition of the borders, Russia will not recover from this failure in a generation.
NYT
quote:
The Russian military has suffered a loss of equipment and soldiers that would have broken most armies in Europe. A U.S. government report said last week that the Russians had lost 6,000 pieces of equipment. Estimates of Russian casualties run into the thousands. But a key strength across generations of the Russian Army is to bring up more equipment and more soldiers at even desperate moments. Despite the losses, American officials say that Russia and Mr. Putin appear ready to keep fighting. But there are limits.
NYT
Posted on 10/20/22 at 6:24 am to NC_Tigah
quote:
This war is entering a new phase. As we head towards the winter, the Ukrainians are making a big push to get their gains nailed down before the weather closes in and makes the operation a bit more difficult for them."
To me this is crazy just how much the conversation had changed from how much territory will Ukraine lose to how much territory will Russia hold on to
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